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For what it is worth. KDogg is higher on my list at this point because of how hard he is coming down on me.
same here. he is all over me for being quiet but fails to mention the two people who the inspector says are mafia for being quiet. when our post count are neck and neck number wise. I just find it kind of strange.
Mr. Forward 39 Mike D 37 NothingButFlowers 35 lovelucklaughter 20 baconus66 19 nodepression 18 noage123 15 superfurryanimal 11 Kelaroo 11 jhammett 10 ☮ superbek ☮ 9 higgi 7 quacker 3 fawnmart 2 keets 2 JR 1 EAP 1
Post by NothingButFlowers on May 2, 2011 10:52:56 GMT -5
LLL, I'm not following your logic in those posts. I think maybe where we differ is that I don't think first round votes are all that telling, and I know for a fact that sometimes mafia members will vote for each other, which I don't think you are taking into consideration in those posts.
Bacon, I'll give you that it's very early for a fake inspector to be coming out. I'm not good with numbers, so I was trying to figure out if it's totally unrealistic to do it this early, but I'm not sure I can. As far as noage being conservative, wouldn't he intentionally try to change up his game play, especially if he was mafia last game. (Also, I will note that it would be quite a coincidence for both of you to be mafia twice in a row, but stranger things have happened.)
I've gone back and reread the game, and I can't decide if this is appropriate suspicion or if I'm just resistant to being told something and expected to believe it. I think I'm getting stuck on the idea of asking about higgi in the first night. It's a somewhat reasonable explanation, but I just didn't see higgi as being particularly suspicious in Day 1, other than his quietness, and to try a strategy of just picking quiet players until you happen across the quiet mafia member seems like quite a gamble for the inspector because you could end up randomly guessing for days and not hit on the right person.
Well I would think he would be more likely to try to remain consistent to his prior playing still to avoid detection. Especially since his lay-low strategy basically won the game for us. I specifically try to play exactly the same way no matter what role I am.
Post by LoveLuckLaughter on May 2, 2011 10:59:55 GMT -5
As stated, I am making assumptions on what would be typical human behavior. When unpressed I wouldn't expect members of the same social group to vote against each other if they are aware of one another . I know this is a game, but there are humans playing the game, so there will always be typical human behavior, especially when there is not need to contrive for safety reasons. No one was threatened, no one was pressed to try to throw off suspicion just yet. So I think that it is more natural to go with instinctual human behavior. And it all seems to fit with how the game has gone.
There are a few variables that can throw off the curve. But I'm sticking with it for now.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
Post by LoveLuckLaughter on May 2, 2011 11:02:12 GMT -5
I am making a lot of assumptions here. I am also assuming that the two dead players are not Mafia. But the truth is we could have snuffed one of them out right off.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
I am making a lot of assumptions here. I am also assuming that the two dead players are not Mafia. But the truth is we could have snuffed one of them out right off.
I would make the same assumption. When bacon changed his vote to jhamm, I say that "I think it's a good move". This is because SFA is voting for LLL, but now that I know Higgi is mafia and he voted for jhamm I am going to assume we killed off a townie.
I was kind of hoping no one saw that so I could stay hidden for another guess but since SFA probably did, I am the inspector and SFA and Higgi are mafia. That is the reason I voted Higgi into the runoff. Since he was going to kill Bacon (who is clearly innocent based on his vote), I decided to intervene. Not sure if this is the best strategy as inspector as this is only my third game (and 1st as inspector) but at least you guys get two of the mafia names.
THis is ridiculous and it only further supports my idea that you and BACON are working together.
A fake inspector claim is my guess here - saving Bacon by coming out as the inspector while at the same time pointing blame on two innocent people and causing mass confusion.
As stated, I am making assumptions on what would be typical human behavior. When unpressed I wouldn't expect members of the same social group to vote against each other if they are aware of one another . I know this is a game, but there are humans playing the game, so there will always be typical human behavior, especially when there is not need to contrive for safety reasons. No one was threatened, no one was pressed to try to throw off suspicion just yet. So I think that it is more natural to go with instinctual human behavior. And it all seems to fit with how the game has gone.
There are a few variables that can throw off the curve. But I'm sticking with it for now.
But mafia members definitely will vote against one another because the whole point of the game is to root out mafia members, so they know from the start that there is a reason to hide and throw off suspicion from the very start of the game.
I'm conflicted. On the one hand, it just seems too easy to accept that noage is the inspector and just go with it. I figured out the numbers, and if there are still 3 mafia left (which we seem to have been assuming there are), then it's really not too early for a fake inspector to come out. If noage is not the inspector and we kill higgi today and SFA tomorrow, and mafia kills innocent players both tonight and tomorrow night, then they've won. The big question mark is overnight tonight. Depending on what happens tonight, we have to have a whole other discussion tomorrow about whether noage is mafia or inspector. Presumably, if he's the inspector, mafia shouldn't take the chance of leaving him alive, but at the same time, they would not want to confirm for the townsfolk that he was the inspector, so they would have to leave him alive. If he is mafia, they would want to keep him around to win sooner, but it's not unheard of for mafia to make a sacrifice to make him look more believable (although the time I was mafia and we tried that, it was a disaster).
Deleting posts seems shady to me, and the whole being outed as inspector seems a little contrived, but maybe I'm just overthinking. Noage's post to kdogg in the first round about kdogg reading too much into the first round votes is the thing that most makes me think he might be telling the truth. Because the player he's now saying is mafia is one of the few players that kdogg was not pointing fingers at early on in the game.
LLL, I wonder if you are suspicious of me and kdogg because we both expressed some suspicion towards you. I'm not saying kdogg's not mafia because I'm not at all convinced of that. But I do know that I am not, so I know that my instinct is to start to get defensive when people start telling me why they think I am. I'm also not saying that I am convinced of your innocence, but I am not convinced of your guilt either.
And my, you people are selectively reading my posts. You all have noticed that I was bringing up SFA's name as a potential guilty player earlier than most of you, and was pushing for his inclusion in a runoff amongst the other Day One vote stackers, right? If I were in cahoots with SFA, do you really think I would have brought something up to bring suspicion upon him during the very first round of the game?
Look, I'm sorry my "seven questions" post was inadequate for most of you. Again, I think you're practicing selective reading in a panicked rush after this turn of events. In my defense, I am reminding you people that I wrote that post when I had 10-15 minutes to kill waiting for my friends in Milwaukee on Friday. On a Droid X. I don't get a fancy ProBoards app from the Market like you iPhoners, sorry. The browser kinda sucks, especially trying to scroll up/down to revisit questions. Look at the question I did ask SFA: I hope you realize that I have been harboring similar questions about him, but was not certain enough about them to yet make them public. I'd done some thinking along similar lines to NBF, but I wasn't sure enough about it to bring it up in public. If y'all think I share every thought I have about Mafia games the moment I have it, you're sadly mistaken. Anyway, I asked questions of every player, on the fly. I have yet to see any of you directly question every other player. If you did, I doubt you would come up with seven questions of equal difficulty/quality on the fly to an observer. I might as well have asked the same question to Higgi as I did Kel. They were both just as absent. It's just that Kel stuck out to me, because it isn't traditionally Higgi who copies&pastes the post total into a game; it wasn't Higgi being the hypocrite about his traditional issue that stuck out to me. Furthermore, I think my weakest questions went to the players who had said the least. You people won't give me the benefit of the doubt on the fact that the quietest people don't always give you the most material to work with?
I honestly don't know about the claims that have been made. I saw LLL mention something briefly about a deleted post last night. I thought about addressing it, but that would have made a quadruple post for me. A deleted post, without reference to its contents, raised no red flags for me. In my experience (I've been involved in all games save one since Mafia VIII) the number of times I've seen this happen, I could easily count on one hand. It has happened two or three times, and it seems to me that when it does happen, it is not so much a sign of guilt as something that a Mafia grabs onto and uses to off an innocent. Granted, I'm talking about your normal deleted post here. A deleted post claiming to be Inspector is an entirely different thing. I did see that the deleted post in question was posted on the 29th. That's the day I went to Milwaukee until evening and worked 9pm-2am. I wasn't even aware of that deleted post until I saw a reference to it late last night.
Which brings me to the post in question. There's definitely more at stake with a deleted post claiming to be Inspector.
I think the question everyone needs to ask themself when pondering the plausibility of noage's claim: Who would you have guessed about in Day One, had you been Inspector? Would Higgi have been your top guess? Would he even have been in your top three? I would imagine that either myself (wordy) or Bacon (vote-changey) would be in everyone's top three here, except in self-reflexive instances; not to mention that runoff survivors are also a relatively safe candidate for an ask.
I would null my vote so we can discuss this further, but part of the reason I sent Bacon into this runoff is precisely because he sent someone into a runoff & then changed his vote closer to the deadline. I'm not going to do the same thing for which I am suspecting him. Not for the moment, at least.
(That's right, haters: I'm not nulling my vote to save Higgi while he leads in votes. Suck on that )
1. noage is Inspector & telling the truth. Mafia = SFA, Higgi, and ______. There is already healthy discussion of this underway.
2. noage is Mafia & lying. With whom would he be in cahoots? I believe LLL or Kel would be most likely. Mafia have an incentive to be rid of their usual voting partners: they make the game increasingly difficult for them as it progresses.
I am making a lot of assumptions here. I am also assuming that the two dead players are not Mafia. But the truth is we could have snuffed one of them out right off.
It seems as if y'all have just taken NoAge's inspector claim for truth, which will most definitely make you lose the game.
Thinking objectively, the two dead so far are likely not mafia, but quite possibly, one could have been the REAL inspector.
Is it not strange that the supposed "inspector" has saved Bacon at least 3-4 times from being voted dead?
Alright, Mike D forgot his computer (and therefor smiley access) at work. So instead of posting a non smiley death scene I will close voting once I am in the office tomorrow. There also seems to be enough discussion, and currently one voter left, so this round will remain open until roughly 9-10 am central. FYI once I get the time at work this round will end then, no further warnings will be given prior to the end of the day. I will update the tally though.
***EDIT*** This tally is goofed up as you will see below, but I will leave it as posted.
I think we need to consider NoAge's claims against another potential Inspector scenario, and decide for ourselves which is more plausible. With that being the case, I present to the jury of the Townspeople:
Inspector Bek: A (Hypothetical?) Scenario Day One begins. Bek goes about her Mafia routine, casting her vote for her usual voting partner kdogg.
The vote tally winds up looking like this when I made my appeal to Bek:
I proposed to Bek a few possible courses of action, from safest to riskiest. My preferred course of action? That Bek & I cast our votes along with the players going into the runoff: JHammett & lovelucklaughter. At no point did I make specific recommendations as to which runoff candidate's side to take in the matter, nor which person voting for the runoff candidate to vote against. I would have left that entirely up to her. Bek uncharacteristically dismissed this with "TLDR." I somehow doubt she did not read this. I am starting to think she read this, considered its implications, and declined to act - without wishing to state her reason. In many cases, I feel Bek would have taken me up on this. I can understand why an Inspector having either of these names would not want to do this: 1. This arrangement would have doubled the voting power of a known Mafia. 2. A player for whom a known Mafia would vote is most likely to be innocent; as such, at least one - if not two - innocents would be dragged into the situation. 3. Increasing the # of candidates in a two-way runoff, in which a Mafia member is already a candidate, actually decreases the likelihood of that Mafia dying in the runoff. 4. She didn't trust me. I know this not to be the case because I know my role, but the rest of you out there may not trust me when I proclaim that I am a Townsperson. I personally know this is not true, but am including it in the interest of disclosure. (Would I be doing this if I were Mafia with something to lose?)
Bek was silent for two pages following her "TLDR" post. Could it be that she was trying to avoid further suspicion from Mafia by laying low?
Upon returning, Bek mentions the following players as suspicious in this post:
I don't think either one of these two are guilty. That is usually how it works the first round, two townspeople get set up so at least one if not two of the following people are mafia:
NBF NoD Bacon SFA
True, she says she doesn't think either one of those two are guilty. Wouldn't most Inspectors be similarly discrete about dealing with the Mafia whose name they drew? Calling out these names is Red Flag #1, if you're Mafia looking for an Inspector to off.
I also have an idea about another possible mafia member but it is too early to mention names until that person puts theirself out there a little more (or not at all).
BUT the fact of the matter remains that I HAVE to vote for jham or LLL and unfortunately due to my forgetfullness, I am now faced with the deciding vote which I absolutely loathe. I'm gonna do a little raw thinking out loud here, if you don't mind.
...
LLL - is hot... but all the pretty girls always get the breaks. However, my unmentioned possible mafia suspect voted for LLL and I don't necessarily want to vote WITH that person but said person may not even be mafia anyway. Additionally, this is her first game and in agreeance with kdogg, I would hate to see her go so early bc I like to see new people play and enjoy themselves and it also throws a curveball bc they are totally unpredictable and you will never know what their role is until the end.
If you were a Mafia, and had knowledge that Bek was correct about one of your own voting for LLL, would this not raise a red flag? Could this be interpreted as Inspector Bek threatening to ask about a player who had voted for LLL? Is this Mafia Red Flag #2?
In the immediate next post, she draws attention to Bacon's vote switch - which, curiously, benefited LLL:
My decision for changing my vote is this, if i didn't i was letting somebody who could possibly be mafia have the deciding vote. If I changed my vote I was 100% sure a towny had the decision.
I have used this strategy in the past.
So why wouldn't you just vote for jham to begin with if you plan to save him? Or wait to be the last to vote?
Also, you might know you're a townsperson, but we don't so why would you basically tie a noose around your neck?
Not that I'm complaining because I def did NOT want the deciding vote but just saying.... there are holes in your explanation imo. I mean, you do realize that you are the very reason LLL is in the run off to begin with, right?
...and, after Bacon explains himself, she responds:
Well my original vote for LLL was completely random and I probably wouldn't have voted for LLL had I remembered the voting arrangement LLL made. After it happened though I saw no reason to change. Now I do.
Also I think I have a pretty consistent record of doing something that makes me look suspicious in the first round.
Seems fair enough... for now.
"For now?" Here, Bek is implying she may change her mind about Bacon. Or is this an implied threat that Bek will ask about Bacon? Mafia Red Flag #4?
1. Superbek: I think your explanation about forgetting the game is a wee bit lame, and your remembering just in time to cast the last runoff vote is mighty convenient, especially since by the time you cast that vote, Bacon had changed and you didn't even have to cast the deciding vote.
I hear what you're saying and understand your suspicion but... you're wrong this time babe.
I rarely point things out in the first round unless they strike me as odd and this time it did. Bottom line is at least one of the vote stackers is a mafia member, would I have pointed that out if I was in fact a mafia member?
Also, I'm going to Memphis this weekend in case y'all missed the memo earlier... be back Tuesday.
All gaming aside, NBF can we PLEASE do lunch or drinks or something the next time you're in town? k thanx
Here, NBF explicitly brings up the timing of Bacon's vote change in relation to Bek's being the last vote. Bek seems pretty definitive in telling NBF that she is wrong. Did she say this out of knowing something that NBF (and the rest of us) didn't? Note that she reiterates that she seems to know one of the vote stackers is Mafia. Could this be Mafia Red Flag #5?
Bek cast her vote for LLL, and was the player whacked in Night One. Also worth noting: there was at least partial overlap between what JHammett had been saying and what Bek had been saying. Both of them also voted LLL, for what that's worth.
Earlier, Bek had resisted expanding the runoff. I find it possible this is because she was content to have one of those two players in the runoff. If she had the name of one of these two players, I can imagine that she would have been acting on the basis of having LLL's name. I can further imagine that Bek was particularly suspicious of Bacon because he changed his vote to save LLL. This suspicion found its way into her posts in a manner which could be interpreted as a threat to ask about Bacon overnight. That could very well be the Red Flag which got her whacked.
Anyway, since we know Bek died as an innocent, I think it is important that we at least consider this scenario and weigh its merits versus the claims made by NoAge.
I am not saying that this is actually what happened, but I think it is important that someone to play Devil's Advocate for the deceased - especially when all odds are that the deceased was innocent.
I want to know what people think of this hypothetical scenario; I think we should consider the merits of the "Bek = Inspector" argument against the merits of "NoAge = Inspector" argument while this round remains open.
I would appreciate feedback on this scenario versus its alternative.
Alright, Mike D forgot his computer (and therefor smiley access) at work. So instead of posting a non smiley death scene I will close voting once I am in the office tomorrow. There also seems to be enough discussion, and currently one voter left, so this round will remain open until roughly 9-10 am central. FYI once I get the time at work this round will end then, no further warnings will be given prior to the end of the day. I will update the tally though.
I voted for Bacon in the initial round. I never did null my vote, and stated as much:
I would null my vote so we can discuss this further, but part of the reason I sent Bacon into this runoff is precisely because he sent someone into a runoff & then changed his vote closer to the deadline. I'm not going to do the same thing for which I am suspecting him. Not for the moment, at least.
(That's right, haters: I'm not nulling my vote to save Higgi while he leads in votes. Suck on that )
I would appreciate it if the Referee kept an accurate count which did not have the potential to misrepresent players' actions or intentions.
That being said, I think my previous post makes for ample argument that discussion is still underway.
Hey, guys. I just got in from work so forgive me if some of this has already be discussed. I just wanted to answer questions directed at me before the round ends.
SFA, why were you so sure it was noage who had posted that he was the inspector?
Several reasons.
-I noticed that he voted Higgi into the runoff right after Higgi said that he wouldn't be on the internet all weekend. Was it because he wouldn't be around to defend himself?
-I didn't see the post but at the time LLL pointed out that it was deleted the tally was tied 2-2. I assume they were afraid Bacon might have gotten voted off since he has done some fairly suspicious stuff. Then rethought there strategy and decided to wait and see how the round played out?
- I found LLL's sudden turn on Higgi strange so I knew The deleted post had to be Noage, since Bacon is in a runoff.
- When LLL said that the person named Higgi and I, it clicked.
The Mafia is setting us up to get through round 3. They are exploiting my name being on Bek's post and the suspicions some have brought up concerning my vote stack on LLL. A situation I got into because of Bacon, I would like to add.
I'm telling you guys. Don't fall for this!
Last Edit: May 2, 2011 19:23:05 GMT -5 by Deleted - Back to Top
-I didn't see the post but at the time LLL pointed out that it was deleted the tally was tied 2-2. I assume they were afraid Bacon might have gotten voted off since he has done some fairly suspicious stuff. Then rethought there strategy and decided to wait and see how the round played out?
When the tally was 2-2, you are talking about the four players who sent Bacon & Higgi into the runoff? As in myself, Bacon, Higgi & NoAge? I know I didn't delete any posts there. That would narrow it down to three suspects - and I know Higgi wouldn't be outing himself like that.
- I found LLL's sudden turn on Higgi strange so I knew The deleted post had to be Noage, since Bacon is in a runoff.
I am probably not responding to this in the context in which you brought it up, but... I find NoAge's sudden turn on Higgi to be stranger than LLL turning on Higgi. There have been two about-face votes in this game. Bacon cast the first one to LLL's benefit; NoAge cast the second to Bacon's benefit. I'm starting to think my Bek scenario just might be right. I can't imagine any other circumstances which explain away both of these suspicious votes. NoAge's vote change doesn't explain away Bacon's vote change. Taken together, though, they make sense. If I think Bacon is suspicious for his vote change, I think NoAge is suspicious by association through his own vote change.
I seriously have a hard time buying NoAge's argument that he is the Inspector, which as I see it basically boils down to:
"So yeah, I suddenly decided to tell you I was the Inspector. Then deleted it. And said it again only after I got called out on it. I don't think kdogg, with all his rambling about pretty much everyone, was suspicious enough to ask about - even though the one time when I was Mafia, he was the first guy I whacked. Nor do I think Bacon was suspicious enough to ask about, even though he undid his vote sending a player into the runoff AND then cast the deciding vote to that player's benefit. Nothing to see there, so I just moved along. I couldn't have asked about LLL either; surely there's nothing suspicious about one of the players in the center of a vote-stacking discussion.... ...I mean, how can this vote stacking business be suspicious anyway? It's not like I have one of the vote stacker's names or anything, so that entire situation can't be relevant... Oh, by the way... the name I drew is one of the vote stackers: SFA. So I asked about Higgi. He was quiet, and it's not like other players were being quiet. It's not as if I went out of my way to create a graphic calling out Kelaroo for being quiet instead of him or anything at the time, either... I totally made one for Higgi too, I just deleted that at the time. Higgi, and only Higgi, was suspicious to me for being quiet. Pay no attention to the fact that Higgi voted the opposite way of the guy whose name I claim to have; that is not important either. I just thought I should mention that I am Inspector, now that Bacon - who did nothing suspicious at all worth asking about - is in trouble of being voted off. I'm going to have to be the second player, after Bacon himself, to make a suspicious vote change, but I can assure you we are not in cahoots. It is complete and total coincidence that the guy I voted into the runoff against Bacon just happens to be the guy that I am calling out here and now."
Oh, and by the way: I think it is common knowledge amongst the veterans that the player behind the most infamous/successful episode of False Inspector in Inforoo Mafia history is BACON.
And on that reasoning, I would assume that either NoD or SFA (is not both) are mafia bc they were the votes to put these peeps in the run off. Alternately, it could be NBF/NoD=mafia or Bacon/SFA=mafia but I think that would be too easy.
I also have an idea about another possible mafia member but it is too early to mention names until that person puts theirself out there a little more (or not at all).
LLL - is hot... but all the pretty girls always get the breaks. However, my unmentioned possible mafia suspect voted for LLL and I don't necessarily want to vote WITH that person but said person may not even be mafia anyway.
actually, bek mentions SFA then gets killed that same night. [/quote]
She also mentioned Bacon and highly implied you, then got killed that same might. If you remember, I was fairly dismissive to the idea of Bek's post meaning anything about you. I hope you will consider to do the same.
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