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Yeah, I see a couple ways this could go if the polls stays similar to what they are now(they likely won't). Bernie is sitting in a pretty good spot. The Dems are in danger of not solidifying behind an establishment pick. It's still going to come down to GOTV. Super Tuesday volunteering is ramping up. So much is riding on the South. Hope we don't fuck it up.... ahahahahahaha *vomits blood*
Yeah, I see a couple ways this could go if the polls stays similar to what they are now(they likely won't). Bernie is sitting in a pretty good spot. The Dems are in danger of not solidifying behind an establishment pick. It's still going to come down to GOTV. Super Tuesday volunteering is ramping up. So much is riding on the South. Hope we don't fuck it up.... ahahahahahaha *vomits blood*
just did a quick scan of polls in the southern states, biden is WAY up in all of them.
Yeah, he's still the frontrunner no question. I don't think anyone but Biden has a chance to sweep the South. Having said that I don't think Biden has the strength of the Clintons or Obama. The way I'm looking at it is taking into account the rise of Pete and how this sets up Super Tuesday. First, I'm of the belief that Pete isn't going to do well in the South no matter what. I could be wrong because Liberals do weird shit..... like have Biden polling number 1 for months.
If Warren doesn't regain her footing, because her and Pete are partially splitting the more Liberal wing of establishment voters, it does nothing but help Bernie. He won't pick up as much of her votes as Pete will but as long as she stays in the race those votes are dispersed and if she/ or Pete/ or Bernie don't get 15% in a state those delegates are reallocated to the top vote-getters. That's important this time around because it doesn't look like as many folks will drop out early.
In all likelihood Bernie takes at least IW or NH.... maybe both depending on how Pete does. Bernie will likely come in at least second in NV.... although they've targeted that state hard and he could very well win it.
If we go into South Carolina with Biden winning just one state(Or even better none)his "electability" starts to be questioned even more. Plus, Bernie will already have a gain in momentum from IW/NH. I don't think he wins SC but I think he's likely to end up in second.
So Super Tuesday in the South isn't so daunting because you have confidence in Biden shaken and Bernie reaping more of the benefit because of Pete's lack of support down here. Although Pete does serve a purpose in splitting off some of Biden's vote. Plus, people like Doomberg will be around to take a little from Biden. I don't think Bernie wins the south by any means but there is a way for him to survive his weakest region without getting routed. Then make a showing elsewhere that day.
None of this may happen and Biden could blow the doors off of it.... in which case we can just give up on caring because we're fucked. Or the Dems could learn from the GOP in 2016 and not let the establishment vote be split the way it is now.
But if you want a recent example of what momentum in the early states can do look at Obama and Clinton in 2008. She was pretty dominate in most of the southern polls right up until the primary.
I am worried about how Bernie's ground game is going to be in the south but if it's anything like what's in the early states and California he's going to outperform the polls. He outperformed many of them last time and his ground game is in another league now.
Pretty interesting how little coverage they've given all of Mayor Pete's race issues. It would plague Bernie's entire campaign. But I guess it makes sense when you consider that most rich liberals don't actually give a shit unless they can use it as a wedge against someone.
Just the way the press has propped up a shitty mayor with relatively little experience and a knack for speaking consultant jargon that just so happens to favor lobbyist talking points is weird. Right? It's weird. Although his national polling is less than great he's surging and important and we're all suppose to not notice that he's got massive weaknesses. Shit that would be hammered on if he, for example, actually fucking stood for anything that might change the materiel conditions of the populous in any major way.
Trump at #NATOsummit: “The Democrats have gone crazy. Nobody has ever seen anything like it. We’ll see what happens. We have a very good relationship with the Kurds. We’ve taken the oil. We’ve got the oil. But if we didn’t have it, the Kurds wouldn’t be able to survive...This is a total fix. You know what a fix is? This is a fix. Just think of it. Tomorrow I don’t think anybody’s gonna watch. I’m not gonna watch. I gonna be doing this. It’s much more exciting. And you know what, tomorrow think of it. They get 3 constitutional lawyers and we get one. That’s not even smart because it’s not gonna matter. And they take 3 and they give us one. Who ever heard of anything like that? Nobody, I want them to testify but I want them to testify in the Senate where they’ll get a fair trial.”
Awaiting the full transcript to make sure this is 100% but.. I can't find a reason to not think it is.
If that is the case.. Did he really just A) Start a UN discussion talking about his political rivals? B) Say the Kurds are now safe because we TOOK their oil? C) Sound like a fucking 4th grader rattling off? D) Declare this entire impeachment proceedings, the rarest event possible for the executive office, stupid -- but then say please bring to the Senate where both political and criminal charges could be filed??
Hopefully Yang qualifies for the next debate because it'll be a really bad look to have a stage filled with mostly old, all white folks
Too late. But if you want a ground floor opinion, totally biased by my age group, people who are black and POC and actively invested in politics have already turned far into Sanders or Warrens group. I haven't had ONE tell me Biden. We are talking about polls that I think may now be inaccurate because the polling data doesn't scan across the culture war that is in occurrence.
I do think Yang deserves to be on the stage because he's been holding above 5% for a long time. That cannot be said about a lot of these clowns
Post by sodavisions on Dec 3, 2019 14:21:17 GMT -5
This is setting up to be a near-repeat of 2016's DNC face-off. Sanders vs another moderate in Biden, although I think Sanders might be able to pull it off this year with all of the weird press Joe's gotten lately. I'm probably going to be very disappointed with the DNC again, though.
I will even say an even split.. There will be people confused at a base level about why they followed her and will have disdain for Biden. Buttigieg might seem comparable, but not from a POC standpoint and also from people concerned with his inconsistencies.
edit: That split between Sanders and Warren
Last Edit: Dec 3, 2019 14:30:54 GMT -5 by Deleted - Back to Top
This is setting up to be a near-repeat of 2016's DNC face-off. Sanders vs another moderate in Biden, although I think Sanders might be able to pull it off this year with all of the weird press Joe's gotten lately. I'm probably going to be very disappointed with the DNC again, though.
As reality speaks. If we don't get Sanders we will probably have Warren. Keep just fighting the good fight.
I think that we're discounting that the evidence sometimes just outweighs things. If we all pull wins in the right states, the Democrats can only lose by being aggressively weak.
Nah, they'll cop out like all these Bitch ASS republicans right now. For the last 20 years.
"Notably, considering Buttigieg’s abysmally low polling numbers among black and Hispanics voters, Adler said he has also introduced his friend to various local community leaders of color. (Adler said he couldn’t remember specific names.)"