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i'm voting kdogg. his logic is just waaay off. seems like he is trying to draw attention away from himself as early as possible by trying to pin it on bama and cajun so quickly
Post by inertiaticc on Apr 11, 2008 0:55:32 GMT -5
hm. i'm going to go kdogg this round. i find it suspicious that he started the accusations immediately after the rules were officially posted.... this may be subject to change if someone can sway me.
Voting for me is a big mistake. So much so that I was compelled to drive to the college library in the midst of a storm strong enough to cut off my home internet to make my case.
So you call me "thinky" and I won't argue with that. But to imply that I'm sneaky because I'm "thinky" in here, when the case can be made that I am "thinky" in general, is not sufficient cause for suspicion. If you don't think I can be "thinky" in general, pay a visit to the Election 2008 thread I started. One particularly good example contained wherein is my lengthy justification of my reasons for supporting Bill Richardson on page three.
Do you really think I'd be mafia two rounds in a row? What are the odds of that? If we're going to look at things statistically, there are better odds of one of last game's previous non-mafia players (almostcertain, cupcake, purplefuzzystuff, and sadielady) being mafia this round than a mafia player from last round being one this round as well. You can doubt me because you suspect my motives, but numbers are impersonal and unbiased.
I do not feel I am wrong in suspecting bama and Cajun because of their early correspondence. I previously stated that the role-assignment time invalidated my point. I reverse that stance after rethinking that situation. Mafia roles can be - and have been - assigned before the player roster is complete. I know this from experience, because that's how things went last round. I still think there is reason to suspect these two on that basis.
Don't hold last game against me. I was mafia and I tried to win. Don't hold it against me that I did what I had to do to win. Isn't that the point? Face it - it worked. We were a good mafia. Killed the inspector early. Every one of us survived. I don't think Aly even got a single vote for her. On an individual level, the player I voted for each round wound up being the player who was voted dead. You can't deny I was an impact player in that game. Think what you will about my tactics, but judge me by the results I brought. The luck of the draw in role assignment is a double-edged sword. It worked against you last time, but it can work for you this time.
Now, fellow citizens, you have a choice. Keep me alive, so I can have your backs against the mafia - or - Vote me dead, and lose a valuable ally The choice is yours.
A vote for me is a mistake. I am not mafia. The end results will vindicate me on this.
Post by bamadancer on Apr 11, 2008 12:33:06 GMT -5
kdogg is really, really defensive...why would he be so defensive if he weren't mafia. Seems like he's trying a little *too* hard to save his hide!
I hate to vote for him, because this means I'm voting with cajun (and trust me this is not intentional), so I vote for kdogg.
Also, to my defense, I asked cajun about that PM (which I had sent like a day before) before we even had enough players to play and wayyyy before roles were assigned.
I'm accused of being sneaky because I'm "thinky," and my self-defense as an innocent is further ignored because I'm being "thinky" as well. Perhaps the problem is not that I'm thinking about things too much, but that you all aren't thinking about them enough. Can any of you please explain to me why, when I fed you total bullshit, you bought it - but when I speak the truth you disregard me?
About the early messaging... I am not speaking of it from a point of certainty. It could be perfectly innocent, I admit. However, it is the first round and I have nothing else to go on except the fact that I am not mafia. Whether you people want to believe me or not is your call, but it's the truth.
Like I said, I think my out-playing the field in the last round is unjustly being used against me. Six of the eleven players in this round were part of the last round. A full half of the ten players against me (almostcertain, cupcake, Meg, purplefuzzystuff, sadielady) were bested by me last round, and I feel I'm being singled out on an irrational basis. Yes, I realize there's no rationality in round one. That's no defense for acting as irrationally as one can.
I'm not mafia, and if you're not going to take my word for it, at least consider my forthcoming numbers-based argument about the odds of my being mafia - soon to be posted.
Post by purplefuzzystuff on Apr 11, 2008 13:17:00 GMT -5
but I didn't vote for you, neither did meg, so how could you use the argument that the people in the last game are after you... ...sillyhead... ;D ....<<<that's my attempt to bring the hostility down.....
On the Odds of Me being Mafia Two Consecutive Rounds
Since you people obviously don't take me on my own personal word that I am not mafia, I can only hope a numerical Hail Mary analysis can back me up here. As I said earlier, you can argue with a person but it is more difficult to argue against impartial data.
There are 121 possible combinations of successive role assignments that can be had in two consecutive rounds of this game, as played with eleven players.
In this analysis, I will use the letters A-K representing roles in the first round and the numbers 1-11 representing roles in the second round. Lettered and numbered roles will correspond; a first-round A equals a second-round 2, and so on. I will try to keep this simple, since you people seem to have an anti-"thinky" bias against me. The Inspector role will complicate things, is unnecessary for my purposes and will thus be excluded. The changing roster of the game does not matter - this is to demonstrate the likelihood that I, as but one player, have of being mafia in two consecutive rounds.
I designate A/1, B/2, and C/3 as mafia roles. Double mafia duty in this graph are a combination of the letters A-C with a number 1-3.
This is the probability chart of the roles a player may have in two consecutive rounds. A-C & 1-3 = mafia. D-K & 4-11 = non-mafia.
After this, I have a maximum 33-in-121 chance of being mafia. This can be narrowed down further: A: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 B: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 C: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 D: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 E: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 F: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 G: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 H: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 I: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 J: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 K: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 The numbers in bold represent my chances of being mafia twice in a row, out of the initial 121 possibilities. I calculate the odds of my - or anyone, for that matter - being mafia twice in a row as 9-in-121. Percentagewise, the likelihood that I am mafia for a two consecutive rounds is 7.45%. (Personally, I know the likelihood of my being mafia is zero because I am a citizen!)
Now, as I have said, half of the non-kdogg players in this game were in the previous game - almostcertain, cupcake, Meg, purplefuzzystuff, and sadielady. Let's look at the chances of a first-round non-mafia player being mafia in the second round:
There is a 24-in-121 chance that a first-round non-mafia player will be a mafia in the second round. Percentagewise, we're looking at 19.83%. The people who were not mafia last round are 2.66 times as likely as I am to be mafia - and keep in mind there's five of them.
Assume this game goes four rounds. Since half the decisions are made by the mafia, each round is 1/4 of the total choices the collective gets to make. Do you really want to squander 25% of your influence on a decision with a 7.45% chance of being the case?
The chance of being mafia once is 27.27%. The chance of a particular player being mafia twice is 7.45%. Any one of you is 3.66 times more likely to be mafia this round than I am to be mafia twice in a row.
In a nutshell: - Odds of a player being mafia in a single round = 3 in 11 / 27.27% - Odds that one of the five players (besides myself) from the previous round of being mafia this round = 24-in-121 / 19.83% - Odds that I am mafia this round after being mafia last round = 9-in-121 / 7.45% To the mafia, if these people can somehow be swayed by rational argument and I survive this round: My odds of being inspector the round after playing the mafia role = 3-in-121 / 2.48%
By my analysis, each and every one of you has a greater numerical likelihood of being mafia than I do. Those players that weren't in game 8 seem to have a greater likelihood of being mafia (27.27%) than those who did play in game 8 (19.83%). Since I was mafia last game, I have the least chance of being mafia now (7.45%) as well as a lower chance than a game 8 non-participant. If you think about it, I'm the last person you should be voting for. But as I said, you're not thinking about it - and you're ganging up on me because I'm thinking about it.
Whether you decide to vote for me or not, I just did you a favor. I set up some tables and did some number-crunching (there I go being "thinky" about things again) that have a more rational, impartial foundation to them. It is easier to disagree with me as a person/player than it is to disagree with numbers.
I managed to work all this out myself setting up charts with pencil & single sheet of notebook paper and doing the numbers with a calculator. Use my numbers if you like, though I'll admit I didn't adhere to as strict methods as a statistician would. But if you don't trust my figures I encourage you to calculate your own. You'll probably arrive at some similar conclusions and realize that I'm being honest here.
even if kdogg is mafia... the fact that he took all that time to come up w/ whatever that is above... makes me want to change my vote. i just don't know to who yet... so i'd like my vote to be null. i'll think about it while i read all of kdogg's rambling above.
I have a few more things to say in defending myself against the accusation that I'm thinking this out too much.
1. My first-round voting last time It was a bit sloppy. My vote changed several times. It gives the appearance I wasn't even trying to rationalize something - because I already knew who the mafia were. Which brings me to... 2. I am thinking about this more. Why? Because I have a hell of a lot more uncertainty to work through as a citizen, that's why!
I think I've had enough trying to make a rational defense of my citizen status. For Chrissakes, I'm trying to figure out the mafia just like a majority of you are.
Would it better convince you to just swear on my corn and vinyl? I don't have a turntable, but from the days when I did my parents let me take all their old records they were just going to throw out. One of these in particular was an incredible find within this bequeathing of vinyl. A copy of Aerosmith's Toys in the Attic. There are some things unique to this particular copy of that vintage Aerosmith release. - the words "Stash Box" are written on the toybox - there is some kind of plant with seven leaves drawn in one of the hands on the album... not sure what that's all about - several places, in Mom's handwriting, it says "Nancy + Jim" (my parents' names) with a heart dotting the I I consider it a family heirloom.
And if it's what it takes to please you people, I swear on it and all the rest if I'm lying when I say I'm not mafia this round.
Seriously, what does it take to convince you people I'm a citizen? Throw whatever you've got at me, up to and including the kitchen sink.
So since I have thrown down the gauntlet to address any and all concerns you might have, I feel I should address loose ends I already see hanging.
cupcake said:
i'm voting kdogg. his logic is just waaay off. seems like he is trying to draw attention away from himself as early as possible by trying to pin it on bama and cajun so quickly
I still think I'm onto something here. Don't think of "when roles are assigned" as every player receiving their roles at approximately the same time. It is not necessarily so, at least from my experience. As far as voting when I did: The private messages that I'm wary of happened before voting began. I suspect they were conspiring before voting had even opened, so on that basis doesn't it make sense that I'd place a vote for one of them soon after it had opened? That was the only thing I had to go on making that vote, and is only one of two things I have to go on now. The other one is that the mafia are jumping on the bandwagon with a handful of citizens in order to get a citizen killed. But this is a blanket suspicion that is too broad to be making accusations on now, but might be helpful to consider in future rounds.
purplefuzzystuff said:
I love your campaigning theme there......although, something to think about, Most people don't trust politicians
As a political science major, let me tell you that I don't trust a lot of politicians out there myself. That doesn't mean there are no good ones - and the good ones get my whole-hearted support. If you are going to be attacking me on the basis for my politics, I am obligated to respond. My favorite among them is Sen. Russ Feingold. The lone vote against the Patriot Act, voted against Iraq, co-sponsor of the biggest campaign finance reform legislation since the 1970s, who won't introduce a bill he hasn't already paid for... I can go on forever. I cast my first vote ever for him, and for every one of his re-elections. He was my first choice for President this year, but decided not to run. I am an intern in his Senate office this semester. If you're going to pin me to a politician, pin me to him. I have no problem with that. My point is, the good ones play the same game as the evil ones.
purplefuzzystuff said:
yes buuuuuuut that was before duties were even assigned.....so really your argument has no logic......so is your vote for cajun completely random? Since really that is what this round is about
kdogg said:
Point taken. I did not consider that.
However - I stand by my vote for the time being, because I respect the judgment of our neighbors to the north.
Disregard my response. I came to the realization of the timeframe by which I became mafia, and realized that I can't rule out this suspicion. If handgun is picking mafia the same way wooz picked mafia, it could happen again. Since she's a first-time ref, don't you think someone's showing her the ropes? The suspicion regarding bama/cajun might be kind of weak, but it was all I really had to go with. I felt it was suspicious enough to merit choosing over something completely random and irrational.
almostcertain said:
i vote kdogg. he's getting too thinky in the first round.
inertiaticc said:
now that you mention it, kdogg does seem a bit on the "thinky" side... i'm not casting any vote yet.. but it is raising my suspicions a bit..
Already addressed this in a previous post. I'm thinking because I'm a citizen and don't know jack.
inertiaticc said:
hm. i'm going to go kdogg this round. i find it suspicious that he started the accusations immediately after the rules were officially posted.... this may be subject to change if someone can sway me.
You make it sound like I was there posting immediately after the rules were posted. Allow me to dispel this: Rules posted: Yesterday at 4:02pm Next post by kdogg: Yesterday at 5:19pm That is over an hour, during which three other players beat me to the punch. sanus - Yesterday at 4:03pm Meg - Yesterday at 4:33pm handgunhips - Yesterday at 4:42pm (though she's posting the rules) almostcertain - Yesterday at 5:17pm
almostcertain said:
pssst. someone say something incriminating.
I weighed in two minutes later, with the best suspicion that I had going. She asked for something incriminating to be said, and I pointed out the one thing I thought was incriminating. Isn't that how the game is played?
almostcertain said:
bamadancer said:
I know there's a what.cd invites thread, but it's old.
I have 9 STMusic invites for anybody who's interested!
I'm buying the fact that that PM had nothing to do with this game.
And I'm not. But I'm voting for who I think might be mafia like a good citizen.
bamadancer said:
kdogg is really, really defensive...why would he be so defensive if he weren't mafia. Seems like he's trying a little *too* hard to save his hide!
I hate to vote for him, because this means I'm voting with cajun (and trust me this is not intentional), so I vote for kdogg.
Also, to my defense, I asked cajun about that PM (which I had sent like a day before) before we even had enough players to play and wayyyy before roles were assigned.
What, citizens don't try to save their hides when their back is against the wall? I have already expressed my reservations about assuming a universal time of role receipt. Voting with cajun only enhances the suspicion I already had.
I hope this adequately addresses all the concerns that have been raised. I'm leaving my vote open so I can further address any issues anyone has with me.
kdogg - you have waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much time on your hands.
Post by sparklybecca on Apr 11, 2008 15:53:51 GMT -5
ideoteque said:
kdogg - you have waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much time on your hands.
*i like coconuts, you can break them open they smell like ladies lyin in the sun** *Hell I don't even know where I am** *for now I must sit here and ponder the yonder: The herbivores did well cause their food didn't never run** *We listen, if it feels good We shake** *You made a big impression for a girl of your size, Now I can't get by without you and your big brown eyes.**
sammy o
Stanky McNasty The Artist formerly known as Samus
sorry, im gonna have to change my vote to kdogg, that is an awfully guilty plee.
edit: no issue w/ you k...just don't need all that 'thinky' stuff. plus, nobody else went to the defensive when they were voted upon, yet who does? that would be you. i didn't have any suspicion until i came back today and you wrote three full length books about it. i'm no longer hungry for cupcakes. sorry man.
So since I have thrown down the gauntlet to address any and all concerns you might have, I feel I should address loose ends I already see hanging.
cupcake said:
i'm voting kdogg. his logic is just waaay off. seems like he is trying to draw attention away from himself as early as possible by trying to pin it on bama and cajun so quickly
I still think I'm onto something here. Don't think of "when roles are assigned" as every player receiving their roles at approximately the same time. It is not necessarily so, at least from my experience. As far as voting when I did: The private messages that I'm wary of happened before voting began. I suspect they were conspiring before voting had even opened, so on that basis doesn't it make sense that I'd place a vote for one of them soon after it had opened? That was the only thing I had to go on making that vote, and is only one of two things I have to go on now. The other one is that the mafia are jumping on the bandwagon with a handful of citizens in order to get a citizen killed. But this is a blanket suspicion that is too broad to be making accusations on now, but might be helpful to consider in future rounds.
this is why im voting for you. I dont believe that there was ANY talk related to the mafia game whatsoever. And no, i dont think it makes sense at all. people pm each other a lot around here!
also, i agree with samus. no one else go defensive like you did.
Post by cajuninsaudi on Apr 11, 2008 17:13:33 GMT -5
kdogg said:
Game 8's over. Deal with it, and don't hold it against me this time around. You don't know what role I'm playing now.
By your own admission we should disregard what happened last game, yet you keep trying to drag it into this game with your statistics.
I'm sorry but your statistical approach is flawed. Yes, the overall odds of you being assigned mafia in consecutive games are slim. However for any SINGLE game your odds are the same.
If I flip a coin ten times statistics tells me that it will be heads 5 times and tails 5 times. However if it came up heads for the first 9 times ( statistically probably but unlikely) that will not alter in any way the odds of the last coin toss. It will still be a 50% chance that it will be heads. The coin does not know the odds.
However we are dealing with more than simple statistics here. We have no idea how handgunhips made the decision for roles. She could have done it randomly picking names out of a hat... or she could have tried to see who she thought most suited to what role. By your own admission you were an 'impact player' last round, she could have tried to see if you could pull it off. Jsut trying to show there many more variables than are represented in your table.
I'll admit I am not 100% sure you're mafia, my initial vote for you was inspired by your own immediate attack upon me ( once again attacking the poor defenseless Cajuns, who had to flee from the evil Canadian oppression). To use your own argument I'm convinced of only two things, I am a townsperson and you are not the inspector ( if you were you'd know I'm not mafia). The first round always sucks, there's no real evidence to vote for anyone and most of the time it's pretty random, however you seem pretty defensive already....
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