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Post by potentpotables on Feb 23, 2015 8:40:47 GMT -5
Monky, to answer your question - I was suspicious of you earlier in the game for a possible connection to roo, I tested it out a few times and I think you've convince me that you are a fellow townie. I have no more suspicions of you.
As far as my suspicion level goes, I'd rank you all as follows:
4. monky 3. billy 2. jim 1. krissy
I am about to head into a meeting that will take me to probably to about 5pm. It will be a fun, fun day. I am trying to put together a post that explains my justification, but for now:
Strange - I have thread bookmarked and haven't gotten any notifications of activity since the last round ended...I had started to think you all had given up! Glad to see that's not the case.
Knowing that we HAVE to get a mafia today, here’s my theory. Warning: Crazy long post ahead:
I believe two of the mafia are carini and monky. The third could’ve possibly been roo, but there are possible holes in that theory, so I’m not sold on that completely although I see connections where that could work, too.
Looking back from Day 1, carini and monky vote for each other and have a little bit of a back and forth about it. This is the best day for the mafia to hide as the numbers are in their favor. They can pretty safely vote for each other knowing things can switch up fairly quickly on Day 1. Carini did lots of vote changes which helped with that. Then the roo/Viking stuff helped provide more cover and the opportunity to pull monky from the runoff (roo moved his vote, then carini moved his – monky is safe). IF mafia are roo/carini/monky – this move is more strategic than it seems at first glance.
This leaves roo and carini in with Viking and slack for the first runoff. Slack and Carini go at each other, Viking and Roo go at each other. Monky stays quiet until:
I gotta say I'm not a fan of the choices we have for the 2nd runoff, I really wished we had either Viking or Roo in there also because they seem just as suspicious if not more so then our current contenders. It seems to me like this run-off has been this odd pairing of Carini vs. Slack OR Roo vs. Viking - YOU decide! I think a 3rd person in a 2nd runoff would be a good start for the first day & we'd get more useful (maybe...) conversation from it. I'm thinking we have 1 mafia in this 4 person runoff and My vote will stay where it is because I'm no less suspicious of any other player who's in it. I'm not really liking it though. I'm Hoping surfbumdj will vote before my bedtime tonight, his vote being last it will carry substantial weight in deciding how this day ends.
Monky sits on his vote for carini – at this point, he couldn’t move it without looking like he’s pulling carini from the runoff. At the end of the day, potent votes for roo and surf does a throw-away vote on Viking. The next runoff is carini/slack/roo.
Monky then states the probability of carini being mafia is low due to statistics – which is a flimsy argument at best – and does a “coin toss” between roo and slack, deciding on roo. (This is where I start to think roo isn’t mafia with carini and monky and the “saving monky from the runoff” earlier just worked REALLY well in their favor.) This move keeps carini from the final runoff.
More Viking/Roo stuff which makes it easy to hide for carini and monky. They both stay quiet while roo gets lynched and Viking gets whacked. Monky posts his theories on the whack (which are basically what carini posted first) and votes for surf. He’s then quiet for a few pages, then pops back in to change his vote to Jim – citing Jim’s silence as the reason. Then more quiet from monky.
The runoff is jfg/krissyjo/monky with those three players as the open votes. Monky votes for me stating his reason is “what everyone else has said” and that my posts seem to repeat what others have said (see above for monky doing the same).
I'm most suspicious of Krissy for all the reasons other people have given. One that sticks out to me is that many of her posts seem to repeat exactly the same thing someone else already said x number of posts before hers.
At the bottom of page 12, monky makes a super long post. In this post, he makes multiple statements defending carini (only quoting the relevant parts to save space):
Slack reciprocates Carini's vote and gives what is IMO a kind of weak sounding reason to suspect Carini of being Mafia.
I state that I'm not liking the runoff because to that point it was Slack vs. Carini while there was this other much more suspicious IMO dialogue going on between Roo & Viking. I had already pretty much made up my mind that I was going to move my vote off of Carini based on my flawed perception of the odds on him being mafia 2 games in a row. (later in the day I explain my thinking and get schooled on stats).
Page 6 Not much going on at first. Just Viking wondering why people are so suspicious of Carini. Him & Carini discuss playing styles/voting habits. None of this conversation strikes me as suspicious.
I finally post again. I first address Vikings previous question. In short I find his aggressive style of hammering on a player based on previous games suspicious. And this is the post where I move my vote off of Carini & I explain it's based on my perception of the odds on him being mafia 2 games in a row and my decision over Slack or Roo is random.
Then there’s lots of vote moving and tally confusion. In the end it’s a three-way tie . Surf then states jfg is more suspicious than I am and nulls his vote to cause a runoff between jfg and monky. People start moving votes from monky to jfg. The one that sticks out a bit to me is billy’s:
billybaroo > monkeybunny > jfg I reread all of this and I just feel more comfortable with my vote here. With the lack of discussion recently, I don't feel like this is suspicious. If anyone wanted to save jfg, they had time to switch their vote in the last 48 hours. All I'm doing now is piling on but I wanted to be clear with where I stand.
Jfg is lynched, surf is whacked.
Surf had suspicions about carini and stated he thought monky was a townie. Monky brings this up with a “If I were mafia” statement. Those always raise flags for me:
I'm suspicious of Billy & Jim, we've not heard much from them, more so of Jim though. Billy has at least given some explanation of his votes to some extant. Of course Krissy certainly shouldn't be off the radar entirely. I doubt I'll have time to give detailed and thought out post tonight I have some super not-at-all fun stuff to go deal with. potentpotables surf is the only person this entire game I can think of who said pretty straight out he thought I was town. Why if I were mafia would I want him whacked? It's been said by previous mafia players that the mafia is preoccupied with figuring out who is inspector. I think it worth going back and examining the people surf has voted for, including myself, and applied pressure to. Of the people left standing I'm least suspicious of Potent despite you voting for me repeatedly and I think I explained why. Guess I'll be the first to stack. I would really like to see Jim in a runoff with a couple of other folks even if one is me. monkybunney>>Jim
Carini then uses the same logic monky does and votes for billy:
Cabrini>>>Billy Want to make sure there is a runoff of some kind. Picked Billy because Surf thought Monky was town. More to come in bit but want to beat deadline
Inspector-If you are alive and well now would be a good time to tell us what you know
Trying to confirm they got the inspector in a whack possibly? By itself, it doesn’t look suspicious because of where we are in the game, but looking back at everything, it makes me curious.
We go into a runoff between me and carini. Monky states Billy raised good arguments against Carini – yet votes for me. Giving jim the final say.
I wished I had more time to sus out a good argument. I got allot going on today and might not have any chance to weigh in again before before the deadline. I'm still uncertain about which is which (if not both people) in the. Billy has raised some pretty good arguments against Carini. Provided no one else moves their vote I'm giving jim the final say. Monkybunney>>krissyjo
Jim then votes for carini. Carini asks if anyone has questions for him. Billy asks carini to make an argument against me.
If you want to make an argument to why you should be saved over krissyjo, I am all ears.
My arguement for lynching Krissy (and I say it like that because I feel should be lynched, not as saving me) is the first whack of Viking points very strongly towards her, she has continued to mostly play the hiding by talking but not saying much card. The whack of Surf also leads to her but not nearly as direct as the first one. She is only one of a few Surf mentions this time but he does mention her hard. I also feel like I have explained every accusation anyone has had of me (if I missed any please let me know and I'll address)
On my phone so I can't quote or tag very well. Billy - you said no one has layed out suspicions of carini but you. I posted a lengthy explanation of my suspicions a few pages back. I understand that since I've been a target since day 2, my posts get glossed over it seems. I'm still seeing people ( most recently carini) saying I am posting nothing of substance and staying quiet which is being viewed as hiding. This just isn't true. I admit the first day wasn't substantial, but then I made a few lengthy posts outlining my suspicions about certain people. It's difficult to get anyone to see the points I made when they see me as suspicious. I don't know what else I can say. If there is anything I need to explain further, just let me know.
No more questions or explanations are had and carini gets lynched and slack gets whacked.
Slack had suspicions of both carini and monky and slack is now dead.
I spent a lot of time outlining my theory up there. It'd be nice if someone else chimed in, too. We're down to it and need to get it right. I've been trying not to post things like this because they lack substance, but it's been 5 hours since my extremely substantial post and there's barely a peep.
I don't understand why I'm being considered suspicious.
I know you are new to mafia but there is at least 1, maybe 2 mafia left. The odds are 20-40% that any player left is mafia. You should suspect all players remaining to some degree. I'm not shocked other people are voting for me, its how the game goes.
Okay that makes more sense. My ranking of suspicion right now would be Krissy Munky Billybaroo Potent
That's most suspicious to least suspicious in case that wasn't apparent.
I'd like to hear responses to my post about monky. The silence is unnerving. It makes me feel as though the mafia are just sitting back watching us kill each other off and laughing. I don't understand why there's not more talk going on.
Dammit hit post on my phone on accident. I have more to add to that
Okay wow. Krissy- my suspicions of her are similar to everyone's. Her shady posts at the beginning of the game about advancing the game without adding anything were the biggest alarm at first.
Munky- Despite my ongoing suspicions of Krissy, I believe she made some good points regarding Munky. The defending of Carni throughout then game then Slack being whacked (one of Carini's biggest doubters) is an obvious cause for alarm. Then again he's posted a lot so it can be easy to manipulate his words.
My I don't have many suspicions of Billy or Potent, I initially voted for Potent this round to see if anyone would speak up or try to save him or something, but that didn't happen. I don't put too much weight into them not posting much, (because I haven't been posting much, and I'm a townie, so I find no reason to put suspicion on them for not posting much.)
I agree we need a runoff. This 4-way standoff does no good. whether it be one or two mafia still alive, everyone scattering their votes gets us nowhere.
While Jim's recent activity bumps him up on my suspicion list, I want monky in a runoff. I dont care who is against him, even if it's myself.I again ask for some sort of response to my post. Is anyone out there?
Post by potentpotables on Feb 23, 2015 21:17:27 GMT -5
I'll be honest - I have no idea who is mafia remaining. I know it's one or two of you, and I've been searching feverishly for connections to Roo/JFG/Carini to see if anything sticks out. The whole game to me comes down to whether you believe it is Roo or Carini who is mafia.
While it was going on, I was torn on the question of Roo. On the one hand, Viking went at him really hard, trying to get a rise, which he did. That doesn't mean Viking was right. I am trusting that Viking was right if I think it's Roo. I also have to say that I don't understand why Roo protested so much. That was something that made me follow Viking's suspicions right away. I had nothing else to go on, but I thought if he wasn't mafia, why would he seem to take it so personally?
Carini has been mentioned by Krissy above (see - somebody pays attention to your posts). I find what Krissy says about it to be eminently believable.
I'll tell you why I am suspicious of each of you:
- Jim - you have a vote on me right now. I see what you've said recently, but it doesn't change the fact that you have a vote on me. Additionally, I told you I'd answer any questions you have, and you haven't asked a single question of me.
- Krissy - I've come at you pretty hard (and I hope people don't take this personally). I went with Viking's theory for awhile, though I didn't buy the whole "checking in but saying nothing" argument (I wonder if some of that is lost in the gender gap and different ways men and women communicate). Despite me coming after you a bit, you just ranked me low on your radar. Why can't I get a rise out of you Frustrating.
- Monky - part of the same reason as I'm suspicious of Krissy, I came after you a bit and despite all of that you didn't reciprocate at all. It seems like something you would do if you were mafia - I haven't attracted much interest so there is no reason to get into a Roo/Viking type sparring match with me. Krissy outlined some reasonable questions of you, but obviously I haven't voted for you yet.
- Billy - I can't get past the post where you called out JFG for liking Carini's request for the inspector to step forward. Why not handle that via PM? Could your doing that publicly have been a way to orchestrate the spotlight off of you? I feel like I'm really chasing waterfalls here, and would rather stick to the rivers and lakes I'm used to...but I can't shake the feeling that this was weird.
Krissy, in your long post today you said that Monky playing the "If I were mafia" card raised suspicions. However, it seems like Monky (despite using this flag raising tactic) is correct - surf cleared him, so why would he want him gone?
When it comes down to it, in my thinking, it's all depending on whether you believe Roo or Carini was mafia. I am choosing to believe it was Roo. Carini asking for the inspector to come out at that point I think was important. If he is mafia and trying to confirm a whack, fine, but it would have been more valuable to ask as townie and get that info (in my opinion). Since nobody responded, you have to believe either the inspector is the least helpful inspector ever, or was dead. That would mean it was either Viking or Surf and the mafia succeeded in whacking one of them (there's also the possibility that the inspector is still alive, and if that's the case then again inspector you are making a case for least helpful inspector ever). I don't see any reason to think inspector wasn't Viking or Surf. Viking said that he always keeps the inspector's name out of his posts. Well, there were two people in his big accusatory post that he didn't mention - slack and billy. I think Billy not admitting to inspector means it's not him, and slack died after Carini's request. But wait - one more person not mentioned...Viking himself. Inspector? We debated it earlier, but now by the process of elimination it seems like he's the best option.
Of course I would love for someone to come out as inspector while I was writing this and blow it all to hell.
I'm interested in a runoff, but feel like others need to move their vote to make it happen, or give me a place to move my vote.
I'll be honest - I have no idea who is mafia remaining. I know it's one or two of you, and I've been searching feverishly for connections to Roo/JFG/Carini to see if anything sticks out. The whole game to me comes down to whether you believe it is Roo or Carini who is mafia.
While it was going on, I was torn on the question of Roo. On the one hand, Viking went at him really hard, trying to get a rise, which he did. That doesn't mean Viking was right. I am trusting that Viking was right if I think it's Roo. I also have to say that I don't understand why Roo protested so much. That was something that made me follow Viking's suspicions right away. I had nothing else to go on, but I thought if he wasn't mafia, why would he seem to take it so personally?
Carini has been mentioned by Krissy above (see - somebody pays attention to your posts). I find what Krissy says about it to be eminently believable.
I'll tell you why I am suspicious of each of you:
- Jim - you have a vote on me right now. I see what you've said recently, but it doesn't change the fact that you have a vote on me. Additionally, I told you I'd answer any questions you have, and you haven't asked a single question of me.
- Krissy - I've come at you pretty hard (and I hope people don't take this personally). I went with Viking's theory for awhile, though I didn't buy the whole "checking in but saying nothing" argument (I wonder if some of that is lost in the gender gap and different ways men and women communicate). Despite me coming after you a bit, you just ranked me low on your radar. Why can't I get a rise out of you Frustrating.
- Monky - part of the same reason as I'm suspicious of Krissy, I came after you a bit and despite all of that you didn't reciprocate at all. It seems like something you would do if you were mafia - I haven't attracted much interest so there is no reason to get into a Roo/Viking type sparring match with me. Krissy outlined some reasonable questions of you, but obviously I haven't voted for you yet.
- Billy - I can't get past the post where you called out JFG for liking Carini's request for the inspector to step forward. Why not handle that via PM? Could your doing that publicly have been a way to orchestrate the spotlight off of you? I feel like I'm really chasing waterfalls here, and would rather stick to the rivers and lakes I'm used to...but I can't shake the feeling that this was weird.
Krissy, in your long post today you said that Monky playing the "If I were mafia" card raised suspicions. However, it seems like Monky (despite using this flag raising tactic) is correct - surf cleared him, so why would he want him gone?
When it comes down to it, in my thinking, it's all depending on whether you believe Roo or Carini was mafia. I am choosing to believe it was Roo. Carini asking for the inspector to come out at that point I think was important. If he is mafia and trying to confirm a whack, fine, but it would have been more valuable to ask as townie and get that info (in my opinion). Since nobody responded, you have to believe either the inspector is the least helpful inspector ever, or was dead. That would mean it was either Viking or Surf and the mafia succeeded in whacking one of them (there's also the possibility that the inspector is still alive, and if that's the case then again inspector you are making a case for least helpful inspector ever). I don't see any reason to think inspector wasn't Viking or Surf. Viking said that he always keeps the inspector's name out of his posts. Well, there were two people in his big accusatory post that he didn't mention - slack and billy. I think Billy not admitting to inspector means it's not him, and slack died after Carini's request. But wait - one more person not mentioned...Viking himself. Inspector? We debated it earlier, but now by the process of elimination it seems like he's the best option.
Of course I would love for someone to come out as inspector while I was writing this and blow it all to hell.
I'm interested in a runoff, but feel like others need to move their vote to make it happen, or give me a place to move my vote.
My vote remained on you for obvious reasons, if I would've switched it someone would've been voted off directly
Potent - I'm glad someone is actually around tonight with some input! Lol
Regarding your question about the "if I were mafia" thing with monky: it's super easy to talk in circles with this one, which is part of the reason it always seems fishy to me. It is a reasonable statement to make in this case, which would be a great cover for mafia. See what I mean about it going in circles?
I'll be honest - I have no idea who is mafia remaining. I know it's one or two of you, and I've been searching feverishly for connections to Roo/JFG/Carini to see if anything sticks out. The whole game to me comes down to whether you believe it is Roo or Carini who is mafia.
While it was going on, I was torn on the question of Roo. On the one hand, Viking went at him really hard, trying to get a rise, which he did. That doesn't mean Viking was right. I am trusting that Viking was right if I think it's Roo. I also have to say that I don't understand why Roo protested so much. That was something that made me follow Viking's suspicions right away. I had nothing else to go on, but I thought if he wasn't mafia, why would he seem to take it so personally?
Carini has been mentioned by Krissy above (see - somebody pays attention to your posts). I find what Krissy says about it to be eminently believable.
I'll tell you why I am suspicious of each of you:
- Jim - you have a vote on me right now. I see what you've said recently, but it doesn't change the fact that you have a vote on me. Additionally, I told you I'd answer any questions you have, and you haven't asked a single question of me.
- Krissy - I've come at you pretty hard (and I hope people don't take this personally). I went with Viking's theory for awhile, though I didn't buy the whole "checking in but saying nothing" argument (I wonder if some of that is lost in the gender gap and different ways men and women communicate). Despite me coming after you a bit, you just ranked me low on your radar. Why can't I get a rise out of you Frustrating.
- Monky - part of the same reason as I'm suspicious of Krissy, I came after you a bit and despite all of that you didn't reciprocate at all. It seems like something you would do if you were mafia - I haven't attracted much interest so there is no reason to get into a Roo/Viking type sparring match with me. Krissy outlined some reasonable questions of you, but obviously I haven't voted for you yet.
- Billy - I can't get past the post where you called out JFG for liking Carini's request for the inspector to step forward. Why not handle that via PM? Could your doing that publicly have been a way to orchestrate the spotlight off of you? I feel like I'm really chasing waterfalls here, and would rather stick to the rivers and lakes I'm used to...but I can't shake the feeling that this was weird.
Krissy, in your long post today you said that Monky playing the "If I were mafia" card raised suspicions. However, it seems like Monky (despite using this flag raising tactic) is correct - surf cleared him, so why would he want him gone?
When it comes down to it, in my thinking, it's all depending on whether you believe Roo or Carini was mafia. I am choosing to believe it was Roo. Carini asking for the inspector to come out at that point I think was important. If he is mafia and trying to confirm a whack, fine, but it would have been more valuable to ask as townie and get that info (in my opinion). Since nobody responded, you have to believe either the inspector is the least helpful inspector ever, or was dead. That would mean it was either Viking or Surf and the mafia succeeded in whacking one of them (there's also the possibility that the inspector is still alive, and if that's the case then again inspector you are making a case for least helpful inspector ever). I don't see any reason to think inspector wasn't Viking or Surf. Viking said that he always keeps the inspector's name out of his posts. Well, there were two people in his big accusatory post that he didn't mention - slack and billy. I think Billy not admitting to inspector means it's not him, and slack died after Carini's request. But wait - one more person not mentioned...Viking himself. Inspector? We debated it earlier, but now by the process of elimination it seems like he's the best option.
Of course I would love for someone to come out as inspector while I was writing this and blow it all to hell.
I'm interested in a runoff, but feel like others need to move their vote to make it happen, or give me a place to move my vote.
My vote remained on you for obvious reasons, if I would've switched it someone would've been voted off directly
Well no, there was quite a while today where Billy's vote was on you for 2 votes. You could have switched to Krissy or Monky to pull either into a runoff with you. Billy probably wouldn't have moved his vote if you did that, I'm guessing.
And now we are in the same spot. Billy gets the penalty of a missed vote and essentially he is going to have to make the same decision between voting for himself, or stacking, that he made before. And whoever he votes for is going to have to move their vote some way to get a runoff. Just delaying the inevitable.
Potent - I'm glad someone is actually around tonight with some input! Lol
Regarding your question about the "if I were mafia" thing with monky: it's super easy to talk in circles with this one, which is part of the reason it always seems fishy to me. It is a reasonable statement to make in this case, which would be a great cover for mafia. See what I mean about it going in circles?
Yes, I feel like everything in the game is circular logic (I even said so on something like page 8 - not going back to find where it is). I think I believe Monky at face value though, at least I'm inclined to, instead of thinking that's cover.
Potent - I'm glad someone is actually around tonight with some input! Lol
Regarding your question about the "if I were mafia" thing with monky: it's super easy to talk in circles with this one, which is part of the reason it always seems fishy to me. It is a reasonable statement to make in this case, which would be a great cover for mafia. See what I mean about it going in circles?
Yes, I feel like everything in the game is circular logic (I even said so on something like page 8 - not going back to find where it is). I think I believe Monky at face value though, at least I'm inclined to, instead of thinking that's cover.
Any thoughts on inspector?
Honestly - I have no idea who inspector was/is. Because no one has stepped forward to say they are inspector, I'm guessing they're dead now. Take your pick.
Also - monky's statement could've been quite innocent. It's just one of those triggers for me to look at anyone who uses that. I've been in games before where mafia have used that argument, so it makes me look a little closer. That, tied to the rest of the stuff I posted, still keeps Monky at the top of my list.
I'm reading through all this again but there is one thing I want to say. krissyjo states that she thinks monkey is mafia with either roonectar or carini. I see the carini ties but nothing connecting roo. I'm still going through everything but that is one thing I'm relatively certain of. I want to get my vote in sooner rather than later so more discussion can be had if needed.
For clarification: I also stated in my post that I wasn't sure of Roo. I said possibly, but there are holes to that theory, admittedly.
It's where I feel most comfortable. It backs up vikings, should he have been right all along. I don't buy her monkey argument. Looking at the votes of the people left remaining in the game, her votes bother me the most looking at what we know now.
Potent hasn't given us much one way or the other. If he was mafia, he got to coast by saying nothing. Jim was similar but his voting record stands more suspect in review. I wanted to review monkey as krissyjo feels monkey is our mafia and surf saying he didn't think monkey was mafia could provide cover, but after re-reading the 18+ pages, I felt more comfortable voting krissy over monkey.
Can you give me a little more detail into what about my votes bother you? Or whatever other reasons make you feel I'm more suspicious than monky? I don't mind going into a runoff if that's where we're heading, I just want the chance to give explanations since this day could easily seal our fate.
My mantra from Day 1: Discussion=good. Silence=bad.
Okay Billy, it seems to me as though you’re putting a spin on my post and reading things that aren’t there. I’ll do my best to do a point-for-point, but this is gonna be looong reading. Try to read it carefully this time.
Sure. Day 1 you wanted a slack, carini runoff while saying you didn't find roo suspicious. You didn't move your vote the rest of the day and that's fine but now you are saying monkey is mafia with either roo or carini. 3 things to note: 1. you could have voted for roo on day 1 but you wanted slack gone (slack was later proven to be town.) 2. you are now saying roo was maybe mafia but you never really put together a case for roo being mafia other than roo's ties to monkey. 3. If monkey and roo were together why would monkey have voted for roonectar over igetnoslack on day 1?? Monkey voted for other people until it was a 3 person runoff. He then moved his vote from carini to roonectar ensuring that roonectar would be in the 2 person runoff. To me that makes no sense and it's not like he was stuck on roo. It was his choice. That rules out the roonectar/monkey connection to me right away. If you are making a case for monkey being mafia with roonectar, I don't know how you can ignore that. Also there are a lot of votes between carini and monkey. I understand voting for each other on day 1 can create distancing for later in the game but I don't see enough to tie carini and monkey together.
At this point – I had equal suspicions about everyone because there was nothing to go off of. I made an initial vote for slack, then stayed on my vote. I am not the only one to do this, so it’s just silly to make that as a point for contention. It’s day 1. We have zero intel.
Regarding the monky/roo thing – This is the second time you’ve chosen to ignore that in my case against monky, I straight up said there were holes in the theory that roo was the third. I said it was a possibility – because anyone being mafia with anyone is a possibility – but I also straight up admitted that was NOT a solid theory. (quotes below by me from my super long post on page 18)
I believe two of the mafia are carini and monky. The third could’ve possibly been roo, but there are possible holes in that theory, so I’m not sold on that completely although I see connections where that could work, too.
Then the roo/Viking stuff helped provide more cover and the opportunity to pull monky from the runoff (roo moved his vote, then carini moved his – monky is safe). IF mafia are roo/carini/monky – this move is more strategic than it seems at first glance.
^^^Please note the big IF in that statement.
Monky then states the probability of carini being mafia is low due to statistics – which is a flimsy argument at best – and does a “coin toss” between roo and slack, deciding on roo. (This is where I start to think roo isn’t mafia with carini and monky and the “saving monky from the runoff” earlier just worked REALLY well in their favor.) This move keeps carini from the final runoff.
Above shows you that I was not, and AM not sold on the idea that Roo and Monky were mafia together.
Back to Billy’s post:
Night 1. Viking laid out his suspicion of jfg and krissy. I have learned that viking is a much better player than I am so if I am in doubt, it doesn't hurt to side with a veteran player later proven to be town. Your back and forth with viking raises your suspicion to me, not lowers it.
Let’s get specific, please. What part of the back and forth raises your suspicion? The one where I showed compassion to another player on Day 1 because Viking can be a bull in a china shop when he has his sights set on someone? Or is it just that since Viking is a damn good player, everything he says should be taken as gospel? I agree Viking is a fantastic player. That doesn’t mean he’s infallible, no matter how confidently he presents himself.
Day 2. This post was made by you early on day 2. It doesn't pass the smell test.
The three Viking went after the most were roo, jfg, and myself. I think there's definitely one mafia in that trio - if not two.
Well that above post has proven to be incorrect. Roo and jfg are both dead but the game still continues.
I believe potent pointed out your bad math here. I also never claimed to be infallible, either. At that point in the game, I did believe there was at least one mafia in that trio. As discussion continues throughout the game, opinions on who is mafia changes. It’d be ridiculous to have one set in stone idea of who is mafia from Day 1 without any room for change. I'm constantly looking at everyone as each new piece of information comes to light.
You draw the suspicion of surfbum (later proven to be town) and then you are the last to vote. This vote is in the middle of page 12 and you make your case for monkey. This is not a throwaway vote for you. You try to link monkey and roo even though monkey was a key vote in eliminating roonecatar when we were in a 3 person runoff in Day 1.
I’ve already spoken about the monky/roo thing. At that time, I thought there was a connection, then I looked back and see it’s not as solid as I initially thought at the time. Once again - Opinions change as information emerges.
Just checking in for the weekend. I see both monky and jfg as equally suspicious at this point so either one works for me.
The voting at the time of the above post was jfg 5 and monkey 4. You made a case for monkey and now that jfg is likely to be gone they are equally suspicious?? Seems like you are backing away.
Wait – what? That’s some serious stretching there, buddy. Between my post about JFG and the post you quoted, others laid out a case against jfg. Due to reading those posts, my suspicion of JFG raised a bit, making both monky and jfg equally suspicious to me at that point. That tends to happen as people share their theories. Should I say it again? Opinions change as information emerges.
At the point of the post below, you have laid out suspicions for both carini and monkey and now your post reads like it is a simple placeholder. You abandon your suspicions of carini and monkey to vote for slack again. From what I can tell, this is the 3rd different time you voted for slack to be in a runoff or asked for him to be in a runoff. This time it was because jfg and slack didn't vote for each other. Slack is later proven to be town.
My vote for monky was basically a placeholder so I didn't miss a vote if I couldn't get access before the cutoff. I remain suspicious of carini - but because he's already in the runoff, I'm hesitant to vote for him outright as runoffs are always better than a straight lynching. Regarding the whack: In his time in the game, surf voted for slack, me, and jfg. JFG is dead. Neither slack, nor jfg voted for each other the entire game. Because of this, I think it's time to bring slack back into the spotlight. I feel he should be added to this runoff. If anyone agrees, please move your vote to make it happen. krissyjo>>monky>>slack
I don’t know if you watched the weather at all last week for TN, but we were in a state of emergency. Power went out all over middle TN multiple times. Hell, my kids school has been out for 7 days straight as of today because of this ice shit. I really wish I could say I had the power to cause a natural disaster in order to cover my tracks, but I’m just not that cool (pun totally intended).
I got on long enough to put a vote in because I didn’t want to risk missing a vote. Believe what you want, but at that time – the vote for monky was simply a placeholder til I had time to go through again with more stable electricity access.
I changed my vote to slack because, at that point, slack had been down to it Day 1, then completely fell off the radar. I mentioned time and again (as did he) how that didn’t sit well, so I tried to make it possible for someone else to add him to the runoff so we could get more intel. I said that in my post above. Obviously no one moved, so it was pointless. It would’ve been just as pointless for me to stay on Monky at the time, too.
Also – you keep saying “so and so is later proven to be town” … What bearing, exactly, is that supposed to have? I go off of the information I have and the connections I make at the time. I only know the role of myself in this game. I make my decisions, and (shocker!) sometimes I’m wrong. That’s why opinions change and things that you don’t see at first are seen as the game progresses.
So in your monkey suspicions, you first lay out monkey and roo together, then monkey and jfg are equally suspicious, then carini is suspicious, then slack and jfg are suspicious together, then carini is your lead target and now it is monkey with roo or carini. It just doesn't track to me.
1. Monky/Roo – Let’s stop beating this dead horse, yeah? 2. Monky/JFG - Explained that one, too. 3. Carini – Still think we got a mafia with this one. 4. Slack/JFG – I made a connection. Albeit a wrong one in this case, but I made a connection just the same. 5. Monky/Roo or Carini – I’m gonna pretend Roo’s name isn’t even there because that’s just you picking and choosing what to read. I still stand behind my Monky/Carini connection – For better or worse.
Frustrating.