Mafia 94 - Recruiting for Mafia 95

i can do some digging after work and see what I can come up with. I think it's normally unusual for the inspector to place an initial vote for his given Mafia name, but I'm sure it's happened. It just seems a little reckless for the Inspector to go that route. More likely would be that the inspector avoids his given name but places his vote on another Mafia unknowingly.

Barring any changes, yes on ZIG.

This is more of an SFA move than a Mike D move. SFA likes to go for the sweep. It almost cost us the game when he and I were mafia together a few years ago. There use to be a saying that Mike D is always mafia because it happened like 4 or 5 games in a row back in the 30s and 40s I believe so he has a varied strategy. However, he usually lurks and tries to hide. He has not played in a while and I don't think we were ever mafia together so this is all as observation without being in that role with him.

You would be making a mistake by guessing my name, because I am town

On second thought: As long as we're focused on putting players with a 50-50 chance of being Mafia into contention...

kdogg > SFA

I think it could be informative.

Obviously Thor was not inspector.  I'm leery of saying definitively that Jaz wasn't though.  This is why I asked for the inspector (if Viking was faking) to come out before Night was over, in case they would be the whack.  I'd lean 95/5 right now that inspector is Viking, maybe even more...but there is that kernel of doubt.

I'm currently 50/50 on Viking right now. I would probably be more inclined to believe Viking, however, he thinks I'm Mafia with Mike D and SFA when I know I'm town. Because of this discrepancy, I have been spinning through a couple issues I see.

First, when Viking revealed at the end of Day 1, he also said he would be guessing SFA during the night. Then at the start of Day 2, Viking isn't dead, which probably should have happened. Viking comes back and basically gives an "ah shucks" I'm somehow alive answer, and by the way, I was right: SFA is Mafia response. It seemed a little to slick and easy.

Next, typically when an inspector reveals his identity, he provides some logical points and information on how he arrived at his Mafia selection; but even more importantly, how he decided players were townies. This is an excerpt from his reveal.


So based on Viking logic, 4 people are town because of the "balance of powers". And Rummy is town because she is "a woman scorned"? Basically Viking believes 5 people are town based on no evidence, and believes I'm Mafia not because I voted for him, but why I voted for him (paraphrasing). That feels pretty weak to me.

Also, if Viking is the Inspector, he announced his guess before the end of Day 1. Why would the Mafia allow him to confirm another Mafia player with his guess just to get out Jaz??

Okay, this is the second time this game Proboards has dropped the quote from my post. That's quoting Zig's post above me. This section on Viking's flimsy reasoning in particular...

Really glad we have the whole weekend for this round. I've had less free time today than I thought I would, and am going to be busy tonight.

so I researched the last 20 games to look at who the Inspector initially voted for on Day 1.

17 games the Inspector voted for a townie
2 games unknowingly for a Mafia
*1 game the Inspector voting for his given Mafia name

***and in that game, Mafia 93, Carini voted for his given name because that was the name he had to vote for based in his stupid formula.

So I don't think Jaz would be the Inspector initially voting for his given name Viking.

Argh I've got into data overage territory already. I gotta watch my shit until the new cycle starts on Sunday.

Zig, response brewing in my Memo app. I'll drop it in here when it's complete & I'm back on WiFi later tonight. Spoiler alert: we don't see eye to eye! *gasp*

"The logic doesn't make sense to me."
Who said the Mafia's move had to make the most common-denominator sense here?  Correct me if I'm wrong, but last game JimmyThor put one of his fellow scum into a runoff and you called that the move of the game... yeah?

Unconventional moves can yield results.  And let me add: We're a pretty impressive Mafia roster this go-round.  Conventional might not cut it this time around.

That being said, let's get to the rest of it.

I would differ somewhat with your assessment.  I think you understate in "1." and overstate in "2."

Your "1." (presuming Viking = Inspector) assumes that only one Mafia - Mike D - would be endangered by a Viking whack.  I disagree.  I say that SFA would have gotten a similar, albeit unconfirmed, target on his back.

Do you really think that Viking could have stated his given name and his intended guess, then get whacked for it... and Town would only pursue the given name, but ignore the intended guess after that?

I say that whacking Viking would have jeopardized them both.  I say the stakes are higher than what you suggest here.

Your "2." is based on the assumption that "town still believes the inspector" and that names Viking gave are "confirmations."  I think you're wrong on both those counts.  As I write this, there have been only three votes cast: by myself and two players with firsthand knowledge of & involvement in the situation.  As I write this, the undecided/deliberating players who have posted without a vote outnumber those who have voted - and that's without setting aside Viking & Mike D & their firsthand knowledge.

That is not the level of certainty you say exists here.  That is exactly the confusion and second-guessing that I'm saying such a move was intended to bring about.   Again, it seems to me you've misinterpreted things.


I just went over what I think you're missing.
If this is what I think it is, it's an attempt to sow general confusion & mistrust of the Inspector... and it seems to be working.  Unconventional moves can yield results.


Also, not specifically in response to that quoted post:
On top of all that, I find the lack of an Other Inspector claim telling. You even say you don't think it was Jaz, citing that 0-for-20 recent record. I think we're all in agreement that JimmyThor would have come out with it before he died - hell, he voted for himself after Viking revealed.

If there's a player who can counter Viking's claim, process of elimination would still have that player alive... yes? Still, we have nothing. Even after the threat of a Night One whack has been lifted. If that's the case, this would/will be the second consecutive round such a counterclaim was never made. It's kind of hard to buy into "Viking = Mafia" when there's no Exhibit A to support it and we know the player who could produce Exhibit A is still alive.

Can confirm: am confused

Do the guys who stand accused also have reputations for being wildcards who try to pull off crazy shit? I'm pretty positive all the crazy shit Mike and I have pulled off was in the later rounds. I don't even think of myself as all that radical of a player when I'm mafia. Either way, we do have this reputation.  You've got to admit we are both tempting targets in a fluke like this.

 Jimmy,  Carini and I had this conversation at the end of a game recently. Where he said that me being alive in later rounds means I'm mafia, because otherwise I'd be dead. That's a popular sentiment since I've been back playing. I keep telling people it's not true and the mafia have used me a lot in the past.  Usually when I'm on the wrong trail and helping them out. But they've certainly kept me alive in the past because I naturally draw suspicion.  I've just run into a string of first round whackings since I've been back playing. So people assume the mafia fears me.

I kept telling them that there was nothing stopping the mafia from using my reputation against me. That's pretty much how this game works. You misdirect and play off of people's expectations. That's exactly what Viking and whoever else is doing here.

You could use this same argument against you. By not killing inspector mafia is playing off of people's expectations (if Viking is indeed inspector).