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The possibility still exists to me that Mike D and Viking are mafia together and are feuding to create mega distance, which throws SFA into the crossfire and allows a 3rd mafia to skate through. I'm watching for this possibility.
1. I actually had the same thought tonight. Thought it was maybe too crazy & outlandish to even mention, for fear of reprisal. 2. Such a severe juxtaposition like that would pretty much clear one or the other from Mafia accusations for the remainder of the game... and one is all you really need to win in the end. 3. I do think SFA actually could be a decent target for that crossfire. They both voted for him in Day One, and he's mixed in ask Viking's stated ask.
Also: We probably should've just killed Viking immediately. The way this round is going, I don't think we really forced the Mafia's hand, gained any trust, or learned anything new.
The possibility still exists to me that Mike D and Viking are mafia together and are feuding to create mega distance, which throws SFA into the crossfire and allows a 3rd mafia to skate through. I'm watching for this possibility.
1. I actually had the same thought tonight. Thought it was maybe too crazy & outlandish to even mention, for fear of reprisal. 2. Such a severe juxtaposition like that would pretty much clear one or the other from Mafia accusations for the remainder of the game... and one is all you really need to win in the end. 3. I do think SFA actually could be a decent target for that crossfire. They both voted for him in Day One, and he's mixed in ask Viking's stated ask.
Also: We probably should've just killed Viking immediately. The way this round is going, I don't think we really forced the Mafia's hand, gained any trust, or learned anything new.
I take it since you didn't move your vote you aren't taking that theory very seriously?
Also: We probably should've just killed Viking immediately. The way this round is going, I don't think we really forced the Mafia's hand, gained any trust, or learned anything new.
This is what I initially thought before everyone called me a noob for suggesting it
Do the guys who stand accused also have reputations for being wildcards who try to pull off crazy shit? I'm pretty positive all the crazy shit Mike and I have pulled off was in the later rounds. I don't even think of myself as all that radical of a player when I'm mafia. Either way, we do have this reputation. You've got to admit we are both tempting targets in a fluke like this.
Jimmy, Carini and I had this conversation at the end of a game recently. Where he said that me being alive in later rounds means I'm mafia, because otherwise I'd be dead. That's a popular sentiment since I've been back playing. I keep telling people it's not true and the mafia have used me a lot in the past. Usually when I'm on the wrong trail and helping them out. But they've certainly kept me alive in the past because I naturally draw suspicion. I've just run into a string of first round whackings since I've been back playing. So people assume the mafia fears me.
I kept telling them that there was nothing stopping the mafia from using my reputation against me. That's pretty much how this game works. You misdirect and play off of people's expectations. That's exactly what Viking and whoever else is doing here.
You could use this same argument against you. By not killing inspector mafia is playing off of people's expectations (if Viking is indeed inspector).
Well, yeah. But I'd consider messing with expectations of norms of the game and messing with people's assessments of players are different enough topics to discuss on their own.
But you are correct. This game usually boils down to a handful of arguments made 1000 different ways with a nice variety of swearing thrown in own top.
Since you're new, one thing I find funny is how calm I am. A couple years ago I would have been cursing like a sailor if someone called me mafia or the townies turned on me. It's really embarrassing to go back and look at some of those games. But also kinda hilarious.
1. I actually had the same thought tonight. Thought it was maybe too crazy & outlandish to even mention, for fear of reprisal. 2. Such a severe juxtaposition like that would pretty much clear one or the other from Mafia accusations for the remainder of the game... and one is all you really need to win in the end. 3. I do think SFA actually could be a decent target for that crossfire. They both voted for him in Day One, and he's mixed in ask Viking's stated ask.
Also: We probably should've just killed Viking immediately. The way this round is going, I don't think we really forced the Mafia's hand, gained any trust, or learned anything new.
I take it since you didn't move your vote you aren't taking that theory very seriously?
It wouldn't matter. Mike D and I are liabilities, unless the real inspector comes forward. Just like that game I was pretty positive you were town and encouraged you to except that you might have to be voted off because everything pointed to you. Phi was dead set on you. He was pretty much telling the mafia that a round 5 would be winnable if you and Phi were in it. That's not what ended up happening but it was certainly on the table.
I'm not saying that's what I want but it's the likely outcome at the moment.
I take it since you didn't move your vote you aren't taking that theory very seriously?
I actually cast that vote in the context of testing SFA. It was an exercise in information gathering.
My assumptions: Mafia SFA would be more likely to reciprocate & make me eligible for a runoff, too. Town SFA would be more likely ignore it and take the "Viking said I'm Mafia. Fuck that guy. SFA > Viking anyway" route.
Not saying his Viking vote totally clears him, but if SFA had came after me despite everything... I'd have figured he was definitely mobbed up. So I'm relatively on the fence with him.
I take it since you didn't move your vote you aren't taking that theory very seriously?
It wouldn't matter. Mike D and I are liabilities, unless the real inspector comes forward.
Okay, so I recognize that your stance/claim overall right now, whether others personally believe it or not, is that 1) you're town, 2) Viking is likely Mafia, and 3) the real Inspector is still hiding away.
I totally get from your standpoint why you are asserting the first two. Not gonna question you further on that. Even in fact you are Mafia (along with Mike D) and Viking is telling the truth, of course your goal is to appear as town to the rest of us and thus also try and cast suspicion over towards Viking instead. But I do want to ask you about this third part: if the Inspector is still alive yet hiding, why? Do you really think that makes sense at this point?
And to the town in general: how believable would a D3, or lets say even a D4, second Inspector reveal be after all that has occurred? I'd have a hard time giving it much if any credibility, given how things have played out thus far
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Post by potentpotables on Jul 9, 2016 5:25:28 GMT -5
Rummy 500 a day 3 or day 4 inspector reveal would not be believable to me. At this point the inspector is viking or jaz, there are no other options unless we are playing with a raving fool (who is also secretly a dastardly genius and has a plan none of us can imagine).
Seriously if someone is waiting we need the reveal now so we get the Day 2 kill right.
If the real inspector is hiding and doesn't come out then he/she could have the blood of 3 townies on their hands. That being said I believe Viking until I'm given a substantial reason to believe otherwise.
It wouldn't matter. Mike D and I are liabilities, unless the real inspector comes forward.
Okay, so I recognize that your stance/claihttp://www.inforoo.com/post/1915680/quote/35794?page=15m overall right now, whether others personally believe it or not, is that 1) you're town, 2) Viking is likely Mafia, and 3) the real Inspector is still hiding away.
I totally get from your standpoint why you are asserting the first two. Not gonna question you further on that. Even in fact you are Mafia (along with Mike D) and Viking is telling the truth, of course your goal is to appear as town to the rest of us and thus also try and cast suspicion over towards Viking instead. But I do want to ask you about this third part: if the Inspector is still alive yet hiding, why? Do you really think that makes sense at this point?
And to the town in general: how believable would a D3, or lets say even a D4, second Inspector reveal be after all that has occurred? I'd have a hard time giving it much if any credibility, given how things have played out thus far
I don't think it is out of the question that our inspector is still out there and trying to make it to day three
You expressed a similar sentiment hours prior to me.
Maybe this situation is just frustrating but I find this reaction odd. I wasn't asserting that the inspector is hiding away. I have no clue. Just acknowledging the possibility. This is standard wording in R2/R3. I'm not sure how you are taking anything in that post as some grand claim. One of my first posts this round mentioned a HOPE that the inspector is still alive. It's very likely Jaz was the inspector, especially in this chaos. Still, the odds of the inspector making it to round 2 aren't terrible. I'm fairly certain kdogg has some data on that?
I feel I should point out that you took that quote from a post that was clearly speculation. I was talking about pre-planned actions discussed to eliminate potential obstacles for the later rounds. Not "hey, guys. The inspector is hiding around waiting to save us in the later rounds." Perhaps that's the misunderstanding?
Does it makes sense to still be laying low?: It's absolutely makes sense to me. I wouldn't find it questionable at all. Unless they came out claiming something crazy like me and you are mafia with JFG. I don't think anyone, except Viking and co, would recommend trying for another night. That doesn't mean they have to come out at the beginning of the weekend...
How believable would a D3/D4 coming out be(I guess this section is more theoretical in my predicament, as I'll clearly be more open to it): It's somewhat plausible they'd feel the need for a second guess, so D3 would be highly scrutinized but not totally laughed at. D4 isn't happening. It's extremely rare that an inspector makes it that long unless something crazy happens. But, as you mention, a bunch of crazy shit makes their story even harder for people to accept.
I have trouble understanding why any Other Inspector would still be sitting on it. Even before their Night Two guess, they would have all they need to convict two Mafia.
If I can out two Mafia in the Inspector role, I'm pleasantly pleased with my performance. I usually come running to the thread to share the news like a kid informing their parents "Santa came!" on Christmas morning.
Maybe it's just my personal playing style, but I feel the silence on this front is deafening.
One of my first posts this round mentioned a HOPE that the inspector is still alive. It's very likely Jaz was the inspector, especially in this chaos. Still, the odds of the inspector making it to round 2 aren't terrible. I'm fairly certain kdogg has some data on that?
I have this from last time I played, but I only went back five games:
I would actually call Inspector whacks/attempts a toss-up at best.
So I checked out the last five games to see how Night One whack compared with eventual Inspector in the endgame. (And, um, I'm on mobile only but I don't see a thread with "Mafia 88" in a title going back an entire year? Hence the question marks.)
Anyway...
Mafia 89?: Inspector (Tainted) whacked* Mafia 88?: Inspector Jimmy whacked Mafia 87: ??? Mafia 86: Town (SFA) whacked** Mafia 85: Inspector (SFA) whacked Mafia 84: Town (Billy) whacked
* Involved an Inspector coming out in Day One runoff ** That Townsperson voted a Mafia Day One
Five games. Three Inspector whacks. One attempt at a potential Inspector. One Townsperson who didn't vote Mafia in Day One.
I'd call that 3.5/5.
I would've skimmed through a sixth game, but I figure (1) Inspectors do get outed under pressure like that, and (2) even if I count an attempt as half a point, 3.5 is still a majority out of six.
But I don't have any recent ongoing stats handy beyond this. I'm in like this Undertaker phase of my Mafia career. No longer a regular on the main roster, just a special attraction every once in a while.
I have trouble understanding why any Other Inspector would still be sitting on it. Even before their Night Two guess, they would have all they need to convict two Mafia.
If I can out two Mafia in the Inspector role, I'm pleasantly pleased with my performance. I usually come running to the thread to share the news like a kid informing their parents "Santa came!" on Christmas morning.
Maybe it's just my personal playing style, but I feel the silence on this front is deafening.
We are pretty much on the same page. Remember that time I ran to turntable to spread the news and you kicked me out of the game? That was round 2 and I had 2 names.
I try to stay vauge when discussing the inspector and what i think they are actually doing... I don't see the downside in at least going to whatever safe distance into the runoff the town can make it. It's not that I'm expecting a reveal. I just don't see the fact that they didn't come out at the beginning of the round as confirmation.
FYI, I've came out in round 2 every time I've made it that far. The situations varied, but I basically always sat on my info until the runoffs started.... because I could and because the runoffs were going in the town's favor. It just seems practical to me to sit on the info as long as possible and gather info on all the unknown players. That's especially true in a situation like this where the mafia is confusing the hell out of things.
I would actually call Inspector whacks/attempts a toss-up at best.
So I checked out the last five games to see how Night One whack compared with eventual Inspector in the endgame. (And, um, I'm on mobile only but I don't see a thread with "Mafia 88" in a title going back an entire year? Hence the question marks.)
Anyway...
Mafia 89?: Inspector (Tainted) whacked* Mafia 88?: Inspector Jimmy whacked Mafia 87: ??? Mafia 86: Town (SFA) whacked** Mafia 85: Inspector (SFA) whacked Mafia 84: Town (Billy) whacked
* Involved an Inspector coming out in Day One runoff ** That Townsperson voted a Mafia Day One
Five games. Three Inspector whacks. One attempt at a potential Inspector. One Townsperson who didn't vote Mafia in Day One.
I'd call that 3.5/5.
I would've skimmed through a sixth game, but I figure (1) Inspectors do get outed under pressure like that, and (2) even if I count an attempt as half a point, 3.5 is still a majority out of six.
But I don't have any recent ongoing stats handy beyond this. I'm in like this Undertaker phase of my Mafia career. No longer a regular on the main roster, just a special attraction every once in a while.[/quote] Thanks! That's actually close to the figure I remember from the other sample. 60-65% And agreed, the chances would go up a good deal in this kind of game. I'll look back and gather some info too. Starting with the 70s.
I try to stay vauge when discussing the inspector and what i think they are actually doing... I don't see the downside in at least going to whatever safe distance into the runoff the town can make it. It's not that I'm expecting a reveal. I just don't see the fact that they didn't come out at the beginning of the round as confirmation.
I figured I should clarify this before someone rightfully corrects me. I said "into the runoff" because that was the point I always found myself able to hide until. If the townies are creating a runoff that isn't in their favor then the inspector should obviously come forward before the runoff starts.
Finally had the chance to get in front of my computer and read everything over a few times and here are my thoughts.
I am really surprised that Mike or SFA have not tried to fake at this point. Mike set it up at the end of D1 and given the natural level of distaste and distrust has for me, it would have had a good chance to succeed. The only reason I can see is that they were trying to run the table and get the win in Day 3. But you would have to think that given the tone now, they would think that window is closing or closed.
I debated posting a more in depth post, but I have decided against it. I am rethinking something and want to watch this play out a bit. I potentially will share prior to the day closing if I think it is safe to do so, but right now, I am trying to keep my thoughts a black hole. The only thing I will say is that they have to feel their 3rd is well hidden to have even tried this.
I will continue to answer any questions anyone has. It is not easy to hold my tongue on some of the bullshit flying, but it has been informative...
One think I have been mulling over that I am looking for some feedback; I was shocked I lived until today and surprised they have not faked. For all intents and purposes, I am / should be? a dead man. They have to know they made a mistake in not whacking me last night. It backfired horribly.
However, what is the value of killing me night 2? SFA is trying to be all buddy buddy right now and align with members of the town and Mike has gone pretty silent. While it looks grim at the moment for them, there is mass confusion as several of you have pointed out. And while I am grateful for the faith you have in me today, I am pretty sure that will be gone if I make it through.
There is an intent to this question, but I am looking for general feedback as well. I was just reading through it again wondering why they didn't even try to fake and and this option popped into my head. In that scenario, they may actually be in better shape than if they faked inspector. I don't know the stats, but faking has pretty long odds if I recall. They are both strong players and instead of forcing the doubt with a fake, they can let it grow organically and then strike from the confusion.
Along time ago in a galaxy far, far, away....The Sith Lords have decided the time has come; they must destroy all the Jedi Knights and rule the entire universe. These Sith Lords are so powerful, that they only need to work in groups of three. They arrive at each new galaxy and assassinate those that are unwilling to commit to the dark side.
The Jedi Knights have even greater power than the Sith Lords, but unfortunately, they are also greatly outnumbered. So the Jedi Counsel determines that they can only send 1 Jedi Knight to each of the most endangered galaxies in hopes that they can rally the local townspeople to help destroy the attacking Sith Lords.
The struggle is real for these brave Jedi Knights. The Sith Lords are powerful, and they use dirty tactics. The Sith Lords hide among the population, frame and kill innocent people, and EVEN PRETEND TO BE JEDI KNIGHTS in order to fool the townspeople. The Jedi Knights must be even more diligent than ever, or the Universe will fall under control of the evil Sith Lords...
Galaxy M94 is in great peril. The Jedi Council realizes that the Sith Lords will be attacking soon. They must get a Jedi Knight over to M94 as quickly as possible to fight back the Sith Lords. JR, the head of the Jedi Council realizes that they have been losing nearly all of the battles against the Sith Lords and are now running out of Jedi Knights. JR decides that he must send a Jedi Knight to M94 and hope the Jedi has enough strength to save M94 from the Sith Lords...
***ZIG HAS BEEN CHOSEN TO SAVE GALAXY M94***
Luckily, Jedi ZiG is a bit of an historian. Before arriving on Galaxy M94, he reviewed the last 20 Sith Lord-Jedi Knight battles to determine the errors the Jedi Knights have made.
In the last 20 battles, ZIG was able to break down when the Jedi's true identity was revealed and how the result of those galaxies turned out.
The Sith Lords have attacked Galaxy M94. They seemed to be making great progress. The population of M94 was turning against itself from the beginning of the conflict. The Sith Lords, even though one of their members was in a bit of a tight spot, saw an opportunity to perform a "FAKE JEDI REVEAL". They felt Sith Lord Viking may die during the first day of the conflict so they wanted to try to expose the real Jedi. Luckily, Jedi ZIG, being the historian that he is, knew better than to reveal his true identity during Day 1. He would sit back, analyze, and gather more intelligence.
***VIKING IS A SITH LORD***
Jedi ZiG was in a pretty good position on Day 1 of the conflict. He already knows the identity of 2 of the 3 Sith Lords. Plus, if the Sith Lords want to properly pull off the "FAKE JEDI REVEAL", they would have to either:
1. Kill off their own Sith Lord Viking. Or... 2. Kill off an innocent towns person and hope to sway the town that Sith Lord Viking was telling the truth.
In another bit of luck, Sith Lord Viking claimed Jedi ZiG was a Sith Lord in his "FAKE REVEAL". So if the real Sith Lords wanted to keep Viking's fake reveal believable, they wouldn't be able kill off Mike D, or ZiG as that would ruin Sith Lord Viking's fake reveal theory.
This was a fortuitous turn of events. Not only does Jedi ZiG now know 2 of the 3 Sith Lords (SFA and Viking) he would feel comfortable surviving to Day 2 and get an additional guess....
Jedi ZiG now needed to do some homework. He already knows that SFA and Viking are Sith Lords, but He needs to find the last one. He started to review all the action that occurred to narrow down his potential Sith Lord options.
Mike D: Mike D is usually a quiet person, but when he decides to speak, his words have meaning. Viking named his potential Sith Lord during the fake reveal as SFA, Mike D, and ZIG. ZiG is a Jedi, and SFA is a Sith Lord. Interesting that Viking called out SFA and then confirmed SFA Sith Lordship. Seems like a solid tactic to add a little validity into his fake theory but also create safety for SFA if the plan falls apart. This led to Mike D. I felt that it would be extremely reckless for Viking to name both of his Sith Lord companions in his fake theory, just in case the theory didn't work out. Plus, if the fake reveal worked, then all the townspeople would be looking at Mike D as the "1 confirmed Sith Lord" and vote him vote during Day 2. Mike D pushed back a bit on Viking, plus Mike D pushed Sith Lord Viking into the final runoff. Pretty solid evidence that Mike D would be a townsperson.
Thor: From my Jedi perspective, his role is now irrelevant. I know 2 Sith Lords (SFA and Viking) so if Thor is a Sith Lord, then we take a Jedi victory over the Sith Lords on Day 4 of this galactic conflict.
Jaz / Rummy These two I lumped together because they both fell into the same category. Both placed their initial Day 1 votes on Viking and didn't moved. Adding in SFA's vote for Viking, I found it unlikely that there would be 2 Sith Lords voting out their 3rd Sith Lord 6-5 with 2 potential votes to move to save Sith Lord Viking. This is further bolstered by the fact that Viking pulled a "fake reveal". Why go to that extreme decision of a fake reveal if you had 2 Sith Lords votes that are movable over to Thor. Didn't make sense so I'm guessing Jaz and Rummy are likely town. (Jaz was then killed during night 1 and confirmed as town).
KDogg: His Day 1 voting pattern was basically no help. But I did find his behavior after the "fake reveal" to be useful. It seemed as though he pushed back a bit on Viking and his reveal trying to poke holes in the information Viking revealed. So for now, Jedi ZiG would lean town for KDogg.
Jedi ZiG was now left with 3 candidates for the Night 1 Jedi Mind Reading: Danbob Potent Carini
Danbob: He's made a bunch of odd moves or comments so far. They seem to potentially be excused as rookie mistakes. Knowing that Viking and SFA are experienced Sith Lords, ZiG would normally assume Viking and SFA would have kept a tight leash on Danbob but Jedi ZiG cannot be sure if Danbob is a Sith Lord or not.
Carini: Zero help whatsoever in the game. Not sure why he even plays. First, his initial vote is based on his stupid rule, so he voted for Thor and then kept his vote there the entire Day 1. Plus, the lack of activity basically provides nothing to really look at. Seriously, go back and read through Carini's posts. At best, Carini is an unhelpful townie. At worst, he is playing the silent Mafia card. Role unknown.
Potent: He's voted for players that I know are Sith Lords, but also players I believe are townspeople. He's stayed involved, made a couple posts that have piqued my interest. Nothing concrete either.
So the options were basically a quiet player (Carini), a new player (Danbob), an experienced player (Potent).
Nothing about these three really stuck out as obvious, so I wanted to confirm the identity of the most experienced player.
***POTENT IS TOWN***
At this point, Jedi ZiG has provided the people of M94 all the information he knows. Hopefully, the people of M94 see through Sith Lord Viking's bullshit and save the day...
