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I feel that I have addressed all kdogg's points above. I am an open book. Where is Viking answering questions? The problem I have with KDogg, is that he believes his own thing, and if anyone does anything that doesn't follow his rules, that person is lying. There's a reason why he always gets into petty arguements
I am starting to believe he is the third mafia. Trying to cast lots of doubt, I still can't believe he thinks Viking is the real inspector. I am still getting a feel for the players and tendencys from not playing for so long, but flat out Kdogg is a smarter player than this. Haven't looked to see if there is much reason for this in the votes yet, but if kdogg is a townie and honestly believes Viking i wanna come up there and get some of whatever the hell he's smoking.
In other news, what are the odds the mafia let Zig and Viking live tonight? Been a crazy game, yall gonna keep up that trend
I feel that I have addressed all kdogg's points above. I am an open book. Where is Viking answering questions? The problem I have with KDogg, is that he believes his own thing, and if anyone does anything that doesn't follow his rules, that person is lying. There's a reason why he always gets into petty arguements
I am starting to believe he is the third mafia. Trying to cast lots of doubt, I still can't believe he thinks Viking is the real inspector. I am still getting a feel for the players and tendencys from not playing for so long, but flat out Kdogg is a smarter player than this. Haven't looked to see if there is much reason for this in the votes yet, but if kdogg is a townie and honestly believes Viking i wanna come up there and get some of whatever the hell he's smoking.
In other news, what are the odds the mafia let Zig and Viking live tonight? Been a crazy game, yall gonna keep up that trend
That is definitely a possibility now. But IMO that would be an extremely stupid move considering I know 2 Mafia, am searching for the 3rd, and had Kdogg listed as "leaning town" during my reveal. He probably would have had a smooth ride for a couple days if he hadn't said anything and was the 3rd Mafia because I wasn't really looking in his direction a ton. But I guess KDogg isn't nearly as smart as he thinks he is.
Voting SFA is the only thing that makes total sense right now. Not to mention he's being seeming off to me the whole game.
I do want to hear more from Viking, seeing as right now it is just Zig giving us long post after long post, without any counter posts from Viking - the other potential Inspector.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I only had roles going back to 90, but in those games... Inspectors are 4-0 (or 3-0-1, depending how you slice it) when it comes to voting opposite their given names. Part one of a series that might get renewed?
Inspector Votes vs. Given Names in Final Head-To-Head Votes: A Case Study Given names marked with *.
Mafia 93 Mafia: Thor, LD, JR* Inspector: Carini
Day One, Round Four Vote Tally ZIG - 5 (JR, Monky, Rummy,SFA, LD) Rummy - 6 (Jaz, Taint, ZIG, Mike D, Carini, Thor)
Verdict: Inspector voted opposite given name in head-to-head
[Note: This game never came to a head-to-head runoff. This is the final tally before ZIG accidentally posted a message intended for his fellow Mafia in thread, and was voted out decisively for it.]
Verdict: No head-to-head runoff, but Inspector voted opposite given name in three-way runoff.
Mafia 90 Mafia: Rothric, ZIG, Bun* Inspector: Jimmy
I have issues playing on weekends and I am struggling to keep up.
I said I was surprised and said that they would attempt to fake. I also nailed all 3 day 1 and that I was surprised that they killed Jaz. I don't know why they did that but it put them in a crappy place.
I can't tell you who to believe but I have given everything i had. They were in a desperate situation and so here we are. Again, I'll answer questi0ns if needed
I only had roles going back to 90, but in those games... Inspectors are 4-0 (or 3-0-1, depending how you slice it) when it comes to voting opposite their given names. Part one of a series that might get renewed?
Inspector Votes vs. Given Names in Final Head-To-Head Votes: A Case Study Given names marked with *.
Mafia 93 Mafia: Thor, LD, JR* Inspector: Carini
Day One, Round Four Vote Tally ZIG - 5 (JR, Monky, Rummy,SFA, LD) Rummy - 6 (Jaz, Taint, ZIG, Mike D, Carini, Thor)
Verdict: Inspector voted opposite given name in head-to-head
[Note: This game never came to a head-to-head runoff. This is the final tally before ZIG accidentally posted a message intended for his fellow Mafia in thread, and was voted out decisively for it.]
Verdict: No head-to-head runoff, but Inspector voted opposite given name in three-way runoff.
Mafia 90 Mafia: Rothric, ZIG, Bun* Inspector: Jimmy
Haven't looked to see if there is much reason for this in the votes yet, but if kdogg is a townie and honestly believes Viking i wanna come up there and get some of whatever the hell he's smoking.
Bring a cup, I'll pee in it. kdogg is domesticated nowadays, and it's really been that long without.
To start off I should have worded that different about kdogg. I know he is a very smart player and it was my knee jerk reaction to him being so sure Viking is the real inspector. I find it very hard to believe he would be town and so sure on Viking given this game.
Here is the way this game should shake out.
Today (round 2) vote off SFA. shouldn't be an issue, both "inspectors" stated him as mafia. Round 2 mafia kill - Zig Round 3 - vote off Viking (the other known mafia) Night 3 - kill me or potent Day 4 - vote kdogg, carini, dan, rummy Night 4 - kill me or potent Day 5 - will be between 3 of kdogg, carini, dan, rummy
I don't have a hell of a lot to add right now but will gladly answer any questions. Tonight is my Guns n Roses night so i'll be taking off here shortly and check in tomorrow afternoon. The last mafia is either kdogg, carini, dan, or rummy. As stated above, i think kdogg is a very strong possibility considering his stance on the inspector situation. I am a bit leery on Dan because it seems he has his stuff together a bit too well for a first time player and being a new player with SFA/Viking playing how they have would allow him to go deep into this game without much attention or suspicion. Carini and Rummy are not on my radar right now, but I have not looked back in depth to see how each of them fit in with SFA/Viking. Due to time I will probably not be able to look back and come up with anything more concrete until tomorrow.
I would also like to add that personally won't be paying too much attention to a lot of the "history" type posts. Yes they can be good information, but considering we had a fake inspector on day 1 and an inspector claim that was not killed over night, I would say the majority of the norms have been thrown out the window. Not saying it isn't good info necessarily, but I would be very cautious to base too much off of past games when I don't believe there has been one with these circumstances.
Here are some more points on how I perceived D1R4 transpired and why I voted how I did.
Going into D1R4, we were looking at Thor - 4 Viking - 4 With upcoming revotes from ZiG, Thor, and Potent. We knew Thor would vote Viking, but even before the runoff started, Potent said he was going to vote Thor.
So even though the vote was Thor 4, Viking 5, when I voted Viking up to 6, I was essentially the swing vote since Potent had previously indicated he would vote Thor. So from my view the vote was 5-5. I wasn't happy to be the deciding vote as inspector. I would have preferred to force Potent to be that but he ruined that for me. This Potent action was one of the items I ended up considering when I guessed his name as my N1 guess. IMO Viking was more suspicious than Thor so I found it suspicious that a player (Potent) to announce his vote for the less suspicious player in the runoff.
Here are some more points on how I perceived D1R4 transpired and why I voted how I did.
Going into D1R4, we were looking at Thor - 4 Viking - 4 With upcoming revotes from ZiG, Thor, and Potent. We knew Thor would vote Viking, but even before the runoff started, Potent said he was going to vote Thor.
So even though the vote was Thor 4, Viking 5, when I voted Viking up to 6, I was essentially the swing vote since Potent had previously indicated he would vote Thor. So from my view the vote was 5-5. I wasn't happy to be the deciding vote as inspector. I would have preferred to force Potent to be that but he ruined that for me. This Potent action was one of the items I ended up considering when I guessed his name as my N1 guess. IMO Viking was more suspicious than Thor so I found it suspicious that a player (Potent) to announce his vote for the less suspicious player in the runoff.
...if you claim you got SFA's name, why wasn't SFA the one you deemed most suspect in this situation? Why prioritize the unknown over the known?
This is where your claim isn't sitting right with me.
Here are some more points on how I perceived D1R4 transpired and why I voted how I did.
Going into D1R4, we were looking at Thor - 4 Viking - 4 With upcoming revotes from ZiG, Thor, and Potent. We knew Thor would vote Viking, but even before the runoff started, Potent said he was going to vote Thor.
So even though the vote was Thor 4, Viking 5, when I voted Viking up to 6, I was essentially the swing vote since Potent had previously indicated he would vote Thor. So from my view the vote was 5-5. I wasn't happy to be the deciding vote as inspector. I would have preferred to force Potent to be that but he ruined that for me. This Potent action was one of the items I ended up considering when I guessed his name as my N1 guess. IMO Viking was more suspicious than Thor so I found it suspicious that a player (Potent) to announce his vote for the less suspicious player in the runoff.
...if you claim you got SFA's name, why wasn't SFA the one you deemed most suspect in this situation? Why prioritize the unknown over the known?
This is where your claim isn't sitting right with me.
Because I couldn't vote for SFA. My choices were Thor and Viking. Viking was more suspicious than Thor. Why is everything with you so difficult? How long does it take you to realize that the one common denominator in virtually every exchange that causes confusion is you?
^^You're whole theory now is predicated on the fact that you don't believe SFA as Mafia would vote for another Mafia Viking in a final runoff. When we know Mafia vote for each other all the time.
Here are some more points on how I perceived D1R4 transpired and why I voted how I did.
Going into D1R4, we were looking at Thor - 4 Viking - 4 With upcoming revotes from ZiG, Thor, and Potent. We knew Thor would vote Viking, but even before the runoff started, Potent said he was going to vote Thor.
So even though the vote was Thor 4, Viking 5, when I voted Viking up to 6, I was essentially the swing vote since Potent had previously indicated he would vote Thor. So from my view the vote was 5-5. I wasn't happy to be the deciding vote as inspector. I would have preferred to force Potent to be that but he ruined that for me. This Potent action was one of the items I ended up considering when I guessed his name as my N1 guess. IMO Viking was more suspicious than Thor so I found it suspicious that a player (Potent) to announce his vote for the less suspicious player in the runoff.
...if you claim you got SFA's name, why wasn't SFA the one you deemed most suspect in this situation? Why prioritize the unknown over the known?
This is where your claim isn't sitting right with me.
I have all the Mafia and inspector lists back to M72.
These questions are exactly what frustrate me. They make hardly any sense, but you asked them. So I answered even though I'm not even really sure what you are asking. Now you will look at my answers and complain that I didn't answer your questions and avoided a subject that you couldn't easily explain. Then we go into a death spiral about stupid shit.
^^You're whole theory now is predicated on the fact that you don't believe SFA as Mafia would vote for another Mafia Viking in a final runoff. When we know Mafia vote for each other all the time.
First of all... *Your
But yeah, I think Mafia knowingly voting to kill one another in a Day One vote IS kind of ridiculous. And if I'm to believe your case, you're asking me to accept that. Can't say that I can.
You're asking me to accept that you're an Inspector who voted the same way as your given name - knowing that you were a deciding vote, no less. My gut says no to that. Hasn't happened in any Mafia 90-something game, nor 88/89 nor 87 given what I'be looked at so far. The record backs up my gut here, as far as I can tell.
Yet I think you're minimizing the entirety of my case here. You're narrowing the entirety of observations I've made in this game... and, quite frankly, a lot of them don't make you look good. Seems to me, you're trying to tell me here that NONE of the following matters:
1. I pointed out that Viking put up numerous red flags which would have made a "Mafia Mike D" suspect him as a possible Inspector. You're conveniently leaving that out here.
2. I made a list of players who would NOT have had similar red flags, in the event they were in cahoots with Mike D, to factor in as Mafia hunted an Inspector. Worth noting that both yourself and SFA were on that list. You're conveniently leaving that out here.
3. I offered an explanation as to why I thought Mafia XYZ would take a gamble (leaving Viking alive in an attempt to discredit him) rather than whack a claimed Inspector. You and I had an exchange, in which I explained exactly why I felt you were distorting a few aspects of a Viking setup in one of your posts. Even then, you were the inspiration for why my hypothetical was dubbed Mafia XYZ. You're conveniently leaving that out here.
You're not addressing these things. Hell, your post acts as if they don't matter. I think they do.
But go ahead... Say my posts are "drivel," call me "stupid" or a "turd." It's not like having a Mafia role makes people act like a dick, right? Just ask Viking about that.
^^You realize that you are arguing for me to play like every other inspector in Mafia, when we know our Inspectors play is routinely quite bad. I played differently than your expectations and most people's expectations. That was deliberate, and it has kept me alive.
And if you care to look at history, how often do we have Inspector reveals on Day 1 and then the Inspector does not die? It never does. That should be a huge red flag, but you don't think about it and only worry about how my voting pattern differs from historically bad inspector play.
And I call you names now because you were an asshole during Mafia 93 and because your gameplay in the two games I have played in with you has been quite terrible and annoying.
Posts mentioning Mike D according to criteria above: Viking - 5 (including reveal) kdogg - 2 SFA - 1 danbob - 1 Potent - 1 Thor - 1 ZIG -1
Perhaps fleshing this out with others' posts quoting Mike D's posts would help?
But I think this suggests who Mike D would worry about having his name as an Inspector. And that's not even getting into the content within these posts, which probably sent out red flags for Viking as well.
Summary of and/or exact quotes: D1R1 SFA: reciprocal vote, quoting Katy Perry
kdogg (1st post): thoughts on D1R1 vote to that point; suggests Mike D & SFA reciprocating makes sense & has precedent
Danbob: manual post count, worried about quiet players
D1R2 kdogg (2nd post): "Mike D & SFA reciprocating makes sense & has precedent." Concedes Thor's point no precedent last game, wonders why Thor voted kdogg if those two are the issue.
Potent: (Switches vote from SFA to kdogg) "You allow Viking to vote for you and Mike D/SFA reciprocating (which, by the way, can't be the case for Mike D since he did it first) but call my Carini vote suspicious, and you blame me for Danbob voting for me. I just can't let it go."
Thor: "Should be interesting to see where Mike D and Viking place their votes assuming the runoff stays as is. I can't complain. At least it should be good information on 2 tougher to read players."
D1R3 ZIG "When the game started, I mentally grouped players into categories based on how active they play in Mafia.
Consistent Talker Kdogg Rummy SFA Viking ZIG
Average Talkers: Carini Jaz Potent Thor
Consistent Watcher Mike D
Unknown / Noob Danbob (I assumed he would be a talker based on his heavy input on the boards in a relatively short period of time, and I think that was a correct assessment).
Viking, I find your list interesting because when I bump it up against how I expected players to contribute, there are some noticeable differences."
So my question back to you would be why is it suspicious for me to vote for SFA and not move back to KDogg after you voted for SFA even though you are saying "he is not suspicious" and I have clearly stated I find him to be a bit suspect? I find your timing especially curious after I outlined why I am a bit suspicious of SFA, so you obviously have been watching the game. IMO your post is a lot more suspicious than me not changing a vote without an explanation (which I never do) and then later not changing a vote to directly kill someone at the last minute. And you are suspicious of me voting for SFA who I also have reservations about. Me thinks you are stretching a bit Mike D and it makes me curious as to what you are hiding with your silence.
Yeap. I did as well. However, as I said previously, giving a pass given that it was a holiday weekend. Hell, I believe Mike D slept through a guess submission as inspector 2 years ago when I was ref during a 4th of July weekend. Not throwing out the data, but it is of less value (to me at least) than normal.
This is the first accusation this game that someone was trying to end a round without a runoff (and one of the reasons why Mike D's post set off alarm bells). I only know of 1 or 2 games where Day 1 has ended directly and those were ones where extenuating circumstances existed a la Superbek.
For the other members of the town, the votes on me are as follows:
Rummy - Who I think we all expected it from. But she is reading now, so lets see what she does.
Jaz - "For no reason"
SFA - who I voted for and never changed off of, and have laid out suspicion for
Mike D - For not moving my vote to KDogg over a mutual suspicion
I mean, if you guys didn't want me to play, just say so to start. But otherwise, I am going to continue to try and help get the town it's first win since the last time I was in the flipping town back in Mafia 75 (town), and 76 (Inspector).
Jaz - cryptic post about making a bed, agrees with my assessment, then says he is paying no attention to me. Jaz if there was a time to pay attention, now is it.
SFA - Did not expect to move because I believe he is suspicious, but readily admits fluff posts and stays silent
Mike D - Same reason, and he should change his name to MIA
Jimmy - Well see the last few pages.
I mean seriously? I am going to die over a grudge from last game over someone who has done some extremely suspicious things in this game at best. The only time I have been railroaded this bad was Mafia 50 (The Allstar game if you remember Mike D, KDogg, and SFA) KDogg, you should remember because it was your return game and you were one of the mafia members who railroaded my ass out of the game. I do take solace in the fact that the town ended up winning that game and I was 2 for 3 at the end of the day, but I am getting the same feeling now.
...and then Viking's reveal. I actually think I under-counted him by one?
So put yourself in the shoes of Mafia Mike D, as is alleged here.
You can probably rule out: SFA (you voted for SFA first, and he only added Katy Perry lyric) kdogg (actually thought your votes were explainable, conceded a point but kept squabbling with Thor instead of pursuing it) Danbob (only a post count) Potent (brought his name up while arguing with kdogg) Thor (argued with kdogg, expressed curiosity over both Viking & Mike D, called them "tougher to read.") ZIG (grouped players by engagement level, but not much else)
That leaves only Viking's mentions. And those contain red flags galore.
Subsequently, that leads me to believe Mafia Mike's colleagues probably didn't have any/many red flags of their own.
Players who got zero votes in D1R1: Jaz*, danbob, Rummy*
ZIG*: got one vote from me, which was teased prior to role assignment, and I moved off it
SFA*: Mike D voted for him & he returned it, only other vote came from Viking - and he faced retaliation
* These players joined Mike D in voting for Viking before his reveal.
Anyway, those are my thoughts.
2. Why I think a live Inspector was a risk worth taking for Mafia:
The logic doesn't make sense to me. When an Inspector reveals Day 1, the only have 1 confirmed Mafia, and probably some suspicions but no other information.
"The logic doesn't make sense to me." Who said the Mafia's move had to make the most common-denominator sense here? Correct me if I'm wrong, but last game JimmyThor put one of his fellow scum into a runoff and you called that the move of the game... yeah?
Unconventional moves can yield results. And let me add: We're a pretty impressive Mafia roster this go-round. Conventional might not cut it this time around.
1. If they kill the inspector, the Mafia only confirms 1 Mafia and the inspector. So as a townie starting Day 2 in this scenario, I have 8 player roles unconfirmed. 2. If they leave the inspector alive and the town still believes the inspector, like this game, the Mafia allows 2 Mafia Confirmations, a dead townie confirmation, and an alive inspector. So as an alive day 2 townie, I would have 6 unconfirmed player roles.
I would differ somewhat with your assessment. I think you understate in "1." and overstate in "2."
Your "1." (presuming Viking = Inspector) assumes that only one Mafia - Mike D - would be endangered by a Viking whack. I disagree. I say that SFA would have gotten a similar, albeit unconfirmed, target on his back.
Do you really think that Viking could have stated his given name and his intended guess, then get whacked for it... and Town would only pursue the given name, but ignore the intended guess after that?
I say that whacking Viking would have jeopardized them both. I say the stakes are higher than what you suggest here.
Your "2." is based on the assumption that "town still believes the inspector" and that names Viking gave are "confirmations." I think you're wrong on both those counts. As I write this, there have been only three votes cast: by myself and two players with firsthand knowledge of & involvement in the situation. As I write this, the undecided/deliberating players who have posted without a vote outnumber those who have voted - and that's without setting aside Viking & Mike D & their firsthand knowledge.
That is not the level of certainty you say exists here. That is exactly the confusion and second-guessing that I'm saying such a move was intended to bring about. Again, it seems to me you've misinterpreted things.
Why would the Mafia choose option 2 (keeping the inspector alive) when that scenario gives the townies a ton more information and a better landscape to start Day 2? That feels like an extremely reckless decision, and in this scenario, Mike D and SFA along with the 3rd hidden Mafia would be making that reckless decision. I don't see Mike D and SFA doing that, so that leads me to believe the only way Option 2 actually happens, is if the inspector reveal was fake. And we got Option 2 this game...
I just went over what I think you're missing. If this is what I think it is, it's an attempt to sow general confusion & mistrust of the Inspector... and it seems to be working. Unconventional moves can yield results.
Also, not specifically in response to that quoted post: On top of all that, I find the lack of an Other Inspector claim telling. You even say you don't think it was Jaz, citing that 0-for-20 recent record. I think we're all in agreement that JimmyThor would have come out with it before he died - hell, he voted for himself after Viking revealed.
If there's a player who can counter Viking's claim, process of elimination would still have that player alive... yes? Still, we have nothing. Even after the threat of a Night One whack has been lifted. If that's the case, this would/will be the second consecutive round such a counterclaim was never made. It's kind of hard to buy into "Viking = Mafia" when there's no Exhibit A to support it and we know the player who could produce Exhibit A is still alive.
Jesus hell, this game went batshit with a quickness.
Thoughts on ZIG's counter-claim: 1. Rather intriguing that this claim is coming from the player that Viking has already designated as his next guess. 2. I find that Inspectors tend to vote to cancel out the vote of their given name. Look back to the D1R4 vote. ZIG not only voted with SFA there... he made it a 6-4 lead against Viking, so ZIG's vote would have made the side of his "given name" victorious. 3a. How the hell do you see the Viking reveal go down, but not ask about Mike D for the triple confirmation... especially when you agree with Viking on one of his accusations? 3b. Even if I believe ZIG's counter-claim (not that I do) how am I supposed to accept Mike D as a confirmed Town? Viking called out Mike D, and Mike D & SFA reciprocated at first & then voted together - with ZIG - against Viking. Too much smoke here for me to just take the word of a person of interest when they say there's no fire. 4. As I mentioned earlier, I feel that fake Inspectors are more likely to exonerate someone (gaining an ally) than to convict someone. That happened here, and it's definitely a point of contrast between these competing claims. 5. On a note of self-interest: We know either Viking or ZIG is lying Mafia scum. The two of them were the first two D1R1 votes against me, before JimmyThor stacked as thitd and things got out of hand. I think it's safe to assume Mafia was aiming for me from the start this game.
One thing I think everybody can agree on in this clusterfuck: kdogg > SFA
Plus, you know, that whole tendency of Inspectors voting opposite their given name. I'm up to 6-0/5-0-1 on that (going back to & including Mafia 87) but can keep going if anyone still needs convincing.
Procedural question: Can we lock in a four-way runoff between SFA, Viking, ZIG & Mike D... then all agree to time out and kill them all at once? Like a nuclear option?
Personally, your Mike D post count mention idea is completely backwards. If Viking was Inspector with Mike D's name, why would he be basically the only one talking about Mike D? That seems counterintuitive for an Inspector. Basically, Viking is shouting from the rooftops to Mike D: Hey notice me, I'm the only one talking about you....The whole point about being Inspector is not getting discovered. Viking was doing the complete opposite.
The other posts, I believe I've already responded to in a ton of detail, but clearly you can't get past this one piece of information you think you've found compared to the totality of information I have provided supporting my inspector role compared to virtually nothing Viking has provided.
But go ahead, believe the sketchy player with no evidence. If you do, you will just look like a bigger idiot than you already are.
Post by potentpotables on Jul 9, 2016 17:18:50 GMT -5
ZIG sorry if I missed you say this, there's been a lot of back and forth and I've got a lot of meat in the smoker.
Do you feel comfortable telling us who you are guessing night 2? I figure you'll be alive because they can't confirm you are inspector. I think you're between Rummy, Carini, Dan, and KDogg.
ZIG sorry if I missed you say this, there's been a lot of back and forth and I've got a lot of meat in the smoker.
Do you feel comfortable telling us who you are guessing night 2? I figure you'll be alive because they can't confirm you are inspector. I think you're between Rummy, Carini, Dan, and KDogg.
^^I would lean Carini. Go back and read his posts this game. He has maybe 15 posts and 0 content. I'm not sure how you could be playing in a game with 2 inspector reveals and nothing to say?
