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D2R1 Vote History Jaz > SFA Zolah > Potent Carini > Potent LLL > Jaz SFA > Jaz Jaz > SFA > LLL Pablo > Dan JR > Pablo Dan > Pablo JR > Pablo > Carini Potent > SFA Potent > SFA > Carini
I've given the game a good reread and out of the runoff right now I think that Potent is probably the most likely candidate. I know why people put jaz into the runoff but I'm not really convinced he could be mafia. Out of carini and Potent I think potent has the stronger case here. I also think that his arguments on the last page don't make much sense- even going so far as to bring up gamblers fallacy. I'm open to discussion but for now I'm voting for potent.
D2R1 Vote History Jaz > SFA Zolah > Potent Carini > Potent LLL > Jaz SFA > Jaz Jaz > SFA > LLL Pablo > Dan JR > Pablo Dan > Pablo JR > Pablo > Carini Potent > SFA Potent > SFA > Carini
Post by LoveLuckLaughter on Sept 7, 2017 13:53:36 GMT -5
I'm comfortable where I am and don't really have anything more to add right now. I think the run-off was appropriate, given what LD said and the vote movements from the first round.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
And I will continue to do so as long as people use that as a bullshit reason for voting for me. If you're suspicious of me put some thought into it.
* I'm posting this via bathroom break and will be mia until ten thirty at least
I've already detailed why I thought you should be in the run-off in the first place. You haven't posted since Monday night. You went a whole day without talking. That's kind of a long time for someone in the runoff to just clam up, and it's certainly way too long between bathroom breaks. You might want to report this to OSHA.
I'm having a lot of conflicting thoughts about my vote. Part of me wonders if LD was whacked not because of his talk about Potent, but because of his push on Maddog... Period. It also looks funny to me that Maddog and Jaz each opened up voting for each other, and each tossed me in at the end of runoffs. It doesn't help that neither of them feel like talking.
Pablo, I have a question for you. You seemed pretty good with Jaz falling out on day 1 (and even the beginning of day 2) and having Potent in. Now you seem reversed. Not casting shade on you, I am just wondering why?
Post by piggy pablo on Sept 7, 2017 14:30:31 GMT -5
I was good with him early in Day 1 because I thought there were more interesting candidates for the runoff. My ideal 4-way runoff would have been Maddog, LD, You and then Potent, just because you guys had all each done something a little interesting. Well, you hadn't, but LD suggesting he might move off you qualified as more noteworthy than Jaz to me at that time. Then Jaz was involved in all of those Maddog shenanigans.
I wanted Jaz in the runoff Day 2. I think I hope I made that clear in the post where I cast my vote for Dan. I voted for him this time because I felt we were swinging too far to the Potent side, including myself. I wanted to see where the other votes would go and put some pressure back on Jaz.
Sorry, today is definitely Thursday. So, that's two days.
I last posted late Tuesday night, yesterday I worked a thirteen hour day with one fifteen minute break then came home and passed out. So yea, you haven't heard from me in a day and change.
If I get voted out I understand. It's my own fault for being a less than helpful townie and I'm in shit circumstances due to switching off of Maddog in order to get more information from the revoters. But if the townies here are voting me off over the person LD specifically pushed to be included in the runoff, the person who was part of the group of three (IIRC) that LD also said probably contains at least one Mafia... well then town that's on you. I'll take responsibility for my shortcomings in my play this game but the whack clearly points to Potent and a failure to vote for Potent based on that lies on y'all.
I would switch to Jaz for a runoff, but I'm just not getting that vibe from Jaz.
So I vote for Jaz to even it up, and then you vote for me, correct?
Potent > Jaz
Not necessarily. I want to reread both of you. We're playing with a lot of information. All of which can't be true. And And D2 last round is the most common time for a reveal, so things might get shaken up. Also, Jaz's quietness, while justified, doesn't do much to confirm him one way or the other.
I'm having a lot of conflicting thoughts about my vote. Part of me wonders if LD was whacked not because of his talk about Potent, but because of his push on Maddog... Period. It also looks funny to me that Maddog and Jaz each opened up voting for each other, and each tossed me in at the end of runoffs. It doesn't help that neither of them feel like talking.
I was thinking the same earlier. I even slightly alluded to it yesterday too.
Sorry, today is definitely Thursday. So, that's two days.
I last posted late Tuesday night, yesterday I worked a thirteen hour day with one fifteen minute break then came home and passed out. So yea, you haven't heard from me in a day and change.
If I get voted out I understand. It's my own fault for being a less than helpful townie and I'm in shit circumstances due to switching off of Maddog in order to get more information from the revoters. But if the townies here are voting me off over the person LD specifically pushed to be included in the runoff, the person who was part of the group of three (IIRC) that LD also said probably contains at least one Mafia... well then town that's on you. I'll take responsibility for my shortcomings in my play this game but the whack clearly points to Potent and a failure to vote for Potent based on that lies on y'all.
yeah, you're mafia all right. LD pushed for me *SO HARD* that he mentioned me once, faded away as pointed out by I think piggy pablo, and never voted for me. Real hard push.
I'm having a lot of conflicting thoughts about my vote. Part of me wonders if LD was whacked not because of his talk about Potent, but because of his push on Maddog... Period. It also looks funny to me that Maddog and Jaz each opened up voting for each other, and each tossed me in at the end of runoffs. It doesn't help that neither of them feel like talking.
I was thinking the same earlier. I even slightly alluded to it yesterday too.
That's the only plausible explanation to me, other than lazy and sloppy LD made it easy for mafia to frame me.
Then when you voted SFA & no one followed you re-voted to put someone in, you voted with JR on Carini, instead of on Pablo that you questioned was being saved...
I'm going to switch my vote because nobody seems to be interested in either A) pursuing SFA with me, or B) expanding the runoff.
I'm having a hard time deciding between voting for LLL (which would be the self-interested vote, since Jaz is on her now and it would make him move his vote, and he's in the D2 runoff with me), or Carini, who is probably third on my suspect list after SFA and Jaz.
I think I have to go with my gut:
Potent > SFA > Carini
Hopefully townies see that having a 3 way on D2 is more helpful than a 2 way.
I last posted late Tuesday night, yesterday I worked a thirteen hour day with one fifteen minute break then came home and passed out. So yea, you haven't heard from me in a day and change.
If I get voted out I understand. It's my own fault for being a less than helpful townie and I'm in shit circumstances due to switching off of Maddog in order to get more information from the revoters. But if the townies here are voting me off over the person LD specifically pushed to be included in the runoff, the person who was part of the group of three (IIRC) that LD also said probably contains at least one Mafia... well then town that's on you. I'll take responsibility for my shortcomings in my play this game but the whack clearly points to Potent and a failure to vote for Potent based on that lies on y'all.
yeah, you're mafia all right. LD pushed for me *SO HARD* that he mentioned me once, faded away as pointed out by I think piggy pablo, and never voted for me. Real hard push.
Dude of all the players in the game, he said he wanted to put you in the runoff specifically. Don't act like that doesn't mean anything.
I'm thinking we got Mafia that is experienced. People who know what they're doing, people who have seen me go aggressive before. At least one or two have been playing this for years.
This could apply to a number of people, but yes you're one of them. Other candidates include myself, SFA, and LLL. More so SFA or LLL than you or I in my opinion, simply because they are the "one or two" that have been playing the longest. Hence my votes for SFA and LLL in this round.
yeah, you're mafia all right. LD pushed for me *SO HARD* that he mentioned me once, faded away as pointed out by I think piggy pablo, and never voted for me. Real hard push.
Dude of all the players in the game, he said he wanted to put you in the runoff specifically. Don't act like that doesn't mean anything.
I'm thinking we got Mafia that is experienced. People who know what they're doing, people who have seen me go aggressive before. At least one or two have been playing this for years.
This could apply to a number of people, but yes you're one of them. Other candidates include myself, SFA, and LLL. More so SFA or LLL than you or I in my opinion, simply because they are the "one or two" that have been playing the longest. Hence my votes for SFA and LLL in this round.
Then when you voted SFA & no one followed you re-voted to put someone in, you voted with JR on Carini, instead of on Pablo that you questioned was being saved...
I'm going to switch my vote because nobody seems to be interested in either A) pursuing SFA with me, or B) expanding the runoff.
I'm having a hard time deciding between voting for LLL (which would be the self-interested vote, since Jaz is on her now and it would make him move his vote, and he's in the D2 runoff with me), or Carini, who is probably third on my suspect list after SFA and Jaz.
I think I have to go with my gut:
Potent > SFA > Carini
Hopefully townies see that having a 3 way on D2 is more helpful than a 2 way.
Any reason?
Yes, in my recollection, my question to JR was basically asking why he moved his vote. I was trying to antagonize him to get him to respond. I remember being satisfied with the response. As far as Carini, he has said a few things that seem to be trying to push the narrative of LD points to Potent (which I get). Some people are pushing that narrative harder than others, and those are the people I'm looking at most, because they are the ones who (to me, knowing my status) have an agenda. I think Carini and Jaz are two of those 3. I think we have one or possibly two mafia in the runoff, I just think it's looking like the townie is going to die, which is fine, it's bound to happen at some point.
1. I understand why people are suspicious of me in the light of LD's whack. He blatantly stated my name as a candidate for the first runoff on D1. It would be irresponsible of the town not to look at me in that light. I also know my credibility is low right now due to last game.
2. That said, I think my D1 vote switch post speaks for itself. You can plainly see what I was trying to do - switch my vote to a place where the revoters were not acting in obvious self-interest by voting for someone else.
3. The whack points to mafia thinking that LD is inspector. But, and I said this last game, tying people to the whack is a good way to break a tie if you aren't sure
4. If LD is inspector yet again, I'll probably cry. I've played/reffed almost non-stop since like Mafia 75 or 76 in the hopes of one day being inspector. I've never gotten that role. I also find it kind of hard to believe that he'd get it yet again. I'm not a statistician and I'm aware that, in a given data set of mafia, everybody has the same chance of being mafia, town, or inspector for an individual game. However, there's also the statistical probability of events in a larger data set which makes it hard for me to believe that LD is inspector yet again. Before I get shouted down by those who are better than statistics than me, I'll try to explain my thinking. When you flip a coin, you have 2 possible outcomes - heads or tails. That is true of every flip. However, that does not mean that the odds of flipping 2 heads in a row is 1 in 2. You could flip heads heads, but also heads tails, tails heads, and tails tails. It's actually 1 in 4.
5. I don't believe LD is inspector ultimately.
If we believe Maddog is mafia, why did he make the final comment he made? To distance is the only reason others can come up with. After his vote shenanigans on D1, I think the other mafia tried to distance from him as much as possible.
This leads me to be suspicious of SFA and Jaz.
Potent > SFA
He has already jumped on my post about LD's roles, and maybe I worded it poorly (because of course mafia wants to whack the inspector). I fully expect to be the lynch today, so I'll try my best to provide info to the town before I die.
I have also stated recently my belief that shaping a D2 runoff is the most important part of the game, this is where games are made or broken. I hope townies will take a look again and reconsider positions on my status but I don't see that happening.
yeah, you're mafia all right. LD pushed for me *SO HARD* that he mentioned me once, faded away as pointed out by I think piggy pablo , and never voted for me. Real hard push.
Dude of all the players in the game, he said he wanted to put you in the runoff specifically. Don't act like that doesn't mean anything.
I'm thinking we got Mafia that is experienced. People who know what they're doing, people who have seen me go aggressive before. At least one or two have been playing this for years.
This could apply to a number of people, but yes you're one of them. Other candidates include myself, SFA, and LLL. More so SFA or LLL than you or I in my opinion, simply because they are the "one or two" that have been playing the longest. Hence my votes for SFA and LLL in this round.
I have a feeling of the three people yet to vote, at least one is Mafia. Possibly two.
Didn't this include you too?
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm
Don't act like LD mentioning me doesn't mean anything is what you say? Similar to my post last night where I said that I understood why the town was looking at me in light of LD's whack? Don't worry, I already have acknowledged that LD's whack points at me, even if you want to gloss over that.
And oops, you got me - he mentioned me twice, not once.
This tone from you certainly points to you being mafia. But LD allowed me to be framed, which you are using to a pretty successful extent. Props for that, you and I both know the truth.
Dude of all the players in the game, he said he wanted to put you in the runoff specifically. Don't act like that doesn't mean anything.
Oh look he mentioned you more than once. Why you lying bro?
This could apply to a number of people, but yes you're one of them. Other candidates include myself, SFA, and LLL. More so SFA or LLL than you or I in my opinion, simply because they are the "one or two" that have been playing the longest. Hence my votes for SFA and LLL in this round.
Looks like he was definitely only someone's trail.
Didn't this include you too?
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm
I thought you were gone til at least 10:30?
I'm letting people assume I have IBS. And the store is (thankfully) slower than it was yesterday. Not sure how this is relevant? Or is it damned if I do, damned if I don't?
I'm having a lot of conflicting thoughts about my vote. Part of me wonders if LD was whacked not because of his talk about Potent, but because of his push on Maddog... Period. It also looks funny to me that Maddog and Jaz each opened up voting for each other, and each tossed me in at the end of runoffs. It doesn't help that neither of them feel like talking.
I was thinking the same earlier. I even slightly alluded to it yesterday too.
I'm having a lot of conflicting thoughts about my vote. Part of me wonders if LD was whacked not because of his talk about Potent, but because of his push on Maddog... Period. It also looks funny to me that Maddog and Jaz each opened up voting for each other, and each tossed me in at the end of runoffs. It doesn't help that neither of them feel like talking.
If he was Inspector, which is obviously what Mafia thought, it was Day 1 so he only had one name. Anything else from him was pure speculation and him trying to tie other players in with his one name. That's why I'm going with the player who has a more tangible tie to Maddog via voting. Jaz may very well be a townie who just made a move that ended up connecting him to our one known (or at least assumed) Mafia. But it is a move that I don't think we can ignore.
I still wonder if the third Mafia was on Maddog or was vocal about Maddog and he was further distancing with his shenanigans.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
Post by LoveLuckLaughter on Sept 7, 2017 18:40:09 GMT -5
Whoops. Double quote.
I don't get why some people are so fixated on Jaz's schedule though. He is usually a pretty quiet player in the first rounds. It is almost starting to concern me some. I get that it could be an indication of his role, and may be further evidence that he is Mafia. But to drill it so hard over and over again almost seems feigned to me. I won't be moving my vote because of what I outlined in my last post, but it is something I'm making note of.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
