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Pablo answered Carini's question with a self quote. Carini was satisfied. I wasn't. I questioned him. He requoted himself. I wasn't satisfied and asked him again. He reminded me that he quoted himself. He still won't actually answer the question. Why did Pablo lock on Potent?
Jaz is reading town and just convinced me that Dan is probably town. At the end of Day 3 I was pretty convinced that it was Maddog, LLL, and Pablo. It's looking more and more likely.
D2R1 Vote History Jaz > SFA Zolah > Potent Carini > Potent LLL > Jaz SFA > Jaz Jaz > SFA > LLL Pablo > Dan JR > Pablo Dan > Pablo JR > Pablo > Carini Potent > SFA Potent > SFA > Carini
D3R1 Vote History Carini > Dan Carini > Dan > Null Carini > Dan > Null > LLL JR > Dan SFA > Dan Dan > Pablo Pablo > LLL Jaz > LLL Jaz > LLL > Carini LLL > Dan JR > Dan > LLL Jaz > LLL > Carini > Pablo JR > Dan > LLL > Jaz
D2R1 Vote History Jaz > SFA Zolah > Potent Carini > Potent LLL > Jaz SFA > Jaz Jaz > SFA > LLL Pablo > Dan JR > Pablo Dan > Pablo JR > Pablo > Carini Potent > SFA Potent > SFA > Carini
D3R1 Vote History Carini > Dan Carini > Dan > Null Carini > Dan > Null > LLL JR > Dan SFA > Dan Dan > Pablo Pablo > LLL Jaz > LLL Jaz > LLL > Carini LLL > Dan JR > Dan > LLL Jaz > LLL > Carini > Pablo JR > Dan > LLL > Jaz
Good analysis jaz. I definitely see the mad dog/LLL/Pablo as being the most likely given how the game has played out.
To SFA, I understand your points and see how you may think LLL's vote on me could be distancing but mafia makes moves that benefit them. Knowing I'm town LLL's vote seems like she was trying to protect Pablo. Not just in terms of votes but maybe the goal was to steer the conversation away from Pablo (although that is merely speculation I just pulled out of my ass).
You didn't respond to why you flat out lied in regards to how "critical" you were of Maddog in round one.
Yes, mafia makes moves to benifit them, some of those moves include voting for each other and making huge plays to distance. I've done simular things in basically every game i've been mafia.
It's hilarious to me that some folks in this game think it's normal for me to do something that goes against the grain but LLL can't.LLL's vote for you actually makes logical sense considering the timing, etc.
Pablo answered Carini's question with a self quote. Carini was satisfied. I wasn't. I questioned him. He requoted himself. I wasn't satisfied and asked him again. He reminded me that he quoted himself. He still won't actually answer the question. Why did Pablo lock on Potent?
Jaz is reading town and just convinced me that Dan is probably town. At the end of Day 3 I was pretty convinced that it was Maddog, LLL, and Pablo. It's looking more and more likely.
JR > Pablo
If it's not Pablo than we will likly lose in round 5.
Jaz seems pretty conviced Dan is innocent.
Round 5 could be me or you getting voted off after one of us is whacked... likly you. That's why I was fine getting voted off now because mafia would have a goid chance voting me off round 5. But at the time I didn't realize Jaz wold be do dead set in views.
The best thing to do would be voting off Dan now while we can. If there is a round 5 whoever is left can vote Pablo. Which I personally don't think will happen. But i've been saying since round 2 there is a mafia between them so i'm cool with voting them both off. If the third mafIA is you or Jaz than well played.
D2R1 Vote History Jaz > SFA Zolah > Potent Carini > Potent LLL > Jaz SFA > Jaz Jaz > SFA > LLL Pablo > Dan JR > Pablo Dan > Pablo JR > Pablo > Carini Potent > SFA Potent > SFA > Carini
D3R1 Vote History Carini > Dan Carini > Dan > Null Carini > Dan > Null > LLL JR > Dan SFA > Dan Dan > Pablo Pablo > LLL Jaz > LLL Jaz > LLL > Carini LLL > Dan JR > Dan > LLL Jaz > LLL > Carini > Pablo JR > Dan > LLL > Jaz
Good analysis jaz. I definitely see the mad dog/LLL/Pablo as being the most likely given how the game has played out.
To SFA, I understand your points and see how you may think LLL's vote on me could be distancing but mafia makes moves that benefit them. Knowing I'm town LLL's vote seems like she was trying to protect Pablo. Not just in terms of votes but maybe the goal was to steer the conversation away from Pablo (although that is merely speculation I just pulled out of my ass).
You didn't respond to why you flat out lied in regards to how "critical" you were of Maddog in round one.
Yes, mafia makes moves to benifit them, some of those moves include voting for each other and making huge plays to distance. I've done simular things in basically every game i've been mafia.
It's hilarious to me that some folks in this game think it's normal for me to do something that goes against the grain but LLL can't.LLL's vote for you actually makes logical sense considering the timing, etc.
I definitely was critical of mad dog. I agree one post was probably not enough and that I've been shit at posting all game. I think calling it a flat out lie is extremely misleading on your part.
You didn't respond to why you flat out lied in regards to how "critical" you were of Maddog in round one.
Yes, mafia makes moves to benifit them, some of those moves include voting for each other and making huge plays to distance. I've done simular things in basically every game i've been mafia.
It's hilarious to me that some folks in this game think it's normal for me to do something that goes against the grain but LLL can't.LLL's vote for you actually makes logical sense considering the timing, etc.
I definitely was critical of mad dog. I agree one post was probably not enough and that I've been shit at posting all game. I think calling it a flat out lie is extremely misleading on your part.
LOL how????
You are the one that originaly brought it up as some proof of how you arn't tied to Maddog. That you were "very critical" of him. When in fact you never mentioned him until he was a sinking ship. That's not being critical. Being critical would have been analyzing his behavior and calling him on it while he was in the process of doing it.
To be clear, I'm not even saying the fact that you didn't is proof of anything. The fact that you later lied about it to defend yourself is certainly shady.
I definitely was critical of mad dog. I agree one post was probably not enough and that I've been shit at posting all game. I think calling it a flat out lie is extremely misleading on your part.
LOL how????
You are the one that originaly brought it up as some proof of how you arn't tied to Maddog. That you were "very critical" of him. When in fact you never mentioned him until he was a sinking ship. That's not being critical. Being critical would have been analyzing his behavior and calling him on it while he was in the process of doing it.
To be clear, I'm not even saying the fact that you didn't is proof of anything. The fact that you later lied about it to defend yourself is certainly shady.
I was critical of mad dog. I didn't lie. It's in the game. It's clear that it wasn't enough for you but saying I was critical of him is not a lie - it's the truth.
Pablo answered Carini's question with a self quote. Carini was satisfied. I wasn't. I questioned him. He requoted himself. I wasn't satisfied and asked him again. He reminded me that he quoted himself. He still won't actually answer the question. Why did Pablo lock on Potent?
Jaz is reading town and just convinced me that Dan is probably town. At the end of Day 3 I was pretty convinced that it was Maddog, LLL, and Pablo. It's looking more and more likely.
JR > Pablo
You genuinely seem to have trouble with reading comprehension.
Thank you. I'm going back to bed for an hour or two (it's my day off and I was up late). Right now I feel kind of stuck because if I switch to Dan, Jaz has already suggested that he would vote for LLL, and Dan would have the final vote, choosing between himself and LLL. I could also get myself killed, which would be a worst-case scenario for Town from my perspective. I can only be sure of my own role, so saving myself is most beneficial to Town from where I'm sitting. It's unlikely I'll move my vote at this point, and I'm taking a risk that I'll get killed, but I think we could talk this out a little more. Last night discussion kinda fizzled out.
He wasn't saving himself, he wasn't in danger. Even if someone switched to him in the last hour it would have triggered an automatic extension. What was he up to then? Looks like he was buying LLL time. Why? For someone else (ME, see first quote) to save her...
The bolding was done by JR for effect (so that he could ignore the previous sentence of the post of mine that he quoted. The part he bolded was a caveat where I was noting that I was taking a risk. I give many caveats because there are many unknowns in this game.
As for Potent, let me spell it out. I wanted Potent dead. I thought he was more likely to be Mafia than Jaz. I think pretty much everyone here agrees with me. I was sealing his fate by changing my vote and locking on him. Did anyone notice how my reasoning for Jaz was limp and not well-considered? Well, that's because it wasn't well-considered, because I wanted to be in place to make exactly the move that I did.
JR, you need to slow down if you're Town. You're wrong.
Pablo answered Carini's question with a self quote. Carini was satisfied. I wasn't. I questioned him. He requoted himself. I wasn't satisfied and asked him again. He reminded me that he quoted himself. He still won't actually answer the question. Why did Pablo lock on Potent?
Jaz is reading town and just convinced me that Dan is probably town. At the end of Day 3 I was pretty convinced that it was Maddog, LLL, and Pablo. It's looking more and more likely.
JR > Pablo
Wrong. I didn't quote myself in answering Carini. I quoted my post answering Carini in answering you, because I had already answered the question you were asking.
Post by piggy pablo on Sept 16, 2017 15:59:16 GMT -5
I've got a strong feeling that Dan and I have made it this far to be pawns in Mafia's game. If he was Mafia, I probably would have been whacked at some point. Congratulations to Mafia on not flinching if he is on your side, but for now the evidence seems to suggest otherwise.
I also have a sneaking suspicion there are still two Mafia left. Overall, you guys are clearing each other at such a rate that some of you must be wrong, possibly lying. I made a pretty innocent comment about being suspicious of JR and SFA because of the small amount of heat they've really had to endure (especially JR), and JR all of a sudden is convincing himself I must be Mafia. It seems kinda bullshit-y.
I feel like I'm already dead, because Mafia has done a good job of framing this narrative around me that I must be Mafia because I seemed Inspector-y and never revealed, which is an exaggeration. I basically had one detailed post about Danbob that no one paid attention to. Nothing else I did was particularly Inspector-y.
Mafia has done a good job setting a narrative in this game. JR has set narratives more than anyone.
I've got a strong feeling that Dan and I have made it this far to be pawns in Mafia's game. If he was Mafia, I probably would have been whacked at some point. Congratulations to Mafia on not flinching if he is on your side, but for now the evidence seems to suggest otherwise.
I also have a sneaking suspicion there are still two Mafia left. Overall, you guys are clearing each other at such a rate that some of you must be wrong, possibly lying. I made a pretty innocent comment about being suspicious of JR and SFA because of the small amount of heat they've really had to endure (especially JR), and JR all of a sudden is convincing himself I must be Mafia. It seems kinda bullshit-y.
I feel like I'm already dead, because Mafia has done a good job of framing this narrative around me that I must be Mafia because I seemed Inspector-y and never revealed, which is an exaggeration. I basically had one detailed post about Danbob that no one paid attention to. Nothing else I did was particularly Inspector-y.
Mafia has done a good job setting a narrative in this game. JR has set narratives more than anyone.
Pablo > JR
Okay so work through this with me. Even if you aren't sure of my role, pretend I'm town and I'll do the same.
If you think there are two Mafia left and one of them is JR, who would his accomplice be?
Do we assume Maddog was Mafia? Because under this scenario that would mean that one Mafia was already on Maddog and JR decided to put the nail in the Maddog coffin. Wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world - I was actually thinking that the Mafia might have specifically told Maddog to out himself as Mafia once it became clear he was gonna die, so that JR could then kill him and the two Mafia (one of whom being JR) who voted for him could ride the wave of distancing for a couple rounds. This would then lead to the town killing off all/most of the Zolah voters - which is exactly what happened. So who would JR be working with in this scenario?
feel like I'm already dead, because Mafia has done a good job of framing this narrative around me that I must be Mafia because I seemed Inspector-y and never revealed, which is an exaggeration. I basically had one detailed post about Danbob that no one paid attention to. Nothing else I did was particularly Inspector-y.
Mafia has done a good job setting a narrative in this game. JR has set narratives more than anyone.
Pablo > JR
This isn't really correct. Zolah was the one to say if you weren't inspector, you were mafia or whatever. LLL was the main one to push statement in round 3. Danbob soon voted for you and now is again.
That's were the main "Pablo could be mafia" narrative came from as far as I can tell. And we know at least Zolah isn't mafia.
I've said there is likly mafia between you and Dan because it's true but if you look back I've almost always stated I lean town on you.
As far as me gliding by, I think i've gotten just as much attention as you... From Zolah, Potent, Jaz, LLL. Pretty sure I've had just as many votes too? So i'm not sure what you mean there.
D2R1 Vote History Jaz > SFA Zolah > Potent Carini > Potent LLL > Jaz SFA > Jaz Jaz > SFA > LLL Pablo > Dan JR > Pablo Dan > Pablo JR > Pablo > Carini Potent > SFA Potent > SFA > Carini
D3R1 Vote History Carini > Dan Carini > Dan > Null Carini > Dan > Null > LLL JR > Dan SFA > Dan Dan > Pablo Pablo > LLL Jaz > LLL Jaz > LLL > Carini LLL > Dan JR > Dan > LLL Jaz > LLL > Carini > Pablo JR > Dan > LLL > Jaz
I've got a strong feeling that Dan and I have made it this far to be pawns in Mafia's game. If he was Mafia, I probably would have been whacked at some point. Congratulations to Mafia on not flinching if he is on your side, but for now the evidence seems to suggest otherwise.
I also have a sneaking suspicion there are still two Mafia left. Overall, you guys are clearing each other at such a rate that some of you must be wrong, possibly lying. I made a pretty innocent comment about being suspicious of JR and SFA because of the small amount of heat they've really had to endure (especially JR), and JR all of a sudden is convincing himself I must be Mafia. It seems kinda bullshit-y.
I feel like I'm already dead, because Mafia has done a good job of framing this narrative around me that I must be Mafia because I seemed Inspector-y and never revealed, which is an exaggeration. I basically had one detailed post about Danbob that no one paid attention to. Nothing else I did was particularly Inspector-y.
Mafia has done a good job setting a narrative in this game. JR has set narratives more than anyone.
Pablo > JR
Okay so work through this with me. Even if you aren't sure of my role, pretend I'm town and I'll do the same.
If you think there are two Mafia left and one of them is JR, who would his accomplice be?
Do we assume Maddog was Mafia? Because under this scenario that would mean that one Mafia was already on Maddog and JR decided to put the nail in the Maddog coffin. Wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world - I was actually thinking that the Mafia might have specifically told Maddog to out himself as Mafia once it became clear he was gonna die, so that JR could then kill him and the two Mafia (one of whom being JR) who voted for him could ride the wave of distancing for a couple rounds. This would then lead to the town killing off all/most of the Zolah voters - which is exactly what happened. So who would JR be working with in this scenario?
I don't really know. I have noticed that SFA and JR have expressed little suspicion of each other, at least lately. The two as a pair make some sense.
I do assume Maddog was Mafia. If he was Inspector, that is a whole other story and this game has been a complete farce.
I think Maddog probably did out himself for a reason. Almost everyone left (myself, JR, Dan, SFA) voted for Maddog at the end of Day 1, as you noted. The only exception is you, Jaz. So yes, I think he had at least one, maybe two, Mafia vote for him at the end of Day 1. Another reason he may have outed himself could have been to throw shade at you, because the vote changes on Day 1 made you look a little sketchy.
I'm not sure that there are two Mafia left. That's a gut feeling. I am, however, sure of my own role and I think I should probably let the Dan thing go at this point. Maybe he was really suspicious of me for voting late. Maybe he really does think it's fine to throw shade at someone in a Night round. I don't know. I can't very well expect everyone to play the game like myself and have the same reasoning. I should take my own logic less for granted and do a better job of being convincing. I can't get over the fact that Dan and I have gone at each other nearly all game and neither of us got whacked. That's my strongest read now. Dan and I are both Town, and we're here because we're reliable as votes on each other. Mafia probably felt they had it made with the two of us going into Day 4. If we team up, Mafia might just shit their pants.
Okay so work through this with me. Even if you aren't sure of my role, pretend I'm town and I'll do the same.
If you think there are two Mafia left and one of them is JR, who would his accomplice be?
Do we assume Maddog was Mafia? Because under this scenario that would mean that one Mafia was already on Maddog and JR decided to put the nail in the Maddog coffin. Wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world - I was actually thinking that the Mafia might have specifically told Maddog to out himself as Mafia once it became clear he was gonna die, so that JR could then kill him and the two Mafia (one of whom being JR) who voted for him could ride the wave of distancing for a couple rounds. This would then lead to the town killing off all/most of the Zolah voters - which is exactly what happened. So who would JR be working with in this scenario?
I don't really know. I have noticed that SFA and JR have expressed little suspicion of each other, at least lately. The two as a pair make some sense.
I do assume Maddog was Mafia. If he was Inspector, that is a whole other story and this game has been a complete farce.
I think Maddog probably did out himself for a reason. Almost everyone left (myself, JR, Dan, SFA) voted for Maddog at the end of Day 1, as you noted. The only exception is you, Jaz. So yes, I think he had at least one, maybe two, Mafia vote for him at the end of Day 1. Another reason he may have outed himself could have been to throw shade at you, because the vote changes on Day 1 made you look a little sketchy.
I'm not sure that there are two Mafia left. That's a gut feeling. I am, however, sure of my own role and I think I should probably let the Dan thing go at this point. Maybe he was really suspicious of me for voting late. Maybe he really does think it's fine to throw shade at someone in a Night round. I don't know. I can't very well expect everyone to play the game like myself and have the same reasoning. I should take my own logic less for granted and do a better job of being convincing. I can't get over the fact that Dan and I have gone at each other nearly all game and neither of us got whacked. That's my strongest read now. Dan and I are both Town, and we're here because we're reliable as votes on each other. Mafia probably felt they had it made with the two of us going into Day 4. If we team up, Mafia might just shit their pants.
Or perhaps the reason both of you are still here is that one of you is mafia? If that's the case it makes perfect sense to keep the other around to draw heat.
Also, while later round mafia whacks tend to be forward thinking I doudt any game has had mafia that didn't at least consider the way their whacks would vote in the future. In this case, Zolah and Carini clearly lean towards Dan and LLL. You could even argue Zolah was whacked because she mentioned me but she stated Dan was higher on her lists of suspicion.
To add to this, who knows if Mafia was 100% on LD being inspector. Which stenges the case for Dan and LLL.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Sept 16, 2017 22:54:23 GMT -5
As far as JR and Me not showing suspicion of each other, yes that's true. So what? I didn't show any suspicion of Zolah, Carina, or LD. I've barely shown any of Jaz or you, Pablo,...Outside of stating where mafia probable are. Which in my mind is just part of the game.
I'm not always successful but I try not to throw too many accusations around unless I'm really sure.
One thing I'm really sure of is we are getting close to losing this game.
That would be my top guess, yes. I think i've been pretty clear on that. I've been leaning more and more that direction since late in round 2. I feel I've done a decent job of explaining why.
I'm also far from the only one that thought this way, so it's not like I'm special here. Two of the others just happened to be whacked.
But I guess it could be Potent instead of LLL. Haven't put a lot of thought into that to be honest. LLL's little speech putting me at the top of my list rings of a setup to me.
You need to work on Jaz and JR, then. They've gone and convinced themselves Dan must be Town.
yeah, not sure what else there is left to say. I guess I could look back over for more info but the whacks point to it so I don't see how anyone could let him make it out alive. That alone makes him the most suspicious person left.
You need to work on Jaz and JR, then. They've gone and convinced themselves Dan must be Town.
yeah, not sure what else there is left to say. I guess I could look back over for more info but the whacks point to it so I don't see how anyone could let him make it out alive. That alone makes him the most suspicious person left.
Can you speak more on how the whacks point to him? LD seems to be mostly Potent or Maddog. Zolah named a lot of people - Pablo, LLL, and yourself in addition to Danbob. Carini seemed mostly focused on LLL.
yeah, not sure what else there is left to say. I guess I could look back over for more info but the whacks point to it so I don't see how anyone could let him make it out alive. That alone makes him the most suspicious person left.
Can you speak more on how the whacks point to him? LD seems to be mostly Potent or Maddog. Zolah named a lot of people - Pablo, LLL, and yourself in addition to Danbob. Carini seemed mostly focused on LLL.
Yeah, LD didnt. I should have specified later whacks like I did above
I have mentioned that Zolah brought up too many names to be inspector, so i get your point. Hiwevet, Zolah made a pretty big deal about not wanting to vote with dan. Dan wasn't in the runoff so maybe the mafia took interest in her bringing him up do much? She did mention a possibility of me staging things with Maddog but said she voted with me because she didn't want to vote with Dan. Her last real on topic post listed LLL/Dan as her top suspects. Then me as another possibilty.
Carini started R3 voting Dan and then went strong on LLL.
As I mentioned above, I think there was some chance mafia thought the inspector was still around. Just as several townies did. This makes a very strong point for LLL. More than her just knowing she and Dan had possible votes coming from Zolah. And Dan maybe getting one later from Carini.
I'm not saying it's conclusive proof on it's on but it does point to them both. More so than the rest of the R1 Maddog voters, IMO.
