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What’s your opinion on Thor? I personally thought he was the better option.
First of all, I'm always skeptical of Thor. I know the way he plays as mafia (as does everyone, I assume), and ZIG summed it up nicely above. That just gives me a natural skepticism of him.
In this game, he was the one who reacted to ZIG's day one move by adding ZIG as the second in a three way runoff. His Day Two initial vote made sense to me - I always believe in narrowing down the D1 final tally to look for a split and eliminate voters on one side of the tally. It makes sense to me to come to the conclusion about LD in that light, and it seems like nobody wants to pursue LLL from that side. Either way in this runoff, we will get rid of another ZIG D1 voter, which helps me personally with sequencing and connecting dots.
I don't know, I guess I feel like if Thor is mafia, he's playing me (and he's playing the town again). I have stronger suspicions about LD. His weak ass comment to my vote for him doesn't help, it reaks of lazy LD.
This is the main reason I'm not considering switching. Even if we decided to keep him he'd be no help and would likely get himself voted off later, which could cost us the game. That's if he's town. There's reason to believe he's not. If I feel someone is town and playing bad I feel you obviously have to drag them along but since I'm not certain with LD I'm not inclined to save him.
Having said that. This round feels really easy and seems like we are pretty much on cruse control and some of the given reasons for voting are shaky. That usually doesn't turn out to well for the town. I also agree that Thor is really good at blending in when he's mafia. So it's something to always be aware of.
What’s your opinion on Thor? I personally thought he was the better option.
Thor gives me a small Mafia 111 vibe.
So in this game, he switched to me on D1R1 and basically held is vote the rest of the day while everyone else switched and face planted with explanations; remaining quiet and largely under the radar. Then on Day 2, he basically comes out in full “ZIG support”. It just feels a bit similar to last game when the town had a couple players in it water who turned out to be Mafia, and Thor was the 3rd and went full undercover mode and kept voting out his own.
This is one reason things feel a little too easy. Like it was just obvious LD would get voted out this round. I find it weird how "shocked" people acted with LD's reasons for voting for you. Not they were legit but because it seemed very on brand for LD. I personally found nothing surprising about it. It's also weird when you consider that some of the main people making this argument are the ones that got you in the Day 1 runoff to begin with. When I bring this up to Thor, he ignores it and doubles down on what I already acknowledged.
I'm sorry SFA, what did you bring up to me that I "ignored?"
I felt the Jaz quote you gleaned misrepresented the situation because of the timing. I pointed this out to you and you doubled down on the "LD was mean to Zig" stuff. Which wasn't what I was questioning at all. I was saying that in a conversation about the whack you took a quote out of context and made a direct connection to LD. This gave the impression that Jaz could be hinting at LD, when in fact LD's vote wasn't on Zig at the time, nor had he even mentioned him.
Jaz's quote and LD's first mention of Zig were 2 days apart. AND, funny enough, Jaz voted for Zig 2 hours after LD's first mention of Zig being "harmful to the town." So I find it hard to believe that potential inspector Jaz was warning/hinting at somebody like LD before he even did what he was warning us of.
That's all. Like I said, it doesn't mean LD is innocent. I just think it was a weird argument to make.
Honestly, at the moment, I think focusing on the Zig voters was what the whack wanted us to do. Because I'm pretty sure LLL is town and if you really are town....
We're either completely on the right track or we're being forgiving of the wrong people.
I don't think I ignored your point at all. I acknowledged it, and mentioned that LD wound up on Jaz's final list of suspects. When look at Jaz's previous posts of things that trouble him, people going after ZIG was one of them. The fact that LD went hardest after ZIG after Jaz made that statement, and ultimately wound up on Jaz's list of suspects, could lead anyone to reasonably infer Jaz had a reason to believe LD was trying to manipulate people into voting off ZIG for a BS reason. Why else would LD be on Jaz's list of suspects? In fact, Jaz stated it as "I could see mafia capitalizing on that argument." So someone or some people go after ZIG, and Jaz's point was, I could see Mafia piggy backing on that train to get ZIG lynched. Guess who tried to drive that train: LD. The fact LD took that route despite Jaz flagging concern about it in advance doesn't surprise me either, even if he's mafia.
After discovering LD frozen the group scrambled to shelter as night crept in. In the mad dash SFA somehow got tripped up and didn't make it back in time. Was it an accident? Purpose? We may never know.
Post by piggy pablo on Aug 29, 2018 17:01:50 GMT -5
The search function on this site is bizarre. It's showing me SFA's posts all out of order.
Some of his posts point toward Dan. I'm on mobile so quoting is a little tricky but if I have a little time I'll go back and try compile some of the more interesting things he said. Going out tonight though. Maybe the desktop version will display the search results in order for me.
I think it's also possible that Mafia whacked him simply because of how active he was compared to pretty much everyone else. Maybe they felt good about the Jaz whack after no Day 2 reveal.
Could also mean LD was Mafia and they thought SFA might have had his name or at least figured something out about him based on another name.
Post by potentpotables on Aug 29, 2018 19:17:04 GMT -5
I almost said this at night, but I thought that if the whack is SFA (or LLL, the two most veteran players), it probably means the mafia is confident that Jaz was the inspector.
Hmm, so rereading SFA’s posts gives me some ideas. First, he was on the “winning” side of the vote for both Kanye and LD. He wasn’t necessarily pushing hard for either but he definitely expressed concerns about both.
He had no real chatter that I recall about Danbob on Day 1, but on Day 2, he held his vote and then voted Danbob. I’ll have to look at my data, but I recall it’s fairly regular that an inspector will throw a vote onto their given name on Day 2 if that player hasn’t received attention and also seemed most interested in Thor and Danbob.
Also on Day 2 (Page 13) he expressed in a way who he thought was town. Basically, he stated 3 of the people not in the runoff felt “cleared. By cross checking, those players were ZIG, LLL, Pablo, Potent. I know I’m town, and I think it was fairly clear SFA didn’t find me suspicious, also on Day 2, SFA expressed confidence in LLL about being town (Night 1 guess?). So that leaves Pablo / Potent. Personally, I think his 3rd “cleared” would have been Pablo.
So breaking it down
Town / Likely Town: Jaz SFA ZIG LLL Pablo
[/u]Dead[/u] Kanye LD
Unknown Thor Danbob Potent Maddog
In a hypothetical where SFA was inspector, I could see him having Danbob’s name, but based on how Day 1 went, he guessed LLL based on all the Day 1 activity in hopes of finding some sort of LLL / Kanye connection. Since he found out LLL was town, he was still stuck with his Danbob and not sure if we were on the right track with previously killing Kanye and then going after LD.
I think the 4 unknowns listed above should probably be looked at this round as there’s probably 2 mafia in that group.
Post by LoveLuckLaughter on Aug 30, 2018 1:00:48 GMT -5
I have been checking in but have not had time to type anything up because I am getting ready for Summerdance.
A lot of what ZiG expressed I am in agreeance with, and if he is Mafia he is doing a nice job of hiding it. I agree with his thoughts on Thor and Danbob being two to consider in regards to the SFA whack and about there being something janky going on with Thor. Potent feels off to me, but in reading some more recent games there is something that has changed about his playing style overall it seems, and maybe I just missed the transition so it feels drastic to me. If anyone else can speak to that, I would appreciate the insight.
I have a lot more to say. I need to find the time to get my thoughts together. I hate how quiet most players are being and it is really fucking with me. I considered the possibility that Carini somehow picked 5 Mafia instead of 3.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
Post by potentpotables on Aug 30, 2018 8:17:25 GMT -5
I keep coming back to the D1 final tally, because I need to find a way to sort voters. I always work off the assumption that the mafia were split 2-1 at the end of the day. Here's what we have:
I think it's likely that LD was mafia. I think it's 50/50 whether Kanye was mafia with him. Obviously there is evidence linking the two. They reciprocated votes on D1, Kanye advanced to the D1 final runoff, LD was sitting on him hoping that he wouldn't have to move. When Maddog moved from ZIG to Kanye, LD made the move back to save his mafia partner. In my opinion, this is evidence that moves toward clearing Maddog. It could be mafia switching to throw us off, but that seems unlikely to me.
Now I want to take a look at the D1R2 final tally, to see how we got to the ZIG v. Kanye runoff:
ZIG - 4 (Maddog, Potent, Thor, Kanye)
Kanye - 4 (Pablo, LD, SFA, ZIG)
Pablo - 3 (Danbob, Jaz, LLL)
If the mafia are split 1-1-1 here, it makes Danbob and LLL the most likely 3rd mafia. I've already stated that I get a town read from LLL.
If the mafia are 2-1 here, it leaves Maddog (unlikely), Thor, Pablo, ZIG. I think ZIG is unlikely the third with LD/Kanye, just because I find it hard to believe we would get two mafia in the D1 runoff. It doesn't seem likely that LD and ZIG are mafia together, because of LD's vote to kill ZIG that backfired. I think it's enough for me to clear ZIG for now.
That leaves me with three, based on D1 voting data - Danbob, Thor, Pablo.
D2 Final Tally:
LD - 5 (ZIG, Thor, Maddog, SFA, Potent)
Thor - 4 (Danbob, Pablo, LLL, LD)
I added a color here to indicate those I thought were cleared based on D1 vote data.
If Thor is the third mafia, D2 went really poorly for them. Thor was the first person to stack on D2, and it went to LD. Thor likes to make moves he would make as a townie when he is mafia, so I can't totally discount it. I won't say he's cleared, but he's lower on my suspect list.
That leaves Danbob and Pablo.
My personal power rankings as far as likely mafia go:
I'm sorta leaning Dan too but I'll do another read and try to get SFA's posts up. Unless you've all already read them and I don't need to
Ummmmmm. Just because ZIG seems like he is being a helpful Townie doesn’t mean that he is. And just because SFA thought I was a Townie and Zig is leaning that way shouldn’t convince you I am. I find this interaction odd. Why would a vanilla Townie who knows no one’s role be convinced enough of someone else’s role (without an Inspector reveal) that he says he won’t go back and read as long as other players did. Suspicious buttering up or kind of lazy play.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
I'm sorta leaning Dan too but I'll do another read and try to get SFA's posts up. Unless you've all already read them and I don't need to
Ummmmmm. Just because ZIG seems like he is being a helpful Townie doesn’t mean that he is. And just because SFA thought I was a Townie and Zig is leaning that way shouldn’t convince you I am. I find this interaction odd. Why would a vanilla Townie who knows no one’s role be convinced enough of someone else’s role (without an Inspector reveal) that he says he won’t go back and read as long as other players did. Suspicious buttering up or kind of lazy play.
