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I also don't buy the argument that just because mafia thinks he was inspector means everything he says is bond. Just because mafia might have thought he was inspector doesn't mean we as town have to. I would also like to see how many times inspector has been lynched day 1
Mafia thinking he's inspector is what matters though. I personally think mafia missed, but who the mafia thought was inspector seems like the best evidence you can use to guess who is mafia.
I obviously recognize there is also a chance mafia can whack at random or use the whack to frame townies.
Post by Silver Surfer on Jan 21, 2019 14:13:44 GMT -5
I really think Thor being town is huge for them. Another missed vote gives them a free kill. We HAVE to get mafia right on this vote is what I'm saying. If Maddog was town then they already have 2 with a possible 3 point lead with a Thor missed vote. If Maddog was mafia then we are still in a bad spot with a Thor missed vote but not as bad.
Scenarios:
Maddog was town
Mafia-2(possible 4 with Thor missed vote and next whack) Town-0 (possible 1 depending on who we lynch)
Maddog was mafia
Mafia-1(possible 3 with missed Thor vote and next whack) Town-1(possible 2 depending on who we lynch)
I also don't buy the argument that just because mafia thinks he was inspector means everything he says is bond. Just because mafia might have thought he was inspector doesn't mean we as town have to. I would also like to see how many times inspector has been lynched day 1
Mafia thinking he's inspector is what matters though. I personally think mafia missed, but who the mafia thought was inspector seems like the best evidence you can use to guess who is mafia.
I obviously recognize there is also a chance mafia can whack at random or use the whack to frame townies.
Yeah I'm starting to see the point now that I'm not being attacked with a terrible frame. Basically JR said something that may have led mafia to think they were a given name (New player argument). I'm going to do a reread while waiting on jtr to play smash with me.
I also think it's just as likely that he didn't say anything and he was just a random townie they decided to kill since he was fairly active
Post by Cookin' Mama on Jan 21, 2019 14:20:26 GMT -5
I agree that the potent thing on day 1 was weird and he should be in the runoff. I don't know really think Maddog was mafia though.
I also agree with Jortles with the Kanye/Danbob argument. I think Kanye is acting suspiciously with keeping on going with something that seems pretty straightforward and logical reasoning. I do think this argument has been over done but mostly because Kanye keeps coming back to it.
Something else I've noticed: In Kanye and I's first games we barely talked but in your first game Jortles you've been stringing together long thoughts and lines of questions. I think you're just naturally more talkative than I and maybe Kanye but I can't say that with the same amount of certainty. I think that's ultimately great for town and am glad you're doing it but it's caught my attention and it's something that I wanted to point out.
Ok that makes sense. Just wasn't sure what chatter would be helpful and what wouldn't.
In that case, I'll offer my perspective on Kanye's most recent vote. I think Kanye switched early for the same reason that he's always the person to tag the next drafters and try to wake people up during our Infinity Draft over the summer and our current Bonnaroo Draft. He is impatient, always online and wants to move things along. Pretty on brand for him.
Why is Tainted so quiet? Was there anything behind the fact that Thor checked in late? This early in the game, these things are usually not worth focusing on, but take note.
I think this is really the only thing that stood out to me. He says take note after saying not to focus on them. He also followed up this post with another saying his point against Thor was stupid but not his point against Tainted.
But also what I gathered from rereading his posts is that I really don't think he was inspector. He questioned a lot of people and never really tipped his hand. Even his new player point was more of a what if then a "watch out for new players" point
I agree that the potent thing on day 1 was weird and he should be in the runoff. I don't know really think Maddog was mafia though.
I also agree with Jortles with the Kanye/Danbob argument. I think Kanye is acting suspiciously with keeping on going with something that seems pretty straightforward and logical reasoning. I do think this argument has been over done but mostly because Kanye keeps coming back to it.
Something else I've noticed: In Kanye and I's first games we barely talked but in your first game Jortles you've been stringing together long thoughts and lines of questions. I think you're just naturally more talkative than I and maybe Kanye but I can't say that with the same amount of certainty. I think that's ultimately great for town and am glad you're doing it but it's caught my attention and it's something that I wanted to point out.
That mainly boils down to the size of my package being larger than yours and Kanyes.
I agree that the potent thing on day 1 was weird and he should be in the runoff. I don't know really think Maddog was mafia though.
I also agree with Jortles with the Kanye/Danbob argument. I think Kanye is acting suspiciously with keeping on going with something that seems pretty straightforward and logical reasoning. I do think this argument has been over done but mostly because Kanye keeps coming back to it.
Something else I've noticed: In Kanye and I's first games we barely talked but in your first game Jortles you've been stringing together long thoughts and lines of questions. I think you're just naturally more talkative than I and maybe Kanye but I can't say that with the same amount of certainty. I think that's ultimately great for town and am glad you're doing it but it's caught my attention and it's something that I wanted to point out.
That mainly boils down to the size of my package being larger than yours and Kanyes.
Post by Silver Surfer on Jan 21, 2019 14:29:42 GMT -5
Hey now in either game I've played I've only been quiet day 1 and both times have come out of the gate with a theory about the whack. I was right about the last one too 😠
Either way I really don't think mafia read into anyone being inspector and just killed a random townie. This could be because they thought they could take the lead with a thor missed vote. Or it could be that maddog was town and they just went for another townie
Essentially I'm saying that we're skipping what should be the first process in analyzing the whack. "Why was he whacked?"
Instead we're jumping it and asking why did mafia think he was inspector.
I believe those are the same thing. Why would you argue that they are not?
He was whacked, most likely, because mafia thought he was inspector. The way to win as mafia in this game is to either whack the inspector or make the inspector not credible when they come out. It's not a good spot for the mafia to be in to whack someone they think was NOT inspector. Usually, you run through the possibilities, anyone who made any of the mafia paranoid, and then lay out your case and all decide which is most likely. If you can tie the whack to a townie and make them suspicious, all the better, but it's straining credulity to think they would whack someone they didn't think was inspector. Maybe the inspector is doing a good job and they aren't really sure, but that's their best guess.
Essentially I'm saying that we're skipping what should be the first process in analyzing the whack. "Why was he whacked?"
Instead we're jumping it and asking why did mafia think he was inspector.
I believe those are the same thing. Why would you argue that they are not?
He was whacked, most likely, because mafia thought he was inspector. The way to win as mafia in this game is to either whack the inspector or make the inspector not credible when they come out. It's not a good spot for the mafia to be in to whack someone they think was NOT inspector. Usually, you run through the possibilities, anyone who made any of the mafia paranoid, and then lay out your case and all decide which is most likely. If you can tie the whack to a townie and make them suspicious, all the better, but it's straining credulity to think they would whack someone they didn't think was inspector. Maybe the inspector is doing a good job and they aren't really sure, but that's their best guess.
Are you saying that mafia only whacks who they think is inspector? And that it is not at all likely that they would just whack a random townie?
I believe those are the same thing. Why would you argue that they are not?
He was whacked, most likely, because mafia thought he was inspector. The way to win as mafia in this game is to either whack the inspector or make the inspector not credible when they come out. It's not a good spot for the mafia to be in to whack someone they think was NOT inspector. Usually, you run through the possibilities, anyone who made any of the mafia paranoid, and then lay out your case and all decide which is most likely. If you can tie the whack to a townie and make them suspicious, all the better, but it's straining credulity to think they would whack someone they didn't think was inspector. Maybe the inspector is doing a good job and they aren't really sure, but that's their best guess.
Are you saying that mafia only whacks who they think is inspector? And that it is not at all likely that they would just whack a random townie?
That's what they try to do, yes. Obviously they are not always successful. They have a 1 in 7 shot on night one. And if the inspector is keeping his head down well enough, they might not be able to figure out who it is.
Post by Silver Surfer on Jan 21, 2019 15:09:35 GMT -5
I just think if that is genuinely their thought process then it I'd VERY one dimensional and super easy to counter. If mafia knows every single game town is going to assume the whackee is inspector then they could so easily just send us on the wrong path. This is a strategy game after all and it would just be quacking stupid to only have one strategy
I just think if that is genuinely their thought process then it I'd VERY one dimensional and super easy to counter. If mafia knows every single game town is going to assume the whackee is inspector then they could so easily just send us on the wrong path. This is a strategy game after all and it would just be quacking stupid to only have one strategy
You think that until you're mafia and super paranoid about everyone watching your every move, and then you'll realize the only strategy is to get the inspector.
Post by potentpotables on Jan 21, 2019 15:25:14 GMT -5
The problem Silver Surfer is that if mafia doesn't try to whack the inspector, or if they try and miss, and the inspector gets to D3, then the mafia's huge advantage - know who is mafia and who isn't - is negated big time.
Look at last game, when inspector LD made it to D3. At that point, there were 7 living players. 3 of them were the inspector and his two guesses, both of whom were townies. If they assume all three mafia are living (and in this game, they were), that means on D3 the town has a 3 in 4 chance of getting a mafia, and on D4 has a 2 in 3 chance, and then a 50/50 shot on D5. That's the goal.
I feel like your continued protestations are evidence that you are town.
I just think if that is genuinely their thought process then it I'd VERY one dimensional and super easy to counter. If mafia knows every single game town is going to assume the whackee is inspector then they could so easily just send us on the wrong path. This is a strategy game after all and it would just be quacking stupid to only have one strategy
You think that until you're mafia and super paranoid about everyone watching your every move, and then you'll realize the only strategy is to get the inspector.
Okay so doesnt town win every time if it's so simple as "he who gets whacked is inspector"
I just think one dimensional thinking won't help us here at all. It's just like football. If a team can't throw the ball you stack the box. One dimensional thinking won't win.
You think that until you're mafia and super paranoid about everyone watching your every move, and then you'll realize the only strategy is to get the inspector.
Okay so doesnt town win every time if it's so simple as "he who gets whacked is inspector"
I just think one dimensional thinking won't help us here at all. It's just like football. If a team can't throw the ball you stack the box. One dimensional thinking won't win.
No, because the mafia doesn't know for sure that they've whacked the inspector. The mafia thought JR was inspector. That doesn't mean he was. For all we know, the inspector is still alive, watching all of us talk, figuring out who to guess on N2, and waiting to plot their big reveal.
I guess - you know the mafia doesn't know who inspector is, right? They are just guessing, based on having more evidence than the town has.
Okay so doesnt town win every time if it's so simple as "he who gets whacked is inspector"
I just think one dimensional thinking won't help us here at all. It's just like football. If a team can't throw the ball you stack the box. One dimensional thinking won't win.
No, because the mafia doesn't know for sure that they've whacked the inspector. The mafia thought JR was inspector. That doesn't mean he was. For all we know, the inspector is still alive, watching all of us talk, figuring out who to guess on N2, and waiting to plot their big reveal.
I guess - you know the mafia doesn't know who inspector is, right? They are just guessing, based on having more evidence than the town has.
Yes I know that mafia doesn't know which is why I'm just curious as to why everyone is putting so much stock into what jr said. We are already playing behind with an imminent Thor missed vote
No, because the mafia doesn't know for sure that they've whacked the inspector. The mafia thought JR was inspector. That doesn't mean he was. For all we know, the inspector is still alive, watching all of us talk, figuring out who to guess on N2, and waiting to plot their big reveal.
I guess - you know the mafia doesn't know who inspector is, right? They are just guessing, based on having more evidence than the town has.
Yes I know that mafia doesn't know which is why I'm just curious as to why everyone is putting so much stock into what jr said. We are already playing behind with an imminent Thor missed vote
What would you propose as an alternative?
People put stock into what JR said because the mafia whacked him. The mafia whacked him most likely because they think he's inspector. They had to think he was inspector because of something he said or did. That's why everyone is parsing it.
Im fine with people thinking Maddog was framed. But there is still a chance he wasn't and that mafia clipped JR because they thought they traded 1 for 1. If you agree that there is a decent chance maddog was mafia, you have to notice that potent switched off maddog then voted in his favor in the final runoff.
Im fine with thinking that was a coincidence. It very well could be. I may even switch off Potent at some point because Im not saying this is a lock.
But what Im not fine with is us leaving this connection out of the conversation for the rest of day two. I really think someone should stack on potent before round 1 ends. If we end up debunking that maddog was mafia Ill be the first to switch off of potent.
Its concerning to me that people haven't put much thought into this. Instead, we have had a greatly dissapointing day 2 so far. More on that below.
Kanye - I am suspicious of you, as Ive said before, because of your connection to potent. To follow up on what I said last time, you saved him from a runoff early on, said you hoped not to be framed because of it, got in a little argument about nothing with him and voted for him to distance yourself and correct for that day 1 blunder, and now you've switched off of him again because Dan has been all over you.
Im definitely noting that Dan has it out for you, and I think the JR new player comment is being investigated too seriously. I agree with you there.
Despite my suspicions of you, Im still leaning towards you not being mafia. I hate to be mean to you twice today (Bonnaroo Draft thread), but at this point I believe you have been an extremely distracting townie. We are a few hours from the voting deadline, and most of day 2 is consumed by nonsense bickering involving you.
Finally, Dr. Joe please dont miss this deadline. An autolynch there in round 1 would be a nightmare outcome if it means that Day 2 is concluded. Can someone clarify if that is what that would mean?
I've wanted to come back to this, since I was at Macy's when I read it initially.
If Maddog was mafia, I'd be the first to admit that it makes me look bad. I get that.
I guess what is bothering me is that you said me and Kanye fought over nothing. It was pretty significant to me. He voted for me initially because he thought Thor was the whack, and he even quoted Thor's post that makes clear Thor's suspicions of me. But Thor wasn't the whack. What a living player said holds little weight in the aftermath of a whack. For Kanye to cast a vote for me based on what a living player said was pretty egregious to me (in the context of the game).
He explained why he got them confused - jimmyroo and dalven vs. Thor and JR (I guess tapatalk vs. the website?). I backed off after that. But I don't feel like that was an argument over nothing.
As town, the whack is the only info we get. As opposed to Day 1, we now know that JR was town, and he was whacked because of something he said. There is no point for Mafia to whack a random townie for no reason unless that have absolutely no clue whatsoever who the Inspector is. I understand what you're saying about a single-minded strategy being easier to counter (and sincerely appreciate you trying to think outside the box), however the Mafia are at enough of an advantage knowledge-wise to be able to sow disinformation and vote for townies that they're just fine following that strategy - the risk of the Inspector figuring out who all the Mafia are, and then divulging that information, is the biggest single threat to the Mafia's chances of winning, so they want to mitigate that risk at all cost.
Post by Cookin' Mama on Jan 21, 2019 16:08:56 GMT -5
Hey guys it's me the inspector.
My given name was Jortles. My N1 guess is Carini who is mafia.
Maybe this is too early but I'm revealing now because I think they're going to whack me tonight. I guessed Carini on N1 because like Kanye said earlier he was very quiet and wasn't adding anything of substance on D1. Whereas last game he was adding substance on D1 and not being quiet. I originally was going to guess Potent because of the switching that he wanted everyone to do. But if he were mafia then that move where he was wanting people to switch would have pointed directly to maddog being mafia, which I know wasn't true since Jortles was voting for Maddog and Jortles wouldn't vote maddog off if he were his fellow mafia member.
For more proof that Jortles is mafia, what new player talks as much as he has and brings up the amount of arguments that he has? Like I said my first game I had no idea what was going on and barely talked at all. Same with Kanye on his first. He's being coached. This is obvious.
My theory for who the third mafia member is Tainted. On the final runoff both Carini and Jortles voted along side Tainted to vote Maddog off and save Tainted's ass. Also later on Carini put up this weak ass argument to try and vote for Tainted in an attempt to try to make it seem like they were connected. After Danbob and I called him on how far fetched it was, he decided to "rethink" his vote.
Like I said this may be too early but I'm the only one barking up mafia's tree right now and everyone else is way off. I think I'm getting whacked tonight anyways so I want to give town the tools to win this game. I have other reasoning to think certain people aren't mafia as well. Any question, please ask.
My given name was Jortles. My N1 guess is Carini who is mafia.
Maybe this is too early but I'm revealing now because I think they're going to whack me tonight. I guessed Carini on N1 because like Kanye said earlier he was very quiet and wasn't adding anything of substance on D1. Whereas last game he was adding substance on D1 and not being quiet. I originally was going to guess Potent because of the switching that he wanted everyone to do. But if he were mafia then that move where he was wanting people to switch would have pointed directly to maddog being mafia, which I know wasn't true since Jortles was voting for Maddog and Jortles wouldn't vote maddog off if he were his fellow mafia member.
For more proof that Jortles is mafia, what new player talks as much as he has and brings up the amount of arguments that he has? Like I said my first game I had no idea what was going on and barely talked at all. Same with Kanye on his first. He's being coached. This is obvious.
My theory for who the third mafia member is Tainted. On the final runoff both Carini and Jortles voted along side Tainted to vote Maddog off and save Tainted's ass. Also later on Carini put up this weak ass argument to try and vote for Tainted in an attempt to try to make it seem like they were connected. After Danbob and I called him on how far fetched it was, he decided to "rethink" his vote.
Like I said this may be too early but I'm the only one barking up mafia's tree right now and everyone else is way off. I think I'm getting whacked tonight anyways so I want to give town the tools to win this game. I have other reasoning to think certain people aren't mafia as well. Any question, please ask.
I guess if jortles was the new player that mafia whacked JR for, who is the third. Carini surprised me, I was leaning town. definitely going to need a reread.
Assuming a 2-1 vote split of mafia in day 1, Jaz or Kanye would be the third. After the inspector reveal I’d lean towards it being Jaz. Since jortles was the “new player”, I don’t have much suspicions of Kanye.
