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Post by potentpotables on Jan 21, 2019 19:14:41 GMT -5
Another reservation - at the beginning of D1R3 the naked voters were Dan and JTR, and the options were JTR, Maddog, Tainted. Dan immediately votes for JTR to see who JTR will vote for, and then JTR votes for Maddog, voting along with Carini, the person he would go on to guess on N1. It's possible that this is true, but why would you vote along with someone you were possibly going to guess? Maybe it was too early on D1 to think about who he'd guess.
Potent I’m not going to say that impossible, but what’s the other option? Who is mafia then? Obviously JTR but I don’t see how he slots in with an inspector JR.
I'm working through the thread to figure that out. And note that I'm not saying he's not inspector, I'm just trying to burn through all possibilities here.
But another reservation - if mafia is agreeing on JTR faking, it makes sense that they would appoint the new guy to fake because he can claim inexperience when asked why he's revealing now.
For a couple of reasons (not the least of which is the design of this game), I'm starting to doubt JTR's reveal. I'm reading through the thread but also trying to make my famous stuffed peppers for dinner so this might come across piecemeal.
My first reservation is that he named Tainted so quickly. Carini's initial D1 vote was for Maddog, then Tainted stacks and throws Maddog into the runoff. Would mafia stack like that in D1R1? Maybe, but it's one hole I'm poking in the reveal.
Second reservation is why he chose to guess Carini. "Carini was quiet" definitely equals mafia, but I'm a post count whore and have been checking it constantly. I've yet to post it because I was among the most active so didn't want to seem like I was driving that convo. But my point here is that, as Carini said, I'm always jumping on him when he's quiet. I didn't think he was extra quiet this game so I didn't mention it. I can't figure out why JTR would guess Carini, and I don't buy his stated reason.
While I agree with this reasoning, I also think that it's something a second-time player, first-time inspector might do. I didn't think Carini was especially quiet this game either, however.
What I'm also considering as a possibility is that you're in cahoots with him. JTR seems to have picked up the game and the Inspector role rather quickly, and if his reveal is fake, I think you or Thor are the only living players who would be likely to try to pull it off. In my opinion, at least. And Thor's been all but understandably MIA. If JR was Inspector and Maddog was Mafia, you're starting to gather attention and votes at, so JTR fake-reveals, directing the town to Jortles/Carini. Then you throw some doubt on the Inspector's claims for distancing.
I'm not saying this is what I believe, but I'd like for you to poke holes in the theory.
Post by potentpotables on Jan 21, 2019 19:33:23 GMT -5
Jaz in one of my follow up posts to the one you responded to, I said exactly what you said, maybe even put more force behind that idea. This is my wet dream as a mafia member, if he is indeed faking. Alas, as will come out at some point, I'm a boring plain ol' townie.
Jaz in one of my follow up posts to the one you responded to, I said exactly what you said, maybe even put more force behind that idea. This is my wet dream as a mafia member, if he is indeed faking. Alas, as will come out at some point, I'm a boring plain ol' townie.
So you're saying you don't have any reason for me to shelve this theory atm other than your claim to be a townie?
The other thing that's giving me pause atm is that Kanye had approximate 3,000 things to say prior to the Inspector reveal, but now after the biggest thing to happen to far this game, he's been all but mum.
Post by Jake Jortles on Jan 21, 2019 19:41:38 GMT -5
I was upset about being lynched but I wasn't too concerned because the town will get back on track after the whack, but if JTR and Potent are actually not connected and both mafia, I think we are totally fucked.
Can you guys explain how my response was suspicious?
Post by potentpotables on Jan 21, 2019 19:41:47 GMT -5
Another reservation - to believe JTR's reveal, you'd have to believe that, when "given name" Jortles switched with 8 minutes to go in the round, the mafia were already in a 3-0 stack on Maddog.
I certainly think it makes sense to play this in the way that we would say it's unlikely, and perhaps Tainted/Carini/Jortles did that and I'm not giving them credit for it. But for the three of them to vote the same way by the end of D1R3 is something that I find hard to believe at this point.
Jaz in one of my follow up posts to the one you responded to, I said exactly what you said, maybe even put more force behind that idea. This is my wet dream as a mafia member, if he is indeed faking. Alas, as will come out at some point, I'm a boring plain ol' townie.
So you're saying you don't have any reason for me to shelve this theory atm other than your claim to be a townie?
Well, I'm trying to go through the thread to provide my insights, but no - I don't think you should shelve any theory, I think you need to do you.
Post by potentpotables on Jan 21, 2019 19:45:49 GMT -5
Cookin' Mama if you are inspector, I'd recommend you don't guess Tainted tonight. I don't think he's the third, and your confidence that he is creates a hangup for me currently.
The other thing that's giving me pause atm is that Kanye had approximate 3,000 things to say prior to the Inspector reveal, but now after the biggest thing to happen to far this game, he's been all but mum.
I've typed like 10 things but deleted it because I think it helps mafia. I think we have no choice but to believe him because we're already at a disadvantage, especially if Thor misses this vote.
I was upset about being lynched but I wasn't too concerned because the town will get back on track after the whack, but if JTR and Potent are actually not connected and both mafia, I think we are totally fucked.
Can you guys explain how my response was suspicious?
You tried to say that me and James playing smash Bros earlier in the day is somehow a master plan to lie about being inspector. The switch doesn't even have party chat
Cookin' Mama if you are inspector, I'd recommend you don't guess Tainted tonight. I don't think he's the third, and your confidence that he is creates a hangup for me currently.
I'm open to that idea. But then who do I guess? because other the you who I know is town I don't have a strong feeling about anyone else one way or the other.
Post by potentpotables on Jan 21, 2019 19:49:55 GMT -5
Obviously it won't matter because you will likely be whacked if you're inspector, but just in case - I'd recommend figuring out who to guess between Jaz/Kanye/Dan.
I say this because this makes most sense for the 1-1-1 split at the end of D1R3.
If Jortles is the given name, his last minute switch on D1R3 screws things up a bit. Before he switches, the mafia votes could be 1-1-1 - Jaz/Maddog/Kanye/Dan in one group, Jortles/JR/Potent/Thor in a second group with Jortles as mafia, and Carini/Tainted/JTR with Carini as mafia (as N1 guess). Jortles then moves and screws up the mafia split but can do that under the cover of having no revoters in the final runoff and people would buy it, it's plausible that he would do this.
We have no reason not to believe him, and I find it absurd that some people still think jr was inspector
I don't necessarily think JR was inspector - I do think mafia thought he was inspector. Any townie really can't rule anything out right now.
Yes and any reason you have for believing mafia thought jr was inspector is literally answered by jtr being inspector. Jortles fits perfectly into the new player being coached situation
I was upset about being lynched but I wasn't too concerned because the town will get back on track after the whack, but if JTR and Potent are actually not connected and both mafia, I think we are totally fucked.
Can you guys explain how my response was suspicious?
You tried to say that me and James playing smash Bros earlier in the day is somehow a master plan to lie about being inspector. The switch doesn't even have party chat
lol I shouldnt have said that about you guys, but it was just supposed to be a joke. I dont think you guys are allowed to talk about this game in person in any scenario, so I was jokingly saying you should read his body language if you guys were actually in person playing smash together. You guys kept talking about playing smash together earlier today, so I was just fucking around.
And btw Ive defended you multiple times throughout this game even though Ive had suspicions. My bottom line has always been that I thought you were town.
I was never implying that you were both mafia. Ive stood by my best guess as maddog / potent / jtr ( jtr only post reveal).
Tbh I was also suspicious about Jaz before the reveal because he also wanted us to save maddog day 1.
Cookin' Mama if you are inspector, I'd recommend you don't guess Tainted tonight. I don't think he's the third, and your confidence that he is creates a hangup for me currently.
I'm open to that idea. But then who do I guess? because other the you who I know is town I don't have a strong feeling about anyone else one way or the other.
Post by Silver Surfer on Jan 21, 2019 19:56:41 GMT -5
Fuck it I'll type what I thought would help mafia but frame it in a way where it won't.
If JTR gets whacked there are 3 scenarios:
1) he was inspector and is right 2) mafia whacked him to frame him as inspector and he is town 3) mafia whacked him to frame him as inspector and is mafia (essentially saving carini?)
If JTR doesn't gets whacked there are 2 scenarios
1) he is inspector but mafia wants to discredit his "coming out" and try to survive off of carini and whoever the other is 2) he is mafia
You tried to say that me and James playing smash Bros earlier in the day is somehow a master plan to lie about being inspector. The switch doesn't even have party chat
lol I shouldnt have said that about you guys, but it was just supposed to be a joke. I dont think you guys are allowed to talk about this game in person in any scenario, so I was jokingly saying you should read his body language if you guys were actually in person playing smash together. You guys kept talking about playing smash together earlier today, so I was just fucking around.
And btw Ive defended you multiple times throughout this game even though Ive had suspicions. My bottom line has always been that I thought you were town.
I was never implying that you were both mafia. Ive stood by my best guess as maddog / potent / jtr ( jtr only post reveal).
Tbh I was also suspicious about Jaz before the reveal because he also wanted us to save maddog day 1.
Yeah but you also called me a bad townie which means I was helping you. Which means you could have been saying that to keep me going thus distracting town
Post by Cookin' Mama on Jan 21, 2019 19:58:51 GMT -5
I felt Carini to be quiet and also his discussions to be nonproductive. He felt to me to be just padding his post count numbers which is why I guessed him. Last game, and I checked this before I sent in my guess to LD, he was talking more and leading the discussion and did some useful questioning. That went into my thinking about asking as well.
I don't necessarily think JR was inspector - I do think mafia thought he was inspector. Any townie really can't rule anything out right now.
Yes and any reason you have for believing mafia thought jr was inspector is literally answered by jtr being inspector. Jortles fits perfectly into the new player being coached situation
This is why I will reiterate that I think you are distracting town. You are about to get into a pointless back and forth with potent because you dont understand that if JTR was actually the real inspector, it would have absolutely nothing to do with what mafia thought after day 1.
A half page could be taken up by this misunderstanding and it will take away from us looking at the potent / maddog connection.
The only way I think you could be mafia is if someone brilliantly told you to just go in and fuck shit up to muddy the picture.
Yes and any reason you have for believing mafia thought jr was inspector is literally answered by jtr being inspector. Jortles fits perfectly into the new player being coached situation
This is why I will reiterate that I think you are distracting town. You are about to get into a pointless back and forth with potent because you dont understand that if JTR was actually the real inspector, it would have absolutely nothing to do with what mafia thought after day 1.
A half page could be taken up by this misunderstanding and it will take away from us looking at the potent / maddog connection.
The only way I think you could be mafia is if someone brilliantly told you to just go in and fuck shit up to muddy the picture.
Where am I going to argue with potent? Lol
Why the hell would I forget about MY OWN theory man?
Youre back is against the wall man you gotta try a little harder
I'm open to that idea. But then who do I guess? because other the you who I know is town I don't have a strong feeling about anyone else one way or the other.
How do you know Potent is town?
Jortles said that potent and I were mafia after I revealed. I know I'm inspector and I know Jortles and Carini are mafia. So unless Jortles is just throwing his other mafia member under the bus then Potent is town.
