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Carini is one of the names being thrown out as possibly the 3rd mafia. Based on this one vote, I think it makes it likely he is town. Let me explain.
If Carini was the 3rd Mafia with Danbob and Pablo, this would mean that when Danbob placed his initial Day 2 vote, he placed it on fellow Mafia Carini. Yes, Mafia vote for their own all the time, yada yada yada. But at this point in the round, Danbob’s vote would have put all 3 mafia up at 1 vote with only 1 person already in the runoff, meaning those 1 vote players (3 of 5 were Mafia) with potentially 2-3 players still needing to get added (yes, switches, blah), but it seems like to big a risk when Mafia was teetering on the edge of making it to Day 3 unscathed.
This is great and all but Danbob was literally on Pablo to kill him.
What do you mean by this? Are you implying Pablo and Dan aren't mafia or what are you meaning?
What do you mean by this? Are you implying Pablo and Dan aren't mafia or what are you meaning?
No I'm saying that they are. So Danbob voting for Carini initially in D2 wouldn't be out of character if Carini were mafia.
Analyzing that Day 1 move a bit further:
Dan knew Pablo would vote for Potent, so he was putting it in someone else's hands to make that decision. Someone else was Carini, the 3rd vote.
Pretending Carini is Town, this would have allowed Dan to put the final decision in someone else's hands since it was obvious Pablo would even it up. We almost always know those first two votes are going to be 1 then 1 to even it up. Dan probably felt like there was a 50/50 shot of the third person choosing incorrectly and he got to slightly distance himself.
In fact, had he voted for Potent there, it would have been a major red flag, because then Town Carini would have no option but to even up and Town would get to learn anything from his vote. So he HAD to vote Pablo there unless he wanted to wait to be the decision maker.
Now pretending Carini is mafia, Dan may have known the final decision was in Mafia hands anyways. Would be pretty wild if Mafia had all 3 of those final votes though lol.
Pablo didn’t have a revote D1R4, it was Danbob, ZIG, Carini, in that order. Danbob as mafia going first and voting for his own makes sense because the second person (me in this situation) would almost always even it up giving Carini the deciding vote. it allows the mafia to force someone to place a vote on the innocent while still allowing the Mafia a vote that they can switch if necessary. It ended up not being necessary as Agarr made a switch to “save” Pablo.
Pablo didn’t have a revote D1R4, it was Danbob, ZIG, Carini, in that order. Danbob as mafia going first and voting for his own makes sense because the second person (me in this situation) would almost always even it up giving Carini the deciding vote. it allows the mafia to force someone to place a vote on the innocent while still allowing the Mafia a vote that they can switch if necessary. It ended up not being necessary as Agarr made a switch to “save” Pablo.
That's my bad. Going off memory I recall a vote from Pablo that was like "Potent, obviously," but that may have been the round before.
No I'm saying that they are. So Danbob voting for Carini initially in D2 wouldn't be out of character if Carini were mafia.
Analyzing that Day 1 move a bit further:
Dan knew Pablo would vote for Potent, so he was putting it in someone else's hands to make that decision. Someone else was Carini, the 3rd vote.
Pretending Carini is Town, this would have allowed Dan to put the final decision in someone else's hands since it was obvious Pablo would even it up. We almost always know those first two votes are going to be 1 then 1 to even it up. Dan probably felt like there was a 50/50 shot of the third person choosing incorrectly and he got to slightly distance himself.
In fact, had he voted for Potent there, it would have been a major red flag, because then Town Carini would have no option but to even up and Town would get to learn anything from his vote. So he HAD to vote Pablo there unless he wanted to wait to be the decision maker.
Now pretending Carini is mafia, Dan may have known the final decision was in Mafia hands anyways. Would be pretty wild if Mafia had all 3 of those final votes though lol.
Danbob's reasoning also could've been, "fuck it, if Pablo dies he dies I don't want to risk saving him and nailed for that. And if he lives this'll give us legit distance." He may have not even thought about the other two votes.
Post by Jake Jortles on Feb 7, 2019 11:36:04 GMT -5
Not sure if this is worth noting, but Carini hasn't posted since I revealed. He voted for me unnecessarily last game in round two to put me into a runoff before JTR revealed, so he could do that with Dan now.
I think I also mentioned before that I was leaning Town on him, which could be why Pablo and Dan are comfy going out easily.
+ He put that final vote on Potent in Day 1 to "not give Jaz what he wanted."
Basically I'm skeptical of everyone and have no further proof of anything lol. Heading to lunch now and should be whacked by the time I get back.
Vote History Zig > JR Kanye > Danbob Jortles > Pablo JR > Kanye JTR > Kanye Pablo > Agarrr Danbob > Carini Carini > Danbob Agarrr > JR JR > Kanye > Pablo JR > Kanye > Pablo > null > Zig Pablo > Agarrr > JR Zig > JR > null Agarrr > JR > Danbob JR > Kanye > Pablo > null > Zig > Danbob Zig > JR > null > Danbob
Last Edit: Feb 7, 2019 12:11:51 GMT -5 by LD - Back to Top
Refer to my vote post in day 2. I clearly called out both Dan and Pablo. I obviously believed Jortles and was at work at the time of the reveal. I didn't have time to read through and properly respond and my vote was in the right place.
Come day 4 I'll provide the rest of my thoughts, for now I feel we need to eliminate Pablo quickly and see who the 3rd mafia decides to off.
We need everyone to vote and lock. My guess is Pablo will be ghosting us and there’s not really much else to talk about until Day 4.
I think the rule says everyone needs to vote except the people involved if there's a majority or something
I have some things I want to talk about but don't know if it's wise to bring up. However I don't think I've left enough info to lead town to figure out who I think is third if I get whacked
We need everyone to vote and lock. My guess is Pablo will be ghosting us and there’s not really much else to talk about until Day 4.
I think the rule says everyone needs to vote except the people involved if there's a majority or something
I have some things I want to talk about but don't know if it's wise to bring up. However I don't think I've left enough info to lead town to figure out who I think is third if I get whacked
I know the rules. As long as everyone minus Pablo votes for Pablo and locks, the dat ends.
If you have something you want to say about the 3rd, I suggest discussing. There’s not really as much manipulation available for Mafia with just 1 day left and heading into Day 4.
Post by Silver Surfer on Feb 7, 2019 16:12:16 GMT -5
I have hunch that JTR is #3. He was the only person voting for me that wasnt JR (his vote made sense since I had a theory that he might be mafia). I think it is very strange to vote on me with his reasoning essentially defending JR. Now that we know Pablo and Dan were mafia it only leaves room for one more person. I could see JTR defending JR if they were both mafia together but they aren't and can't be. However it makes total and complete sense for Pablo and Dan to tell jtr to try to throw me in the runoff after i had made a whole post calling both of them out. In the post was the theory that JR could be mafia and so it wouldn't been very easy for them to tell him to use the reasoning of defending JR. This keeps JTR away from both Pablo and Dan while still attempting to get rid of me.
It's also super strange that JTR hasn't contributed most of this game and has just now started to post theories about who the 3rd would be after both of his teammates are gone. This is the only time all game he has played town and it's right when he would need to the most.
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Post by Cookin' Mama on Feb 7, 2019 17:15:33 GMT -5
When’s this JTR hasn’t contributed thing gonna die. I have been around since D2. There’s other players that have contributed just as much and some less than me.
When’s this JTR hasn’t contributed thing gonna die. I have been around since D2. There’s other players that have contributed just as much and some less than me.
