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This round is scheduled to end on Wednesday, May 29th at 6 P.M. EST
I'm not saying that this is what happened, but if SFA and Potent are Mafia together, they did a wonderful job of keeping Potent alive, and now that I see it I wish I or someone else had made an additional move. If I'm them two (regardless if Thor is the third or not), I can look at the votes on Potent and see how we're in the position to both save him by making the exact moves they made. Potent's "I'm wary of voting with SFA and Maddog" post and SFA's "oh, maybe I really should have voted for Potent" easily serves as subtle distancing while their actual moves keep Potent from going forward and gives the town info from only one person (Maddog).
Lol You make it sound like it's a subtle sceme when i've openly said I didn't think Potent was the way to go this round because of all info available. I think it would maybe be unwise to let him live in later rounds but there is a good chance this whack was partially to set him up. Goid enough where I thought it wise not to possible play onto what the mafia wanted.
I've openly said all of this. And i'm back to voting how I said I was leaning most of the round. It's not all on me that everyone dicked around and didn't shape a runoff more to their liking.
I was always taught by people playing longer than me that it isnt worth it to move forward thinking a Day 1 lynch was Mafia.
That's a good rule of thumb when there's no in game evidence otherwise, yes. That's also typically the norm.
I think when a whack does tie to the day 1 lynch that obviously changes thing. At least where you don't write off the possibility entirely. In theory you'd like to try to keep all options in mind.
Overall, I think the problem here is the whack is fucking bullshit from a townie perspective. Probably best not to get too married to any one theory on it
FYI, my Internet is out and won't be fixed until the repair people come tomorrow aftetnoon. I'll try to particulate on my phone bUt i'm not bending over fucking backwards. Already irritated with trying.
This means that there are two mafia out of Kanye, JTR, Jaz, Maddog, SFA, Agar, and Jortles. If you are town you can eliminate yourself. In this case I will take my name out since I am town. So there is a 2/5 chance of nailing one here. I already mentioned I lean town on jortles and SFA so honestly it's down to 2/3 for me (JTR, Agar, and Jaz).
Maybe not implicated directly but based on voting he is in a small group of mafia possibility imo
Actually, it's only ignoring the whack if we go by your guidelines.
Was there ever an explanation for the whack pointing to JTR or myself?
Forgot to address this.
First, I don't think we have anything close to a real explanation of the whack.
One way to look at it is who Tainted voted against or, who the mafia possible thought was voting against them: you, Me. Jaz, Thor, Maddawg
IF Thor is mafia, 2 in that group would be typical.
As for Dan voters: JTR sticks out as the main one in that group who's vote was passive against Thor... because Maddawg voted Dan at the start of the round.
So it's not that the whack points at JTR as much as it softens the rest of that grouping... based on the hI story and timing of Day 1. Although I think it's important to keep in mind that mafia could have felt the walls caving in and took steps to further distence themselves from Thor. In that case, we'd have two mafia in the Thor voters.
That's one way too look at all this. I don't think it's perfect because the whack doesn't give us much. It's very contradictory.... likly on purpose.
As to you specifically, I think you're maybe just in a bad grouping. I haven't really pushed to get you in a run-off. Although I agreed with Jaz, still do, that there's a mafia in our group. It's not me and i'm feeling pretty sure it's not Maddawg. That leaves you and Jaz.
Was there ever an explanation for the whack pointing to JTR or myself?
Forgot to address this.
First, I don't think we have anything close to a real explanation of the whack.
One way to look at it is who Tainted voted against or, who the mafia possible thought was voting against them: you, Me. Jaz, Thor, Maddawg
IF Thor is mafia, 2 in that group would be typical.
As for Dan voters: JTR sticks out as the main one in that group who's vote was passive against Thor... because Maddawg voted Dan at the start of the round.
So it's not that the whack points at JTR as much as it softens the rest of that grouping... based on the hI story and timing of Day 1. Although I think it's important to keep in mind that mafia could have felt the walls caving in and took steps to further distence themselves from Thor. In that case, we'd have two mafia in the Thor voters.
That's one way too look at all this. I don't think it's perfect because the whack doesn't give us much. It's very contradictory.... likly on purpose.
As to you specifically, I think you're maybe just in a bad grouping. I haven't really pushed to get you in a run-off. Although I agreed with Jaz, still do, that there's a mafia in our group. It's not me and i'm feeling pretty sure it's not Maddawg. That leaves you and Jaz.
Not sure if this matters, but I voted for Dan with the 3rd post of this whole game, before anyone else.
I think we just have different instincts about D1. My feeling was always that Mafia was comfy and that Dan and Thor were both Town. And I had that feeling up until Potent switched. Now its possible to me that Potent did what he felt he had to do to save a Mafia teammate, or he was being a great Townie and potentially fucked up Mafias comfy routine. Then theres also a good chance that Potent just switched from Town to Town. Based on my lack of confidence in Thor or Dan being mafia, I don’t think we have nearly enough evidence to consider vote splits as a more interesting variable than who we think tainted was hinting at or even how people are behaving. And Im definitely not a believer that Inspector needs to vote against their name on D1, though stats would change my mind instantly on that.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on May 30, 2019 6:53:04 GMT -5
I'm not wasting my time repeating the same shit over and over but to clarify something...
I'm not saying inspector has to 100% do anything. I was giving plusable ways mafia or inspector could read/react in a situation. Because there are certain patterns there. The important thing to remember is just because the inspector made a certain move it doesn't mean the mafia responded accordingly.
In my example, that would be mafia whacking someone voting against Thor because if he's mafia it stands to reason they'd whack a Thor voter. That's all. It doesn't matter why Tainted did it or if he's even inspector. It's what the mafia was possible thinking that's important.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on May 30, 2019 7:07:27 GMT -5
I keep adding "ifs and "maybes" to make clear I don't know what the truth is here. What i'm trying to do is give the townies the best way to narrow things down. So next round, after more info, we have better odds and at least gotten rid of someone with red flags.
That's the main reason I advocated for not focusing on Potent this round because it looked like a possible set-up. Maybe another whack well prove me wrong there but i'd rather focus elsewhere and not possible waste an early round playing right into the mafia's hands.
Post by Jake Jortles on May 30, 2019 8:33:40 GMT -5
SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal to be clear, I'm not attacking, or saying that I'm suspicious of, you or your way of thinking at this point.
I'm on the defensive right now with a 50/50 shot of being lynched. Maybe better than 50% due to my nature as an antagonist and mud-slinger. I'm trying to make it clear that it is completely ok for me to think the way I am about the whack. It's ok for me to think we should have pressed Potent or Kanye harder due to my interpretation of the whack. And it is also ok for you to think the way you are.
I get very nervous when yourself, Jaz or Dan begin to shape the narrative of how the Town ought to be thinking, especially pre-reveal. The newest wave of players may have played enough for this to no longer be a true concern, but I'm still worried that your established credibility as a vet leaves some of us nervous about thinking independently and going against the grain. This could be extremely dangerous if you were Mafia.
Post by potentpotables on May 30, 2019 9:14:39 GMT -5
Well, Jaz seems to be onto us, so maybe he's the whack. If we think inspector is still alive, I think Agarrrrrrrrrr, Kanye, or Jortles should be considered. We can wait to see if Jortles is voted out here.
Well, Jaz seems to be onto us, so maybe he's the whack. If we think inspector is still alive, I think Agarrrrrrrrrr, Kanye, or Jortles should be considered. We can wait to see if Jortles is voted out here.
I was just on Reddit about the Trump thing and saw the let's just say IT MOVED ME TO A BIGGER HOUSE Simpsons reference, and who should reply to it but tainted. Now here I am another person saying the quiet part loud.
Tbf I've wanted to do that "fake mistake" thing to trick people before so idk what to think
I just woke up so my comprehension skillet aren't totally there so could you run through this idea for me? At the very least that means potent is scum right?
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
Or do you mean as mafia, to try and paint teammates as town?
Yeah I think that's what he means. Interesting strategy for sure. I find it odd that he is discounting the post though. And of course potent isn't gonna say anything now. I'm thinking it could also be to frame someone. Honestly I'm just more confused now lol
SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal to be clear, I'm not attacking, or saying that I'm suspicious of, you or your way of thinking at this point.
I'm on the defensive right now with a 50/50 shot of being lynched. Maybe better than 50% due to my nature as an antagonist and mud-slinger. I'm trying to make it clear that it is completely ok for me to think the way I am about the whack. It's ok for me to think we should have pressed Potent or Kanye harder due to my interpretation of the whack. And it is also ok for you to think the way you are.
I get very nervous when yourself, Jaz or Dan begin to shape the narrative of how the Town ought to be thinking, especially pre-reveal. The newest wave of players may have played enough for this to no longer be a true concern, but I'm still worried that your established credibility as a vet leaves some of us nervous about thinking independently and going against the grain. This could be extremely dangerous if you were Mafia.
I'm really not saying otherwise. I think the only thing I strongly disagreed with you on is saying we should "disregard all thoughts of Thor being mafia" Paraphrased, but close to your words. The reason I said i'm not going to repeat myself is I've tried all round to use language that shows I'm not deadset on one course of action or that my theories are perfect. So saying i'm dead set on a single narrative isn't correct. I'm just trying to get what is best out of the shitty info our possible inspector left us.
I don't really care if your focus doesn't line-up with mine. That's fine. But when there is evidence Thor could tie with the whack it's dangerous for the town to start overlooking it. That's really the main idea I was putting forward.
What narrative am I shaping exactly? Jaz put forward getting a Dan voter in the runoff, which is based on fairy normal townie strategy. Kanye made the most comprehensive post regarding Thor possibly being mafia. I've mostly been saying I think there was something odd going on in round one and the whack seems to point at it as well.
I'm not beating people over the head to vote for certain people. Maybe beating people over the head not to tie ourselves down to a possible set-up. Which is just me trying to be a good townie. Hell, I wasn't even overly active in trying to shape this runoff but when folks got indecisive I acted and did what I thought was best for this moment.
You'd have to actually be going against the grain to worry about people comin down on you for it. Wanting the most obvious names linked to a day one whack is pretty typical. For good reason, normally.
This round is scheduled to end on Wednesday, May 29th at 6 P.M. EST
I'm not saying that this is what happened, but if SFA and Potent are Mafia together, they did a wonderful job of keeping Potent alive, and now that I see it I wish I or someone else had made an additional move. If I'm them two (regardless if Thor is the third or not), I can look at the votes on Potent and see how we're in the position to both save him by making the exact moves they made. Potent's "I'm wary of voting with SFA and Maddog" post and SFA's "oh, maybe I really should have voted for Potent" easily serves as subtle distancing while their actual moves keep Potent from going forward and gives the town info from only one person (Maddog).
I’m assuming this is the point of reference for Jaz being “on to” them. So if it’s a real mistake, SFA/Potent/???. If it’s staged, then still Potent, but SFA is a misdirect.
Either way, idk why Potent would put his name out there and essentially reveal himself as mafia when he’s safe at least for the time being.
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
Not sure this means anything but Maddog made himself be the deciding vote in the last runoff on D1 until Potent's switch and now he's the star of the show again in the final runoff of D2. I also really don't understand how you give both of the people in the runoff a vote.
Made myself is a strong phrase, I openly stated before it happened that it was dumb and I didn't want to be in that situation.
You still went out of your way on D1 to vote first and, without a switch, made the rest of it useless since we knew where Thor was going to vote. Obviously this isn't necessarily indicative, just wanted to point it out.
I’m assuming this is the point of reference for Jaz being “on to” them. So if it’s a real mistake, SFA/Potent/???. If it’s staged, then still Potent, but SFA is a misdirect.
Either way, idk why Potent would put his name out there and essentially reveal himself as mafia when he’s safe at least for the time being.
I've been mafia with Potent. I helped vote him off in the second round. Last time I was mafia I advocated pushing mafia forward in runoffs, etc. This is literally the opposite of how I am as mafia.
Tbh the only reason why I can see for mafia staging that at this point would be as a last ditch effort to save Jortles (just based on the language of Potent’s post). Just my thought process, but if that’s the case, I’m assuming things would have to already be in kinda rough shape for them to draw out such a wild move this early (I.e., I think that’d suggest Thor was mafia, and they’re already at risk of falling down to 1 man standing).
Yeah idk. Only thing that seems more or less clear is that Potent is mafia.
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
Tbh the only reason why I can see for mafia staging that at this point would be as a last ditch effort to save Jortles (just based on the language of Potent’s post). Just my thought process, but if that’s the case, I’m assuming things would have to already be in kinda rough shape for them to draw out such a wild move this early (I.e., I think that’d suggest Thor was mafia, and they’re already at risk of falling down to 1 man standing).
Yeah idk. Only thing that seems more or less clear is that Potent is mafia.
Tbh the only reason why I can see for mafia staging that at this point would be as a last ditch effort to save Jortles (just based on the language of Potent’s post). Just my thought process, but if that’s the case, I’m assuming things would have to already be in kinda rough shape for them to draw out such a wild move this early (I.e., I think that’d suggest Thor was mafia, and they’re already at risk of falling down to 1 man standing).
Yeah idk. Only thing that seems more or less clear is that Potent is mafia.
There's a reason I keep saying Thor is mafia.
Because you know and you are teammates with him? If Thor was mafia then that means potent voted him out which is totally up your alley. Plus coming to terms of tainted leading to Thor by votes is something you were very good at when we played together
