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I wouldn't be surprised if we have significantly less people voting this year as compared to 2024.
I wouldn't be surprised if we have a jump in the percentage of votes going to third party candidates.
I wouldn't be surprised if we get zero debates this year.
I wouldn't be surprised if a significant chunk of voters are so non-committal to one candidate or the other that they literally make their mind up the week of the election based on how things are going at that very moment.
Depending on the definition of “significant,” I’d be surprised if any of those things *aren’t* the case. 2024 was a ridiculous turnout year. There’s a much more notable third party candidate than there’s been since Perot. Trump has no interest in a debate and might have trouble even scheduling one. And a substantial number of people “make up their minds” the week of the election every year (though I would argue these are people who already lean one way or the other and it’s more about making up their mind whether to vote at all).
You're ruining jackicker's fun. He thinks these are bold predictions.
If I'm wrong about 4, it's because those undecided people didn't vote at all.
I can't imagine a scenario in which more people show up in 2024 than 2020. The pro-Trump and anti-Trump sentiments were at astronomical levels that won't be reached again. Most people don't even want to pay attention to the election anymore. They don't see the point in it.
You are grossly underestimating the number of women (and men) that will come out to vote to protect and re-institute women's reproductive rights.
Head shaking that you would overlook this in your surprise fun-filled breakdown.
If I'm wrong about 4, it's because those undecided people didn't vote at all.
I can't imagine a scenario in which more people show up in 2024 than 2020. The pro-Trump and anti-Trump sentiments were at astronomical levels that won't be reached again. Most people don't even want to pay attention to the election anymore. They don't see the point in it.
You are grossly underestimating the number of women (and men) that will come out to vote to protect and re-institute women's reproductive rights.
Head shaking that you would overlook this in your surprise fun-filled breakdown.
How many states will have abortion bills on the ballot? Half? Less than half? It’s not going to put 2024 at the same level as 2020
Depending on the definition of “significant,” I’d be surprised if any of those things *aren’t* the case. 2024 was a ridiculous turnout year. There’s a much more notable third party candidate than there’s been since Perot. Trump has no interest in a debate and might have trouble even scheduling one. And a substantial number of people “make up their minds” the week of the election every year (though I would argue these are people who already lean one way or the other and it’s more about making up their mind whether to vote at all).
You're ruining jackicker's fun. He thinks these are bold predictions.
Y’all don’t think my predictions are bold because you agree with me. Others disagree.
And I don’t think they’re bold, either. They seem obvious to me. I just want them posted for posterity.
You are grossly underestimating the number of women (and men) that will come out to vote to protect and re-institute women's reproductive rights.
Head shaking that you would overlook this in your surprise fun-filled breakdown.
How many states will have abortion bills on the ballot? Half? Less than half? It’s not going to put 2024 at the same level as 2020
Abortion wasn’t really an issue in 2020 because Roe v Wade wasn’t overturned until June 2022. Abortion has been a winner on every ballot since. You don’t need it on every ballot to make abortion significant. These are the states with abortion on the ballot already:
Florida, Maryland, New York.
These states are pushing to have abortion on the ballot:
Arizona Arkansas Colorado Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada South Dakota
How many states will have abortion bills on the ballot? Half? Less than half? It’s not going to put 2024 at the same level as 2020
Abortion wasn’t really an issue in 2020 because Roe v Wade wasn’t overturned until June 2022. Abortion has been a winner on every ballot since. You don’t need it on every ballot to make abortion significant. These are the states with abortion on the ballot already:
Florida, Maryland, New York.
These states are pushing to have abortion on the ballot:
Arizona Arkansas Colorado Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada South Dakota
I think you’re under appreciating how insane 2020 turnout was. 155m people voted - 28m more than 2016. If we have that kind of turnout again it’ll be pretty wild.
How many states will have abortion bills on the ballot? Half? Less than half? It’s not going to put 2024 at the same level as 2020
Abortion wasn’t really an issue in 2020 because Roe v Wade wasn’t overturned until June 2022. Abortion has been a winner on every ballot since. You don’t need it on every ballot to make abortion significant. These are the states with abortion on the ballot already:
Florida, Maryland, New York.
These states are pushing to have abortion on the ballot:
Arizona Arkansas Colorado Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada South Dakota
Are any of these swing states other than Arizona and Nevada? Having it on these ballots might help Biden, although you can vote trump and also vote against an abortion bill.
I still don’t see that helping it get to 2020 numbers nationwide
Post by braundiggity on May 1, 2024 20:15:36 GMT -5
Also frankly - I hate to say it but lower turnout benefits the left. Dems are significantly more engaged than republicans. It’s been a real turnaround since 10 years ago (and I’m glad dems haven’t responded by trying to restrict voting rights).
Post by braundiggity on May 1, 2024 20:26:00 GMT -5
I also don’t expect Florida to flip nationally but it’s still important to make gains in the statehouses and potentially congress. Thinking just in terms of presidential swing states is a bad idea.
Also frankly - I hate to say it but lower turnout benefits the left. Dems are significantly more engaged than republicans. It’s been a real turnaround since 10 years ago (and I’m glad dems haven’t responded by trying to restrict voting rights).
Dems suffer more engagement problems than Republicans tho. Although I agree the energy doesn't seem there with Republican folks... I'm around them all the time. BUT, it doesn't matter. They vote. They show up. Plus, Trump rallies some folks that normally aren't reliable voters. They've actually harmed themselves with their idiotic covid response that killed more of their base and spreading conspiracy theories about the election being stolen that likely has harmed turnout. Regardless, it's mistake to rely on the GOP not being engaged.
As has been said abortion rights is probably what will save the Dems in 2024. Overturning Roe and then turning the screw with idiotic shit like Arizona's 1864 ban is just making it worse. There's a reason some GOP folks are crossing the aisle to repeal it. The GOP's 4 smart people see what a massive misstep it was.
Gaza is going to hurt Biden but I don't think that alone could cost him the election. Americans just don't care enough about foreign policy. His approval on a lot of issues is dogshit. Some of that is just the nature of politics and not really his fault. Some of it is just the lingering dissatisfaction with the way of the world. His terrible foreign policy just adds to the list of things that will discourage some folks from showing up.
I'm on the fence but against all warning signs I don't really feel that Biden's fate is sealed just yet. Having said that I see very little to be positive about. It's going to be close.
i just dont feel i can vote for biden in good conscience. ive seen enough videos of children being blown to bits. abortion rights is a genuine concern but it just feels wrong voting for someone that evil
i just dont feel i can vote for biden in good conscience. ive seen enough videos of children being blown to bits. abortion rights is a genuine concern but it just feels wrong voting for someone that evil
"Trump would be worse" isn't great messaging when we are actively funding a country that's killed 14,000 children since October. Orphaned untold amounts of others. Openly committed numerous war crimes. Destroyed the civilian infrastructure of the majority of the strip and left generations of people with a lifetime of trauma.
To be fair to Biden, this is kind of America's thing. So it's not all on him. But to be fair to humanity, this isn't Biden's first rodeo either.
Also frankly - I hate to say it but lower turnout benefits the left. Dems are significantly more engaged than republicans. It’s been a real turnaround since 10 years ago (and I’m glad dems haven’t responded by trying to restrict voting rights).
Dems suffer more engagement problems than Republicans tho. Although I agree the energy doesn't seem there with Republican folks... I'm around them all the time. BUT, it doesn't matter. They vote. They show up.
This has not been the case since Trump though. Midterms used to be owned by the GOP, but now they’re owned by dems, including 2018 where Roe wasn’t an issue. Polls of potential voters this year show significantly higher enthusiasm for dems. And it’s not just abortion. They are now the party that owns reliable turnout.
The x-factor is Trump, who does drive turnout (by making the party his, he’s hurt the party when he’s not on the ballot). But he’s also even more of a mess this year, so we’ll see how that plays out.
Post by itrainmonkeys on May 2, 2024 14:01:55 GMT -5
The whitewashing and misinformation from the white house and the media is wild. Trying to act like occupying campuses is somehow some new form of protest and acting like they were wildly destructive and violent when it was the police and anti-protesters around the country causing the violence.
Good god, listen to this man spew shit from his mouth. "little Gaza" This belongs in the random thoughts thread with the other conversations about shit.