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Post by Dave Maynar on Sept 27, 2020 15:07:01 GMT -5
The Rock endorsing Biden is providing comedy for me bc local commenters are going full Schrodinger where it is simultaneously exactly what is required of the Hollywood elite so it's no big deal at the same time it is also a shock and the end of his career bc real Americans won't see his movies now that his true nature is shown.
If true American Trump cult followers want to stop watching sports, watching television, watching movies, and listening to music in order to please their overlord master, than by all means let them live a life without entertainment. Sadly, though, the boycott all liberal entertainment folks that I know are just channeling their energies and new found free time into angry rants and desires to take back the country by force.
What’s your logic for giving Michigan to Biden? Aren’t projections there off in 2016?
Projections were off by about 4% in 2016, which is significant sure. But with the exception of one Trafalgar poll (whom I don’t put much stock in), Biden has been solidly polling ahead by 7% in Michigan. If you consider margin of error and that 4% from 2016, then I guess you could argue that Michigan is one of the riskier battlegrounds.
I plan to update this at the end of the week. Based on the trends for the week, I’m going to possibly move some locations around. Wisconsin has been improving, so maybe those two flip flop. But Michigan is 16 votes and Wisconsin is 10, so let’s hope not
It wasn't even all a failure in polling as much as one aspect that polling can't predict very well. That's people who decided last minute. Which was like 3 times higher in Michigan than it was in 2012(IIRC). If that could be successfully weighed into a polls, just that aspect would have put polling results very close to the margin of error. Other aspects like drop in turnout from traditional Dem voters were another reason they missed.
Some of this can be adjusted for in new polls. Plus, this is a different race that almost certainly will have a more average number of last minute voters and that should help polling a small amount.
One added group that will likely swing big for Biden are folks that sat home because they thought Hillary had it in the bag. I'd also expect a drop in 3rd party voters like you saw in 2004. Which..... could actually help Trump considering Johnson voters where several times the size of Stein people.
Post by itrainmonkeys on Sept 27, 2020 17:58:23 GMT -5
In some good news....Trump tax stuff has come out and boy does it make him look crappy.
Among the key findings of The Times’s investigation:
Mr. Trump paid no federal income taxes in 11 of 18 years that The Times examined. In 2017, after he became president, his tax bill was only $750.
He has reduced his tax bill with questionable measures, including a $72.9 million tax refund that is the subject of an audit by the Internal Revenue Service.
Many of his signature businesses, including his golf courses, report losing large amounts of money — losses that have helped him to lower his taxes.
The financial pressure on him is increasing as hundreds of millions of dollars in loans he personally guaranteed are soon coming due.
Even while declaring losses, he has managed to enjoy a lavish lifestyle by taking tax deductions on what most people would consider personal expenses, including residences, aircraft and $70,000 in hairstyling for television.
Ivanka Trump, while working as an employee of the Trump Organization, appears to have received “consulting fees” that also helped reduce the family’s tax bill.
As president, he has received more money from foreign sources and U.S. interest groups than previously known. The records do not reveal any previously unreported connections to Russia.
It will make Trump mad so it's something. But I don't expect very much to change because of it.
He's mad all the time. Not that I think he'll do it, but him taking the fake news angle puts marginally more pressure on him to release his "real" returns.
Post by itrainmonkeys on Sept 27, 2020 18:52:39 GMT -5
True, he doesn't ever really seem happy. Mainly when he smiles is when he saying really shitty, hateful stuff. But I like anything that may poke at his ego. He's a giant fucking baby
Projections were off by about 4% in 2016, which is significant sure. But with the exception of one Trafalgar poll (whom I don’t put much stock in), Biden has been solidly polling ahead by 7% in Michigan. If you consider margin of error and that 4% from 2016, then I guess you could argue that Michigan is one of the riskier battlegrounds.
I plan to update this at the end of the week. Based on the trends for the week, I’m going to possibly move some locations around. Wisconsin has been improving, so maybe those two flip flop. But Michigan is 16 votes and Wisconsin is 10, so let’s hope not
It wasn't even all a failure in polling as much as one aspect that polling can't predict very well. That's people who decided last minute. Which was like 3 times higher in Michigan than it was in 2012(IIRC). If that could be successfully weighed into a polls, just that aspect would have put polling results very close to the margin of error. Other aspects like drop in turnout from traditional Dem voters were another reason they missed.
Some of this can be adjusted for in new polls. Plus, this is a different race that almost certainly will have a more average number of last minute voters and that should help polling a small amount.
One added group that will likely swing big for Biden are folks that sat home because they thought Hillary had it in the bag. I'd also expect a drop in 3rd party voters like you saw in 2004. Which..... could actually help Trump considering Johnson voters where several times the size of Stein people.
The only aspect of this that I disagree with is the assumption about third party voters. No scientific evidence to back this up, but literally every Libertarian voter I know hates Trump and would vote Biden if there were only two options. They’re in hard red states (MS and LA).
This week’s John Oliver episode was pretty great. Offered some solutions to our extremely broken democracy that aren’t violent revolution. I don’t expect any of what he said to happen because the Democratic sucks so hard, but still was nice to know there’s a possibility.
Tin foil hat Side note: is it a popular theory that Democrats are purposely horrible at their jobs because they’re lobbied by the same people as republicans and those people just tell them to suck?
Tin foil hat Side note: is it a popular theory that Democrats are purposely horrible at their jobs because they’re lobbied by the same people as republicans and those people just tell them to suck?
I don't necessarily view it that starkly. I don't think they are specifically asked to suck. I think they are not allowed to offer actual solutions to problems because the people who fund them don't want the problems solved. And when a politician gets to that level, there have been several layers of filters to where either the politician themself is either ideologically motivated to do the technocratic, neoliberal thing or simply can't conceive of another way. It's similar to the propaganda model detailed by Chomsky in Manfacturing Consent. If they believed in actual liberal policy, (free education and healthcare are considered standard liberal policy in most countries, not SoCiAlIsM) they simply wouldn't have made it this far. It's more about ideologies and practices that don't benefit the powerful being weeded out over time than some grand conspiracy, but the end result is ultimately the same: controlled opposition and oligarchy.
Post by abefroman1 on Sept 28, 2020 8:09:49 GMT -5
The tax story will barely move the needle. Most trumpers dream of paying less than 1% of their income to taxes, and since trump is white, they will see his efforts to lie to the IRS as a badge of honor.
Now if he was a single mother on food stamps, then they'd have a problem with his tax returns....
It wasn't even all a failure in polling as much as one aspect that polling can't predict very well. That's people who decided last minute. Which was like 3 times higher in Michigan than it was in 2012(IIRC). If that could be successfully weighed into a polls, just that aspect would have put polling results very close to the margin of error. Other aspects like drop in turnout from traditional Dem voters were another reason they missed.
Some of this can be adjusted for in new polls. Plus, this is a different race that almost certainly will have a more average number of last minute voters and that should help polling a small amount.
One added group that will likely swing big for Biden are folks that sat home because they thought Hillary had it in the bag. I'd also expect a drop in 3rd party voters like you saw in 2004. Which..... could actually help Trump considering Johnson voters where several times the size of Stein people.
The only aspect of this that I disagree with is the assumption about third party voters. No scientific evidence to back this up, but literally every Libertarian voter I know hates Trump and would vote Biden if there were only two options. They’re in hard red states (MS and LA).
Yeah, a lot of dyed in the wool Libertarians have real problems with Trump. Like basic fiscal issues and the obvious authoritarianism. But 3rd party/independent voters have an almost incomprehensible mix of ideological ideas, etc. This doesn't always have a strict ideological basis that we can track. The truth of the matter is most independents do end up lining up within our two party system. So your anecdote is a little outside the historical data on where the libertarian voting bloc usually end up placing their votes within the two party framework. The data was pretty hardcore GOP leaning decades ago but has drifted a little more to the Dems since Bush.... especially with younger voters. There's even analysis claiming that the shift in this voting block has helped Dems win on a state level. Still, I don't think Biden is the one to cause some major realignment so if 3rd party libertarians do make a choice between Trump or Biden the odds are Trump wins out... even if by a smaller margin then we've seen before.
But this is just one data point and won't likely be the deciding factor. It was more to say that a collapse in Green Party votes is almost certainly to be offset if the Libertarian ticket has a weaker showing as well.
The tax story will barely move the needle. Most trumpers dream of paying less than 1% of their income to taxes, and since trump is white, they will see his efforts to lie to the IRS as a badge of honor.
Yea taxation is theft anyways. Will not give a fuck about this story.
The tax story will barely move the needle. Most trumpers dream of paying less than 1% of their income to taxes, and since trump is white, they will see his efforts to lie to the IRS as a badge of honor.
Yea taxation is theft anyways. Will not give a fuck about this story.
Kinda crazy that the NYT got the tax records before the House did. But yeah, I'm not sure this helps sway anyone. Personally, I'd use this to attack the notion he's some great businessman and fighter of corruption but too many of his voters simply don't actually give a shit about reality. Nothing to really be done about that.
At the end of the day, Trump doesn't pay taxes because this is the fucking system that our leaders intended. Don't really see how he's any worse then hundreds of other rich dickheads here.
Yea taxation is theft anyways. Will not give a fuck about this story.
Kinda crazy that the NYT got the tax records before the House did. But yeah, I'm not sure this helps sway anyone. Personally, I'd use this to attack the notion he's some great businessman and fighter of corruption but too many of his voters simply don't actually give a shit about reality. Nothing to really be done about that.
At the end of the day, Trump doesn't pay taxes because this is the fucking system that our leaders intended. Don't really see how he's any worse then hundreds of other rich dickheads here.
I agree that it could be helpful to prove the shitty businessman thing but it wont help on the corruption point. Hes sold to his base that “yeah I broke and navigated the shitty corrupt rules as a businessman so Im the perfect person to show you how to fix them.”
Obviously there arent examples of him following through on that, but his base wont care about how self serving and corrupt he was before office.
Yea taxation is theft anyways. Will not give a fuck about this story.
Kinda crazy that the NYT got the tax records before the House did. But yeah, I'm not sure this helps sway anyone. Personally, I'd use this to attack the notion he's some great businessman and fighter of corruption but too many of his voters simply don't actually give a shit about reality. Nothing to really be done about that.
At the end of the day, Trump doesn't pay taxes because this is the fucking system that our leaders intended. Don't really see how he's any worse then hundreds of other rich dickheads here.
Being hundreds of millions in debt as President makes for a national security risk.
Kinda crazy that the NYT got the tax records before the House did. But yeah, I'm not sure this helps sway anyone. Personally, I'd use this to attack the notion he's some great businessman and fighter of corruption but too many of his voters simply don't actually give a shit about reality. Nothing to really be done about that.
At the end of the day, Trump doesn't pay taxes because this is the fucking system that our leaders intended. Don't really see how he's any worse then hundreds of other rich dickheads here.
Being hundreds of millions in debt as President makes for a national security risk.
Yep and debt also disqualifies you from a lot of government jobs. Remember Kavanaugh's debt that was paid off under dubious circumstances? Judges can't have debt. Same with anyone that wants to be a FBI agent.
Yea taxation is theft anyways. Will not give a fuck about this story.
Kinda crazy that the NYT got the tax records before the House did. But yeah, I'm not sure this helps sway anyone. Personally, I'd use this to attack the notion he's some great businessman and fighter of corruption but too many of his voters simply don't actually give a shit about reality. Nothing to really be done about that.
At the end of the day, Trump doesn't pay taxes because this is the fucking system that our leaders intended. Don't really see how he's any worse then hundreds of other rich dickheads here.
He's taking some pretty bold moves in his depreciation that other rich people aren't daring enough to do because they don't want to go to jail for tax avoidance.
Also, I don't care about this because whatever, but it seems like his business does significantly worse than he lets on with massive operating losses for the golf courses that aren't just depreciation for tax purposes.
Irony. I just saw a redneck in a truck with a "Trump 2020 - No More Bull****" sticker on the window. In what reality does that cowboy live in where this is even close to quasi-reality. Fucking idiot.
He's taking some pretty bold moves in his depreciation that other rich people aren't daring enough to do because they don't want to go to jail for tax avoidance.
Also, I don't care about this because whatever, but it seems like his business does significantly worse than he lets on with massive operating losses for the golf courses that aren't just depreciation for tax purposes.
What are the chances he's punished for it? At least to a level that would actually be justice?
My limited understanding is a lot of golf courses/country clubs are struggling because of societal changes. Younger people don't see the upside of paying dues, don't care to or simply cant afford to. Higher divorce rates mean less families keeping ties to clubs. Then you have lingering fallout from the great recession. And some areas just have too many and the bubble is bursting.
Irony. I just saw a redneck in a truck with a "Trump 2020 - No More Bull****" sticker on the window. In what reality does that cowboy live in where this is even close to quasi-reality. Fucking idiot.
That's pretty common, I've seen that on giant flags in Maryland as well.
Being hundreds of millions in debt as President makes for a national security risk.
not even my top 10 concerns about Trump. Mostly because I view the moronic foreign policy of basically every president in my lifetime as being security risks on a long enough timeline.
But whatever. I made a general statement about tax avoidance not his debt. Not like any of it okay. It's just not uncommon or shocking.
Being hundreds of millions in debt as President makes for a national security risk.
not even my top 10 concerns about Trump. Mostly because I view the moronic foreign policy of basically every president in my lifetime as being security risks on a long enough timeline.
But whatever. I made a general statement about tax avoidance not his debt. Not like any of it okay. It's just not uncommon or shocking.
Yeah. Once again, I worry that Trump is somehow going to be cast as an outlier like he's the one person doing shady ass stuff like this. His actions of course take on special significance because he's the president but his actions themselves are by no means special.