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Not really much to go on here. Gonna throw this out solely because I feel like Jaz has been more active and engaged than mad dog this game. If mad dog is town, he really is a victim of circumstance and I know that’s always a shitty place to.
Maybe not much to go on isn’t the right words here. There’s definitely been a lot of activity, but I feel like i won’t be able to properly analyze it until after the whack, so I didn’t weigh it too heavily in my vote.
I don’t know but i want to be transparent and lay all the cards out I have to offer. Hopefully people will gain and share their insights.
Just saw you went for MD. Why not yesterday when I was asking for it?
Just asking, I'm not pointing fingers to you. I just don't understand you in this game.
Because now I’m actually a deciding vote instead of mad dog being confirmed the one who will die. I still voted for mad dog in the end, but this time it was fully my decision.
Just saw you went for MD. Why not yesterday when I was asking for it?
Just asking, I'm not pointing fingers to you. I just don't understand you in this game.
Because now I’m actually a deciding vote instead of mad dog being confirmed the one who will die. I still voted for mad dog in the end, but this time it was fully my decision.
So in other words, you were waiting for someone to switch their vote like Rummy did?
Because now I’m actually a deciding vote instead of mad dog being confirmed the one who will die. I still voted for mad dog in the end, but this time it was fully my decision.
So in other words, you were waiting for someone to switch their vote like Rummy did?
Did you learn anything from that?
Yes. Not immediately, but it could prove useful down the road.
Post by potentpotables on Apr 4, 2020 10:00:41 GMT -5
I've spent two hours this morning reading the thread after work ended yesterday. There's a lot of machinations without much explanation. This game doesn't work when the town has players kamikaze-ing themselves all over the place without explaining what they are doing. When you make a move saying 'I want to see what happens' and you aren't telling anyone else what you want to know, it doesn't help anyone but you and makes you look more suspicious.
That's why I think it's unhelpful for Silver Surfer to talk about a theory and not share it, and then pretty much everything Mr.BelgianAmbers is doing seems to be trying to drive a narrative.
You said out of four there have been X number of Mafia in those four in these games you played. You included 2/4 for this game. What's going on?
No I didnt?
Read it like this
Game X: at the end of the game 2 mafia were in the group of last four to vote.
Game Y: at the end 1 mafia was in the group of 4
Etc.
I feel like I've been pretty clear. Could someone back me up as not crazy? potentpotables brought it up the idea this game as well.
You're not crazy, though you weren't extremely clear. For one thing, you did say 2 mafia in 122, which is this game, and I was as confused as Pablo seemed to be.
The "last four voters" theory was advanced by Zig I think in a game in the early 90s. It worked immediately but what we found out was that the expected mafia from that theory yielded no more mafia than grabbing any group of four voters. People ran the data on this. It's something like in every group of 4 you can pick, there's 1.3 mafia in that group on average. I've always used the last four theory because of the reasons you point out - mafia can wait til the last votes to shape the runoff - and figured that if we were picking groups of 4 to find mafia, it makes sense to pick natural groups of four than to force it. But I think past games have shown that the final four theory is no more statistically relevant than any other group of four.
I always think it makes sense to look at the last four voters, as well as those who have no votes initlally on D1.
I've spent two hours this morning reading the thread after work ended yesterday. There's a lot of machinations without much explanation. This game doesn't work when the town has players kamikaze-ing themselves all over the place without explaining what they are doing. When you make a move saying 'I want to see what happens' and you aren't telling anyone else what you want to know, it doesn't help anyone but you and makes you look more suspicious.
That's why I think it's unhelpful for Silver Surfer to talk about a theory and not share it, and then pretty much everything Mr.BelgianAmbers is doing seems to be trying to drive a narrative.
This is me acting Belgian, what do you mean with driving a narrative?
You’re the one who literally WROTE OUT in explicit detail what angle you were trying to play, offering yourself as a sacrifice to the mafia or whatever. How was that going to do anything effective once you’d written it out for everyone to read, including or course the mafia?
But then you’re gonna call me dumb? *shrug* don’t know what to tell ya.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
You’re the one who literally WROTE OUT in explicit detail what angle you were trying to play, offering yourself as a sacrifice to the mafia or whatever. How was that going to do anything effective once you’d written it out for everyone to read, including or course the mafia?
But then you’re gonna call me dumb? *shrug* don’t know what to tell ya.
Thought it was clear that this was obviously a joke
Post by potentpotables on Apr 4, 2020 10:14:21 GMT -5
I'm interested by the fact that Carini fell out of the runoff so easily in D1R3 (easily from a vote standpoint, certainly not from a chatter standpoint). There are three people who had votes on Carini to put him in the 3-way - Jaz, Jortles, Danbob. I'm ruling out (tentatively of course) Jaz and Carini being mafia together just because the odds say it's unlikely that we had 2 of 3 mafia in the 3-way on D1. And Danbob ended on Carini, but if they were mafia together he wouldn't have to do much about it since the momentum had gone toward Maddog/Jaz. That's a pretty easy distancing move. With Jortles and Carini, Jortles was the one who put Carini in the D1 runoff (piggybacking off of Jaz' vote) which would be putting a teammate unnecessarily in danger. I'm wondering if this movement is tied to Kanye's silliness before Manders came in and nuked everything in the 3-way.
Anyway, those are some notes I made this morning while catching up.
Post by Silver Surfer on Apr 4, 2020 10:22:37 GMT -5
The reasoning is that mafia likes to put themselves in a power spot and usually like to give themselves revotes. If we actually did have a mafia in one of these two, I see it less likely that the first one to get the majority of votes would be mafia as opposed to the one that didn't receive the revote.
I've spent two hours this morning reading the thread after work ended yesterday. There's a lot of machinations without much explanation. This game doesn't work when the town has players kamikaze-ing themselves all over the place without explaining what they are doing. When you make a move saying 'I want to see what happens' and you aren't telling anyone else what you want to know, it doesn't help anyone but you and makes you look more suspicious.
That's why I think it's unhelpful for Silver Surfer to talk about a theory and not share it, and then pretty much everything Mr.BelgianAmbers is doing seems to be trying to drive a narrative.
This is me acting Belgian, what do you mean with driving a narrative?
You came in after being silent for like two days (no shade meant about that) and started firebombing everything. You pushed Maddog up to 5, were challenging everyone multiple times, pressuring Danbob on why he wouldn't move his vote, etc. I can quote every post you've made since about 4pm yesterday if you want.
Your narrative is that Maddog deserves to be voted off. I don't know if that's wrong or if that's right, most of us have no idea, but the fact that you are putting that out there so strongly and doing a lot to get this outcome - that's driving a narrative. I'm not saying you're right, wrong, or anywhere in between. I'm noting the narrative.
It is also strange that Dan did end up voting maddog anyway instead of just doing it last round.
Like instead of just doing the same exact thing last round, he decided to instead give himself a revote
He bought time for the town. That's always viewed as a town move. Maybe it shouldn't be, and we don't need to play the same way every time*. I think you're grasping at a straw with this.
*this game is super fun because of the different things people are doing. Inforoo mafia can get stale. This is not. Good work to all.
Post by Silver Surfer on Apr 4, 2020 10:49:07 GMT -5
I think there is a scenario here I'd like to highlight
Manders setting up the lynch last round does kind of provide a discussion point
If Maddog wasn't mafia, it would be in mafia's best interest to go ahead and lynch him. However, it is also in mafia's best interest to pretend to be town. I think we could've potentially had more info of manders didn't explicitly call out Dan to make a move, but it's fine.
But here are scenarios I think are worth looking at.
1) All 3 were town. This is most beneficial to for mafia ofc.
Reasoning: instead of a lynch happening, we got the runoff. This would mean that mafia decided to play town. This is also highlighted by the fact that if Jaz is town, mafia would probably like to get rid of him as he's known to be a good player-hence why he was thrown in and not Carini
2) Maddog is mafia.
Reasoning: He wasn't lynched. And 3(!) People moved off of him in the last round alone. Of course one or more of those switches has to be town, but it is a worrisome pattern. We do know that mafia votes for their own on day 1 for distancing and with all the vote switching, mafia had a really good opportunity to switch off and force a runoff
3) Carini is mafia.
Reasoning: he fell out, nothing really else there but worth noting *Also potentially could be mafia with jaz and/or maddog, Although unlikely
4) Jaz/Dan are mafia
Reasoning: Dan decided not to outright lynch maddog so he could both play town and get a revote to "save" jaz. For this theory to work, their other teammate would have to be a jaz voter. Also likely one of the ones that moved off of maddog onto jaz in case it became a jaz/maddog runoff. This is also highlighted by jaz being a little stranger than normal (although I think everyone is at this point)
I think there is a scenario here I'd like to highlight
Manders setting up the lynch last round does kind of provide a discussion point
If Maddog wasn't mafia, it would be in mafia's best interest to go ahead and lynch him. However, it is also in mafia's best interest to pretend to be town. I think we could've potentially had more info of manders didn't explicitly call out Dan to make a move, but it's fine.
But here are scenarios I think are worth looking at.
1) All 3 were town. This is most beneficial to for mafia ofc.
Reasoning: instead of a lynch happening, we got the runoff. This would mean that mafia decided to play town. This is also highlighted by the fact that if Jaz is town, mafia would probably like to get rid of him as he's known to be a good player-hence why he was thrown in and not Carini
2) Maddog is mafia.
Reasoning: He wasn't lynched. And 3(!) People moved off of him in the last round alone. Of course one or more of those switches has to be town, but it is a worrisome pattern. We do know that mafia votes for their own on day 1 for distancing and with all the vote switching, mafia had a really good opportunity to switch off and force a runoff
3) Carini is mafia.
Reasoning: he fell out, nothing really else there but worth noting *Also potentially could be mafia with jaz and/or maddog, Although unlikely
4) Jaz/Dan are mafia
Reasoning: Dan decided not to outright lynch maddog so he could both play town and get a revote to "save" jaz. For this theory to work, their other teammate would have to be a jaz voter. Also likely one of the ones that moved off of maddog onto jaz in case it became a jaz/maddog runoff. This is also highlighted by jaz being a little stranger than normal (although I think everyone is at this point)
I think that's all I got
Dude, you are all over the place.
First off, if Maddog were mafia, and is currently set up to be voted off, you are arguing one of two things - (1) that all three mafia are currently on Jaz, or (2) that a mafia member currently on his/her teammate Maddog could move. Except you already said the quiet part loudly, which is going to make any mafia member on Maddog much less likely to move, which I guess is good if Maddog is mafia, but doesn't give us any information and we'll be chasing Maddog's ghost for the rest of this game. I do think it's helpful to put out everything that you are thinking, but it doesn't comport with your posts yesterday that you have a theory but don't want to share it yet. It's just confusing.
Second, claiming that Dan and Jaz have to be mafia together is straining, I think. You'd have to believe that the initlal D1 runoff got 2 of 3 mafia in it (which, with a 5 way first, isn't impossible, but it's still less likely). You'd have to believe that Dan voted for his teammate right off the bat and then moved and thought nobody would notice that. And then, to top it off, it would be super brazen for teammates Dan and Jaz to set it up so they were the last two votes of D1. I find this scenario hard to believe. It doesn't speak to whether one of them is mafia, I think it just means that they likely aren't mafia together.
Last, you just glossed right over Carini when we have a **QUIET CARINI** alert that needs to be sent out. The only note that you list is that he could be mafia with Jaz or Maddog, which would again mean that we got 2 of 5 mafia in the D1 runoff, again that's less than likely.
Yep, one of the only things I feel fairly strongly about (read: not certain) is that Dan & Jaz are NOT mafia together. Not gonna type it all out again because Potent did a great job summarizing their moves that indicate towards the unlikelihood of them being in mafia cahoots together, but just wanted to cite that I definitely agree.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Post by Silver Surfer on Apr 4, 2020 11:22:02 GMT -5
Yeah so like I said, those are just the ways to read into it. Never once did I say I believed it, just that it's potential. I also never said that those were the theories I was testing
One thing I'd like to argue back with potentpotables is that we were mafia together with Thor and we both voted for him day 1 and never switch and he ended up getting lynched. As a result of that move we won because no one though both mafia would vote our teammate off, it's a viable strategy
I think it's insanely reckless to say that it's unlikely for mafia to not do/or do something. They will do anything
I mean literally even if mafia did mess up, they could literally just argue "If I were mafia, why would I do that"
