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Can you be specific at all as to why you feel ever so slightly more sketchy about Potent?
Yep, already did but will repeat--I think it was when Jortles spoke to his general tendency to go off of gut feeling more than "who voted more/what does that mean" analysis because that's boded well for him in the past. I agreed with him that I tend to do that too, generally.
I'm playing this game with a lot of folks I haven't played with before, which makes the "let's go off gut feeling" thing much harder as I'm not familiar with the majority of these folks' playing styles and tactics. However, I've played with Potent a lot. And he's acting different this game. Could be something like he's Inspector--in which case, sorry friend that I'm getting on you, lol.
If you're fine with Jortles' explanation of preferring to go with gut feelings re: suspicions sometimes, why can't I do same?
You've both responded to my posts with sarcasm now. You each have nothing to contribute. You both present as completely intellectually bankrupt with regards to the game right now. You'll have to excuse me if I'm suspicious.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I think if I were to choose my most suspicious 3 id say Potent, Jaz, Jortles in that order
Pablo, Carini follow for funsies
If Maddog is mafia then idk where to go tbh
Maybe Potent and Carini as the other two? Idk
Can you explain the difference between these "tunnel vision on vs off" parameters?
And by those two groupings, do you mean that if, say, Jaz were to be Mafia you'd then feel in turn that Carini and I are with him? Or are the three of us grouped together there just in order of suspiciousness level to you?
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Also I've said multiple times in the past that I'm not that good at this game. Regardless, I'm often not one to try and steer the ship so that's an odd way to frame things, Pablo.
Trying to get you involved, man. Maybe that was a poor choice of words. Steering the ship is one thing, but you've been about as passive as possible in this game. You have the least posts of anyone playing, even the people who've been dead an entire Day now. Post count isn't everything, and I think it gets overblown sometimes, but that's something. And whether you're as good as your rep, I know you can contribute, so your lack of contribution reads off to me.
Can you be specific at all as to why you feel ever so slightly more sketchy about Potent?
Yep, already did but will repeat--I think it was when Jortles spoke to his general tendency to go off of gut feeling more than "who voted more/what does that mean" analysis because that's boded well for him in the past. I agreed with him that I tend to do that too, generally.
I'm playing this game with a lot of folks I haven't played with before, which makes the "let's go off gut feeling" thing much harder as I'm not familiar with the majority of these folks' playing styles and tactics. However, I've played with Potent a lot. And he's acting different this game. Could be something like he's Inspector--in which case, sorry friend that I'm getting on you, lol.
If you're fine with Jortles' explanation of preferring to go with gut feelings re: suspicions sometimes, why can't I do same?
You've both responded to my posts with sarcasm now. You each have nothing to contribute. You both present as completely intellectually bankrupt with regards to the game right now. You'll have to excuse me if I'm suspicious.
Your words flatter me.
That's a lot of words to say "it's a hunch". You aren't even specific about how he's behaving differently.
I think if I were to choose my most suspicious 3 id say Potent, Jaz, Jortles in that order
Pablo, Carini follow for funsies
If Maddog is mafia then idk where to go tbh
Maybe Potent and Carini as the other two? Idk
Can you explain the difference between these "tunnel vision on vs off" parameters?
And by those two groupings, do you mean that if, say, Jaz were to be Mafia you'd then feel in turn that Carini and I are with him? Or are the three of us grouped together there just in order of suspiciousness level to you?
For the first two it's teammates. Tunnel vision on means I'm trying to hard to uphold my theories and also guessing based on defensiveness read:everyone on that is voting for me lol
No tunnel vision is just trying to think of people that haven't really said anything to me to make me defensive.
The "best" is probably the 3rd list.
But I would say, this is mafia and my tunnel vision list could be right I guess. Of course if potent is mafia, his teammates probably won't be voting for him
Yep, already did but will repeat--I think it was when Jortles spoke to his general tendency to go off of gut feeling more than "who voted more/what does that mean" analysis because that's boded well for him in the past. I agreed with him that I tend to do that too, generally.
I'm playing this game with a lot of folks I haven't played with before, which makes the "let's go off gut feeling" thing much harder as I'm not familiar with the majority of these folks' playing styles and tactics. However, I've played with Potent a lot. And he's acting different this game. Could be something like he's Inspector--in which case, sorry friend that I'm getting on you, lol.
If you're fine with Jortles' explanation of preferring to go with gut feelings re: suspicions sometimes, why can't I do same?
Your words flatter me.
That's a lot of words to say "it's a hunch". You aren't even specific about how he's behaving differently.
I'm a little sketched out by Jortles, too, FWIW.
As much as I hate to do it, I think I'm gonna have to go back to the Potent/Kanye squabble to re-read it, especially re: how it got instigated. Given my current read that Potent and Kanye are likely to both be town, the squabble would be just that...a needless townie spat. But if I re-read it with an eye towards the idea that maybe one of them was doing it as mafia distraction/manipulation, idk could notice something I didn't while it was playing out.
But dude, you're asking me to explain why I'm voting for Potent over Kanye when like...those are the only two options we've got left. I have already stated quite clearly that I have a *stronger* town read on Kanye rn, so between that + Potent behaving a bit differently this game (a fair amount of "coming in to talk a lot, stir up some noise" and then soon thereafter bouncing from the conversation for a while), I think it MORE likely that Potent is mafia than Kanye is.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Kanye, you earlier, beginning of D2, said it was "highly likely" that the split on D1 was 3-0. Do you still believe that? I'm guessing by your guess of Pablo/Potent/Carini you are still holding to that theory.
Yeah like I said that's not my guess. And again yeah I do think it's highly probably a 3-0 happened, but also possible it didn't
The fun thing about probability is that it's never 100%!
Look, I'm not trying to bicker with you, we've done that enough and been enough of a distraction this game. I get that it's not 100%. It's just that your theory that the mafia voted 3-0 at the end of D1 is out there. And sure, it could be the case. I'm trying to figure out where we go from here, trying to help the town get as much info as possible.
That's a lot of words to say "it's a hunch". You aren't even specific about how he's behaving differently.
I'm a little sketched out by Jortles, too, FWIW.
As much as I hate to do it, I think I'm gonna have to go back to the Potent/Kanye squabble to re-read it, especially re: how it got instigated. Given my current read that Potent and Kanye are likely to both be town, the squabble would be just that...a needless townie spat. But if I re-read it with an eye towards the idea that maybe one of them was doing it as mafia distraction/manipulation, idk could notice something I didn't while it was playing out.
But dude, you're asking me to explain why I'm voting for Potent over Kanye when like...those are the only two options we've got left. I have already stated quite clearly that I have a *stronger* town read on Kanye rn, so between that + Potent behaving a bit differently this game (a fair amount of "coming in to talk a lot, stir up some noise" and then soon thereafter bouncing from the conversation for a while), I think it MORE likely that Potent is mafia than Kanye is.
Idk how else to say it?
Well, you didn't detail that about Potent in your first response.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Seems pretty clear the Mafia is comprised of some quiet folks. At least one, maybe two of 'em.
So Carini, Teddy--care to join in some discussion more for D3? Manders, you've faded into the background a fair amount too lately. And Jortles was Very Here, and then not so much anymore.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Seems pretty clear the Mafia is comprised of some quiet folks. At least one, maybe two of 'em.
So Carini, Teddy--care to join in some discussion more for D3? Manders, you've faded into the background a fair amount too lately. And Jortles was Very Here, and then not so much anymore.
I'm in a place similar to this. I'm working on my analysis of vote totals and combos, but need to run out for a grocery pickup. I'll be around most of the afternoon once I get back.
Seems pretty clear the Mafia is comprised of some quiet folks. At least one, maybe two of 'em.
So Carini, Teddy--care to join in some discussion more for D3? Manders, you've faded into the background a fair amount too lately. And Jortles was Very Here, and then not so much anymore.
I'm extremely surprised by this whack of Jaz. If he was Inspector, would he not have revealed near the end of Day 1 when he was in serious danger? I also had him as my 4th most suspected. Idk. I have to reassess and comb through Jaz posts.
There is always the "get rid of good player" thing.
Post by Teddy Flair on Apr 10, 2020 11:37:16 GMT -5
I'm trying to wrap my head around Jaz being the whack, he was barely even playing! When I get some time later today, I guess I'll check his posts to see if he left any inspector breadcrumbs?
Post by potentpotables on Apr 10, 2020 15:00:26 GMT -5
Looking at the Jaz whack, I am looking at his post with his initial D2 vote where he voted for Rummy. He believed there was a decent chance of Maddog being mafia. He also voted for me at the end of D2. I think this whack points at me and Rummy, both of whom could conceivably be mafia with Maddog. I know I'm not. If Maddog and Rummy were teammates, it's likely the third voted Maddog out.
This again is the D1 final tally. Jaz and Dan are confirmed townies.
Now, if Kanye was mafia, it's likely it was with Teddy/Jortles/Manders as the second, and if he wasn't, one of those three still needs to be mafia (assuming a 2-1 split D1 - I think assuming 3-0 without more information is crazy).
D2 final tally. If Kanye was mafia, that means it's either Kanye/Manders/Rummy, Maddog was mafia with them, or one of Kanye's teammates voted him out. I think it makes it tough to stomach Carini/Kanye as connected because Carini made the kill vote. Pablo could have pulled the standard "even-ing vote" on his teammate, but it strikes me as unnecessary. To me, that means it's Teddy or Jortles with Kanye, if one of Kanye's teammates voted him out.
1. I find it hard to believe Maddog and Kanye were mafia together. With all of Kanye's shenanigans, he could have easily switched to Jaz to save a teammate D1. 2. Kanye/Manders/Maddog would mean Maddog's two teammates voted him out. Kanye and I have done that before, so I don't rule it out, but with all the movement I think it's less likely.
Kanye and Manders seem to be the most linked via vote patterns. They both came in and firebombed later on D1, but that could easily be a distancing tactic.
I think, after reviewing all that, it's unlikely that Kanye was mafia, but I can't be sure. Right now, I'm basically at some combo Kanye/Manders/Teddy being 2 of 3. I tried to get Teddy in the runoff last time around, and nobody felt like joining me. I think that means I'm going to throw some shade Manders' way.
To reciprocate his vote, and also because moving off of an unintentional stack isn't noteworthy at all, but he's using that as a reason to vote for me.
I generally don't feel strongly about newbies being in a Day 1 runoff, though on a meta-level I admittedly don't want to scare new players away from our game, so with all else being equal, I probably have a slight preference for voting for someone who isn't completely new. That all being said, Teddy isn't a newbie. New on Inforoo, sure, but he's obviously played before.
As for my vote switch, I simply don't find it too helpful to have two people up to two votes within the first four votes of the game, especially since my stack on Teddy was accidental. People tend to not vote switch as much in the first round, so if Maddog and Teddy aren't Mafia, we'd be doing the Maf a favor by already having two people propped up to move forward.
What's more concerning to me is everyone else's reticence to stack after a few votes have been cast.
If everyone subscribed to this thought process, wouldn't this give too much power to the quick out the gate voters?
Nah I don't think so. The only people with power in the first round is the Mafia, regardless of when they vote. And the Inspector to an extent. Everyone else is shooting blind. Imo the power comes more from knowledge, not voting position - in the first round at least. Regardless, the point I'm alluding to is that if Mafia already have votes on them by the time say, five or six votes are cast, they have a reason to vote for people without votes in the hopes of escaping the runoff. For vanilla townies, it doesn't really matter if they stack at that point because everyone else is just as likely to be Mafia as anyone else. So when we end up with a tally like this:
I really start to look at the people who continued to expand the potential runoff instead of stacking - since for vanilla town it shouldn't make a difference either way. There are many different strategies to this game and many are valid but this is how I tend to play.
Ok, well, IF both were Mafia, well that would be pretty good for Town, now wouldn't it!
Don't condescend to me for pointing out that you wrote what amounts to meaningless tripe and act like it's profound or worth basing any kind of strategy on.
Except it's far, far less likely that the first four votes in the game are all for two Mafia, wouldn't you agree? Some scenarios are more likely than others, and in the first round that's all I have to go on. I'm not sure why you're making it into more than that.
(3/11) * 2 = 54% chance there's a Mafia in those two based on completely random chance. So yes it's a 50/50 chance if completely random. We'd have to have a random selection of 3-4 players to expect Mafia to be one of them though. So, using that exact same math, there's a decent chance one of the first four voters is a Mafia - meaning there's less of a chance that they voted for a fellow Mafia (though it certainly happens).
Still, this is waaaaay too deep to be looking into why I didn't want there to be two stacked players within the first four votes of the game. You can think whatever you'd like about that but it's a trivial point to continue explaining.
Three out of eleven players are Mafia, so the chance of any single player being Mafia is ~27%. That chance doubles if we randomly select two players instead of one, so ~54% (.54 repeating, same as what you got). No? If there were five players and one Mafia, there's a 20% chance that any one player selected at random is Mafia, and a 40% chance we get one Mafia by selecting two players. So sub in eleven and three for five and one. The math still checks out. But yeah, while probability may guide my moves, it doesn't dictate them. "I felt like moving my vote, so I did" is how a lot of people play the game as well. So going forward please forgive me if I don't calculate the statistical probabilities of my moves before making them.
You can have the last word on this if you want; the horse is dead and I'm leaving it be.
Jaz is the only one I feel different about right now. It doesn't seem like him to start posting numbers with no real meaning so early in the game
It's not like me, and I agree they have little meaning. Pablo brought up math shit saying my logic was flawed so I was responding to that. And I even said that it was way too deep to be going into a trivial move made this early in the game. Full agreement with you there.
Nah, I'm the conjuring spell. Messaged him on Facebook.
Manders this is your first game, yes? I'd strongly encourage you be active and more explanatory. It helps both the game move along so we don't get stalled waiting for you, and give us things to sift through to help us find the Mafia.
potent did--who else? (not challenging you at all, just don't see the other switch in last couple pages but I could've missed it scanning back through just now)
This took a reread or two to grasp what Manders is trying to do but I'm pretty sure it can be summed up as: instead of stacking on me and waiting to see what Danbob does in a choice between myself and MD, he's voting for MD to see if anyone's gonna move off of him. If we wait for Dan's choice, we force one player to give us concrete information. By stacking on Maddog, we have the potential of getting information from any of the four other Maddog voters. If that's what he's going for, I'm fine with it.
Manders you may find me fishy but as others have said, we generally encourage people to talk and explain things. That's how we force Mafia to bullshit and it opens up opportunities to spot inconsistencies. Given the amount of chatter we've had this round and knowing my own role, I think both Maddog and Carini deserve hard looks. Obviously people will infer that I'm acting out of self-interest in saying that (regardless of my role), but this...is a lot of talk for Day 1. See how that helps us?
hey i said i was town first bud. so what that just leaves carini to say he's town and then what?
someone getting moved on and off from a lot usually means theres a lot of bullshit by town. and at this point in the runoff its only so many people to switch on and off to. it would be really amazing if 2/3 of the 3/11 were mafia.
Just speaking from my own perspective. Everyone should be giving all three of us hard looks.
I understand that keeping my vote on MD currently does help towards the end of him being lynched D1, but shifting over to Jaz effectively makes me the determinant for HIS death (if no one else were to switch further at this point). And then carini is down there with only 2, which I find something worthy taking note of, but I'm not gonna switch over to him now to bump him to 3.
To switch to Jaz right now, I'd need to feel compelled towards the idea that he's more likely mafia than MD. I just don't have that feeling--not atm anyway
Yeah wait uhhh...it was literally explicated, BY YOU, why it made sense for me to help even it out 5-to-5 so Bob has to place his vote and that'll give us helpful info. Agreed that made sense once I understood logic behind it, thus did it...and now you're questioning it, Jaz?
C'mon now, read the posts. Pablo said that Dan would be the deciding vote. Then we had this exchange:
No but if I was about to be lynched outright I'd surely move to Maddog, tying him and I up at 5-5. Then Dan would be the deciding vote between us.
I solely was explaining what Pablo was saying. I at no point say that it would make sense for you, or say anything about helpful info. I did not suggest for you to make that move, I just explained what your move would result in. You're the one who made it, and now when I'm asking why you're turning it back on me, as if I was advocating for it. You may have a perfectly valid reason for changing your vote and that's fine, but all I did was provide clarification to a question you yourself asked.
Jaz do you have anything to contribute to this game before you get lynched?
Not really. I think Maddog is significantly quieter than usual and I don't entirely believe that Rummy has forgotten how this game works as nearly as much as she claims, but other than that I don't have a lot to add.
Reread your post, you said first page. If you're saying the whack points to me because he started the game voting for me as his opening vote of the game, that's one of the most shallow interpretations of a whack I've ever seen.
We tend to harp on the idea that we probably won't a Mafia in the first round, but between Maddog being significantly quieter than usual, the amount of talk/moves towards the end of Day 1, and that Danbob was whacked after picking MD over me, I think there's quite a good chance that Maddog was Mafia. The Inspector also generally tends to vote opposite their given name. When Dan voted for Maddog, the tally was
This gives us a pool of Carini, Potent, Pablo, Rummy. What's interesting here is that other that Carini, none of the other three voting for me were vote switches off of Carini, nor votes that were carried over from prior runoffs. All three of them were switches off of Maddog. So whether we look at MD as Mafia or as Danbob voting opposite his given name, it makes a lot of sense to me to look at those three players. Potent's already got a vote, and between Pablo and Rummy it's really a toss-up. I see differences in both of their playing styles this game. Gonna go for Rummy.
Jaz > Rummy
I'm not going to spend much time defending myself against those who find me implicated in the whack, other than to point out that Danbob A) moved his vote off of me when there was no need to, and B) he voted for Maddog over me when given the choice between us. Pablo also pointed out that Danbob was inspector with my name last game and voted for me out the gate at the beginning of the game (which I didn't realize, thank you Pablo). My math skills have been questioned here but there's a very small chance of me being Mafia, Dan being the Inspector, and him employing the same strategy with me as his given name two games in a row (not even factoring in the other points I made above). Make of that what you will.
Not to mention that the Mafia also knows we probably wouldn't let Jortles get voted straight out, so there was real no pressure to save him. After all, you DID move your vote unprovoked. Same holds true now for Silver. You're pretty much just making meaningless vote after meaningless vote.
The vote switching is odd considering that we're still staying at the same 4 people. Kinda makes no difference in some regards, other than now Jortles has a revote. Not sure what to make of it, but honestly I'm ignoring this Potent/Kanye tiff because it seems pretty inconsequential.
I moved off of Rummy to Potent because I started getting more of a town read on her, and I wanted to see where Pablo would then put his vote. I am/was comfortable with everyone slated to move forward at that point, and I don't feel strongly about either Kanye or Potent at this point, though I agree with Rummy that we may have two townies given how quiet everything got once we got down to these two. I think that makes the other people in the previous runoff worth looking at.
Also I've said multiple times in the past that I'm not that good at this game. Regardless, I'm often not one to try and steer the ship so that's an odd way to frame things, Pablo.
Post by Teddy Flair on Apr 10, 2020 15:58:07 GMT -5
After a full d2 read, I'm pretty convinced a Jaz whack means the Mafia is confident the inspector is already dead. Besides some 10-ply finger pointing at rummy and potent, he said almost nothing of substance, so whacking him could be just a move to give us as little insight as possible. Fuck.
Post by piggy pablo on Apr 10, 2020 16:04:24 GMT -5
Just got to this thread. Got that whole Fauxchella thing and Discord stressing me out. My first impression is that Mafia may have thought Jaz might be Inspector because of how quiet he was, that he was trying to lay low. I'll have to get around to a read-through in the next few hours.
Just got to this thread. Got that whole Fauxchella thing and Discord stressing me out. My first impression is that Mafia may have thought Jaz might be Inspector because of how quiet he was, that he was trying to lay low. I'll have to get around to a read-through in the next few hours.
Same read I’m getting.
And for the ppl claiming a Jaz whack likely points at me...Jaz outwardly said he evolved to possess a pretty strong town read on me.
If he was inspector and had my name, he wouldn’t have backtracked so explicitly like that on me.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Post by Jake Jortles on Apr 10, 2020 16:43:31 GMT -5
Jortles > Manders
I think someone, maybe 2 people of Carini / Manders / Teddy is absolutely chilling on the sidelines and was excited to leave in Rummy / Me / Potent in the mix so they can continue to lay low while we duke it out. Eliminate Jaz who's been quiet and not really pointed at anyone too directly and allow the same storylines from Day 2 to prevail.
I've still very much got my eyes on Rummy. I don't think I'll let her leave the runoff without my vote on her, but I'm interested to see how Manders proceeds.
