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Nice to point out, but I feel like we've been running these stats into the ground the last few games, and I have to wonder if Mafia is getting smarter. Last game, we did our damnedest to exploit them.
I can't resist commenting on this. I think everyone in the game is capable of realizing that mafia is going to manipulate whatever statistics we use, but it's entirely possible for the town to catch them manipulating it. Last game, you did your damndest to exploit them and yet you appeared in two of the three stats that Rummy mentioned on P1 of the game.
Notice this game that I only listed the no initial votes. This is a theory that makes tons of sense to me - you have an initial vote, as a player you read your role PM, and you make a decision where to place that initial vote. More times than not, a mafia member is not going to vote for their mafia person. But it doesn't matter, on D1, figuring out whether or not mafia is voting for their own or voting for townies. What matters is establishing connections to look back at on D3, D4, D5. Last game, the town was all over the fact that Theo voted for Jortles D1 and that this made him suspicious. Where we need to get better is convincing the other townies to go that direction.
In this game, I know I'm not mafia, so the people with no initial D1 votes - Rummy/rooloo/Maddog/Kanye - represent a group of 4. We know that odds in this game are that there are 1.3 mafia in any randomly selected group of 4. The hope is that this is not randomly selected, there's a method to why they end up with no votes, and so we can hit the average over the long haul, or better.
Does this mean that mafia could know this, and put votes on all their people? Of course. It's our job to figure that out.
Post by Silver Surfer on May 22, 2020 8:15:46 GMT -5
I think a lot of stuff is meaningless day 1. The only thing is who people choose not to vote for. Hopefully there was enough movement going on that we might get info later about how some mafia members chose to move or not to move
Ultimately the best thing we have to look at is language and gut feelings. There's a certain air around special roles that just makes them seem off.
Looking at how people say certain things is super useful. It's like when police in crime shows hear a suspect talk about an unknown murder victim in past tense. Some of those things are very subconscious and hard to hide
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I was just saying who I feel shouldn't fall out of the runoff. Everyone was saying they wanted to end the game at 10pm but people wouldn't move to Rothric. I definitely should've provided more (or any) detail
The one and only time I was mafia I was super focused the whole time, even after I got lynched I double checked every single time before sending a message. I'm playing loose because being vanilla town I have nothing to hide and nothing to lose. I can see why that looks suspicious when framed that way, but it's really just me being dumb, not me making some mistake as mafia
The most annoying part about this is that unless inspector sees some connection to their given name elsewhere, they will probably guess me which will be a waste of a guess. So town, I'm sorry for my "Rothric" post, seriously didn't see the repercussions of that at the time
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I think Teddy’s “goodbye”/Potential Last Post provides some helpful analysis that I imagine he might be giving us to show himself as Helpful Town. There’s also a chance he’s using this opportunity to narrative steer, but I think the former is more likely (that he’s actually trying to help).
My leaning rn is that Teddy and Jaz are likely both town. But if I had to place a bet this moment on which one is mafia if one of them IS, I’d put the money on Teddy just because, as Kanye mentioned, he’s had a good deal of fluff posts D1 & there’s been more overall movement on then off him, whereas Jaz voters have just kind of sat mostly. Tbh at this point I just worry that being a late vote switcher OFF Jaz will look worse than it is worth doing, given that it isn’t like I’m jumping at the idea that Teddy is likely mafia instead. If it turns out Teddy is maf, of course I’ll grossly regret this later. But then if it comes out Jaz is, I’d feel real dumb for having late-round vote switched off him and making myself look sus in effect.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Post by Jeremy Fragrance on May 22, 2020 9:02:17 GMT -5
I need to rethink what I said earlier about Teddy. The amount of vote movement on him in the earlier rounds is a bit weird, and he usually lost votes before gaining some putting him in the runoff.
It literally just looks like a PM response to who mafia should whack
Would be absolute poetry if this is the case when Rooloo faked this thing last time he was Maf. Think you guys should have held off on this observation until Day 2. Now Mafia gets to manipulate.
I need to rethink what I said earlier about Teddy. The amount of vote movement on him in the earlier rounds is a bit weird, and he usually lost votes before gaining some putting him in the runoff.
Lol so if one of us moves from Jaz to Teddy, can the other promise not to hold it against the other for Sketchiness?
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I will say, this can be a definite frustration of D1 when Town: you wanna place your vote where you feel it belongs but also since you have significantly less info than Mafia and quite a bit less than Inspector, you don't want to make a move that at the time in D1 "feels right" but then might come back to later look real bad on you, once further info has been revealed.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I will say, this can be a definite frustration of D1 when Town: you wanna place your vote where you feel it belongs but also since you have significantly less info than Mafia and quite a bit less than Inspector, you don't want to make a move that at the time in D1 "feels right" but then might come back to later look real bad on you, once further info has been revealed.
I need to rethink what I said earlier about Teddy. The amount of vote movement on him in the earlier rounds is a bit weird, and he usually lost votes before gaining some putting him in the runoff.
Lol so if one of us moves from Jaz to Teddy, can the other promise not to hold it against the other for Sketchiness?
Nah I still think Jaz is a better lynch than Teddy, but I realize I'm all over the place and no one is probably going to listen to me
Post by potentpotables on May 22, 2020 9:18:49 GMT -5
I just went back and looked - Teddy has 20 posts this game, and I classified 15 of them as having relevance to the game/non-jokes. Why did Silver Surfer exaggerate this so much?
I will say, this can be a definite frustration of D1 when Town: you wanna place your vote where you feel it belongs but also since you have significantly less info than Mafia and quite a bit less than Inspector, you don't want to make a move that at the time in D1 "feels right" but then might come back to later look real bad on you, once further info has been revealed.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I just went back and looked - Teddy has 20 posts this game, and I classified 15 of them as having relevance to the game/non-jokes. Why did Silver Surfer exaggerate this so much?
Well he did significantly uptake his posts in defense
I just went back and looked - Teddy has 20 posts this game, and I classified 15 of them as having relevance to the game/non-jokes. Why did Silver Surfer exaggerate this so much?
Well he did significantly uptake his posts in defense
5 of them are since you called him out for that, and 4 of those posts I'd say contribute to the game.
