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I dont have a read on anyone so I want to see what people say about this pick and see if anyone saves him
That's a weird reason. What constitutes "saving" me? If somebody else moves their vote to create a another runoff, is that "saving" me? Can I move my vote to defend myself?
I dont have a read on anyone so I want to see what people say about this pick and see if anyone saves him
That's a weird reason. What constitutes "saving" me? If somebody else moves their vote to create a another runoff, is that "saving" me? Can I move my vote to defend myself?
That's a weird reason. What constitutes "saving" me? If somebody else moves their vote to create a another runoff, is that "saving" me? Can I move my vote to defend myself?
Also odd here, campaigning for yourself when you are in no danger.
Yeah that’s what I meant. You totally could do that
That seems pretty harsh to me. It's a town strategy to create more runoffs for more information, so if someone moves to create that runoff, it shouldn't look as though they were saving me.
Now, if Dan or Tranter moved off me and you wanted to call that saving, I can see that, even though it would be purely coincidental.
Yeah that’s what I meant. You totally could do that
That seems pretty harsh to me. It's a town strategy to create more runoffs for more information, so if someone moves to create that runoff, it shouldn't look as though they were saving me.
Now, if Dan or Tranter moved off me and you wanted to call that saving, I can see that, even though it would be purely coincidental.
Well give me a reason to kill someone else then? Idk, if no one moves then I have the deciding vote so I gotta be the bad guy if worse comes to worse and you just happen to be the one to die from it
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
That seems pretty harsh to me. It's a town strategy to create more runoffs for more information, so if someone moves to create that runoff, it shouldn't look as though they were saving me.
Now, if Dan or Tranter moved off me and you wanted to call that saving, I can see that, even though it would be purely coincidental.
Well give me a reason to kill someone else then? Idk, if no one moves then I have the deciding vote so I gotta be the bad guy if worse comes to worse and you just happen to be the one to die from it
I think the best way we have on D1 is to look at the initial votes and who didn't receive any. The theory behind it is that mafia know more than townies when they cast their original votes, mafia have a vested interest in voting town instead of mafia, and so it is likely that after the initial vote splay happens, and there is a group of people who do not have an initial D1 vote, there is likely a mafia or two in that group. We know a few other things - generally a few people stack on D1 in initial votes, if it happens to make a 4 way runoff, there will be 7 people who receive votes, in any group of 4 you are statistically likely to have 1.33 mafia.
From my vantage point, there are a few things that statistics can tell us. Knowing I am town, we have a group of 5, minus me, in the runoff, so we likely have at least 1 mafia there. To look at the rest of them:
- Teddy got initial votes pretty quickly. He could be mafia, but it seems unlikely to me. If he's mafia, seems like one of the people who voted for him should be a candidate - initially it was Theo and Silver, and then NomCum came in and superstacked, so Theo moved. Something to pay attention to.
- Maddog was in the initial "got no votes" category. Jake Jortles thinks that he made a townie statement on D1R2. I'm not as sure, but I do trust Jortles gut on those types of things.
- Rummy was in the "last four voters" group and was the only crossover in the "got no votes" group. That's why my vote is on her. I think it's a good place for you to move. I don't want to move from her, but if nobody else moves, will be forced to (which is a mafia tactic in and of itself). As a bonus, I don't think Rummy has been the D1 exile in awhile, though I'm sure she'll correct me if I am wrong.
- Theo was in the initial "got no votes" group, and after that two people switched onto him. He could be mafia, but we don't really have any reason to think that yet. His vote switch off of Teddy is something to watch - it made sense at the time to ensure a runoff, which is something mafia hide behind a lot.
I would prefer the D1R3 runoff between Teddy, Rummy, and Theo, but realize at this point it's likely I advance, so I guess I'd probably prefer Rummy and then someone choose between the Theodores.
Well give me a reason to kill someone else then? Idk, if no one moves then I have the deciding vote so I gotta be the bad guy if worse comes to worse and you just happen to be the one to die from it
I think the best way we have on D1 is to look at the initial votes and who didn't receive any. The theory behind it is that mafia know more than townies when they cast their original votes, mafia have a vested interest in voting town instead of mafia, and so it is likely that after the initial vote splay happens, and there is a group of people who do not have an initial D1 vote, there is likely a mafia or two in that group. We know a few other things - generally a few people stack on D1 in initial votes, if it happens to make a 4 way runoff, there will be 7 people who receive votes, in any group of 4 you are statistically likely to have 1.33 mafia.
From my vantage point, there are a few things that statistics can tell us. Knowing I am town, we have a group of 5, minus me, in the runoff, so we likely have at least 1 mafia there. To look at the rest of them:
- Teddy got initial votes pretty quickly. He could be mafia, but it seems unlikely to me. If he's mafia, seems like one of the people who voted for him should be a candidate - initially it was Theo and Silver, and then NomCum came in and superstacked, so Theo moved. Something to pay attention to.
- Maddog was in the initial "got no votes" category. Jake Jortles thinks that he made a townie statement on D1R2. I'm not as sure, but I do trust Jortles gut on those types of things.
- Rummy was in the "last four voters" group and was the only crossover in the "got no votes" group. That's why my vote is on her. I think it's a good place for you to move. I don't want to move from her, but if nobody else moves, will be forced to (which is a mafia tactic in and of itself). As a bonus, I don't think Rummy has been the D1 exile in awhile, though I'm sure she'll correct me if I am wrong.
- Theo was in the initial "got no votes" group, and after that two people switched onto him. He could be mafia, but we don't really have any reason to think that yet. His vote switch off of Teddy is something to watch - it made sense at the time to ensure a runoff, which is something mafia hide behind a lot.
I would prefer the D1R3 runoff between Teddy, Rummy, and Theo, but realize at this point it's likely I advance, so I guess I'd probably prefer Rummy and then someone choose between the Theodores.
A few notes: 1) the bolded above just isn't really that true with role reveals. Multiple recent games have proven this--that Mafia *can* indeed have a vested interest in the opposite of what you posited (as in, voting for their own because that'll help them down the line). fine if you still want to put a lot of stock in this idea, but with role reveals, i take it with a few grains of salt. 2) on your Teddy analysis, it is funny because the weird flurry of votes on him actually had me thinking the opposite of what you wrote above: when i saw it happen, i thought "huh, wonder if mafia is voting for each other out the gate with this stacking"--again, you and i are just going to differ on this piece, but i'm sorta surprised that with role reveals you haven't shifted your thinking on this much at all. 3) yeah, i haven't been d1 exile in a while. would be a waste on me now as i'm town but if you want to do it because i haven't been the d1 exile for a bit, so be it. 4) it is really early days to be trusting others' gut reads that they may or may not actually believe in (Jortles is known for staking out claims that he might not actually believe himself, to see how others react to it) towards the end of where to or where not to place your vote
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
i love ya KPO, but i find it a bit frustrating that people can just like Type A Lot Of Words and you'll side with them most often.
Potent might be manipulating those details/data he pointed out to you--or he's town just trying to do some analysis, but trust less readily in this game, my friend!!
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
i love ya KPO, but i find it a bit frustrating that people can just like Type A Lot Of Words and you'll side with them most often.
Potent might be manipulating those details/data he pointed out to you--or he's town just trying to do some analysis, but trust less readily in this game, my friend!!
I didn’t do that last game, in fact I pinned Jortles for maf because he did it.
Anyway, not married to rummy and want to see where things go. Would rather not be the deciding factor in killing someone D1 because that just puts a target on my head
i love ya KPO, but i find it a bit frustrating that people can just like Type A Lot Of Words and you'll side with them most often.
Potent might be manipulating those details/data he pointed out to you--or he's town just trying to do some analysis, but trust less readily in this game, my friend!!
I didn’t do that last game, in fact I pinned Jortles for maf because he did it.
Anyway, not married to rummy and want to see where things go. Would rather not be the deciding factor in killing someone D1 because that just puts a target on my head
I didn’t do that last game, in fact I pinned Jortles for maf because he did it.
Anyway, not married to rummy and want to see where things go. Would rather not be the deciding factor in killing someone D1 because that just puts a target on my head
lol well if no one moves you still are.
Exactly someone should move. Why would town not want more to work off of?
I think the best way we have on D1 is to look at the initial votes and who didn't receive any. The theory behind it is that mafia know more than townies when they cast their original votes, mafia have a vested interest in voting town instead of mafia, and so it is likely that after the initial vote splay happens, and there is a group of people who do not have an initial D1 vote, there is likely a mafia or two in that group. We know a few other things - generally a few people stack on D1 in initial votes, if it happens to make a 4 way runoff, there will be 7 people who receive votes, in any group of 4 you are statistically likely to have 1.33 mafia.
From my vantage point, there are a few things that statistics can tell us. Knowing I am town, we have a group of 5, minus me, in the runoff, so we likely have at least 1 mafia there. To look at the rest of them:
- Teddy got initial votes pretty quickly. He could be mafia, but it seems unlikely to me. If he's mafia, seems like one of the people who voted for him should be a candidate - initially it was Theo and Silver, and then NomCum came in and superstacked, so Theo moved. Something to pay attention to.
- Maddog was in the initial "got no votes" category. Jake Jortles thinks that he made a townie statement on D1R2. I'm not as sure, but I do trust Jortles gut on those types of things.
- Rummy was in the "last four voters" group and was the only crossover in the "got no votes" group. That's why my vote is on her. I think it's a good place for you to move. I don't want to move from her, but if nobody else moves, will be forced to (which is a mafia tactic in and of itself). As a bonus, I don't think Rummy has been the D1 exile in awhile, though I'm sure she'll correct me if I am wrong.
- Theo was in the initial "got no votes" group, and after that two people switched onto him. He could be mafia, but we don't really have any reason to think that yet. His vote switch off of Teddy is something to watch - it made sense at the time to ensure a runoff, which is something mafia hide behind a lot.
I would prefer the D1R3 runoff between Teddy, Rummy, and Theo, but realize at this point it's likely I advance, so I guess I'd probably prefer Rummy and then someone choose between the Theodores.
A few notes: 1) the bolded above just isn't really that true with role reveals. Multiple recent games have proven this--that Mafia *can* indeed have a vested interest in the opposite of what you posited (as in, voting for their own because that'll help them down the line). fine if you still want to put a lot of stock in this idea, but with role reveals, i take it with a few grains of salt. 2) on your Teddy analysis, it is funny because the weird flurry of votes on him actually had me thinking the opposite of what you wrote above: when i saw it happen, i thought "huh, wonder if mafia is voting for each other out the gate with this stacking"--again, you and i are just going to differ on this piece, but i'm sorta surprised that with role reveals you haven't shifted your thinking on this much at all. 3) yeah, i haven't been d1 exile in a while. would be a waste on me now as i'm town but if you want to do it because i haven't been the d1 exile for a bit, so be it. 4) it is really early days to be trusting others' gut reads that they may or may not actually believe in (Jortles is known for staking out claims that he might not actually believe himself, to see how others react to it) towards the end of where to or where not to place your vote
A few responses:
1. I think we are sort of talking about two different things here. I don't really think you'd argue that mafia has a vested interest in voting off town instead of mafia. The point of the game is for one side to eliminate the other. Mafia hurts themselves when they lose mafia members, and to the extent that means mafia voting for each other is a cause, that is not good for mafia. You're talking about distancing (a fair amount of overlap, to be sure) which seems to have become even more pronounced with role reveals. I don't disagree, but that doesn't mean that it helps mafia. I think you can look to the immediate past game to see that - Jaz voted for Tranter, I voted for him and switched, it led to both of us being more suspicious. So yes, role reveals may have led to more distancing votes, but that doesn't mean it actually has helped mafia. And we're back to what I was saying - mafia has a vested interest in townies being exiles instead of mafia members. I also addressed the possibility of distancing - especially when I thought that one of Theo or Teddy should move forward. 2. Again, I don't think the distancing helps mafia. If Teddy is mafia with Theo or Silver or NomCum, we'll be able to figure that out later. Your vote certainly isn't backing up your words on this point, though. What you're basically telling is us that you thought Teddy could be mafia, with one of the people voting for him, and you joined the party by voting for Maddog and haven't switched off even though someone needs to switch off to keep a runoff going. 3. I gave more reasons to vote for you than just not having been the D1 exile in awhile, c'mon now. 4. That's both fair and still possible to do, I think. I take anyone's reads on anyone else with a grain of salt, and I had a different read on Maddog saying that than Jortles did. I don't even know Jortles status, and certainly things could develop that changes my views. I was simply saying that right now, as a tiebreaker, I don't have a problem with Maddog dropping out of this runoff. He's in here because he didn't have any initial votes, and while that is likely to nab a mafia, it's also likely to throw a few townies in as well (or worse).
Post by potentpotables on Mar 23, 2021 11:18:06 GMT -5
I want to state this again, so that people can see it if you didn't read my reply to Rummy:
Rummy stated that her initial thought was that Teddy being voted for by Theo and Silver could be some mafia distancing going on. She has not voted that way, and can easily do that. Take that for what you will.
A few notes: 1) the bolded above just isn't really that true with role reveals. Multiple recent games have proven this--that Mafia *can* indeed have a vested interest in the opposite of what you posited (as in, voting for their own because that'll help them down the line). fine if you still want to put a lot of stock in this idea, but with role reveals, i take it with a few grains of salt. 2) on your Teddy analysis, it is funny because the weird flurry of votes on him actually had me thinking the opposite of what you wrote above: when i saw it happen, i thought "huh, wonder if mafia is voting for each other out the gate with this stacking"--again, you and i are just going to differ on this piece, but i'm sorta surprised that with role reveals you haven't shifted your thinking on this much at all. 3) yeah, i haven't been d1 exile in a while. would be a waste on me now as i'm town but if you want to do it because i haven't been the d1 exile for a bit, so be it. 4) it is really early days to be trusting others' gut reads that they may or may not actually believe in (Jortles is known for staking out claims that he might not actually believe himself, to see how others react to it) towards the end of where to or where not to place your vote
A few responses:
1. I think we are sort of talking about two different things here. I don't really think you'd argue that mafia has a vested interest in voting off town instead of mafia. The point of the game is for one side to eliminate the other. Mafia hurts themselves when they lose mafia members, and to the extent that means mafia voting for each other is a cause, that is not good for mafia. You're talking about distancing (a fair amount of overlap, to be sure) which seems to have become even more pronounced with role reveals. I don't disagree, but that doesn't mean that it helps mafia. I think you can look to the immediate past game to see that - Jaz voted for Tranter, I voted for him and switched, it led to both of us being more suspicious. So yes, role reveals may have led to more distancing votes, but that doesn't mean it actually has helped mafia. And we're back to what I was saying - mafia has a vested interest in townies being exiles instead of mafia members. I also addressed the possibility of distancing - especially when I thought that one of Theo or Teddy should move forward. 2. Again, I don't think the distancing helps mafia. If Teddy is mafia with Theo or Silver or NomCum, we'll be able to figure that out later. Your vote certainly isn't backing up your words on this point, though. What you're basically telling is us that you thought Teddy could be mafia, with one of the people voting for him, and you joined the party by voting for Maddog and haven't switched off even though someone needs to switch off to keep a runoff going. 3. I gave more reasons to vote for you than just not having been the D1 exile in awhile, c'mon now. 4. That's both fair and still possible to do, I think. I take anyone's reads on anyone else with a grain of salt, and I had a different read on Maddog saying that than Jortles did. I don't even know Jortles status, and certainly things could develop that changes my views. I was simply saying that right now, as a tiebreaker, I don't have a problem with Maddog dropping out of this runoff. He's in here because he didn't have any initial votes, and while that is likely to nab a mafia, it's also likely to throw a few townies in as well (or worse).
I want to state this again, so that people can see it if you didn't read my reply to Rummy:
Rummy stated that her initial thought was that Teddy being voted for by Theo and Silver could be some mafia distancing going on. She has not voted that way, and can easily do that. Take that for what you will.
I have a lot of thoughts of "oh, this could mean that!" in early D1. Just because I noted in my head, "huh, that flurry of votes onto Teddy coulddd be mafia mayhem afoot" doesn't equate to "I have a Maf read on Teddy."
I'm myself not married to my vote on MD--I'd placed my vote there after seeing that he didn't have any votes and he is always a pretty tough read for me in early days (I can read him better later on in games typically), so it felt a fine place for me to be D1.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
