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Key part: Let me tell you my thoughts. With Romney gone, the chances of a brokered convention are nearly zero. But that does not affect my determination to fight on, in every caucus and primary remaining, and at the convention for our ideas, with just as many delegates as I can get. But with so many primaries and caucuses now over, we do not now need so big a national campaign staff, and so I am making it leaner and tighter. Of course, I am committed to fighting for our ideas within the Republican party, so there will be no third party run. I do not denigrate third parties — just the opposite, and I have long worked to remove the ballot-access restrictions on them. But I am a Republican, and I will remain a Republican.
I also have another priority. I have constituents in my home district that I must serve. I cannot and will not let them down. And I have another battle I must face here as well. If I were to lose the primary for my congressional seat, all our opponents would react with glee, and pretend it was a rejection of our ideas. I cannot and will not let that happen.
Regular delegates are determined by state election results. They are pledged to follow those results during initial convention voting.
Superdelegates are party officials (governors, congressmen, state-level people) who also get to participate in the convention. They are free to vote however they wish, regardless of election results. They make up about one-fifth of the total delegates at the convention.
So, about 4/5 of the delegates have to vote the way their state primary results dictate. The other 1/5 are party establishment people, free to make their own decision.
I hope that makes sense, but feel free to ask follow-up questions if it doesn't.
So they don't have to actually make their final decision until the convention, right? So they shouldn't be included in delegate totals at this point because they can change their minds
They don't have to make up their mind until the convention, yes. But with the race as close as it is, coupled with their tiebreaking potential, they are getting plenty of attention - warranted or not.
I can finally tell (from my Wisconsin vantage point) that there's an election on the way. First, he opened up an office here last week. He's hit the airwaves hard since the weekend began - and I found out about it on my classic rock station, not any of the news/talk stations I listen to. Finally, he's coming to my town! He's speaking at the Kohl Center (Badger b-ball/hockey arena) Tuesday night. Unfortunately, that coincides with one of the three shifts I'm supposed to work next week... I'm working on it.
Obama and Hillary only set up offices in Maryland last week and the primary is on Tuesday - I know two months ago, we thought everything would be decided on 2/5 so everything else was waiting on that.
Looks like Obama is gonna win the ME caucuses also. With 87% reporting he leads 59%-41%. This should yield about 15 -9 delegates.
New Estimated totals are approximately (including Super delegates who have indicated)
Obama 1145 - Clinton 1157 (depending on whose counting) Obama has about 100 delegate lead in pledge delegates.
dcbee - The nominee was original selected by the Party with minimal input from average voters. In the 50's and 60's this was changed and the nominee was pick completely by pledged delegates. Close races allowed Party input and dealing as pledged delegates can change adter the 1st vote with no winner.
Super delegates were added in the 70's after the McGovern and Carter nominations as the Party thought the "electorate" had swung too far from reality and was losing elections. They partially reverted to the old system of Party insiders picking as they felt it would moderate the swings in electorate opinions (kind of along the lines of the Senate moderating the House's "mob" mentality in Congress.)
While I understand the thinking, I don't necessarily agree with it.
I agree with Donna Brazil ( a rarity) in saying that if the Super delegates and party establishment go against the will of the people, it would be disasterous for the Dems. There is a mild civil war going on now between the "grassroot" and the "establishment" and a close race could realy cause a flare-up that could be BAD. Let's hope that one candidate pulls ahead and is the obvious leader and the super delegate respect and follow the people.
Last Edit: Feb 10, 2008 20:00:32 GMT -5 by troo - Back to Top
In 2004, I thought the primary issue was the war. We had been in Iraq less than a year and it was becoming very evident to me that the Bush administration was more interested in corporate profit that the long term effects of destabilizing the region and /or the lives of our troops. (Let alone the disasterous financial consequences of the war and occupation.)
Clark is a military genius in rebuilding and reconciliation and proved it in the Balkans. I thought we needed him at that time.
My main issue now (and was a close 2nd in 2004) is corporate control of government. I believe all problems stem, at least in part, from this (ie, deficits, unbalanced tax codes, civil liberty erosion, lack of accountability, energy dependence, env degradation, destruction of the middle class) That's why I will support anyone you will address this issue.
Post by koyaanisqatsi on Feb 11, 2008 13:31:16 GMT -5
troo said:
I agree with Donna Brazil ( a rarity) in saying that if the Super delegates and party establishment go against the will of the people, it would be disasterous for the Dems. There is a mild civil war going on now between the "grassroot" and the "establishment" and a close race could realy cause a flare-up that could be BAD. Let's hope that one candidate pulls ahead and is the obvious leader and the super delegate respect and follow the people.
I would not at all be surprised to watch the superdelegate issue be used as a tool by the democratic establishment. They will use whatever means necessary to maintain their role as The Washington Generals. For those who don't get the analogy, The Washington Generals are the team that gets paid to lose and be the buffoons for the Harlem Globetrotters' road show. If there is never any other team allowed to play, the Globetrotters will always win. And that's how all the money gets made. And in the end, the Generals get their piece broken off for being the lackey losers. Some balance of power. But it's what keeps people in the seats, and lines at the voting booth.
I'll be voting for Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. She was an anti-establishment democratic representative from Georgia and doesn't pull any punches. Though, she will not win, she has earned my vote. And I urge you all to check out the documentary that revolves around her struggle to get real answers on issues that most democrats have shyed away from. It includes GREAT footage of her busting Rumsy's balls. Also deals with the election shenanigans of the 2000 and 2004 elections as well as cross-over primary voting and other non democratic chicanery . It's called AMERICAN BLACKOUT and is available through Netflix.
She is a patriot and a hero in a time of tyrants and sheep.
Today's the day the campaign finally hit Wisconsin full-on. Marquette University in Milwaukee might hold another debate in addition to the other two I've been hearing about - was it TX & OH?
I just got my first campaign cold call a few minutes ago. Is it sad that I was excited about it? It was the Obama campaign. I was surprised that the FIRST question was asking if I wanted to volunteer. You'd think they'd want to know if I'm a supporter before they ask that. Fortunately I had an easy out - I intern in the federal office of a very ethical Senator and am not allowed to participate in partisan activities. Luckily, I already knew the rest of her script. I was able to tell her that... 1. I am registered to vote 2. I will be voting Obama next Tuesday 3. I plan on going to his rally tomorrow evening ...before she even got out a follow-up question. And that was that. I've overheard fools talking about waiting outside at 2pm for an event with doors at 6:15pm. It's four quacking degrees outside and tomorrow doesn't look much better.
Clinton's camp finally established a presence here too, but I haven't seen/heard any ads yet. Chelsea Clinton was at the union here today. For whatever reason, there was less than 48 hours' heads-up. Unfortunately, I missed out - event was slated to start at 3:30. Interestingly, I saw my T.A. who was "too ill" for my discussion section (ending 2:10pm) in the crowd waiting. As usual, a politician (in this case, the surrogate) was running late by about 15-20 minutes. I had a 4pm class, so I bailed at 3:50 with no sign of Chelsea after wasting 45 minutes. I don't feel guilty I gave them bogus contact info. And I'm jealous a fellow Richardson volunteer from Milwaukee got to meet her earlier - it's probably part his fault.
I don't know what McCain's up to, because I'm in Madison. Madison always goes something like 70/30 Democrat so Republicans avoid it like the plague.
I saw my first lawn sign today, too. Of course, it was for Ron Paul.
Hillary hits Milwaukee Saturday, and I think it's a pretty safe bet Slick Willy will be in town sometime within the next week. If he's in the state any day other than Fri/Sat I'm there.
Obama comes to town tomorrow night.
I'm off to watch the UW College Dems debate the College GOP. Fun times.
My cable is out, and my roommate is using the bitter cold as an excuse to smoke cigs inside. I just quit 2 weeks ago and its smelling the whole damn house up, so sitting downstairs and watching the working TV isn't really an option, it smells horrid to me down there.. I haven't seen any of her ads, I've heard Obama on the radio but thats it..
Last Edit: Feb 11, 2008 21:17:19 GMT -5 by wooz - Back to Top