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I heard from someone in the know that meetings are happening this weekend to discuss the viability of doing Bonnaroo this year. Evidently, ticket sales are off pace by 50% and there is a very real possibility that it will be canceled. I only have his word and no evidence. The economy must be a lot worse than we imagined if Bonnaroo can't sell tickets with THAT lineup.
No, I'm not joking.
no way this is true. if this is true than i'm Trey Anastasio
"Disobedience, in the eyes of anyone who has read history, is man's original virtue. It is through disobedience and rebellion that progress has been made." Oscar Wilde (1854 - 1900), The Soul of Man Under Socialism
"You're either on the bus or off the bus." Ken Kesey
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." Hunter S. Thompson
I am long time lurker and this is my first post...I am gonna try to crunch some numbers and try to make a reasonable estimation to the viability of Bonnaroo this year.
Intro:
Lets assume that this year the tickets are capped at 80,000 individual entry passes. Last year the number of attendees was placed in the range of 60,000 people. The total ticket income would be $14,600,000 dollars (based on average of $236 dollars a ticket). I would assume that the break even point for the festival in terms of operating expenses plus talent costs would be around $12,000,000 dollars. Thus last year probably operated with a fairly healthy profit.
This Year:
I would think that Phish and Bruce Springsteen are both making around $1,500,000 dollars for being at the festival. This assumption is based upon the average per show guarantee that promoters probably pay them. Lets assume that the Beastie Boys and Nine Inch Nails each are receiving $700,000 dollars to appear at the festival. That would be $4,400,000 for the "Headline Acts" with the rest of the money being dispersed for the other 120+ bands and day time acts.
Ticket Sales:
I think it is safe to assume that the Bonnaroo Festival does 40-50% of its business in the initial week of ticket sales. This is a fair assumption to the number of ticket tiers and a assumed idea that 40,000 tickets exist in the early bird, VIP, tier 1, tier 2, and tier 3 tickets while another 40,000 tickets exist in tier 4. There are effectively 9 weeks to sell the tickets.
(This is a prediction)
First Week Early Bird-2,000 tickets Regular Tickets: 37,000 tickets VIP: 5,000 tickets available Average Weekly ticket sales: 1,000-2,000 tickets Plus Additional Headliners and Artist Announcements: +/- : 9,000-10,000 tickets
Mailing Lists/Publicity
I would assume that Bruce and Phish have well over 500,000 people on their mailing lists, and I would assume that Bonnaroo has at least 100,000 people on a mailing list. These combined tools should almost guarantee a sell out.
Conslusion: At least 50,000 tickets have been sold which is very close to the hypothetical break even point of the festival. It would be safe to assume that by the middle of May this should be sold out. I would have to see other numbers to change my argument, and I have no access to other sets of data.
I dont know why we are even talking about this. ^ ^ is some good crunching of the numbers but seriously.... its MARCH. If i am correct that leaves April and May before June. 80 + days to sell tickets = thousands and thousands of tickets being purchased. I would agree that there are at least 50,00 tickets bought as of right now and with additions and a not so awesome Rothbury lineup at our hands thats just going to give it a boost. (not that there needs to be one) EST. 75,000 people
Last Edit: Mar 20, 2009 16:57:53 GMT -5 by theroo420 - Back to Top
Here's what we can tell you: Instead of cancelling Bonnaroo, we're going to make it even better. Stay tuned to our website for some real cool surprises. How strong do you think those rumors are now?
i'm curious as to how they plan on making it better and what kind of real cool surprises they have planned for us. Thursday night headliner on What Stage?....
"Disobedience, in the eyes of anyone who has read history, is man's original virtue. It is through disobedience and rebellion that progress has been made." Oscar Wilde (1854 - 1900), The Soul of Man Under Socialism
"You're either on the bus or off the bus." Ken Kesey
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." Hunter S. Thompson
Post by candyflippedaround on Mar 20, 2009 17:46:12 GMT -5
big announcement! widespread panic!
haha jk. the wait has definitely piqued my interest as far as additions go. I could really go with out any at all but the fact that they havent made one add so far, plus there was no reaction to the Rothbury lineup. i really dont know what to expect, but hopefully they arent just saying they are "making it better" and actually do something unexpected.
this is what i heard too, apparently they're gonna try to throw down some cash on a big addition or two that they hope will get tickets moving, but if it doesn't work they might have to axe it. i really hope its not true.
according to the lehman bros. CEO they were doing great right up until they went under...
Post by viciouscircle on Mar 20, 2009 19:10:05 GMT -5
Superfly/AC is not going to cancel their flagship festival even if ticket sales are so slow that they don't break even. The cost to the business overall of such a major level of inconsistency and unreliability is greater than the cost of one year of operating their most well-known division at a loss. Langerado was still a baby festival, they were still tweaking how they ran it, it wasn't that well known and dropping it doesn't hurt the future so much. Dropping Bonnaroo, on the other hand, could cause a loss in faith sufficient to hurt sales for all their future fests and would be more damaging than just losing a couple million one year - who wants to rush to buy tickets for a fest that has a history of cancelling at the last minute? Bottom line - almost all businesses have to operate at a loss at some point. So stop worrying about ticket sales, this show will go on regardless.
Superfly/AC is not going to cancel their flagship festival even if ticket sales are so slow that they don't break even. The cost to the business overall of such a major level of inconsistency and unreliability is greater than the cost of one year of operating their most well-known division at a loss. Langerado was still a baby festival, they were still tweaking how they ran it, it wasn't that well known and dropping it doesn't hurt the future so much. Dropping Bonnaroo, on the other hand, could cause a loss in faith sufficient to hurt sales for all their future fests and would be more damaging than just losing a couple million one year - who wants to rush to buy tickets for a fest that has a history of cancelling at the last minute? Bottom line - almost all businesses have to operate at a loss at some point. So stop worrying about ticket sales, this show will go on regardless.
true, they did make it through the whole bonnaroo NE debacle though
Post by viciouscircle on Mar 20, 2009 19:33:28 GMT -5
I'm more interested in the use of the word "neat" in reference to the additions. Neat is fine, but it's nothing like "big" or "major" so it made me think the adds would not be anything too exciting to a broad audience, more like lots of small acts that are each exciting to niche fan bases. I don't know, it's just an odd choice of word, to me, like they might as well have said keen, or peachy, or swell. But I'm probably overanalyzing.
And if "neat" means Sonic Youth, Mogwai or Dungen, then I'm all for it.
I heard from someone in the know that meetings are happening this weekend to discuss the viability of doing Bonnaroo this year. Evidently, ticket sales are off pace by 50% and there is a very real possibility that it will be canceled. I only have his word and no evidence. The economy must be a lot worse than we imagined if Bonnaroo can't sell tickets with THAT lineup.
No, I'm not joking.
Bonnaroo is one of the three major music festivals in the USA. It would never, EVER, have to cancel, foolio.
I agree. "Neat" is a peculiar choice of words. It also made me think that they are playing cool like they have been since the initial line-up was announced. I think thic coming Wednesday is the day.
I just cannot believe that ticket sales are as bad as some are making them out to be. I mean Phish and Bruce can easily muster the sell out in time. It just seems crazy that both groups together could not muster 80,000 people. I need to see like a legitimate number of tickets sold before I get anything close to worried.
I heard from someone in the know that meetings are happening this weekend to discuss the viability of doing Bonnaroo this year. Evidently, ticket sales are off pace by 50% and there is a very real possibility that it will be canceled. I only have his word and no evidence. The economy must be a lot worse than we imagined if Bonnaroo can't sell tickets with THAT lineup.
No, I'm not joking.
Bonnaroo is one of the three major music festivals in the USA. It would never, EVER, have to cancel, foolio.
Canceling Bonnaroo is officially the dumbest rumor yet. Dumber than the Zep rumor, dumber than this new Radiohead rumor, just plain dumb.
i don't think radiohead will play at all. it is a pretty dumb rumor. but i want them to so bad that'll i'll believe it.
and i was simply saying it would take something that big for bonnaroo to sell out in may.
Haha I don't really know if anyone has said Radiohead has been coming, but I have been saying Radiohead every chance I get because I missed 06 and they are absolutely amazing. And whoever made up Roo canceling you are just a meanie that needs to stop doing this to people...meanie Even though it clearly isn't true it still hurts
I think since the economy is so bad, roo is even more necessary for me than ever. Is there any better way to relax and forget your financial worries for a weekend? I doubt it!
Post by viciouscircle on Mar 21, 2009 10:14:40 GMT -5
It was an attempt by Superfly in 2003 to put on another fest in New York that they ended up cancelling due to contractual concerns with the venue/city. It doesn't have any bearing on Bonnaroo 2009 since nothing whatsoever about that situation was anything like this situation. Especially since all this situation is, really, is a little bit of panic caused by an unsubstantiated and nonsensical rumor.
I heard from someone in the know that meetings are happening this weekend to discuss the viability of doing Bonnaroo this year. Evidently, ticket sales are off pace by 50% and there is a very real possibility that it will be canceled. I only have his word and no evidence. The economy must be a lot worse than we imagined if Bonnaroo can't sell tickets with THAT lineup.
I heard from someone in the know that meetings are happening this weekend to discuss the viability of doing Bonnaroo this year. Evidently, ticket sales are off pace by 50% and there is a very real possibility that it will be canceled. I only have his word and no evidence. The economy must be a lot worse than we imagined if Bonnaroo can't sell tickets with THAT lineup.
No, I'm not joking.
KYS
You f-er's are overreacting. I posted a rumor I heard from someone who has been at Bonnaroo the last 3 years in a performing capacity. I had a backstage pass from this guy last year and I have no reason to believe he was lying. Of course, he heard it from someone else himself. I have an idea... next time anyone has "inside information" (which is exactly what this was), leave this board in the dark. Not worth it.
I do not think Bonnaroo is going to be canceled, but I thought I'd pass it on. 'Scuse the f out of me.
hey man i just said i didn't believe it. but i applaud your effort in trying to give us inside information. please, by all means keep it coming, wether it's real or not it's always welcomed and provides for good conversation. maybe they're just telling people that that is why they're meeting when in reality they're meeting to discuss there big plans for this years Bonnaroo? anyways karma for the info and hopefully to send some good vibes your way.
"Disobedience, in the eyes of anyone who has read history, is man's original virtue. It is through disobedience and rebellion that progress has been made." Oscar Wilde (1854 - 1900), The Soul of Man Under Socialism
"You're either on the bus or off the bus." Ken Kesey
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." Hunter S. Thompson