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well to be honest, I think Trill was mafia... so that is why I voted him. And I am flattered, Bek, that you think I am that sneaky to actually have plotted that BLUNDER out.. When in all actuality it was just my absentmindedness... But without further ado, I would like to reference Kdogg's post in Mafia 9, which dialed out the exact statistics of one player being chosen as mafia two games in a row... Because like I said earlier, I have no special powers this game, and if I did, Kel would be in the gutter somewhere haha ;D
On the Odds of Me being Mafia Two Consecutive Rounds
Since you people obviously don't take me on my own personal word that I am not mafia, I can only hope a numerical Hail Mary analysis can back me up here. As I said earlier, you can argue with a person but it is more difficult to argue against impartial data.
There are 121 possible combinations of successive role assignments that can be had in two consecutive rounds of this game, as played with eleven players.
In this analysis, I will use the letters A-K representing roles in the first round and the numbers 1-11 representing roles in the second round. Lettered and numbered roles will correspond; a first-round A equals a second-round 2, and so on. I will try to keep this simple, since you people seem to have an anti-"thinky" bias against me. The Inspector role will complicate things, is unnecessary for my purposes and will thus be excluded. The changing roster of the game does not matter - this is to demonstrate the likelihood that I, as but one player, have of being mafia in two consecutive rounds.
I designate A/1, B/2, and C/3 as mafia roles. Double mafia duty in this graph are a combination of the letters A-C with a number 1-3.
This is the probability chart of the roles a player may have in two consecutive rounds. A-C & 1-3 = mafia. D-K & 4-11 = non-mafia.
After this, I have a maximum 33-in-121 chance of being mafia. This can be narrowed down further: A: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 B: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 C: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 D: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 E: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 F: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 G: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 H: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 I: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 J: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 K: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 The numbers in bold represent my chances of being mafia twice in a row, out of the initial 121 possibilities. I calculate the odds of my - or anyone, for that matter - being mafia twice in a row as 9-in-121. Percentagewise, the likelihood that I am mafia for a two consecutive rounds is 7.45%. (Personally, I know the likelihood of my being mafia is zero because I am a citizen!)
Now, as I have said, half of the non-kdogg players in this game were in the previous game - almostcertain, cupcake, Meg, purplefuzzystuff, and sadielady. Let's look at the chances of a first-round non-mafia player being mafia in the second round:
There is a 24-in-121 chance that a first-round non-mafia player will be a mafia in the second round. Percentagewise, we're looking at 19.83%. The people who were not mafia last round are 2.66 times as likely as I am to be mafia - and keep in mind there's five of them.
Assume this game goes four rounds. Since half the decisions are made by the mafia, each round is 1/4 of the total choices the collective gets to make. Do you really want to squander 25% of your influence on a decision with a 7.45% chance of being the case?
The chance of being mafia once is 27.27%. The chance of a particular player being mafia twice is 7.45%. Any one of you is 3.66 times more likely to be mafia this round than I am to be mafia twice in a row.
In a nutshell: - Odds of a player being mafia in a single round = 3 in 11 / 27.27% - Odds that one of the five players (besides myself) from the previous round of being mafia this round = 24-in-121 / 19.83% - Odds that I am mafia this round after being mafia last round = 9-in-121 / 7.45% To the mafia, if these people can somehow be swayed by rational argument and I survive this round: My odds of being inspector the round after playing the mafia role = 3-in-121 / 2.48%
By my analysis, each and every one of you has a greater numerical likelihood of being mafia than I do. Those players that weren't in game 8 seem to have a greater likelihood of being mafia (27.27%) than those who did play in game 8 (19.83%). Since I was mafia last game, I have the least chance of being mafia now (7.45%) as well as a lower chance than a game 8 non-participant. If you think about it, I'm the last person you should be voting for. But as I said, you're not thinking about it - and you're ganging up on me because I'm thinking about it.
Whether you decide to vote for me or not, I just did you a favor. I set up some tables and did some number-crunching (there I go being "thinky" about things again) that have a more rational, impartial foundation to them. It is easier to disagree with me as a person/player than it is to disagree with numbers.
I managed to work all this out myself setting up charts with pencil & single sheet of notebook paper and doing the numbers with a calculator. Use my numbers if you like, though I'll admit I didn't adhere to as strict methods as a statistician would. But if you don't trust my figures I encourage you to calculate your own. You'll probably arrive at some similar conclusions and realize that I'm being honest here.
Bek... so you're saying EAP got whacked because the Mafia thought she was the Inspector?
Not exactly... what I am saying is if bacon really is mafia I think that the mafia would have killed me.
I feel like it would be unfair to kill bacon this round based on last round. If you wanted him gone, why didn't you vote for him instead of trill? Now we should be trying to figure out who killed EAP, not dwelling on the last round.
sorry friend, but that looks suspicious... still being focused on what's said and done, it seems like an attempt to detour us.
First round is basically random (except for vote stacking). 99% of the time the mafia are not gonna stack votes against themselves.... it just doesn't make sense to me to take bacon out at this point.
I'm going to change my vote to trill. AWATD >>> higgi >>> trill
if you don't mind me asking, why did you change your vote, wolf? You had all of the same information for your first vote for higgi and your run off vote for trill but you changed your vote with no reason as to why....
At the point Wolf changed his vote, a vote for Higgi was a lost cause. I think he realized this and took one of the sides that might've actually won the vote. Considering the fact that the Mafia chose to whack a Higgi voter, it could've been a life-saving move on his part.
I am open to changing my vote. As I said, if forced to choose between Bacon & Trillbill, I would guess Trillbill was Mafia. I acknowledged my plan would result in voting a Townsperson dead.
I'm honestly happy with voting for any of these candidates, but don't have as much to go on with either of them as I do with Bacon.
So here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to flip a coin. Kel, you tell me if it's going to be heads or tails... get it right, I vote Higgi; get it wrong, I vote you.
At the point Wolf changed his vote, a vote for Higgi was a lost cause. I think he realized this and took one of the sides that might've actually won the vote. Considering the fact that the Mafia chose to whack a Higgi voter, it could've been a life-saving move on his part.
kdogg, I asked the question to wolf and I would have liked to have heard his answer...
Post by rooconteur on Jul 21, 2009 13:05:32 GMT -5
as a referee, and someone who works with numbers, i must say kdogg's math is a bunch of phooey. in a single, random, selection (which this game is) everyone's chance of being mafia is 3/11, inspector 1/11, townsperson 7/11. there are 11 names to choose. being mafia previous games does not increase/decrease the chances of your name being picked.
this is a statement of fact. not meant to influence the outcome of the game. carry on.
I am not scared. I just think the fact that KDOGG will not vote for you, and votes for me, when I know I am innocent. Makes me think y'all are a Mafia team.
At the point Wolf changed his vote, a vote for Higgi was a lost cause. I think he realized this and took one of the sides that might've actually won the vote. Considering the fact that the Mafia chose to whack a Higgi voter, it could've been a life-saving move on his part.
kdogg, I asked the question to wolf and I would have liked to have heard his answer...
Something funny is def going on here...
...makes me think a few people are suspicious...kdogg, wolf, higgi, and kel.
kdogg...your random finger-pointing and "failure" to think that just MAYBE trill and bacon were BOTH innocent(or guilty) makes me feel like you're trying to lead us off some path you'd rather us not go down as mafia
wolf...i voted for you initially just out of randomness. but i found it odd that you didn't just vote me as well...you voted higgi instead. then, the person who dies overnight ends up being someone who voted higgi, making higgi look suspicious(falsely?)
higgi...your suspiciousness comes from what i can't decide is you ACTUALLY being that corned out, or just trying to be like kdogg and lead us off the trail. i'm going to need to try some of what you're nom'ing on to really be sure ;D
kel...you just seem very adament about voting for one particular person(higgi), and are very defensive against kdogg. now, i admit, kdogg can be a very frustrating person(sorry, dogg, but its true), but i can't decide if your frustration is because you want him dead, or because you may know something that could be helpful to the rest of us townspeople...
kel...you just seem very adament about voting for one particular person(higgi), and are very defensive against kdogg. now, i admit, kdogg can be a very frustrating person(sorry, dogg, but its true), but i can't decide if your frustration is because you want him dead, or because you may know something that could be helpful to the rest of us townspeople...
If I wanted Kdogg dead, I would have voted him. I am voting Higgi for the reasons I posted, and no other reasons. Bek, helped me feel better about my vote for higgi, she made the most sense out of anything said so far!
...makes me think a few people are suspicious...kdogg, wolf, higgi, and kel.
kdogg...your random finger-pointing and "failure" to think that just MAYBE trill and bacon were BOTH innocent(or guilty) makes me feel like you're trying to lead us off some path you'd rather us not go down as mafia
wolf...i voted for you initially just out of randomness. but i found it odd that you didn't just vote me as well...you voted higgi instead. then, the person who dies overnight ends up being someone who voted higgi, making higgi look suspicious(falsely?)
higgi...your suspiciousness comes from what i can't decide is you ACTUALLY being that corned out, or just trying to be like kdogg and lead us off the trail. i'm going to need to try some of what you're nom'ing on to really be sure ;D
kel...you just seem very adament about voting for one particular person(higgi), and are very defensive against kdogg. now, i admit, kdogg can be a very frustrating person(sorry, dogg, but its true), but i can't decide if your frustration is because you want him dead, or because you may know something that could be helpful to the rest of us townspeople...
It wasn't a "failure." Mark my words - come the end of this game, one of those two will be confirmed to be Mafia.
Either believe me and work with me, or just kill me now - I promise you, you will come to regret it.
Post by GratefulHippie on Jul 21, 2009 14:03:34 GMT -5
i wasn't trying to imply NEITHER of them are mafia. it's obviously possible they could BOTH be mafia, or your theory...1/2. i'm not disagreeing with your theory so much as adding in some more variables.
however, to me wolf seems more suspicious at this point, so i keep my vote for him.
It wasn't a "failure." Mark my words - come the end of this game, one of those two will be confirmed to be Mafia.
Either believe me and work with me, or just kill me now - I promise you, you will come to regret it.
So, if you're saying what I think you're saying, then your vote for Bacon seems crazy. You voted for Trill both times, and Trill voted for Bacon both times. If Trill and Bacon were working together, I don't see them letting the votes be so close between Higgi and Bacon!
Being the Inspector a few games ago gave me a new vantage point on how this game is played. I didn't guess anybody correctly because I was trying to associate the Mafia name I had with someone through voting. It failed. That's what got me to thinking about Mafia and first-round reciprocal voting.
Over the past few games, I've been increasingly inclined to believe that a preferred Mafia tactic in the first round is to reciprocate votes for one another and hope nobody catches on. Maybe it's been going on all along and I've just picked up on it. From a Mafia point of view, it's actually a pretty nice little scheme...
It's to be expected in the first round, so many people don't give it a second thought. It also throws people off the trail of Mafia identities - it's harder to suspect two people who voted against one another to be in cahoots. It also frees them up to coordinate voting strategy, since they can privately discuss where their two public votes will switch.
So if I'm doing something a little out-there here, it's because I've been becoming a fan of this theory. It's a bit untested, but I think it has its merits.
This is just the first time in a few games y'all have let me live long enough to participate in/discuss it.
I am nulling my vote. I don't want to make any decision on the matter until I hear what Bacon has to say.
