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Post by GratefulHippie on Feb 9, 2010 22:07:02 GMT -5
*sigh*
yes, go ahead and blame the person who would look MOST suspicious THIS late in the game. c'mon guys...give me a little more credit. why on EARTH, after all the back and forth higgi and i had, would i decide to kill HIM of ALL people?! he was the one who pointed at me the MOST!!!
i do believe that there is a girl left as mafia, but i still think it's bama. i've just had it in my gut since the first round, and the fact that she's still around, and has been pretty quiet makes me nervous.
Post by GratefulHippie on Feb 9, 2010 22:14:33 GMT -5
i think the point behind most mafia moves is to NOT be tied to their accomplices. obviously (if you believe NTRT to be mafia) NTRT got thrown under the bus by his peeps because they had to. i think the mafia are down to such a small number of people that they're having to go with obvious kills to divert attention.
this is all just my gut as far as bama...i admit that. but i felt the same about wolf last game, and i was right. if i'm wrong now, forgive me. but this game has been so all over the place that i'm pretty sure i could make a case for everyone to look guilty.
Remember how I said Wolf's "gotcha" vote against NTRT (before Bacon could reciprocate) probably raised Mafia red flags as to who was Inspector? Wolf, Jen & I wound up in a runoff with three votes apiece. The three who voted Wolf into the runoff: NTRT Bacon Bama That runoff came down to 5-5 with Bama as the deciding vote... she sent Wolf to his death.
A couple questions for y'all, since you're grizzled Mafia veterans here... If you're Mafia with the deciding vote between Townsperson kdogg vs. another Townsperson... who would you whack? Would that answer change if it was Townsperson kdogg vs. a suspected Inspector?
Leaving my vote open for feedback. I am also quite, quite curious to hear what Bama has to say for herself...
Um, well first kdogg I would like to point out that the runoff was between YOU and Wolf. And I said that I thought neither were mafia, but I thought you were the better player to keep on hand because of your prowess in the game. I missed the part about wolf being the suspected inspector? I'm confused about that part. When I VOTED in the runoff I said that I didn't think either of you were mafia...and that is honest.
I was unsure about the chief-kdogg deal earlier in the thread but that was just because I didn't like feeling like I was led to vote a certain way. I don't know what else to say about being innocent other than that I AM...hippie came after me for no reason other than the fact that I voted for her randomly in the first round (then changed my vote to wolf).
I have been quiet all this time because I had to tape 13 hoops in one night, then teach hooping class, and then I was moving all weekend long - I actually made a concerted effort to be more active in the thread since I missed that first vote earlier (and why would a mafia member miss a vote? It doesn't make any sense).
Also, hippie just said this:
i think the mafia are down to such a small number of people that they're having to go with obvious kills to divert attention.
If the kill was *obvious*, wouldn't it be *obvious* that it was hippie? If hippie was mafia, wouldn't it be a convenient excuse to kill off higgi and then say, "Oh of course it wasn't me, why would I do that after we talked and how he was suspicious of me the most?"
ALSO NOTE - Higgi switched his vote to bacon at the end of the voting period. I kept my vote because I really do believe hippie is mafia. Wouldn't it make sense now for her to go after me since I think she's mafia?
I feel like it makes WAY more sense for hippie to be mafia...and kdogg, why are you so hesitant to change your vote now when you were *so* certain earlier that the remaining mafia were bacon and hippie?
I want to vote for hippie, but I'm leaving my vote open in case something else comes up.
I said last round that I intended on voting for Hippie, and I cast my first vote accordingly. That was before Higgi got whacked. I've seen Hippie play enough that this does not seem consistent with what she'd do.
I'll try to boil down the Day One thing again. 1. NTRT voted Bacon 2. Wolf jumped in and voted for NTRT before Bacon could reciprocate. If NTRT is Mafia, this would definitely raise a red flag, would it not? 3. Bacon & NTRT both changed their votes, NTRT directly to Wolf & Bacon to Wolf after one other vote change. They were voting against each other, but wound up voting for the same cause? When one of them is Mafia? 4. Joining those two in sending to the runoff, Bama, was none other than you... You know why I'm looking at you because of this, do you not?
As I said, I'd like to hear what you have to say...
Post by ☮ superbek ☮ on Feb 10, 2010 12:47:58 GMT -5
Kdogg... you could seriously be on to something there! You know what else is strange? Jen keep arising suspicion about bama and bama just kept saying that she thought jen was innocent but had no reason as to why? perhaps she knew jen was innocent and she was trying to play up to her to keep suspicion off of her!
If the kill was *obvious*, wouldn't it be *obvious* that it was hippie? If hippie was mafia, wouldn't it be a convenient excuse to kill off higgi and then say, "Oh of course it wasn't me, why would I do that after we talked and how he was suspicious of me the most?"
ALSO NOTE - Higgi switched his vote to bacon at the end of the voting period. I kept my vote because I really do believe hippie is mafia. Wouldn't it make sense now for her to go after me since I think she's mafia?
I feel like it makes WAY more sense for hippie to be mafia...and kdogg, why are you so hesitant to change your vote now when you were *so* certain earlier that the remaining mafia were bacon and hippie?
I want to vote for hippie, but I'm leaving my vote open in case something else comes up.
while i agree with you in theory as far as it being a "convenient excuse", here's why it would be silly of me to try something like that...
if NTRT was mafia(which i think most of believe at this point), that means there are potentially two mafia left, if not one. if there are two, and i do something so obvious as to link myself with the mafia kill, that leaves the mafia with one person, and the burden of having to go ANOTHER round just to win, when it could have been made easier by killing someone less conspicuous and be able to end the game one round sooner. and if i was the ONLY mafia left, it would be even more ridiculous!
bama, you also said it would make more sense for me to go after you NOW. as if this is the first you've heard about me being suspicious of you, even though i've brought you up in several rounds of the game. what WOULD make sense is for you to start pointing the finger at me because i HAVE been suspicious of you for so long, and being close to the end, you know i'd vote for you.
i admit that it's mostly based on my gut rather than anything hard facts, but something hasn't been sitting right with me the entire game, and i think killing bama now will ultimately save the townspeople. my vote remains.
Kdogg... you could seriously be on to something there! You know what else is strange? Jen keep arising suspicion about bama and bama just kept saying that she thought jen was innocent but had no reason as to why? perhaps she knew jen was innocent and she was trying to play up to her to keep suspicion off of her!
Where is jen? I need to hear her...
Hello! I'm right here!
I was going to point that out myself when I read Bama's response that Hippie had been on her case and accusing her since the beginning. She has never really mentioned my insistence that she is guilty and I always felt like I accused her WAY more than Hippie ever did. I still think she looks guilty but I agree with Hippie that as crazy as this game has been you could easily make a case against anyone. Kdogg seems to be making sense about the timing and outcome of Bama's votes.
I need to go back and look at the time she missed her vote. Would her vote have made an huge impact on the results of the kill?
ok so the vote she missed was between Wolf & Kdogg. She voted Wolf when she finally came back.
Hmmmm.
I really don't see Mafia missing a vote between two people unless both parties were innocent...becasue it wouldn't matter to them.
Her missed vote could have been tactical, but isn't that pretty far reaching? It would work b/c she would have that excuse until the end and it could very well keep her alive. I've seen some crazy things happen in this game and it is getting really hard to come up with new ways to mislead the townsfolk. Would someone actually use a missed vote as a way to stay alive until the end? Who would be sneaky enough to come up with a plan like that? Bacon? I don't really see NTRT masterminding a plan like that but you never know what you are gonna get when someone turns rogue. Not that he isn't capable of that caliber of sneakiness but I just have not seen any streak of evil in him that would lead me to believe he would pull a stunt like that.
Am I getting too carried away with hairbrained theories?
Does anyone think this is even a remote possibility? It is pretty damn creative.....but I have a really wild imagnation.
I need to go back and look at the time she missed her vote. Would her vote have made an huge impact on the results of the kill?
As you pointed out in a later post... Bama's vote 1. sent Wolf into the runoff, and 2. decided Wolf's fate in said runoff.
I have been considering Bama's vote-slacking a non-factor. Story time. A while back - I believe during the teen #s of these games - Bama played more often. There was a point where we played two games in a row, and she was late in voting. The first of those games, we were both Townspeople I went after her kinda hard over it, because I thought it looked guilty... The immediate next game, we were both Mafia. Despite our communication privileges and all, she still wound up coming to be the last to vote... and I was in the position of defending even harder against what I'd called suspect the previous game. So, in the end... I don't think Bama slacking on votes will necessarily tell us about her one way or another.
I really don't see Mafia missing a vote between two people unless both parties were innocent...becasue it wouldn't matter to them.
There's garden-variety innocent, and there's "asking about you tonight" variety innocent. One of these is definitely more of a threat to Mafia than the other... At this point, I believe Wolf & I were both just Townspeople... however, a Mafia in Day One wouldn't have the benefit of that hindsight.
Her missed vote could have been tactical, but isn't that pretty far reaching? It would work b/c she would have that excuse until the end and it could very well keep her alive. I've seen some crazy things happen in this game and it is getting really hard to come up with new ways to mislead the townsfolk. Would someone actually use a missed vote as a way to stay alive until the end? Who would be sneaky enough to come up with a plan like that? Bacon? I don't really see NTRT masterminding a plan like that but you never know what you are gonna get when someone turns rogue. Not that he isn't capable of that caliber of sneakiness but I just have not seen any streak of evil in him that would lead me to believe he would pull a stunt like that.
You confuse me here. How would Bama's missed vote keep her alive later in the game? Had she missed that second vote, she would have been dead instead of Wolf or myself. I think we can chalk that up to self-preservation. I thought about the possibility of Bama using the timing-out as a means to prevent Wolf from being killed, but it makes no sense to me. They'd have to be in cahoots, and Bama's two votes for Wolf show otherwise. Wolf's interfering with NTRT's unreciprocated Bacon vote showed those two probably aren't in cahoots. Even if she was trying to protect someone, it wouldn't have been me - I'm innocent - and her vote for Wolf further disproved that.
I think it's quite possible the Mafia thought they had killed the Inspector when Wolf got voted off. I haven't fully investigated this idea, but some questions arise when I ponder it. 1. Did Mafia even have an Inspector candidate other than Wolf to suspect? 2. Would that have emboldened Mafia to use their Night whack on someone they didn't suspect of voting for any of them?
That first round is the most fluid of the game, and if ever there's a time to play it risky with your voting/whacking, it's then because nobody knows what's going on.
Her missed vote could have been tactical, but isn't that pretty far reaching? It would work b/c she would have that excuse until the end and it could very well keep her alive. I've seen some crazy things happen in this game and it is getting really hard to come up with new ways to mislead the townsfolk. Would someone actually use a missed vote as a way to stay alive until the end? Who would be sneaky enough to come up with a plan like that? Bacon? I don't really see NTRT masterminding a plan like that but you never know what you are gonna get when someone turns rogue. Not that he isn't capable of that caliber of sneakiness but I just have not seen any streak of evil in him that would lead me to believe he would pull a stunt like that.
You confuse me here. How would Bama's missed vote keep her alive later in the game? Had she missed that second vote, she would have been dead instead of Wolf or myself. I think we can chalk that up to self-preservation.
I was just saying that if it was a plan all along she could have missed one round with the intentions of not missing another vote....then she would not have been killed off due to missing two votes.
Like I said......it is a totally out-of-this-world idea that they actually planned this and I am not saying I am behind this scenario. I just figured I'd bring it up as an option. I have awild imagination and the possibility occured to me as posssible.
I have way too much time on my hands today. My only job assignment today is to makea Facebook page for the library Reference Department.
Every scenario I have offered up this game has been pretty useless & insane...everyone left looks guilty as hell to me so why not go balls out witheven more insane theories, ya know? I feel totally screwed as far as coming up with who is really mafia at this point. I can't wait for this game to end so I can find out who is who and feel like a dumbass. I think I have accused just about everyone so at least all my bases are covered and I can go back and say..."See, I KNEW _______________ was Mafia! .
I am trying to decide who to vote for between Hippie & Bama.
NTRT >>> Bacon >>> Wolf Wolf >>> NTRT >>> kdogg kdogg >>> Bek >>> null >>> Jen Bacon >>> NTRT>>>Higgi >>> Wolf HGH >>> Jen Bek >>> kdogg Hippie >>> Chief Bama >>> Hippie >>> Wolf Higgi >>> Hippie Chief >>> Jen Jen >>> Wolf >>> null >>> kdogg
Only two players received zero votes this initial vote: Bama & HGH. We can rule out HGH from suspicion since she got whacked. That leaves only Bama with zero votes. If Bama is Mafia, this initial vote produced no players to suspect as Inspector with her name.
Which leads us to NTRT, who I think it's safe to say we're certain about, and Bacon, who we're pretty sure who was in cahoots with NTRT. Who voted for these two? NTRT >>> Bacon >>> Wolf Wolf >>> NTRT Bacon >>> NTRT >>> Higgi >>> Wolf
Even if Bacon were innocent (don't think he was) his vote couldn't necessarily be interpreted as his being Inspector - he was reciprocating NTRT's vote cast first. Like I said, I don't think that's the case... I think NTRT & Bacon were up to some shenanigans here.
If NTRT & Bacon are suspicious, the only people actually voting for either of them were themselves... and Wolf, voting for NTRT. Wolf wound up targeted and killed.
Assuming Chief as Inspector and NTRT/Bacon/Bama as Mafia... eliminating Wolf would have left Mafia with literally zero possible Inspector suspects. It isn't that they opted to whack someone who voted for innocent players - there was probably no alternative. There is still my vote for outside-shot Bek... I think last game demonstrated the folly of whacking your Mafia mate well enough and that could be a disincentive for Mafia to whack a would-be Inspector.
Notice that Chief, with NTRT's name, was tenth (of eleven players) to vote. By the time he came to cast his vote for Jen, the voting results were such that he couldn't steer his named Mafia NTRT into a runoff... doing so would single him out for suspicion and probably whacking. Just imagine the clusterfuck we'd be dealing with now, had he voted NTRT and been whacked on Night One instead...
So, as we all know, HGH got whacked. I think the Day One vote was Mafia-engineered into a situation involving three innocents, killing one of us and having the surviving two at each other's throats. I give them kudos for that plan - after all, it worked for a while. In the midst of all that intra-Townsperson bickering, my focus on Chief pressured him to come out with his role and what he knew. (I suspect my vote change to Wolf in the runoff might have led Chief to think I was in cahoots with NTRT & ask about me.) That three-innocent runoff the Mafia caused wound up backfiring on them, revealing our Inspector and getting us Townspeople back on track.
I know I said I'd wait, and I meant it at the time... but since I'm not going to trust a thing she says anyway...
Higgi, I knew it was going to be either you or me... I knew that as I was writing my "Mafia gender-breakdown" post, but that still had to be done. I'm just surprised it was you and not me.
I'll jump on the Bama bandwagon to get this game over with! If Kdogg, Hippie and Bek are Mafia I am gonna be SO EFFING PISSED!
Jen>>>>Bamaramadingdong
Well. Be prepared to be pissed off because I'm not mafia, and I'm pretty adamant that hippie is.
I dont know what else to say to my defense. I've said everything I can. If you all truly think I came up with some crazy theory to miss a vote, you're wrong. Kdogg - you can check my facebook to see how busy I was that week when I missed the vote.
What makes ME so suspicious all of a sudden besides the fact that hippie is coming after me, on what she says is "just a gut feeling"?
I already explained how your tardiness to vote probably does not indicate your guilt one way or another. I would quibble over the admissibility of Facebook in these arguments... but then I realized that not only am I friended with every surviving player and the Ref, so it should be alright.
Bama, I still remind you that you definitely look the most guilty on paper... but I am at a point where I should have more than one suspect, let I be even more lost should I make it to a final round. I'm going to null my vote and see what Bek and Jen think about this. kdogg >>> null (How the hell did you wind up being the one I trust most, Jen?)
A few things that worry me about Hippie: Hippie voted for Chief in Day One, and in the runoff fell on the Wolf side with NTRT & Bacon. We have this comment:
yes, go ahead and blame the person who would look MOST suspicious THIS late in the game. c'mon guys...give me a little more credit. why on EARTH, after all the back and forth higgi and i had, would i decide to kill HIM of ALL people?! he was the one who pointed at me the MOST!!!
I think Higgi would have also voted for Hippie, had he survived the night... I think the deciding factor in that whacking decision might have been the fact that I publicly declared it (which in the event of my whacking, would have drawn harsher scrutiny) while Higgi did not. So, I think it's debatable that Higgi was pointing at her the most - he made no similar declaration of future voting intent. Hippie as Mafia wouldn't have wanted to go into a round of five already having two votes against her, so one of us had to go. If you were Mafia in her situation, do you think you'd have better odds of survival by whacking the player that did, or did not, declare a future vote for you? I'm thinking the player who didn't say anything might be a safer bet than whacking the one who flat-out said in advance they would vote for you. She said whacking Higgi was done to make her look suspicious, which could be true, but I still think that (assuming she's Mafia) whacking me would have made her look even more suspicious. Combine all that with what I said about the final Mafia being female, and I think I know why Higgi died and not me... I believe there's a strong case that could be made for Hippie as well.
I still think the Townspeople can win this game if both Hippie & Bama wind up dead... I'm just not sure who deserves it more.
Post by ☮ superbek ☮ on Feb 11, 2010 0:18:27 GMT -5
I gotta admit kdogg... I got a little lost in your last couple of posts, lol. So I'm gonna go with what I see.
So if bacon and ntrt (confirmed?) are both mafia. The fact that kdogg, jen, and myself have (finally) started working together renews my faith in the townspeople so that leave bama and hippie.
I know bama missed a vote and I don't hold that against her... but the reason I am suspicious of her isn't because of what she has said or done but it's because of what she HASN'T said or done. After reading bama's mafia posts when pulling her last 50 posts, I she was reluctant to vote for ntrt, continually stated she was confused, and has had a vote out at one time or another for kdogg, jen, and hippie.
I think higgi getting offed is a trap to make hippie look guilty because as kdogg pointed out, he probably would have voted for her. Perhaps bama thought if she offed higgi she could divert attention away from herself for another round... to me voting for hippie this round seems like a trap so...
superbek>>>bama
If she is not our final mafia member, I will absolutely vote for hippie next round (provided I make it through)... scouts honor.
I also promise to vote for Hippie next round, should I survive the night. Let's all who agree openly pledge do to the same... kinda like "I am Spartacus!"