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Post by nitetimeritetime on Jan 26, 2010 0:31:07 GMT -5
Ok, that makes sense. You're right, it's hard to figure much out from a 2-way first round tie.
The only problem I can see with four names is that if Jen votes Hippie, like you were saying, then Hippie has 3 votes, so she'll have to vote Jen to save herself. Then we have 2 people with 3 votes in a runoff. At that point, it takes 3 votes to get anyone else in the runoff, but we can't have 4 people with 3 votes, because there's only 11 people. Right?
I have no idea what you two are talking about, but I'm changing my vote to wolf. I am suspicious of anyone who overthinks that much in the first round.
I need convincing - is Wolf usually like that in mafia?
also, i am a bit suspicious of bama for her vote for the same reason(if you'll remember last round, wolf did the same thing, and sure enough...MAFIA!). however, this is her first game in a while, so i'm willing to cute her some slack.
Wolf did kinda the same thing this time around, except this time he says it's for "funsies."
So if it's happening once out there, it's happening twice...
also, i am a bit suspicious of bama for her vote for the same reason(if you'll remember last round, wolf did the same thing, and sure enough...MAFIA!). however, this is her first game in a while, so i'm willing to cute her some slack.
Wolf did kinda the same thing this time around, except this time he says it's for "funsies."
So if it's happening once out there, it's happening twice...
good point, kdogg. what do you think about sending 3 people into a runoff? or do you think we'd be better served to just vote someone off before that?
Post by awolfatthedoor on Jan 26, 2010 12:28:27 GMT -5
It's not like I'm kdogg here. I've been quieter when I've been mafia than when I've been a tp. Kdogg's post put him on my watchlist along with higgi. I find it interesting that kdogg went right over higgi to me when higgi voted for someone already with a vote.
Oh I was just picking four as a random number to illustrate that I think the more people in the first round runoff, the better.
??? Can someone please explain the logic of sending several people into a run off? I don't think i get it...
I might be wrong, but here's my thinking.
1. With 4 people in the run-off instead of 2 it would be more likely to hit a mafia member randomly. If there were townspeople were picking two random people to throw in a run-off there would be about a 47.1% chance of hitting a mafia member. With four people, again a random number to illustrate the more in the run-off the significantly higher chance we have of randomly hitting someone, we have roughly a 72.1% chance of hitting mafia.
2. In the short run this is just as good as everyone getting one vote. Suspicious activity will still be able to be located just as much as it is under the current everyone receiving one vote system.
3. With a greater chance of a mafia member being thrown in the first round run-off, comes the benefit of making them not vote for their other mafia member. Then late in the game when the tp/inspector figure out one or two mafia members, they should be able to at least rule a couple of people out. Under the current system of two people in the runoff, we have less than a 50% chance of coming up with a mafia members name. If the first round pits tp vs. tp then the mafia can lay low and vote both on completely different sides and early in the round because the outcome does not matter.
I can try and explain more if you want, but that will probably be the best I can do.
Wow, ok...so two votes for me and two votes for Wolf...really guys? The likelihood of Wolf and I being Mafia together three times in a row is pretty far fetched. Jen>>>>Wolf
Sorry, but you know I would have voted you anyway if I would have gotten here sooner. I've been jonesing to do it for ages now but never could
I have more to say but have to switch computers and go work at another desk.
2. In the short run this is just as good as everyone getting one vote. Suspicious activity will still be able to be located just as much as it is under the current everyone receiving one vote system. outcome does not matter.
if suspicious activity is just as apparent regardless of how many votes someone has, then i guess i don't see the need for MORE people in a runoff. i understand your statistics and all, but at the same time, i do think it's to everyone's detriment(except mafia, of course), for people to over-analyze the first round. i think we spend so much time arguing over first round antics than is really necessary simply because we're scared to vote off an innocent. which is a totally rational fear, but is more than likely going to be the outcome regardless, IMO.
Wow, ok...so two votes for me and two votes for Wolf...really guys? The liklihood of wolf and I being Mafia together three times in a row is pretty far fetched. Jen>>>>Wolf
Sorry, but you know I would have voted you anyway if I would have gotten here sooner. I've been jonesing to do it for ages now but never could
I have more to say but have to switch computers and go work at another desk.
so...null until I get back, won't be not long!
soooooooooo i'm confused. are you voting for wolf, or are you staying null for now? ???
Post by awolfatthedoor on Jan 26, 2010 14:47:48 GMT -5
Well if she votes me then I have to change my vote to her. So I'll leave it where it is now, but if she does then change me if I'm not here please if voting is going to close.
2. In the short run this is just as good as everyone getting one vote. Suspicious activity will still be able to be located just as much as it is under the current everyone receiving one vote system. outcome does not matter.
if suspicious activity is just as apparent regardless of how many votes someone has, then i guess i don't see the need for MORE people in a runoff. i understand your statistics and all, but at the same time, i do think it's to everyone's detriment(except mafia, of course), for people to over-analyze the first round. i think we spend so much time arguing over first round antics than is really necessary simply because we're scared to vote off an innocent. which is a totally rational fear, but is more than likely going to be the outcome regardless, IMO.
I could be wrong about this, hippie, but what I thought he was saying was that in the short term, we'll have the same insight into suspicious behavior with a 2-way runoff or 4-way, but with a 4-way, we'll have more info to work with in the long run, a couple of rounds later.
Sorry for double posting, but today is a busy one for me so I have to get all my posts in at once. I'm actually having to work and stuff. At work, no less.
I had to go work on another floor so I had to hurry and finish my post.
I want the townspeople to win this and I can't speak for Wolf but I know I am a townsperson. I truly think that Wolf is a townsperson as well but that is based on the sole fact that I doubt we would be chosen as Mafia three time in a row so voting us into a run-off in round one is the beginnings of a mafia victory, in my opinion...of course HE could be Mafia again, Kel may have picked his name randomly.
I would look elsewhere though for a round one vote. I feel like out of everyone we are least likely to be Mafia and would take a closer look at the people pairing us in a run-off. That is probably who you need to vote for!!
I'll keep my vote nulled in case any townspeople see some logic in what I am saying and want to change my vote (especially since I was MIA yesterday and didn't have a chance to defend myself or tell my opinion). I'll look in over the next few hours and see if anyone has taken what I said to heart and changed their vote. If Kel decides that voting needs to close I'll go ahead & vote. I check my email quite frequently throughout the day (and I'll be on & off here all day slong as my boss isn't hovering) so she can send me a facebook message if she decides that voting has remained open too long and I'll log in and cast my vote.
wolf...i understand your reasoning, and it does make sense. however, your second point was:
if suspicious activity is just as apparent regardless of how many votes someone has, then i guess i don't see the need for MORE people in a runoff. i understand your statistics and all, but at the same time, i do think it's to everyone's detriment(except mafia, of course), for people to over-analyze the first round. i think we spend so much time arguing over first round antics than is really necessary simply because we're scared to vote off an innocent. which is a totally rational fear, but is more than likely going to be the outcome regardless, IMO.
I could be wrong about this, hippie, but what I thought he was saying was that in the short term, we'll have the same insight into suspicious behavior with a 2-way runoff or 4-way, but with a 4-way, we'll have more info to work with in the long run, a couple of rounds later.
Sorry for double posting, but today is a busy one for me so I have to get all my posts in at once. I'm actually having to work and stuff. At work, no less.
yeah, i see what you mean. i'm not really opposed to it at all, i just get worried when we all start to overthink the first round...that's all.
I have no idea what you two are talking about, but I'm changing my vote to wolf. I am suspicious of anyone who overthinks that much in the first round.
I need convincing - is Wolf usually like that in mafia?
Everyone (at some point) overthinks things like that in round one...wait until you read a Kdogg post (he's being unusually quiet)
Wolf as a true townsperson would totally overthink things and post outlandish theories that may not even make any sense becasue he would have two other people influencing him and telling him to lay low and not draw attention to himself.
Saying this actually does nothing for me in terms of self-preservation since I am up against him in a run-off but I am just telling it like I see it. If Wolf ends up being Mafia in the end I'll feel like a total idiot....but I have a hunch that he's not....and neither am I. I would just hate to see two innocents in a run-off and it looks like this will be the case.
I have no idea what you two are talking about, but I'm changing my vote to wolf. I am suspicious of anyone who overthinks that much in the first round.
I need convincing - is Wolf usually like that in mafia?
Wolf as a true townsperson would totally overthink things and post outlandish theories that may not even make any sense becasue he would have two other people influencing him and telling him to lay low and not draw attention to himself.
on the other hand, wouldn't it look equally suspicious for someone who was mafia to lay low and not say anything? plenty of people have been voted for out of lack of participation. so i'm not sure that either theory is really more right than the other.
^ I completely agree with you! I just think in Wolf's case he has been influenced for two games in a row and now he may be letting it all out and saying what is on his mind without having to answer to others.
I'll vote for Kdogg too since it will keep us from going into a run-off for the time being...but of course anyone else can change their vote to me or him forcing either of us in a run-off against Kdogg. His vote could throw either one of us in a run-off with himself if voting doesn't close before he gets back. It would take a lot of convincing me that any of the three of us are Mafia but I'd put my money on Kdogg before me and Wolf. I can never tell if Kdogg is guilty or innocent so its better for me if he's dead in any case
I find it interesting that kdogg went right over higgi to me when higgi voted for someone already with a vote.
I didn't think about it until you said this, but that does sound a little bit like what he did last game when he got caught protecting you.
Don't be saying this is the same situation as last game, because to do so would be wrong. For one, there's two instances of this suspect voting behavior. For two, where's the vote change (like last time) if you think I'm protecting someone? I'm sorry, but you're barking up the wrong tree if you think I'm Mafia.
wait until you read a Kdogg post (he's being unusually quiet)
Here's a thought you may not have considered: I'm a bit quieter this time than last game because - unlike last game - I live under the threat of being whacked.
I truly think that Wolf is a townsperson as well but that is based on the sole fact that I doubt we would be chosen as Mafia three time in a row so voting us into a run-off in round one is the beginnings of a mafia victory, in my opinion...of course HE could be Mafia again, Kel may have picked his name randomly.
I have asked Kel about her selection methods this round. Everyone's name got paired with a number & Kel's bf picked the numbers.
I'm going to null my vote while I ponder whether Jen or Wolf is the one wanting me dead, thereby Mafia and most deserving of my vote. Somewhere out there, there's an Inspector with a guilty name other than my own... I'd like to suggest to them that someone turning the tide against me is Mafia wanting me gone.
