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Someone will probably and say this thread comes too early. To the contrary, I do believe we're late to the party.
The biggest electoral event thus far was when Republican Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy's seat in January, giving the GOP a crucial extra member in the Senate.
Primaries are already underway and things are already starting to heat up. This month alone, we have seen: The Utah state GOP convention denied incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett the opportunity to run for another term. Pennsylvania Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter, courted and converted by the Obama administration, lost the Senate primary to challenger Joe Sestak. Also in Pennsylvania, Democrat Mark Critz won a hotly-contested special election to replace the late Rep. John Murtha. Rand Paul, son of Ron Paul, won the Kentucky GOP Senate primary, defeating an establishment candidate supported by the state's other Senator, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln, a centrist Democrat, failed to gain a majority of votes in the initial primary. She faces a challenge from the left in Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in a June 8th runoff election.
Some marquee races to keep an eye on: Florida Senate: Gov. Charlie Crist left the GOP to become an independent, making Florida's Senate seat a three-way race; opponents include state House Speaker Marco Rubio and a Democrat to be determined. Arizona: Sen. John McCain faces his toughest primary challenge in years; Republican Gov. Jan Brewer faces her first primary/election amid controversy about the state's recent immigration laws. New York Senate: Kirsten Gillibrand faces her first election after being nominated to succeed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. California: Gov. Schwarzenegger is limited from seeking another term, leaving things wide open. Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman is expected to seek the Republican nomination; former Gov. Jerry Brown and Sen. Dianne Feinstein are potential Democratic candidates.
It's not a good year to be an incumbent, and I've got a feeling this is going to be one ugly election cycle. Let's discuss, shall we?
Post by awolfatthedoor on Oct 27, 2010 17:26:26 GMT -5
There was an awesome article in Rolling Stone about how Rand basically turned establishment with McConnell raising money for him and everything. But his supporters are still crazy
Both major parties are epic failures, by wide majorities on each side.
In a state like mine where every race is lopsided in favor of one side - it's an incentive to vote third parties. Your vote matters there more than it does to a D or R. On Tuesday, I'll be looking further down the ballot a bunch of times.
Last Edit: Oct 31, 2010 21:37:27 GMT -5 by LD - Back to Top
First of all, how can your "reality check" be truly as billed if the crux of its argument is based on events that have yet to happen or may never happen at all?
Spare me the mph mumbo-jumbo. I'd like to think we're all smart enough that we can look at the numbers ourselves and draw some conclusions.
I'll focus on the end of the Carter administration to present. Not only is it roughly the entirety of my lifetime, but that's when most of the damage occurred.
U.S. national debt at: 1980: roughly $1 Trillion (Washington-Carter combined) 1992: just over $4 Trillion (Reagan-Bush) 1999: about $5.75 Trillion (Clinton) 2008 (Election Day):$10.6 Trillion (with another Congressionally-approved $1.6T bailout/stimulus in the pipeline) 2009 (Inauguration Day): about $12.2 Trillion Today: $13.7 Trillion
So let's do a quick breakdown.
For starters, I'll give you benefit of the doubt and attribute ALL of the existing US debt to Carter at the end of his administration. Democrats added to the debt: $1 Trillion
Twelve years of Reagan-Bush administrations brought that up to just over $4 Trillion. I'll do you another favor and round that down. Republicans added to the debt: $3 Trillion
I'll do you a third favor and round things up, and say Bill Clinton left office with $6 Trillion in debt - despite the fact that the Clinton administration actually lowered the debt from 1999 to 2000. Democrats added to the debt: $2 Trillion
George W doubled the national debt in his eight years of office. Republicans added to the debt: $6 Trillion
Under Obama, the debt has gone up about $1.5 Trillion Democrats added to the debt: $1.5 Trillion
So we've got $13.7 Trillion in debt, and how does that break down? Democrats = $4.5 Trillion Republicans = $9 Trillion
It's fair to say that Republicans are twice as much the cause of the problem here as the Democrats, is it not?
Over that same time period, 1980-present, there have been thirty budgets proposed from presidents to Congress. Only four were balanced, all of them under Clinton. Democrats: 4 for 10 balancing budgets in my lifetime Republicans: 0 for 20 balancing budgets in my lifetime Note: I by no means endorse an unbalanced budget 60% of the time, but if the alternative is an unbalanced budget 100% of the time I'll take it. I'll also note that the last Republican president to balance a budget was Nixon, and that this probably did not happen during the lifetimes of most who will read this.
So sorry, Fish, I'm not going to buy your argument that "Republican = fiscally responsible" because it is most certainly not the truth. Not in my lifetime, at least.
If we were on the wrong track at the end of the Bush administration, I think his opposition deserves at least half as long to fix things as W had to screw things up.
Pretty upset over the outcome. The guy who won the Senate seat where I'm from (North Carolina) has voted for a Constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage and an amendment that would make it illegal to burn the flag. I find that both sad and frightening.
Same sex marriage won't become legal in NC anytime in the near future. It's stupid but true. It's going to take another generation to get voting age and another generation to die off before the balance swings on that.
As far as flag burning goes, it's protected by the First Amendment. Any actual law would end up overturned. It makes people feel nice and patriotic to be against flag burning but the irony is that the ability to burn the flag is one of the biggest symbols of America.
Yeah, the election was disappointing, especially because exit polls were showing that people were as negative about the Republicans as the Democrats. The biggest message is that the Dems are horrible at standing up and communicating their goals and successes. Republicans know how to stay on message and communicate it, even if it is not based on fact.
what fact is America missing? 1)that even after the stimulus employment is still hovering around 9.5-10% 2)Bush's surge in Iraq actually helped and Obama will not acknowledge that fact...didn't Harry Reid say that the war is lost? 3)AARP, a group that helped Obamacare pass, sending out a letter to it's employees informing them their insurance rates are going up 4)in our own country, there are signs warning Americans to stay away because of the danger associated with drug/people smugglers (makes one feel safe in our their own backyard, doesn't it?)...along those lines, local gov't is not allowed to do what the federal gov't won't do (let's not forget that most of Arizonians, including those of Hispanic descent, and most of the country became upset when Obama sued a state for wanting to protect its borders)
i guess if they stressed all this to the American people the outcome would have been different.
Pres Obama should get out of politics if he is going to cry at all the criticism...comes with the job
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
what fact is America missing? 1)that even after the stimulus employment is still hovering around 9.5-10% 2)Bush's surge in Iraq actually helped and Obama will not acknowledge that fact...didn't Harry Reid say that the war is lost? 3)AARP, a group that helped Obamacare pass, sending out a letter to it's employees informing them their insurance rates are going up 4)in our own country, there are signs warning Americans to stay away because of the danger associated with drug/people smugglers (makes one feel safe in our their own backyard, doesn't it?)...along those lines, local gov't is not allowed to do what the federal gov't won't do (let's not forget that most of Arizonians, including those of Hispanic descent, and most of the country became upset when Obama sued a state for wanting to protect its borders)
i guess if they stressed all this to the American people the outcome would have been different.
Pres Obama should get out of politics if he is going to cry at all the criticism...comes with the job
i guess i'm fear-mongering with these facts
You are entirely welcome to your opinions but since others are reading this, too, I have to comment on your facts:
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment is at 9.2%, down 1.4% since January. (Incidentally, it was at 4.7% when Bush took office.)
As far as the surge in Iraq, I suppose that's based on the premise that invading Iraq in the first place was appropriate. As far as the president not acknowledging that it helped, I'm not sure what you're referencing. I can tell you that on 9/4/08, "in taping a segment for Fox's "O'Reilly Factor," Obama said the surge of U.S. troops has "succeeded beyond our wildest dreams."www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26550764/
RE: AARP employee health insurance rate increases. "A spokesman for the organization says that the law accounts for only a small percentage of the hike. It’s probably true that the group’s insurance premiums would have risen even without the law, though not as much." reason.com/blog/2010/11/05/aarp-blames-obamacare-for-hike
I don't know if you work in an industry that provides health insurance but I can tell you that in my experience, insurance rates get increased on a regular if not annual basis. We shopped for new insurance companies before signing each new contract. But that's just my own experience.
Either way, that seems to be an issue for AARP at this time. I think you have to judge the plan on its impact on the entire nation, not one organization. Also, most of the plan hasn't gone into effect yet.
As far as your fourth point, I don't know what to address. You've mentioned government signage, NO NO WORD!!! smuggling, human trafficking, personal security, the rights of local municpalities vs the federal government and public opinion. That's a whole lot of stuff. I'm sure it informs your feelings about the administration and that's your right. But it's not a statement of fact.
Again, believe what you are going to believe. That's what we're all about.
Note: The non-fact type of things I was referring to were things like the president not being a US citizen, the president being a Muslim, that the existence of "czars" in the administration is proof that the president is trying to make us a communist nation, that Sharia Law is in place in the US, that the long term goal is to form one North American country (Mexamericanada), that the government has created mice with fully functioning human brains etc.
what fact is America missing? 1)that even after the stimulus employment is still hovering around 9.5-10% 2)Bush's surge in Iraq actually helped and Obama will not acknowledge that fact...didn't Harry Reid say that the war is lost? 3)AARP, a group that helped Obamacare pass, sending out a letter to it's employees informing them their insurance rates are going up 4)in our own country, there are signs warning Americans to stay away because of the danger associated with drug/people smugglers (makes one feel safe in our their own backyard, doesn't it?)...along those lines, local gov't is not allowed to do what the federal gov't won't do (let's not forget that most of Arizonians, including those of Hispanic descent, and most of the country became upset when Obama sued a state for wanting to protect its borders)
i guess if they stressed all this to the American people the outcome would have been different.
Pres Obama should get out of politics if he is going to cry at all the criticism...comes with the job
i guess i'm fear-mongering with these facts
1. When did Obama say the surge did not work? He copied it in Afghanistan.
2. Your question does not address where we would be without the Stimulus, so not a fact per se just a observation
3. Yes insurance rates have gone up, also we have Universal Childrens coverage, No pre exixting conditions clauses, and within 2 years we should have exchanges so that people and small companies can buy in pools bringing the cost back down.
4. As to immigration, if the republicans had not spent all their time working against reform, then maybe we could get somewhere, nothing is going to change until we have a comprehensive reform to broken system, even dubya knew that. As to the Arizona law they were sued for breaking existing federal law and trying to usurp the authority of the federal govt. He also sued to stop the repeal of DADT for similar reasons. You can not let states blindly disobey federal law.
You know, I can actually agree somewhat with republicans on fiscal ideas, or least believe both sides could work together. However republicans, and especially this incoming congress is full of morally repugnant cretins when it comes to social issues, or environmental issues. 50% say global warming is not caused by human behavior, they are ready to marginalize homosexuals in every way shape or form available to them. They want to repeal the 14th amendment, and ignore the first when it comes to religion, half the ones from here ran on a platform of not letting local muslims build a new mosque. Thats ok though, now the republicans will not be able to ignore the crazies in there own party, and they will not be able to duck responsibility, and avoid partisanship anymore. I am sure the country will be sick of them by the time 2012 rolls around.
Post by awolfatthedoor on Nov 8, 2010 17:18:56 GMT -5
Maybe the saddest fact of the 2010 results is an exit poll cited by Rick Perlstein: Of likely voters, two-thirds believed Obama had raised their taxes, when in fact, he'd lowered them.
I like how it was "a mandate on the Obama administration" when exit polls showed the Dems had a 53% unfavorable and the Republicans had a so much better.... 52% unfavorable. (Incidentally, the favorables are virtually the same: Democrats - 43%, Republicans - 42%) Source: pewresearch.org/pubs/1789/2010-midterm-elections-exit-poll-analysis
Basically, the message is that the economy sucks and the government (both parties) hasn't done enough to make it better so the electorate has elected for change. Unfortunately, this change has made for a divided Congress that is even much more unlikely to make changes happen.
I think a lot of it was less voting against Obama and more voting against the party in power. It happens a lot - it's the whole point of having elections. Your vote is your voice. And if in two years things still aren't markedly improved, there will be another big shift.