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The way votes are falling, it seems that the Mafia would rather kill Wolf, Indigrainbow and/or myself this round. They're steering the vote that way, at least. Higgi being last in this runoff - and having less votes now than when it began - arouses my suspicion.
So, based on my assumption that the person in the runoff with the fewest votes is most likely to be Mafia:
kdogg >>> Higgi
Hopefully I'm not the only one who sees this. Join me if you think I'm onto something.
C'mon Kdizzle... the world of statistics says three times in a row is highly unlikely, and we all know that you are a stats guy.
Furthermore, I voted to impose a runoff, normal.
I don't think you'd make such a mistake in the first round - but I can see you trying to steer attention away from you in the case that you're mafia.
I can also see you making a move like this if you guys were in really deep. Like if BOTH you AND WOLF are mafia. That would make sense to me, cuz obv it would be your only solution to saving the both of you.
I feel compelled to issue a dissenting opinion on dropping Higgi from the runoff candidates. I think losing him as an option, of all candidates, was the worst thing for the Townspeople to do.
We had ourselves a four-way runoff going, and even though it's my innocent ass up against the wall, I still like that because it's good for the Townspeople. It casts a wider net, which makes it more likely to have a Mafia candidate you can vote off during the day. It lets you learn more about your fellow players' preferences/alliances when they're given more choices.
Which was the case in the first runoff. With four candidates in the running, I think we get to see a wider slice of the big picture. Ten votes into the first runoff, I saw how things were going and I didn't like it. The vote that made me speak up was this:
Here's what I take from this tally. 1. All Mafia have most likely already voted. With ten votes cast and one left to vote, there is an 8-in-11 chance that all three Mafia have voted. Even if Hippie were to be Mafia, a majority of the Mafia have still voted. With that in mind, we're on to... 2. If the Mafia have voted, their preferences can be inferred. To me, this means one of two things: 1 - Mafia wants one of the vote leaders dead. 2 - Mafia wants to protect one of their own.
Both of these reasons made me speak up.
Since I suspected the Mafia had all voted, I took this to indicate Mafia approval of killing myself, Wolf and/or Indigrainbow. None of the Mafia seemed to be in favor of sending Higgi to his death - something that makes me very suspicious of Higgi here. We do know, however, that there are definitely members of the Mafia voting for at least one of the three vote leaders.
Kelaroo & Higgi have a long history of casting reciprocated votes for one another. When I took this into account, the Kel/Higgi business as usual made me think it was more likely that all of the Mafia were voting for the kdogg/Wolf/Indi. So the entire Mafia is most likely in favor of killing myself, Wolf, and/or Indigrainbow... but not one bit interested in voting Higgi dead?
When I made this realization, I spoke up & changed my vote to Higgi and encouraged others to do the same. I couldn't be sure whom among the top three the Mafia wanted to get rid of and act on that, but I am near-certain the Mafia did not want to see Higgi die. The way I see things, a vote for Higgi would have been the least likely to have been associated with the Mafia's preferences. I don't necessarily know about Higgi's guilt... but I can assure you that, when given the choice from these four runoff candidates, the guilty parties in this game did not want to see Higgi dead.
I can't be certain exactly whom the Mafia wants dead in this runoff. A look at the voting records of the three remaining candidates shows just one overlapping vote: both Indigrainbow & myself voted for Wolf leading up to the first runoff. I suspect that, in voting for Wolf, both of us stepped on Mafia toes... explaining our involvement & advancement in the runoff. The fact that Higgi voted for Indi makes me all the more wary of choosing him over Wolf.
Ideally, I think Higgi is the guiltiest of the four runoff candidates. Since he's not a choice, I've got to go with the one who makes me second-most suspicious.
What you say kind of makes sense but considering there are only three mafia in a game it could be they each voted for someone different to prevent connections from being drawn and Kel really is mafia. This would certainly also imply your guilt as well.
C'mon Kdizzle... the world of statistics says three times in a row is highly unlikely, and we all know that you are a stats guy.
I talked to EAP and she used a random number generator. A random number generator made you Mafia twice in a row, and I do not find it entirely impossible that another random draw would make you NOT Mafia. In fact, you have the same 3-in-11 chance of being Mafia that the rest of us do. I'm not buying that argument.
I can also see you making a move like this if you guys were in really deep. Like if BOTH you AND WOLF are mafia. That would make sense to me, cuz obv it would be your only solution to saving the both of you.
It seems too easy, but I think you're both mafia.
First of all, going after Indigrainbow would have been another alternative if BOTH me AND WOLF were Mafia... Second of all, a quick scan of the voting record should show that your claim here is completely and totally full of shit.
What you say kind of makes sense but considering there are only three mafia in a game it could be they each voted for someone different to prevent connections from being drawn and Kel really is mafia. This would certainly also imply your guilt as well.
I just wanted to point out that I changed my vote because of this vote total. I think it's probably far fetched, but not out of reach, that indi may have voted for me to force me to switch my vote from higgi to either indi or kdogg reducing the mafia number from two to one in the runoff.
When it's tied 3-3-3, wouldn't you think that it would be a bit TOO risky of a move for two Mafia in cahoots?
If anything, Kel went after me after I suggested the Mafia was protecting Higgi. Why does that make myself & Kel guilty, instead of Kel & Higgi? Or are you just trying to draw attention away from the possibility of Higgi being guilty?
that actually makes sense to me. I think. Im a bit too tired for complete thoughts. I am going to go back over this in the morning if voting is still open and see if im just going insane right now.
What you say kind of makes sense but considering there are only three mafia in a game it could be they each voted for someone different to prevent connections from being drawn and Kel really is mafia. This would certainly also imply your guilt as well.
This doesn't even make sense to me. I voted Higgi first round because we always do that. I kept my vote with him through the run off.
Could you please explain your theory on me being mafia more?
When it's tied 3-3-3, wouldn't you think that it would be a bit TOO risky of a move for two Mafia in cahoots?
If anything, Kel went after me after I suggested the Mafia was protecting Higgi. Why does that make myself & Kel guilty, instead of Kel & Higgi? Or are you just trying to draw attention away from the possibility of Higgi being guilty?
Me voting you had nothing to do with Higgi, but had everything to do with the way you seem to be all about wolf and indi being innocent. It's the first round and you have already started calling people out as looking guilty. That looks suspicious to me. How can you even tell?
Edit: And to clarify I didn't vote Higgi again be he wasn't in the run off or else my vote would have stayed the same.
On the Odds of Me being Mafia Two Consecutive Rounds
Since you people obviously don't take me on my own personal word that I am not mafia, I can only hope a numerical Hail Mary analysis can back me up here. As I said earlier, you can argue with a person but it is more difficult to argue against impartial data.
There are 121 possible combinations of successive role assignments that can be had in two consecutive rounds of this game, as played with eleven players.
In this analysis, I will use the letters A-K representing roles in the first round and the numbers 1-11 representing roles in the second round. Lettered and numbered roles will correspond; a first-round A equals a second-round 2, and so on. I will try to keep this simple, since you people seem to have an anti-"thinky" bias against me. The Inspector role will complicate things, is unnecessary for my purposes and will thus be excluded. The changing roster of the game does not matter - this is to demonstrate the likelihood that I, as but one player, have of being mafia in two consecutive rounds.
I designate A/1, B/2, and C/3 as mafia roles. Double mafia duty in this graph are a combination of the letters A-C with a number 1-3.
This is the probability chart of the roles a player may have in two consecutive rounds. A-C & 1-3 = mafia. D-K & 4-11 = non-mafia.
After this, I have a maximum 33-in-121 chance of being mafia. This can be narrowed down further: A: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 B: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 C: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 D: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 E: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 F: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 G: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 H: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 I: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 J: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 K: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 The numbers in bold represent my chances of being mafia twice in a row, out of the initial 121 possibilities. I calculate the odds of my - or anyone, for that matter - being mafia twice in a row as 9-in-121. Percentagewise, the likelihood that I am mafia for a two consecutive rounds is 7.45%. (Personally, I know the likelihood of my being mafia is zero because I am a citizen!)
Now, as I have said, half of the non-kdogg players in this game were in the previous game - almostcertain, cupcake, Meg, purplefuzzystuff, and sadielady. Let's look at the chances of a first-round non-mafia player being mafia in the second round:
There is a 24-in-121 chance that a first-round non-mafia player will be a mafia in the second round. Percentagewise, we're looking at 19.83%. The people who were not mafia last round are 2.66 times as likely as I am to be mafia - and keep in mind there's five of them.
Assume this game goes four rounds. Since half the decisions are made by the mafia, each round is 1/4 of the total choices the collective gets to make. Do you really want to squander 25% of your influence on a decision with a 7.45% chance of being the case?
The chance of being mafia once is 27.27%. The chance of a particular player being mafia twice is 7.45%. Any one of you is 3.66 times more likely to be mafia this round than I am to be mafia twice in a row.
In a nutshell: - Odds of a player being mafia in a single round = 3 in 11 / 27.27% - Odds that one of the five players (besides myself) from the previous round of being mafia this round = 24-in-121 / 19.83% - Odds that I am mafia this round after being mafia last round = 9-in-121 / 7.45% To the mafia, if these people can somehow be swayed by rational argument and I survive this round: My odds of being inspector the round after playing the mafia role = 3-in-121 / 2.48%
By my analysis, each and every one of you has a greater numerical likelihood of being mafia than I do. Those players that weren't in game 8 seem to have a greater likelihood of being mafia (27.27%) than those who did play in game 8 (19.83%). Since I was mafia last game, I have the least chance of being mafia now (7.45%) as well as a lower chance than a game 8 non-participant. If you think about it, I'm the last person you should be voting for. But as I said, you're not thinking about it - and you're ganging up on me because I'm thinking about it.
Whether you decide to vote for me or not, I just did you a favor. I set up some tables and did some number-crunching (there I go being "thinky" about things again) that have a more rational, impartial foundation to them. It is easier to disagree with me as a person/player than it is to disagree with numbers.
I managed to work all this out myself setting up charts with pencil & single sheet of notebook paper and doing the numbers with a calculator. Use my numbers if you like, though I'll admit I didn't adhere to as strict methods as a statistician would. But if you don't trust my figures I encourage you to calculate your own. You'll probably arrive at some similar conclusions and realize that I'm being honest here.
I feel compelled to issue a dissenting opinion on dropping Higgi from the runoff candidates. I think losing him as an option, of all candidates, was the worst thing for the Townspeople to do.
We had ourselves a four-way runoff going, and even though it's my innocent ass up against the wall, I still like that because it's good for the Townspeople. It casts a wider net, which makes it more likely to have a Mafia candidate you can vote off during the day. It lets you learn more about your fellow players' preferences/alliances when they're given more choices.
first of all, i think you're trying REALLY hard to make higgi a guilty party. much harder than anyone else is to make another player look that way. so either you're inspector trying to tell us something, or you're mafia and trying to steer attention another direction. considering how many games i've played with you, i think it's safe to say you're not inspector because you would never be this obvious so soon.
second, yes, a four way runoff is ideal...which is exactly what happened. and is it were, the collective group thinks higgi is less guilty at this point than you, wolf, or indi. right now there are still 11 players, with only 3 being mafia. which means the majority of innocents thinks higgi is not guilty. so i'm not sure where all your conspiracy theories are coming from so early into the game.
Which was the case in the first runoff. With four candidates in the running, I think we get to see a wider slice of the big picture. Ten votes into the first runoff, I saw how things were going and I didn't like it. The vote that made me speak up was this:
Here's what I take from this tally. 1. All Mafia have most likely already voted. With ten votes cast and one left to vote, there is an 8-in-11 chance that all three Mafia have voted. Even if Hippie were to be Mafia, a majority of the Mafia have still voted. With that in mind, we're on to... 2. If the Mafia have voted, their preferences can be inferred. To me, this means one of two things: 1 - Mafia wants one of the vote leaders dead. 2 - Mafia wants to protect one of their own.
Both of these reasons made me speak up.
again, we DID have a runoff with 4 people, and the group decided by votes, the majority of which are still innocents, that higgi is not as guilty at this point as the three other candidates.
as for your inferences about what it means...DUH! your first inference is that all mafia have voted. well no kidding...i was the only person left to vote. 3rd grade math would deduce that conclusion. i'm not sure what that has to do with anything, or what you think it even implies considering 3 out of the 4 votes are tied. your second, two part, inference was that mafia either wants someone in the runoff dead, or they're protecting their own...again, DUH! what else would they be doing?? they either want to kill an innocent, or they want to keep one of their own from being killed...what is weird about that? that's how you play the game...
Since I suspected the Mafia had all voted, I took this to indicate Mafia approval of killing myself, Wolf and/or Indigrainbow. None of the Mafia seemed to be in favor of sending Higgi to his death - something that makes me very suspicious of Higgi here. We do know, however, that there are definitely members of the Mafia voting for at least one of the three vote leaders.
again, your insistence that higgi stay in as a candidate is really making you look bad. not to mention you keep talking as though mafia has control of votes at this point. THERE ARE ONLY 3 MAFIA, AND THERE ARE 8 INNOCENTS. how exactly can a 3 way tie determine mafia stacking if they are out-numbered? obviously 8 of the votes are from innocents, so your point doesn't make sense.
Kelaroo & Higgi have a long history of casting reciprocated votes for one another. When I took this into account, the Kel/Higgi business as usual made me think it was more likely that all of the Mafia were voting for the kdogg/Wolf/Indi. So the entire Mafia is most likely in favor of killing myself, Wolf, and/or Indigrainbow... but not one bit interested in voting Higgi dead?
thanks for repeating your stance. again, mafia is out-numbered, so your insistence that they are somehow swaying this game, or that a 3 way tie proves ANYTHING regarding their voting pattern is just silly.
When I made this realization, I spoke up & changed my vote to Higgi and encouraged others to do the same. I couldn't be sure whom among the top three the Mafia wanted to get rid of and act on that, but I am near-certain the Mafia did not want to see Higgi die. The way I see things, a vote for Higgi would have been the least likely to have been associated with the Mafia's preferences. I don't necessarily know about Higgi's guilt... but I can assure you that, when given the choice from these four runoff candidates, the guilty parties in this game did not want to see Higgi dead.
again, you're acting as though the mafia somehow has this game on lockdown with their number of votes. there are only 3 of them, and 8 innocents. let's say all 3 mafia members had voted for higgi. that still leaves 8 people to cast votes, and what if it had gone 4-4 and YOU didn't have votes? or what if indi didn't get votes? or what if higgi had 3 and you had 3, and indi and wolf were split 1-1? my point here is that there are OBVIOUSLY a zillion different options on how votes could have gone. it just so happens that 3 of the 4 candidates got 3 votes each. it doesn't prove ANYTHING regarding mafia, especially considering they were forced to vote for those 4 specifically, and not the entire group.
I can't be certain exactly whom the Mafia wants dead in this runoff. A look at the voting records of the three remaining candidates shows just one overlapping vote: both Indigrainbow & myself voted for Wolf leading up to the first runoff. I suspect that, in voting for Wolf, both of us stepped on Mafia toes... explaining our involvement & advancement in the runoff. The fact that Higgi voted for Indi makes me all the more wary of choosing him over Wolf.
Ideally, I think Higgi is the guiltiest of the four runoff candidates. Since he's not a choice, I've got to go with the one who makes me second-most suspicious.
kdogg>>>Wolf
i voted for wolf and i didn't get targeted. although, i suppose i could die tonight, but that's besides the point. you are again coming back to higgi as if he's done or said anything that would even slightly imply he's mafia...which he hasn't. you've been basing your suspicions on faulty probability, which is resulting in me thinking you're more guilty than you think higgi is.
I am neither Inspector trying to tell you something nor a Mafia trying to save anyone's skin. EITHER WAY I would be drawing too much attention to myself. Consider my playing style here as having nothing to lose, because I'm not either in cahoots or in a unique position to help the Townspeople. I am Townsperson, plain and simple, and all I've got is my logic to back me up. So I'm hammering away at that.
Voting me dead guarantees we're down a Townsperson, I can promise you that. Voting for one of these other two, though, might have more favorable results...
Ah quack it, I know it'll piss y'all off, but since I've got to work for the next 14-15 hours and don't have time to properly respond...
Got a text from EAP threatening to kill me. I pointed out I hadn't voted & she had discretion to cut me some slack. She said something about my itchy trigger finger when I closed the vote that killed her last name.
kdogg >>> Wolf
I can read/respond to whatever was said above later. For now, I'm totally busted if my boss comes back in to find me online with her laptop.
What you say kind of makes sense but considering there are only three mafia in a game it could be they each voted for someone different to prevent connections from being drawn and Kel really is mafia. This would certainly also imply your guilt as well.
This doesn't even make sense to me. I voted Higgi first round because we always do that. I kept my vote with him through the run off.
Could you please explain your theory on me being mafia more?
Sorry I don't really have a"theory" on you being mafia. I was just trying to show who kdogg was protecting if he were Mafia. It was late and I was tired and I can barely understand what I typed either. In fact I feel comfortable about Kdogg not being Mafia to do this.
Oh whoops I went for the eenie meenie miny mo method on this: suberbek>>>kdogg kdogg >>> Bek ntrt >>> wolf Kel>>>>Higgggi Mike D>>Indig hippie >>> boothead indi>>>MIKE D Wolf>>>Ntrt>>>Hippie Higgi>>>Kel Bacon>>>Kdogg
The way votes are falling, it seems that the Mafia would rather kill Wolf, Indigrainbow and/or myself this round. They're steering the vote that way, at least. Higgi being last in this runoff - and having less votes now than when it began - arouses my suspicion.
So, based on my assumption that the person in the runoff with the fewest votes is most likely to be Mafia:
kdogg >>> Higgi
Hopefully I'm not the only one who sees this. Join me if you think I'm onto something.
Ideally, I think Higgi is the guiltiest of the four runoff candidates. Since he's not a choice, I've got to go with the one who makes me second-most suspicious.
Ah quack it, I know it'll piss y'all off, but since I've got to work for the next 14-15 hours and don't have time to properly respond...
kdogg>>>null
If you don't like it, thank Hippie.
Okay I am going in order of votes cast and seeing a strange relationship that I think should be noted
Posts in order go as follow:
1. Kdogg votes Wolf 2. Wolf votes for Higgi [me] 3. Wolf changes to Kdogg 4. Higgi [me] votes Indi - absolutely no correlation to either Kdogg or Wolf - making no reason for them to both vote me - albeit at different times. [my vote still remains with INDI] 5. Kdogg changes to Higgi [me] 6. Kdogg changes to Wolf - to be on record voting for him, this after I called them out as a possible mafia pair, trying to steer attention away from them and onto me. [higgi] 7. Kdogg goes NULL! - very important to consider, as he didn't want his vote to stand with WOLF because he is going to be 'working' and would most likely be pissed if his mafia buddy was killed while he wasn't there to help save him.
Basically, both Kdogg and Wolf have been on record voting for each other. I say 'on record' because they could have done this to use as a future defense, i.e. "i voted him, we can't be working together."
They also have a vote for me [higgi] in common, which strikes me as odd, because I haven't voted either of them, which is another reason I believe Kdogg was steering attention my way and away from him and Wolf.
**This just in- Kdogg finalizes his vote for WOLF. Does he doe this, again to be on record, after realizing Wolf is already lost?
Form your own opinions I am just offering mine. But there is definitely something to be found here.
Higgi if kdogg and I were working together we could both switch our votes to indi killing him off.
True.. but if you did that we'd DEFINITELY know you were guilty. This way leaves hope that maybe Kdogg can, well, Kdogg us into thinking he is innocent.
You could but that would show obvious cahootiness (yay making new words!). You may have decided its worth losing one mafia to make another look clean. Who knows the first round is always completely random. There is probably a bigger chance that you are both innocent than anything else, but we have to kill somebody.
Post by awolfatthedoor on Aug 3, 2010 14:57:26 GMT -5
Assuming things held the way they were kdogg would still look guilty to you guys.
I want to know exactly what I've done to look guilty.
1. I voted for ntrt because we are voting partners. 2. Changed my vote to hippie because I wanted to put more people in the runoff. I messed up and hippie hadn't had a vote. Now assuming I'm mafia what about this move stinks like a mafia move. Was hippie's vote really enough to make the mafia want to kill her off? Or is this an obvious mess up that is unrelated to anything the mafia does? 3. I changed my vote to higgi because I wanted to put more people in the runoff. This move actually does what I had hoped. Put more people in the runoff. I chose higgi at random. I wasn't jumping on the kdogg bandwagon or anything. Also if kdogg and I were mafia why would we want higgi dead? His vote for Kel? Or his vote for indi? This makes no sense. 4. I voted for kdogg for self-preservation reasons. I wanted the vote totals tied.
