Whether it's your first Bonnaroo or you’re a music festival veteran, we welcome you to Inforoo.
Here you'll find info about artists, rumors, camping tips, and the infamous Roo Clues. Have a look around then create an account and join in the fun. See you at Bonnaroo!!
I kinda feel bad for you. I don't know what it is but you are not very good at surviving the first round. This actually makes me even less sure you are not mafia, but unfortunately for you not unsure enough to change my vote.
Post by awolfatthedoor on Aug 3, 2010 15:04:09 GMT -5
I do this every time. I'm going to shut up and vote next time I play this game. Also I know I'm going to die, but I think kdogg is right. I go back to higgi being mafia.
**This just in- Kdogg finalizes his vote for WOLF. Does he doe this, again to be on record, after realizing Wolf is already lost?
I may have written this down in my note wrong, but didn't kdogg finalizing his vote for wolf make the vote tally
kdogg - 4 wolf - 4 indi - 3
Or maybe I'm misunderstanding what you mean when you say kdogg was realizing that wolf was already lost?
He was null and then received a life threatening text from Ref EAP saying he needed to vote. He returned to see that Wolf was all but dead, so to again try to disprove any connections between the two of them, he jumped on the bandwagon and voted Wolf.
Although if the ref forced a mafia member to vote in a situation like that I would feel that she would be greatly abusing her power. I actually kinda think this only further implies Kdogg's innocence.
Also I know I'm going to die, but I think kdogg is right. I go back to higgi being mafia.
See this sounds like the the last plea of a dying man..
I know I am innocent, and for the both of you to oddly call me out with NO REASONING behind it in the first round AFTER being mafia for the past two games... Definitely sounds the sirens to me.
Also I know I'm going to die, but I think kdogg is right. I go back to higgi being mafia.
See this sounds like the the last plea of a dying man..
I know I am innocent, and for the both of you to oddly call me out with NO REASONING behind it in the first round AFTER being mafia for the past two games... Definitely sounds the sirens to me.
I would just like to get it on the record that that I am highly suspicious of anyone who uses the "I was Mafia last game its super unlikely I would be again this game" argument. I understand the numbers. I also understand your role last game has no bearing on your role this game.
For the record, I did not force kdogg to vote. I told him technically the 36hr rule would be up if he waited until 2am to vote. Also at the time, there wasn't much debate going on besides him posting (which is obviously not what's going on now).
I am 100% leaving voting open until kdogg can get off work tonight, I just let him know he can't be nulling and working 13hrs every round, or else this game will take as long as the other one.
Post by indigrainbow on Aug 3, 2010 15:26:15 GMT -5
just a note on probability.. if you flip a coin, chances seem 50/50 that it will land on tails. whether or not it lands on tails, the next time you flip it, the chances are still 50/50 that it will land on tails. flipping a coin a number of times doesn't somehow make the coin have more sides.
See this sounds like the the last plea of a dying man..
I know I am innocent, and for the both of you to oddly call me out with NO REASONING behind it in the first round AFTER being mafia for the past two games... Definitely sounds the sirens to me.
I would just like to get it on the record that that I am highly suspicious of anyone who uses the "I was Mafia last game its super unlikely I would be again this game" argument. I understand the numbers. I also understand your role last game has no bearing on your role this game.
I don't blame you, and I technically have not used it as a defense. This post was merely referring to the odds that are extremely in my innocence's favor.
1. They both voted me with no justification. 2. They have both labeled me guilty with no justification. 3. I voted NEITHER of them - until just now in attempts to force a runoff. 4. I was mafia the last two games in a row - which information was used to point out that they are clearly going after me - because with the information provided they have NO reason to believe my guilt.
also... It just so happens that we all end up in a runoff and Kdogg tries to point guilt AWAY from the two of them and put it on me? Coincidence?? I find it hard to believe.
just a note on probability.. if you flip a coin, chances seem 50/50 that it will land on tails. whether or not it lands on tails, the next time you flip it, the chances are still 50/50 that it will land on tails. flipping a coin a number of times doesn't somehow make the coin have more sides.
Exactly, while the math is correct in Kdogg's giant probability post he was using it to manipulate people. I believe he even admitted to that later, although don't quote me on that because I was not involved in mafia when that happened.
I kind feel like you are doing the same thing Higgi that Kdogg was doing so many games ago. So far I think you may be the most suspicious person in the game. I now wish I would have helped in voting you into this run-off.
just a note on probability.. if you flip a coin, chances seem 50/50 that it will land on tails. whether or not it lands on tails, the next time you flip it, the chances are still 50/50 that it will land on tails. flipping a coin a number of times doesn't somehow make the coin have more sides.
Exactly, while the math is correct in Kdogg's giant probability post he was using it to manipulate people. I believe he even admitted to that later, although don't quote me on that because I was not involved in mafia when that happened.
I kind feel like you are doing the same thing Higgi that Kdogg was doing so many games ago. So far I think you may be the most suspicious person in the game. I now wish I would have helped in voting you into this run-off.
absolutely not. i'm not the one who posted the stats, it was Kel. Bacon, believe it or not, I am fighting for the innocents this game, and I do believe you are over-analyzing. Plus, we are playing with 11 players, how does the probability of a coin flip, with only two choices, have any relevance here? It's not flip a coin and either you're mafia or you're not.
INSPECTOR!!!! Please, I encourage you to ask about me tonight!!
EDIT:: to include quote [this thread is moving fast - about damn time!]
Post by indigrainbow on Aug 3, 2010 15:46:39 GMT -5
the reason i posted about a coin flip is because the law of averages is deceiving. the random number generator doesnt know how many times you have been mafia before and thus doesnt know it is supposed to slight towards your innocence, therefore the ratio is still 3 out of 11 that you or anyone else is mafia.
**This just in- Kdogg finalizes his vote for WOLF. Does he doe this, again to be on record, after realizing Wolf is already lost?
From what I can tell, when kdogg nulled his vote, the vote tally became kdogg - 4 wolf - 3 indi - 3
Then when he came back to finalize his vote, nobody else had voted in between the null and the final vote. He finalized his vote for wolf, making the vote kdogg - 4 wolf - 4 indi - 3
How exactly would kdogg have been realizing that wolf was lost? If he had voted for indi, it would have put kdogg and indi into a tie, basically saving wolf.
the reason i posted about a coin flip is because the law of averages is deceiving. the random number generator doesnt know how many times you have been mafia before and thus doesnt know it is supposed to slight towards your innocence, therefore the ratio is still 3 out of 11 that you or anyone else is mafia.
i get this, but equating it to a coin flip is quite skewed.
**This just in- Kdogg finalizes his vote for WOLF. Does he doe this, again to be on record, after realizing Wolf is already lost?
From what I can tell, when kdogg nulled his vote, the vote tally became kdogg - 4 wolf - 3 indi - 3
Then when he came back to finalize his vote, nobody else had voted in between the null and the final vote. He finalized his vote for wolf, making the vote kdogg - 4 wolf - 4 indi - 3
How exactly would kdogg have been realizing that wolf was lost? If he had voted for indi, it would have put kdogg and indi into a tie, basically saving wolf.
My mistake, I thought WOLF was already lost at this point. I didn't realize it was tied.
But still, had he done anything else but vote for WOLF, it would of BLATANTLY made it look like he was trying to SAVE WOLF.
Does that make sense? That is the general idea I was trying to convey...
Post by indigrainbow on Aug 3, 2010 15:58:01 GMT -5
over a long enough period of time, it is likely that each player will serve as mafia an estimated 3 out of 11 games, but that is not dependent on or the cause of when they are mafia. i myself earlier stated that i wasnt going to bank (at the time) on higgi being mafia again for the third time in a row, but that had more to do with higgi not doing anything (to me) suspicious at the time, not math. even if higgi were mafia 10 times in a row, the chances of him being mafia again are still 3 in 11. the area where probability comes in such as kel's quote from kdogg is if we were to try to guess the chances of a series of roles. for instance:
what's the probability that higgi would have the first mafia role in the first game, the third mafia role in the second game, and the fourth innocent role in the third game?
or, to simplify, what's the probability that higgi would draw mafia twice in a row and then innocent for the third game?
that specific string of incidents represents a probability. the "law of averages" makes us feel like higgi being mafia the third game is less likely than higgi being innocent the third game, which is correct. but not by a staggering ratio difference. it is still a 3 in 11 chance that higgi is mafia.
Actually, it really is. Same concept applies with flipping a coin, rolling a dice, spinning a roulette wheel, picking mafia.
No he was directly talking about a 50/50 chance.. I was just making it clear that it is not a 50/50 chance at being chosen for mafia. It's 3/11 or whatever percentage that is [I'm a writer, math isn't my friend]
I mean, I know it isn't impossible or even that unlikely that one could be chosen as mafia three times in a row. But all I'm saying is that it aint happenin' here.
