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Oscar tends to favor non-fictional characters overcoming adversity (My Left Foot, Schindler's List, Braveheart) so The King's Speech has more than a snowball's chance - but, using that same logic, so does 127 Hours. Still, I expect the Academy will bow to royalty over a one-armed American.
And I think Hailee Steinfeld could be Oscar's Arcade Fire - a longshot surprise who beats out the mainstream nominees. The Academy has a perennial hard-on for the Coen brothers (which I don't mind!), so I can see them giving the lass a nod while passing over the film for Best Picture.
i love 127 Hours but it doesnt have a chance because Danny Boyle just won two years ago, its running time is too short, & its a one-man show with that one-man being the host. none of these things should matter but they always do in oscar politics. it was just my personal favorite of the year.
another thing Hailee Steinfeld has in her favor is her role as a lead actress in a supporting actress category. True Grit was her story and she as a character and actress carried that film the whole way.
Maybe the worst ceremony I've ever seen...which is kind of saying something. It's like they got half their ideas from watching youtube and the other half from what Anne Hathaway thinks is cool.