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Why did you feel the need to attempt to kill me off/Narrow the runoff down to just you and me. No one else felt the need to switch their vote to try and kill someone off without a runoff.
Why did you suggest giving the mafia a free kill in the first round?
I'm going to wait for Kdogg to answer these questions before I cast my vote.
Post by ☮ superbek ☮ on Feb 8, 2011 12:24:15 GMT -5
whoa.... I forgot we were playing for a minute.
I guess I will keep my vote to be fair since I always vote for kdogg first round but I reserve the right to change said vote if I feel he proves his innocence to the group.
1. As has been documented in like the last five games I've played, I think voting in pairs gives the mafia a free pass in the first round. I didn't reciprocate to shake things up. 2. I know better than to speak for someone else. Ask him questions if you want.
Now for you.
Why did you feel the need to attempt to kill me off/Narrow the runoff down to just you and me. No one else felt the need to switch their vote to try and kill someone off without a runoff.
Why did you suggest giving the mafia a free kill in the first round?
No one else felt the need to switch, or no one else changed their vote to me? Think about it like that.
How are you so certain the Mafia is getting a free kill out of this, anyway?
I'm a Townsperson and I have some doubt... why are you so certain??
Post by awolfatthedoor on Feb 8, 2011 14:04:21 GMT -5
Not certain at all, but the list of people that have done anything suspicious is one right now.
IF ffym was killed of by the townies like you suggested, then in all likelihood, unless you're trying to claim some sort of inside knowledge, the mafia would get a free kill of an innocent without a voting trail in round 1.
IF ffym was killed of by the townies like you suggested, then in all likelihood, unless you're trying to claim some sort of inside knowledge, the mafia would get a free kill of an innocent without a voting trail in round 1.
I just don't think the Mafia would be that obvious about it. I'm not saying Kdogg is innocent but I didn't find that situation all that strange. He proposed something out of frustration and no one took him up on the offer. Heck, knowing him, he might have done it to see if he could bate some people.
I don't think you've done anything highly suspicious either, so Kdogg is acting a tad hawkish. Since he ask that we hurry up we I'm going to go ahead and chime in. This could very well change after further discussion.
-When I Hear My Name -Dead Leaves and the Dirty Ground -Blue Orchid -Passive Manipulation -Red Rain -Death Letter -My Doorbell -Hotel Yorba -Same Boy You've Always Known -Lovesick -Little Ghost -We're Going to Be Friends -The Hardest Button to Button -Black Math -The Nurse -I Just Don't Know What to Do With Myself
Encore: -Ball and Biscuit -Seven Nation Army -Screwdriver
kdogg >>> null Procedural reasons only. Standing outside the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, to which I made a pilgrimage today to welcome home the WORLD CHAMPION GREEN BAY PACKERS.
Rest assured, I will be back later tonight. And it shall be epic
At this point, I don't believe either party is mafia. Both Wolf and Kdogg acted out of the norm, but both explained themselves rather well. I am gonna keep my vote with wolf, just to keep the playing field semi level, but I am certainly open to changing my vote, should someone offer compelling evidence that suggests I should.
I am really torn between the two. I honestly believe that if one of em is mafia they both are. He could be getting all into this due to the Packers, but his hint at the trick up his sleeve that he can't reveal yet I believe means he s mafia just trying to get in enough rounds to deal some damage.
When wolf decided that they needed a runoff between only him and kdogg he had to know that he is slimming his chances of survival. For whatever reason he wanted us to know blatantly that he and kdogg are butting heads right off the bat. Combine that with my earlier statement about whatever is up kdoggs sleeve and you have two mafia that is leaving the third to hide in the dark as long as possible. That's my two cents anyway.
I am really torn between the two. I honestly believe that if one of em is mafia they both are. He could be getting all into this due to the Packers, but his hint at the trick up his sleeve that he can't reveal yet I believe means he s mafia just trying to get in enough rounds to deal some damage.
When wolf decided that they needed a runoff between only him and kdogg he had to know that he is slimming his chances of survival. For whatever reason he wanted us to know blatantly that he and kdogg are butting heads right off the bat. Combine that with my earlier statement about whatever is up kdoggs sleeve and you have two mafia that is leaving the third to hide in the dark as long as possible. That's my two cents anyway.
I've been waiting for this post for a while. I had a nice frustrating moment of opportunity a couple of games back, after I'd endured yet another one-vote victory in a Day One runoff. Frustrating because it seemed to happen all the time; opportunity because that light bulb over my head spurred me to do some further research. I'd always make the claim that Mafia were trying to set me up, but I never really had anything solid to put behind it.
So I went back over the Day One votes of the recent games in which I was a player, all five in the past year, to see whether I could infer some rhyme or reason into the perpetual occurrence of Mafia singling me out. In the interest of brevity, I won't cut and paste a multitude of vote tallies from five different games... though I could easily clutter up this thread (even more) proving that point.
I played five games in the year preceding this game. Two as Mafia, three as Townsperson, none as Inspector.
In the two games [28 & 29] where I was Mafia, I never made it into the Day One runoff. Just sayin'. (And would I have drawn so much unnecessary attention to myself in this game if I were Mafia now?)
All three games [27, 31, 32] where I was a Townsperson, the ultimate Day One vote had me surviving against my runoff opponent with a one-vote margin of victory. The similarities don't stop there. Every one of these games, there was exactly one Mafia putting me into the runoff. Every one of those subsequent runoffs, a second Mafia joined that one in advancing me in the runoff. Every one of those games, there was one Mafia voting alongside me so the three of them were not voting together.
In short, every one of my 5-6 runoff wins had two Mafia voting against me and one voting along with me. You'd have to go back further than a year to find a time when this did not occur. I think it's fair to assume something similar has happened now.
It's pretty easy to break down once you know the pattern. All you need is: 1. A first Mafia to send kdogg into the runoff. Suspects: Bek, wolf, Bacon 2. A second Mafia to join them once the runoff is underway. Suspects: SFA, Airline 3. A third Mafia to vote alongside me in the runoff. Candidates: jhammett, EAP, FFYM, noage, Mike D
Note the phrasing I'm using here. I differentiate suspects and candidates on their basis of likelihood of being Mafia. Some of these players deserve higher scrutiny than others as this game proceeds. I pretty much laid it out above, but for future reference:
1-in-3 likelihood of being Mafia: Bek, wolf, Bacon 1-in-2 likelihood of being Mafia: SFA, Airline 1-in-5 likelihood (1-in-6 if you wanna split hairs, I know I'm not Mafia) of being Mafia: jhammett, EAP, FFYM, noage, Mike D
I am by no means suggesting to ignore the 1-in-5s and their lowest likelihood; rather, I suggest to my fellow Townspeople that one player from each group I listed is a member of the Mafia. It's up to we Townspeople to determine which player from each group is the guilty party. I hope this breakdown helps get us off to a good start of where we should be looking.
I do not know whether or not wolf is guilty, and it doesn't really matter who my opponent is in the runoff. If this Mafia is like every other one we've had lately (and we haven't had one unlike that in some time) then their members are likely falling into these predictable roles. We can use this against them.
I hope y'all understand why I had to drag my feet on this until everyone had voted.
I just don't think the Mafia would be that obvious about it. I'm not saying Kdogg is innocent but I didn't find that situation all that strange. He proposed something out of frustration and no one took him up on the offer. Heck, knowing him, he might have done it to see if he could bate some people.
Votes Cast Bek >>> kdogg kdogg >>> Wolf >>> null >>> Wolf Wolf >>> kdogg Jham >>> Wolf EAP >>> Wolf Bacon >>> kdogg FFYM >>> Wolf SFA >>> kdogg Airline >>> kdogg noage >>> Wolf Mike D >>> Wolf
I am really torn between the two. I honestly believe that if one of em is mafia they both are. He could be getting all into this due to the Packers, but his hint at the trick up his sleeve that he can't reveal yet I believe means he s mafia just trying to get in enough rounds to deal some damage.
When wolf decided that they needed a runoff between only him and kdogg he had to know that he is slimming his chances of survival. For whatever reason he wanted us to know blatantly that he and kdogg are butting heads right off the bat. Combine that with my earlier statement about whatever is up kdoggs sleeve and you have two mafia that is leaving the third to hide in the dark as long as possible. That's my two cents anyway.
Votes Cast Bek >>> kdogg kdogg >>> Wolf >>> null >>> Wolf Wolf >>> kdogg Jham >>> Wolf EAP >>> Wolf Bacon >>> kdogg FFYM >>> Wolf SFA >>> kdogg Airline >>> kdogg noage >>> Wolf Mike D >>> Wolf
-When I Hear My Name -Dead Leaves and the Dirty Ground -Blue Orchid -Passive Manipulation -Red Rain -Death Letter -My Doorbell -Hotel Yorba -Same Boy You've Always Known -Lovesick -Little Ghost -We're Going to Be Friends -The Hardest Button to Button -Black Math -The Nurse -I Just Don't Know What to Do With Myself
Encore: -Ball and Biscuit -Seven Nation Army -Screwdriver