Coachella 2016:No Money for the Undercard

Even with this history of gross unpredictability (although Rose has definitely tightened up his act in recent years) and transcendent performances, sources say both AEG Live and Live Nation have their hats firmly in the ring to produce a 2016 GNR stadium tour. The financial risks for stadium shows are huge, even with proven draws. Production costs run roughly $1.6 million -- plus talent costs and an average tax of five to seven percent. With those expenses, it could take a box-office gross of about $4.8 million just to break even, and with an acceptable promoter profit of $300,000-400,000, the gross would have to hit $5.1-5.2 million before the band would get into overage (meaning enough tickets have been sold for the band to receive a percentage of the gross). Stadiums provide the capacity to put 8,000-9,000 tickets at the P1 price point of about $250, providing the artist can sell at that level; one promoter interviewed by Billboard estimates a ticket scale ranging from $250 - $59. To come out in the black on these estimated expenses would require a $100 average ticket price on 50,000 fans, or a $90 average ticket price on 60,000 tickets sold.

If a show does get into overage it could add another $200,000 or so the band’s estimated $3 million payday. A GNR reunion would likely spur huge merchandising sales -- as much as $20 per head -- generating another $750,000 to $1 million, with the lion’s share also going to the band.

The potential for a huge financial windfall exists, but much hinges on the Coachella performances. After 22 years, will the reunited band gell? Will they adhere to Coachella’s midnight curfew? In the case of Guns N’ Roses, their reputation is both a blessing and a curse.

“They were a dangerous rock band -- you never knew what was gonna happen,” says a promoter who worked with GNR back in the day. “A certain amount of that is great in rock n’ roll, but there’s a fine line between being dangerous and being a dick.”