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Post by actually @fortyfive33 now on Nov 11, 2015 18:13:03 GMT -5
First, a note: Shooter threat is over for now. I'm still alive. Back to mafia.
Second, JFG, I'm a journalism student in Columbia, Missouri. A large chunk of my time over the past week and a half has been taken up by what's been going on around here. I'm an anchor for the drivetime radio broadcast*, I analyzed the Mississippi State game, and in general have been super busy with the events in town (including the press conferences). I went "off the grid" so I could do my job.
Also, I suck at math, so I probably did something wrong in figuring that keeping my vote where it was IRT Carini would preserve the runoff.
Fun fact: we (the student radio station) broke the Jonathan Butler story. I'll have to find that segment the next time I'm in for my rotation show. But that's neither here nor there.
Carini, that was the question you avoided that got me going on you: sfa mentioned he didn't want to move off of eap as he thought it'd help mafia. I knew sfa did not KNOW anything, but i was trying to point to eap in case I was the second whack.
And as for not addressing rothric, did you not see the multiple post back and forth we had where he shut me out?
My first nights guess was sfa. Bad luck that he was also the whack, and I considered the possibility, but if he stayed in the game, I had to know he was town or not.
My second nights guess was slack. He is town. I believe rummy's multiple mentions of eap at the end of d2 spared me the whack that night.
So if we assume rummy was town along with myself, slack and sfa, with eap as mafia that leaves:
Rothric Tainted Jaz Carini Jimmy Dragon
Jimmy put eap in two run offs as the last vote her I believe. Ballsy of jimmy if he is mafia - probably town. Eap also had her vote on jimmy in d1 final run off.
Tainted was taken out by a crew of: rothric, carini, slack, jfg, jaz. Slack and myself are town. Jaz moved to vote to Tainted to self preserve, so he gets a small break. Rothric and carini on Tainted from the jump with reluctance to say why. Eap on jaz for the old 2-1 split. Nothing solid, but enough to go on where in hindsight I think Tainted was more likely town.
Carini and rothric have both avoided questions that could point to eap. I asked rothric directly what he meant bringing her name up. Did anyone else see a change in his demeanor (in game) after that? They voted together on tainted and jaz, neither saying why they thought tainted was more suspicious of jaz d2, but jaz was good to vote for the very next day.
Of course, one of their only other options than jaz day 3 was eap. Cant vote for eap.
I'm about 50/50 on jaz, and i could easily see him being the third if I am wrong on either carini or rothric.
Dragon, who knows. That was a real boon for mafia, but it's hard for to believe they would spend a player so soon.
I'm conclusion, and by my best guesses, if you believe dragon was town, your mafia are eap and two of: rothric, carini, jaz.
If you believe dragon was mafia, your mafia are eap, dragon, and one of the three from: rothric, carini, jaz.
I really would have liked to get in another guess, but I knew I pushed it too far going after eap. Even if I wasnt in the run off they would have whacked me tonight. I was going to announce anyway so town can have the meager info I was able to collect, and where that info pointed, in my estimation.
Eap, shame on you for using school kids to excuse your mafia-ness! Kidding; I know everything is fair game, but woah.
Woah, wasn't expecting an inspector reveal so late in the game. I'm not sure whether or not to believe you at this point - my knee-jerk reaction is to get defensive, but that's just because it's down to you or me and since I know I'm town it's easy for me to see you as a Mafia trying to get out of a tight spot. But it could just as easily be that we're both town, and if that's the case I hope Dragon or Taint was Mafia, otherwise the game is over anyway. So I'm trying to keep an open mind, but I do have a couple questions:
Knowing that there is a good chance the Mafia are EAP/Carini/Rothric, why did you not come out before EAP was eliminated from the runoff? Because if that trio ends up being the case, we're fucked now because you didn't come out sooner. This is the biggest issue for me - if you are inspector, your choosing to wait may have cost us the game. Why not come out sooner and ensure that we go at least to another round? EAP has been playing erratically and has had plenty of heat on her throughout the game, so it's not like it would have been hard to get people to believe you.
If you're most suspicious now of myself, Carini, and Rothric, why did you vote along with the three of us to oust Taint? Is this just a case of hindsight being 20/20, and you didn't have enough info to put the pieces together at that point?
Why did you guess SFA? He held his vote on EAP until his vote was cleared, so if EAP was your name, I feel that should have tipped you off that he wasn't Mafia with her, or at least would have made him a less likely candidate for your guess.
Obviously your reveal doesn't affect my vote, but I'm wary because if you are Mafia with two alive players, getting me voted off wins you the game. Of course (from the point of view of other townies), the same would be true if I were Mafia with two alive players (so it makes sense for the rest of the town to be wary of both of us), but from my perspective I have good reason for concern.
So if we assume rummy was town along with myself, slack and sfa, with eap as mafia that leaves:
Rothric Tainted Jaz Carini Jimmy Dragon
Jimmy put eap in two run offs as the last vote her I believe. Ballsy of jimmy if he is mafia - probably town. Eap also had her vote on jimmy in d1 final run off.
I went back and looked at the vote logs. I only see Jimmy putting EAP into a runoff once, on D1R1. Which that by itself, wouldn't make me automatically discount both Jimmy and EAP being Mafia together, could be a distancing move. However, EAP went right back and put Jimmy in the runoff as well. I don't see Mafia doing that to themselves, ever. And then EAP came back at Jimmy in D2R1, but it never got any traction. So I do believe that Jimmy is town if you're telling the truth.
Tainted was taken out by a crew of: rothric, carini, slack, jfg, jaz. Slack and myself are town. Jaz moved to vote to Tainted to self preserve, so he gets a small break. Rothric and carini on Tainted from the jump with reluctance to say why. Eap on jaz for the old 2-1 split. Nothing solid, but enough to go on where in hindsight I think Tainted was more likely town.
Carini and rothric have both avoided questions that could point to eap. I asked rothric directly what he meant bringing her name up. Did anyone else see a change in his demeanor (in game) after that?
This is where I start to have some issues with it. Jaz actually started out with his vote on Tainted in D2R1. He only moved to Carini to create the 3 way runoff when prompted by others. Both Carini and myself started D2R1 on you. I only moved off of you and onto Taint after the quick stack to 4 on Jaz on D2R2, I was the vote move that made it very unlikely you'd end up in the next runoff.
I have no idea what you're talking about with myself and EAP. In fact, I expressed suspicion of her, which you even acknowledged:
I don't like how the stack on Jaz occurred, and something just seems different about EAP to me this game.
As far as voting for Tainted over Carini, Tainted being one of the votes on Jazmo was part of it. The other part was my vote was coming off of you to one of these two, and you had your vote on Carini.
It's funny; I reread pages 8-10, and you, jimmy, jaz, and rummy have all cited EAP as acting mafia-like. She started the run on the votes this round. I guess I have to join you all in being suspicious of her.
I answered the bulk of your questions. I got pissed and stopped answering when I was the only one offering forward any information. And the sit back and wait thing was really getting to me (EAP is very guilty of this too).
They voted together on tainted and jaz, neither saying why they thought tainted was more suspicious of jaz d2, but jaz was good to vote for the very next day.
Of course, one of their only other options than jaz day 3 was eap. Cant vote for eap.
I told you, the whack made look Jaz look very suspicious. Even he sees that. I said at the time as well, that it's completely possible it was done in a way to frame Jaz.
I'm about 50/50 on jaz, and i could easily see him being the third if I am wrong on either carini or rothric.
Dragon, who knows. That was a real boon for mafia, but it's hard for to believe they would spend a player so soon.
I'm conclusion, and by my best guesses, if you believe dragon was town, your mafia are eap and two of: rothric, carini, jaz.
If you believe dragon was mafia, your mafia are eap, dragon, and one of the three from: rothric, carini, jaz.
I really would have liked to get in another guess, but I knew I pushed it too far going after eap. Even if I wasnt in the run off they would have whacked me tonight. I was going to announce anyway so town can have the meager info I was able to collect, and where that info pointed, in my estimation.
Eap, shame on you for using school kids to excuse your mafia-ness! Kidding; I know everything is fair game, but woah.
If EAP truly is your given name, why do you think Jazmo likely to be Mafia with her? In D2R2 EAP moved her vote to Jaz and didn't take it off, leaving the decision to you. Yes, she could have moved her vote if you ended up picking Jaz, but that would bring a lot of heat her way. Not saying it couldn't happen, but definitely a gamble.
At this point, if EAP is Mafia, I'm leaning towards Carini being her 2nd. Not sure on the 3rd yet if that's the case, but leaning towards Jaz being town.
I'm not fully convinced of your claim yet, but it does have some merit. For that reason, I'm going to leave my vote on Jazmo to see what Mafia does with their whack.
I think it's possible that Mafia didn't have a firm grasp on who might be Inspector, so they went with Rummy for 2 reasons. Rummy was definitely poking around EAP, and they could use it to frame Jazmo next round.
Post by potentpotables on Nov 11, 2015 18:38:57 GMT -5
Since this was originally only a 12 hour round, I'll hear from those not involved in the runoff whether they'd like an extension. Also, the rule remains - any vote cast after 8pm EST will automatically trigger a 12 hour extension.
First, a note: Shooter threat is over for now. I'm still alive. Back to mafia.
Second, JFG, I'm a journalism student in Columbia, Missouri. A large chunk of my time over the past week and a half has been taken up by what's been going on around here. I'm an anchor for the drivetime radio broadcast*, I analyzed the Mississippi State game, and in general have been super busy with the events in town (including the press conferences). I went "off the grid" so I could do my job.
Also, I suck at math, so I probably did something wrong in figuring that keeping my vote where it was IRT Carini would preserve the runoff.
Fun fact: we (the student radio station) broke the Jonathan Butler story. I'll have to find that segment the next time I'm in for my rotation show. But that's neither here nor there.
Slack, I'm glad you are ok. I know you are town now; rothric was just asking why I guessed you night 2.
Since this was originally only a 12 hour round, I'll hear from those not involved in the runoff whether they'd like an extension. Also, the rule remains - any vote cast after 8pm EST will automatically trigger a 12 hour extension.
I'd say go for a 12 hour extension to end it tomorrow morning. Will allow us to have more discussion without dragging it out to long.
Carini, that was the question you avoided that got me going on you: sfa mentioned he didn't want to move off of eap as he thought it'd help mafia. I knew sfa did not KNOW anything, but i was trying to point to eap in case I was the second whack.
And as for not addressing rothric, did you not see the multiple post back and forth we had where he shut me out?
My first nights guess was sfa. Bad luck that he was also the whack, and I considered the possibility, but if he stayed in the game, I had to know he was town or not.
My second nights guess was slack. He is town. I believe rummy's multiple mentions of eap at the end of d2 spared me the whack that night.
So if we assume rummy was town along with myself, slack and sfa, with eap as mafia that leaves:
Rothric Tainted Jaz Carini Jimmy Dragon
Jimmy put eap in two run offs as the last vote her I believe. Ballsy of jimmy if he is mafia - probably town. Eap also had her vote on jimmy in d1 final run off.
Tainted was taken out by a crew of: rothric, carini, slack, jfg, jaz. Slack and myself are town. Jaz moved to vote to Tainted to self preserve, so he gets a small break. Rothric and carini on Tainted from the jump with reluctance to say why. Eap on jaz for the old 2-1 split. Nothing solid, but enough to go on where in hindsight I think Tainted was more likely town.
Carini and rothric have both avoided questions that could point to eap. I asked rothric directly what he meant bringing her name up. Did anyone else see a change in his demeanor (in game) after that? They voted together on tainted and jaz, neither saying why they thought tainted was more suspicious of jaz d2, but jaz was good to vote for the very next day.
Of course, one of their only other options than jaz day 3 was eap. Cant vote for eap.
I'm about 50/50 on jaz, and i could easily see him being the third if I am wrong on either carini or rothric.
Dragon, who knows. That was a real boon for mafia, but it's hard for to believe they would spend a player so soon.
I'm conclusion, and by my best guesses, if you believe dragon was town, your mafia are eap and two of: rothric, carini, jaz.
If you believe dragon was mafia, your mafia are eap, dragon, and one of the three from: rothric, carini, jaz.
I really would have liked to get in another guess, but I knew I pushed it too far going after eap. Even if I wasnt in the run off they would have whacked me tonight. I was going to announce anyway so town can have the meager info I was able to collect, and where that info pointed, in my estimation.
Eap, shame on you for using school kids to excuse your mafia-ness! Kidding; I know everything is fair game, but woah.
Woah, wasn't expecting an inspector reveal so late in the game. I'm not sure whether or not to believe you at this point - my knee-jerk reaction is to get defensive, but that's just because it's down to you or me and since I know I'm town it's easy for me to see you as a Mafia trying to get out of a tight spot. But it could just as easily be that we're both town, and if that's the case I hope Dragon or Taint was Mafia, otherwise the game is over anyway. So I'm trying to keep an open mind, but I do have a couple questions:
Knowing that there is a good chance the Mafia are EAP/Carini/Rothric, why did you not come out before EAP was eliminated from the runoff? Because if that trio ends up being the case, we're fucked now because you didn't come out sooner. This is the biggest issue for me - if you are inspector, your choosing to wait may have cost us the game. Why not come out sooner and ensure that we go at least to another round? EAP has been playing erratically and has had plenty of heat on her throughout the game, so it's not like it would have been hard to get people to believe you.
If you're most suspicious now of myself, Carini, and Rothric, why did you vote along with the three of us to oust Taint? Is this just a case of hindsight being 20/20, and you didn't have enough info to put the pieces together at that point?
Why did you guess SFA? He held his vote on EAP until his vote was cleared, so if EAP was your name, I feel that should have tipped you off that he wasn't Mafia with her, or at least would have made him a less likely candidate for your guess.
Obviously your reveal doesn't affect my vote, but I'm wary because if you are Mafia with two alive players, getting me voted off wins you the game. Of course (from the point of view of other townies), the same would be true if I were Mafia with two alive players (so it makes sense for the rest of the town to be wary of both of us), but from my perspective I have good reason for concern.
Not coming out before eap went out was probably my biggest mistake. I kept going back and forth. Slack was my only chance to get someone to move onto eap, and that was out after jimmy moved. Eap also came in with a last minute vote. The short extension was there too.
As to you second question (#ing them would make it easier), i had to vote tainted or jaz - I chose taint and said neither of you had done anything at that point.I begged people to vote for carini.
I had to be sure sfa was town. I knew eap was mafia but he didn't. I saw it as possible distancing. I used it to point to eap after.
So if we assume rummy was town along with myself, slack and sfa, with eap as mafia that leaves:
Rothric Tainted Jaz Carini Jimmy Dragon
Jimmy put eap in two run offs as the last vote her I believe. Ballsy of jimmy if he is mafia - probably town. Eap also had her vote on jimmy in d1 final run off.
I went back and looked at the vote logs. I only see Jimmy putting EAP into a runoff once, on D1R1. Which that by itself, wouldn't make me automatically discount both Jimmy and EAP being Mafia together, could be a distancing move. However, EAP went right back and put Jimmy in the runoff as well. I don't see Mafia doing that to themselves, ever. And then EAP came back at Jimmy in D2R1, but it never got any traction. So I do believe that Jimmy is town if you're telling the truth.
Tainted was taken out by a crew of: rothric, carini, slack, jfg, jaz. Slack and myself are town. Jaz moved to vote to Tainted to self preserve, so he gets a small break. Rothric and carini on Tainted from the jump with reluctance to say why. Eap on jaz for the old 2-1 split. Nothing solid, but enough to go on where in hindsight I think Tainted was more likely town.
Carini and rothric have both avoided questions that could point to eap. I asked rothric directly what he meant bringing her name up. Did anyone else see a change in his demeanor (in game) after that?
This is where I start to have some issues with it. Jaz actually started out with his vote on Tainted in D2R1. He only moved to Carini to create the 3 way runoff when prompted by others. Both Carini and myself started D2R1 on you. I only moved off of you and onto Taint after the quick stack to 4 on Jaz on D2R2, I was the vote move that made it very unlikely you'd end up in the next runoff.
I have no idea what you're talking about with myself and EAP. In fact, I expressed suspicion of her, which you even acknowledged:
It's funny; I reread pages 8-10, and you, jimmy, jaz, and rummy have all cited EAP as acting mafia-like. She started the run on the votes this round. I guess I have to join you all in being suspicious of her.
I answered the bulk of your questions. I got pissed and stopped answering when I was the only one offering forward any information. And the sit back and wait thing was really getting to me (EAP is very guilty of this too).
They voted together on tainted and jaz, neither saying why they thought tainted was more suspicious of jaz d2, but jaz was good to vote for the very next day.
Of course, one of their only other options than jaz day 3 was eap. Cant vote for eap.
I told you, the whack made look Jaz look very suspicious. Even he sees that. I said at the time as well, that it's completely possible it was done in a way to frame Jaz.
I'm about 50/50 on jaz, and i could easily see him being the third if I am wrong on either carini or rothric.
Dragon, who knows. That was a real boon for mafia, but it's hard for to believe they would spend a player so soon.
I'm conclusion, and by my best guesses, if you believe dragon was town, your mafia are eap and two of: rothric, carini, jaz.
If you believe dragon was mafia, your mafia are eap, dragon, and one of the three from: rothric, carini, jaz.
I really would have liked to get in another guess, but I knew I pushed it too far going after eap. Even if I wasnt in the run off they would have whacked me tonight. I was going to announce anyway so town can have the meager info I was able to collect, and where that info pointed, in my estimation.
Eap, shame on you for using school kids to excuse your mafia-ness! Kidding; I know everything is fair game, but woah.
If EAP truly is your given name, why do you think Jazmo likely to be Mafia with her? In D2R2 EAP moved her vote to Jaz and didn't take it off, leaving the decision to you. Yes, she could have moved her vote if you ended up picking Jaz, but that would bring a lot of heat her way. Not saying it couldn't happen, but definitely a gamble.
At this point, if EAP is Mafia, I'm leaning towards Carini being her 2nd. Not sure on the 3rd yet if that's the case, but leaning towards Jaz being town.
I'm not fully convinced of your claim yet, but it does have some merit. For that reason, I'm going to leave my vote on Jazmo to see what Mafia does with their whack.
I think it's possible that Mafia didn't have a firm grasp on who might be Inspector, so they went with Rummy for 2 reasons. Rummy was definitely poking around EAP, and they could use it to frame Jazmo next round.
Whoo, big post; I'm working on mobile, please either break them up or number the questions. It would help me not miss anything.
You asked why I think jaz is mafia with eap. I can only suspect. By my process of elimination, the only three LIVING players who would be with her are jaz, rothric, and carini. It can only be two of those three, and that is assuming taint and dragon were town.
You mentioned that you moved after jaz got stacked to 4 d2: who made that stack?
I'm making the best of a bad situation. I tried to get everyone to see without exposing myself. I realize I probably made a mistake which will be a huge part of the town losing.
Post by potentpotables on Nov 11, 2015 19:58:07 GMT -5
Extension granted, round will close at 10am EST Thursday, November 12. I'm inclined to make this a hard-ish deadline, the exception being last minute votes.
Ok, just want to bring to one page the final vote logs for Days 1 and 2. Tired of having so many damn tabs open. Went through and added all the strike throughs too, think I got them all right. I do find those helpful (thanks Jaz), let's you easily see when someone's vote stuck.
Ref's Note: "Extension granted, round will close at 10am EST Thursday, November 12. I'm inclined to make this a hard-ish deadline, the exception being last minute votes."
And Jfg, I will say I can see how the whacks of SFA and Rummy can both be used to support your claim.
If Mafia is EAP/Carini/Dragon, SFA definitely came after both EAP and Dragon in D1 before being whacked. Rummy voted for Dragon on D1, mentioned suspicions of EAP on D2, and she was the one that orchestrated getting Carini back into the runoff for D2R3.
If Mafia is EAP/Carini/Tainted, same reasons could apply. Granted Tainted was one of the votes that made it possible to get Carini back in the runoff for D2R3, but he could just as easily moved his vote back off Carini once the next round started.
If you are the Inspector, I think you made a big mistake by not coming out last round, while EAP was still in the running. I absolutely had suspicions of EAP before this, as mentioned in my previous post. I know others could have gone along with you too.
At this point, I'm leaning towards believing your claim. And that means I likely think the most likely Mafia combos are the two I mentioned above.
However, I've proven to be pretty bad at this game in all but one I've played. So who knows, maybe I'm being taken again. We shall see.
Curious to hear from some of the others at this point.
And Jfg, I will say I can see how the whacks of SFA and Rummy can both be used to support your claim.
If Mafia is EAP/Carini/Dragon, SFA definitely came after both EAP and Dragon in D1 before being whacked. Rummy voted for Dragon on D1, mentioned suspicions of EAP on D2, and she was the one that orchestrated getting Carini back into the runoff for D2R3.
If Mafia is EAP/Carini/Tainted, same reasons could apply. Granted Tainted was one of the votes that made it possible to get Carini back in the runoff for D2R3, but he could just as easily moved his vote back off Carini once the next round started.
If you are the Inspector, I think you made a big mistake by not coming out last round, while EAP was still in the running. I absolutely had suspicions of EAP before this, as mentioned in my previous post. I know others could have gone along with you too.
At this point, I'm leaning towards believing your claim. And that means I likely think the most likely Mafia combos are the two I mentioned above.
However, I've proven to be pretty bad at this game in all but one I've played. So who knows, maybe I'm being taken again. We shall see.
Curious to hear from some of the others at this point.
Before you move on to some one else - and thank you for taking time to dissect things - why didn't you give eap just as much guff for late voting as you did me?
Several times you have been mad at a player just for putting in the last vote. Eap's was the most crucial made at or after the deadline after waiting all day, with no solid explanation and changed the landscape of the game.
I'm not trying to deflect from my bads, but I think what I asked you could pertain to the game if town makes it to day 4.
and i can't believe you guys are falling for this. i was his only given name yet he waited to reveal me until i was already removed from the runoff? if we haven't killed any mafia, then the game is over.
And Jfg, I will say I can see how the whacks of SFA and Rummy can both be used to support your claim.
If Mafia is EAP/Carini/Dragon, SFA definitely came after both EAP and Dragon in D1 before being whacked. Rummy voted for Dragon on D1, mentioned suspicions of EAP on D2, and she was the one that orchestrated getting Carini back into the runoff for D2R3.
If Mafia is EAP/Carini/Tainted, same reasons could apply. Granted Tainted was one of the votes that made it possible to get Carini back in the runoff for D2R3, but he could just as easily moved his vote back off Carini once the next round started.
If you are the Inspector, I think you made a big mistake by not coming out last round, while EAP was still in the running. I absolutely had suspicions of EAP before this, as mentioned in my previous post. I know others could have gone along with you too.
At this point, I'm leaning towards believing your claim. And that means I likely think the most likely Mafia combos are the two I mentioned above.
However, I've proven to be pretty bad at this game in all but one I've played. So who knows, maybe I'm being taken again. We shall see.
Curious to hear from some of the others at this point.
Before you move on to some one else - and thank you for taking time to dissect things - why didn't you give eap just as much guff for late voting as you did me?
Several times you have been mad at a player just for putting in the last vote. Eap's was the most crucial made at or after the deadline after waiting all day, with no solid explanation and changed the landscape of the game.
I'm not trying to deflect from my bads, but I think what I asked you could pertain to the game if town makes it to day 4.
It was most definitely noticed by me, and the only reason I didn't call her out on it was because she said there were personal things going on. I gave her the benefit of the doubt, but if it turns out that was a lie, she won't ever get that grace from me again.
To clarify, it's not a last minute vote change that upsets me. It's when the last minute vote is your first vote that round.
And EAP, bullshit you forgot to vote. You've said numerous times something to the effect of "We all know we're nerds and check this throughout the day."
And EAP, if he's lying and is Mafia, what are your theories as to who else is Mafia with him? Your defence can't simply be to laugh it off.
I'm willing to give what you say a shot if it makes sense.
my money is on jfg/dragon and carini. or maybe even you. i've stood by the fact that i believe dragon was possibly mafia the whole time. sfa spoke about him a lot and then was whacked. rummy spoke a lot about jfg and now she's whacked.
i've been mafia before and i've faked inspector before. he isn't even doing a good job of pretending. it's just too easy.
And EAP, if he's lying and is Mafia, what are your theories as to who else is Mafia with him? Your defence can't simply be to laugh it off.
I'm willing to give what you say a shot if it makes sense.
my money is on jfg/dragon and carini. or maybe even you. i've stood by the fact that i believe dragon was possibly mafia the whole time. sfa spoke about him a lot and then was whacked. rummy spoke a lot about jfg and now she's whacked.
i've been mafia before and i've faked inspector before. he isn't even doing a good job of pretending. it's just too easy.
Ok, let's say Mafia is JFG/Dragon/Carini (I know I'm not). At this point I'd still want to vote out Jaz to test Jfg's claim. If he turns out to be Mafia, the town still has time to correct since Dragon is already dead.
my money is on jfg/dragon and carini. or maybe even you. i've stood by the fact that i believe dragon was possibly mafia the whole time. sfa spoke about him a lot and then was whacked. rummy spoke a lot about jfg and now she's whacked.
i've been mafia before and i've faked inspector before. he isn't even doing a good job of pretending. it's just too easy.
Ok, let's say Mafia is JFG/Dragon/Carini (I know I'm not). At this point I'd still want to vote out Jaz to test Jfg's claim. If he turns out to be Mafia, the town still has time to correct since Dragon is already dead.
this is true. there is also a possibility that slack is our third. i've thought he was suspicious the whole game (hence my votes for him). if this is the case, then we're fucked. i'd rather get rid of someone i know for sure i lying.
Before you move on to some one else - and thank you for taking time to dissect things - why didn't you give eap just as much guff for late voting as you did me?
Several times you have been mad at a player just for putting in the last vote. Eap's was the most crucial made at or after the deadline after waiting all day, with no solid explanation and changed the landscape of the game.
I'm not trying to deflect from my bads, but I think what I asked you could pertain to the game if town makes it to day 4.
It was most definitely noticed by me, and the only reason I didn't call her out on it was because she said there were personal things going on. I gave her the benefit of the doubt, but if it turns out that was a lie, she won't ever get that grace from me again.
To clarify, it's not a last minute vote change that upsets me. It's when the last minute vote is your first vote that round.
And EAP, bullshit you forgot to vote. You've said numerous times something to the effect of "We all know we're nerds and check this throughout the day."
Personal things going on with eap was the reason? Ok, she said she went to work, hung out with a friend, and went to enrichment classes. Personal things; that's just normal life.
If that is why you have eap the pass when I'm helping EMTs lift up my mother a couple times during the game and learning how to best change her diapers - and I get the third degree. I was this close to quiting this game day 2 to be fair to everyone because I thought I couldn't do it. But I did.
Too little, too late scolding her now. You are still right up there for me with jaz and carini - two of you three with eap. But I'll be dead one way or the other day 4, if there is one.
Only two ways to get to day 4, if neither Tainted or dragon was mafia: vote out jaz, mafia whacks me. Lynch eap, and either jimmy or slack are whacked as known town. Day 5 it will be the survivor of jimmy/slack to choose between rothric carini. That would mean amafia of eap / jaz / carini or rothric.
If dragon or Taint were mafia (I don't think so), town will have a day 4, and can vote for either me or jaz today. If I am lynched, town won't be able to let eap prove I'm telling the truth. If jaz is mafia...town will have missed a chance but not dead as long as one of dragon or tainted were also mafia.
Going to leave it to others for an hour or so. I'm thinking the game might already be over.
It was most definitely noticed by me, and the only reason I didn't call her out on it was because she said there were personal things going on. I gave her the benefit of the doubt, but if it turns out that was a lie, she won't ever get that grace from me again.
To clarify, it's not a last minute vote change that upsets me. It's when the last minute vote is your first vote that round.
And EAP, bullshit you forgot to vote. You've said numerous times something to the effect of "We all know we're nerds and check this throughout the day."
Personal things going on with eap was the reason? Ok, she said she went to work, hung out with a friend, and went to enrichment classes. Personal things; that's just normal life.
If that is why you have eap the pass when I'm helping EMTs lift up my mother a couple times during the game and learning how to best change her diapers - and I get the third degree. I was this close to quiting this game day 2 to be fair to everyone because I thought I couldn't do it. But I did.
Too little, too late scolding her now. You are still right up there for me with jaz and carini - two of you three with eap. But I'll be dead one way or the other day 4, if there is one.
Only two ways to get to day 4, if neither Tainted or dragon was mafia: vote out jaz, mafia whacks me. Lynch eap, and either jimmy or slack are whacked as known town. Day 5 it will be the survivor of jimmy/slack to choose between rothric carini. That would mean amafia of eap / jaz / carini or rothric.
If dragon or Taint were mafia (I don't think so), town will have a day 4, and can vote for either me or jaz today. If I am lynched, town won't be able to let eap prove I'm telling the truth. If jaz is mafia...town will have missed a chance but not dead as long as one of dragon or tainted were also mafia.
Going to leave it to others for an hour or so. I'm thinking the game might already be over.
I don't understand why you're coming after me so hard, I'm pretty much agreeing with you at this point.
No, I don't consider going to FFF an excuse for EAP whatsoever. I'm talking about her post on 11/5 where she said something is off with her and she's had a rough few weeks personally.
I never came after you due to your mother, and I'm sorry that happened. But you seriously don't see your patttern of always waiting?
And if there is no Day 4, who's fault is that? Don't blame me for this mess.
Don't really have much to add here. If JFG is telling the truth, the game has probably already ended. I'm town so the town's survival would hinge on Tainted or Dragon being Mafia if I end up being voted out. I don't think Dragon was just because of the way he played, and Tainted most likely was town because him being Mafia would mean there are two left, and everyone alive now (save for EAP and Jimmy) voted to lynch him. That would mean his two Mafia buddies would be EAP and Jimmy, and I agree with you and JFG that they are almost certainly not Mafia together. So I think Taint was town.
I'm rather Carini'd at the moment so I apologize if I'm rambly or less than clear. The short of it is I think Dragon and Taint were town. Regardless, I think it's helpful to think this way to make sure we get to the next round. So that's my assumption. That being said, if that's true and JFG is telling the truth now, the game is already over and this is all a moot point. Which you would know, because it would mean that you'd be the third Mafia with EAP and Carini (or Jimmy, technically, but I think that's less likely). It wouldn't be the first time a guaranteed-to-win Mafia let the townies puzzle among themselves unnecessarily - I've done it before as Mafia in that situation. Also if this is the case, screw you.
But I'll assume you're a townie as well, because...well, I have to. Because that's the only scenario in which anything I say means anything (because if you're Mafia and he's telling the truth, the game is over, and if you're Mafia and so is he, you already know you'll keep your vote on me). This means the only scenario left in which the town moves on involves JFG as a Mafia or Dragon/Taint being Mafia. And JFG and I both think that they were town, so make what you want of that.
That speculation is just numbers-based and trying to think in terms of our current risk. As far as actual gameplay is concerned, the only thing that doesn't hold up for me with JFG is how EAP became lynch-proof before JFG chose to come out. That doesn't make sense to me at all. If you're an inspector heading towards a runoff with all Mafia still alive - meaning the game ends if you get voted out - you don't let the person you're 100% sure is Mafia slide through and go forward to a two-person runoff with someone you think could be town. This is a major flag to me. I also think that due to her gameplay, EAP is an easy target to paint as Mafia. I'm not saying that's what's happening here, but it crossed my mind - and is likely what's happening if JFG is indeed Mafia. Personally, I think she's Mafia regardless.
I don't know if this helped at all, but you asked for my thoughts, so there they are.
If both Jaz and JFG were town, and neither Dragon or Tainted were mafia, this game would be over right now. Potent would have to end the game. But he hasn't. Let's not forget that.
That means at least one of Dragon, tainted, Jaz, or JFG must be mafia.
I believe JFG. I genuinely had a feeling that inspector was still alive, so this jives with me. SFA did nothing to suggest he was inspector, and I stated that previously. Rummy has been all over the place and I think she'd be a bit more conservative if she was inspector.
Having said all that, I'm going to keep my vote on Jaz. I need to go to work but I will return to this thread to reevaluate who I think might be the other mafia given this new information.
Very disappointed we let EAP slip away this round...
I'm just going to throw this out there to Potent. If this game is mathematically over and you do not end this game immediately, leading us to waste our time by re-reading this thread, I will hunt you down. I'm also going to move for an amendment to the rules after this game is over, so that its explicitly clear that the referee MUST end the game at any point it becomes mathematically impossible for one side to win.
Not coming out before eap went out was probably my biggest mistake. I kept going back and forth. Slack was my only chance to get someone to move onto eap, and that was out after jimmy moved.
This is my biggest qualm with your claim. That's not true at all. I would have gladly moved onto EAP with you, I was absolutely suspicious of her. Even if you believe I'm Mafia (I'm not), you should still have come out at that point. Because now, if you are telling the truth and either Dragon or Tainted weren't Mafia, we're hosed.
It was most definitely not over when Jimmy moved off EAP. You coming out then would have brought people right back to her.
First, if JFG's not inspector, I'm surprised at his guessing skills.
I also agree that the game is probably already over, and this is all a moot point.
Beyond that I can't really do much better than Jaz has, so I'll leave it at that.
Do you believe Jfg's claim or not? Because as it stands, your vote is still on him.
And what do you mean by "First, if JFG's not inspector, I'm surprised at his guessing skills." ? If Jfg's not Inspector, that means he's Mafia. Why would you be surprised at his guessing skills if he's Mafia? He's in the know at that point. Or did you mean his guessing skills of killing the Inspector in either SFA or Rummy if he is Mafia?
Don't really have much to add here. If JFG is telling the truth, the game has probably already ended. I'm town so the town's survival would hinge on Tainted or Dragon being Mafia if I end up being voted out. I don't think Dragon was just because of the way he played, and Tainted most likely was town because him being Mafia would mean there are two left, and everyone alive now (save for EAP and Jimmy) voted to lynch him. That would mean his two Mafia buddies would be EAP and Jimmy, and I agree with you and JFG that they are almost certainly not Mafia together. So I think Taint was town.
I'm rather Carini'd at the moment so I apologize if I'm rambly or less than clear. The short of it is I think Dragon and Taint were town. Regardless, I think it's helpful to think this way to make sure we get to the next round. So that's my assumption. That being said, if that's true and JFG is telling the truth now, the game is already over and this is all a moot point. Which you would know, because it would mean that you'd be the third Mafia with EAP and Carini (or Jimmy, technically, but I think that's less likely). It wouldn't be the first time a guaranteed-to-win Mafia let the townies puzzle among themselves unnecessarily - I've done it before as Mafia in that situation. Also if this is the case, screw you.
But I'll assume you're a townie as well, because...well, I have to. Because that's the only scenario in which anything I say means anything (because if you're Mafia and he's telling the truth, the game is over, and if you're Mafia and so is he, you already know you'll keep your vote on me). This means the only scenario left in which the town moves on involves JFG as a Mafia or Dragon/Taint being Mafia. And JFG and I both think that they were town, so make what you want of that.
That speculation is just numbers-based and trying to think in terms of our current risk. As far as actual gameplay is concerned, the only thing that doesn't hold up for me with JFG is how EAP became lynch-proof before JFG chose to come out. That doesn't make sense to me at all. If you're an inspector heading towards a runoff with all Mafia still alive - meaning the game ends if you get voted out - you don't let the person you're 100% sure is Mafia slide through and go forward to a two-person runoff with someone you think could be town. This is a major flag to me. I also think that due to her gameplay, EAP is an easy target to paint as Mafia. I'm not saying that's what's happening here, but it crossed my mind - and is likely what's happening if JFG is indeed Mafia. Personally, I think she's Mafia regardless.
I don't know if this helped at all, but you asked for my thoughts, so there they are.
Definitely did help, thanks for it. I can assure you, I'm town, I'm not torturing you. I'm just trying to see if there's any way we can still win this.
These are the possible scenarios I see:
JFG is Inspector: 1. If both Dragon and Tainted were town, I have to hope that you (Jazmo) are Mafia. Otherwise we're done. Which would mean I need to leave my vote on you. Right now, I do believe you're town, so hoping this isn't the case. 2. One of Dragon or Tainted were Mafia, which means the town will live to see D4 no matter who we lynch. In this scenario I'd still need to leave my vote on you whether you're town or Mafia. If you happen to be Mafia, I got lucky. If you happen to be town, sorry, but I have to test Jfg's claim.
JFG is Mafia: 3. That means that both Dragon and Tainted were town. Jfg had an instrumental role voting both of them off. If Jfg is Mafia, that means his other 2 cohorts are still alive as well. Which means we have to vote off Jfg right now for the town to continue to D4.
If Jfg is Mafia, that means the Mafia is JFG and two of: Slack/Jimmy/Jazmo. I don't think there's any way Jfg is Mafia along with Dragon, EAP, Tainted, Carini, or myself.
So now it comes down to whether I believe Jfg or not. Even with the major fuck up of letting EAP slip through, I'm still inclined to believe him.
I'm just going to throw this out there to Potent. If this game is mathematically over and you do not end this game immediately, leading us to waste our time by re-reading this thread, I will hunt you down. I'm also going to move for an amendment to the rules after this game is over, so that its explicitly clear that the referee MUST end the game at any point it becomes mathematically impossible for one side to win.
#scarredforlife
This. I've spent way too much time rereading and thinking about this from different angles. If it's over, just end it. Just make sure you don't pull a Rummy and it too early, we could still have won that game!
I am troubled that carini12 hasn't checked in yet.
JFG is Inspector: 1. If both Dragon and Tainted were town, I have to hope that you (Jazmo) are Mafia. Otherwise we're done. Which would mean I need to leave my vote on you. Right now, I do believe you're town, so hoping this isn't the case. 2. One of Dragon or Tainted were Mafia, which means the town will live to see D4 no matter who we lynch. In this scenario I'd still need to leave my vote on you whether you're town or Mafia. If you happen to be Mafia, I got lucky. If you happen to be town, sorry, but I have to test Jfg's claim.
JFG is Mafia: 3. That means that both Dragon and Tainted were town. Jfg had an instrumental role voting both of them off. If Jfg is Mafia, that means his other 2 cohorts are still alive as well. Which means we have to vote off Jfg right now for the town to continue to D4, if Jazmo is town. 4. Jfg is Mafia along with Jaz, which means we could vote out either.
If Jfg is Mafia, that means the Mafia is JFG and two of: Slack/Jimmy/Jazmo. I don't think there's any way Jfg is Mafia along with Dragon, EAP, Tainted, Carini, or myself.
So the way I see it, 3 of those scenarios allow me to vote for Jazmo, only 1 forces me to vote for Jfg. At this point, leaving my vote on Jazmo and hoping the odds are ever in my favor.
