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I'm on my phone so it's hard to reread and post, but I agree with the consensus about Zig's post. It's also super interesting to me that JR is running great defense for Zig right now and just grabbed the closest person which happens to be me.
I am curious to hear Zig's explanation. In the meantime, my vote is locked.
Here's what we were looking at before Zig outed himself. I feel very safe in regards to Potent right now both because he voted for Zig and because in Zig's post he seemed to be referring to saving only himself, not himself and someone else. I feel like if Potent was Mafia with him he would have said something about moving votes onto me. And also because Potent was the one to bring up Zig's flub.
Then there's Zig's Final Four post, which now we can assume has no more than one Mafia in it. He wouldn't bring attention to both of his teammates I don't think, but it would make sense to name one person in case he had to use it for distancing later in the game. Those four were - LD, Monky, JR, and Bacon. We know LD was town. So I'm thinking either ONE or ZERO of Monkey/JR/Bacon is Mafia. As I posted previously, I think it's interesting that all three of the still living in that group were voting for me. Which brings me to:
The vote splits. We don't know how they split up their votes. It's possible that both Tainted and Krissy are Mafia and Zig's post was expressing apprehension about them moving their votes, but as stated, his apprehension was about them all voting the same way. So that doesn't necessarily mean that their votes would have to move. Regardless, after his posts they would have pretty much been forced to keep their vote on him. But I don't think that's the most likely scenario; they probably had their votes spread out more.
So was it [two votes on me, one on Zig], [two votes on Jaz/Potent and one on the other not-Zig], or [one vote per person]? I don't feel confident enough to lean towards any one of those scenarios right now. I do, however, feel confident that there is one Mafia out of Monky/JR/Bacon - but not more than one. Which would then leave one Mafia out of Tainted/Krissyjo/Thor/Carini (having ruled out Potent and myself [if you don't feel like I'm cleared that's fine, but from my perspective obviously I'm not going to include myself as a potential Mafia]).
I want to look over voting patterns first before placing my vote, but I wanted to leave this here for people to mull over.
Jaz, if you agree with me, why aren't you voting for one of Potent or Krissy?
I think Potent is town. Krissy is on my shortlist at this point, but as I had already stated, right now I'm looking at the trio of JR/Monky/Bacon. Agreeing with you doesn't change my original strategy.
Dr. Joe JR pretty much did the work for me. I wanted to see someone out of JR/Monky/Bacon go forward, and I had slightly more suspicion on JR than the other two. I can kinda sorta see what he said about Zig being in response to Krissy, but I also see what Krissy's saying about wanting to tie the Zig post to a townie ASAP. Potent's play seems erratic to me, but that's kinda par for the course for him, and some of the things his says do make sense to me. Really having a hard time knowing what to think about him.
To me monky and Jimmy's gameplay very much read as town. If monky was mafia I don't see why he would be drawing attention to himself in this way; it'd be much easier for him to just vote for someone. Jimmy's doing something he usually only does when town but I'm going to keep that to myself for the sake of future games.
I don't feel great about krissy right now, and tainted /carini/bacon are very hard to read.
Jaz had said many times that he's suspicious of Bacon, Monky and me. Maybe that has something to do with one or both of the others and the whack, but I was predicting he'd be whacked based on the fact that he was probably the person most widely accepted as town. If it was anyone but him I would have guessed that they were taking a stab at the inspector.
No secret that he's been on my list. With the Jaz whack, it solidifies my suspicions even more.
Yes - I realize I'm stacking. No, I don't care. Voting for who I think is most likely Mafia at this point.
I don't know about your strategy. Jaz doesn't point at me and your previous evidence didn't point at me. Maybe a whack of you would have pointed at me, especially since I pointed out that you were playing bitter and I was not. You and Jimmy are building quite a case against me. Is it far enough into the game that mafia feels it's safe to stack?
Fair enough. I've been town three times previously. Twice, I was under pressure because a whack was "probably" my doing and my voting record was "suspicious". Once, I was the night one whack. I've been mafia once. The whack didn't point at me and my voting record wasn't questioned, except by Billy, who was inspector. I just feel the whack reads in all the games I've played thus far have been weak. Run with what you have to run with, but I hope something noteworthy jumps out at one of us to point us at real mafia.
No secret that he's been on my list. With the Jaz whack, it solidifies my suspicions even more.
Yes - I realize I'm stacking. No, I don't care. Voting for who I think is most likely Mafia at this point.
I don't know about your strategy. Jaz doesn't point at me and your previous evidence didn't point at me. Maybe a whack of you would have pointed at me, especially since I pointed out that you were playing bitter and I was not. You and Jimmy are building quite a case against me. Is it far enough into the game that mafia feels it's safe to stack?
My strategy is to vote for the people I think are most likely mafia. That's it.
Actually, the fact that I haven't been whacked yet heightens my suspicions of you. Like you said, a whack of me would point to you easily. If you are an innocent townie, why hasn't the mafia whacked me to send the town on a wild goose chase?
I don't know about your strategy. Jaz doesn't point at me and your previous evidence didn't point at me. Maybe a whack of you would have pointed at me, especially since I pointed out that you were playing bitter and I was not. You and Jimmy are building quite a case against me. Is it far enough into the game that mafia feels it's safe to stack?
My strategy is to vote for the people I think are most likely mafia. That's it.
Actually, the fact that I haven't been whacked yet heightens my suspicions of you. Like you said, a whack of me would point to you easily. If you are an innocent townie, why hasn't the mafia whacked me to send the town on a wild goose chase?
Maybe mafia assumes that that would be so obviously me that no one would think I'd actually do it. Maybe mafia hasn't whacked you because mafia can't whack mafia. I don't know. What I do know for certain is that you hound me and got half the players behind you and that's working in favor of the mafia. If you're not mafia they're just laying back watching the two of us win this game for them.
I will explain more when my head stops throbbing but I wanted to get this in asap
Bacon > carini
As much as I want to jump up and down whenever someone comes out as inspector, I always hesitate. Faking inspector is always risky, though it's been done. Time to do a reread.
For now, because I want to give the benefit of the doubt to someone who claims inspector:
As I said I was given Carini's name day 1. I do not believe the train of thought that inspector should go after their name day 1, it rarely works and is a risky chance of getting whacked. Obviously had carini been placed in the run-off I would have likely switched to him but voting him straight off would have been too risky.
My original vote for Krissy was just a place holder until i had a better plan. Once we got to the run-off I switched to Zig because the possibility that Carini voted for him as a distancing move and would switch off if the votes stacked up, which did eventually happen. At that point my biggest suspicion was Zig but I played the vote swap game to force people like Jaz to speak up, gather more data, and draw mafia attention away from myself via via sheer self destruction. I was content with going into a 3 way run-off as long as zig was included, which he eventually, but didn't plan on voting him right away. When potent voted zig I was planning on trying to steer it to a two way run-off if I could, but then Zig's slip up happened and I was able to just sit back and let him be voted out. Quite a gift.
It also turned out to be quite a gift for figuring out the third member. From Zig's statement and the fact I knew Carini was guilty, mathematically i could assume with pretty decent certainty that either JR or Monky were mafia. I guessed JR in the night because he was the most aggressive player at trying to create a storyline based on Zig's slipup, a story line that didnt match up with the facts I already had. When I got his name back as innocent I considered coming out and getting carini killed and recommending Monky be the next lynch but there was still a risk I could be wrong and if the third mafia was hiding that well they might be able to survive and win. With Shaky Knees as the perfect excuse to go silent I figured I could divert all mafia attention in round 2 and confirm my monky suspicion. I probably would have tried to get someone else in the run-off other than the one confirmed innocent and someone I was almost certain was innocent because he voted Zig into the 3 way run-off, but music festival and seeing the girlfriend for the first time in 5 weeks, I was a wee bit distracted. By the time I checked in I didn't have much choice but to vote potent.
I reread twice in the airport yesterday and couldn't find one reason to guess someone better than my initial assumption that either JR or MOnky had to be mafia so I went with that.
As I said I was given Carini's name day 1. I do not believe the train of thought that inspector should go after their name day 1, it rarely works and is a risky chance of getting whacked. Obviously had carini been placed in the run-off I would have likely switched to him but voting him straight off would have been too risky.
My original vote for Krissy was just a place holder until i had a better plan. Once we got to the run-off I switched to Zig because the possibility that Carini voted for him as a distancing move and would switch off if the votes stacked up, which did eventually happen. At that point my biggest suspicion was Zig but I played the vote swap game to force people like Jaz to speak up, gather more data, and draw mafia attention away from myself via via sheer self destruction. I was content with going into a 3 way run-off as long as zig was included, which he eventually, but didn't plan on voting him right away. When potent voted zig I was planning on trying to steer it to a two way run-off if I could, but then Zig's slip up happened and I was able to just sit back and let him be voted out. Quite a gift.
It also turned out to be quite a gift for figuring out the third member. From Zig's statement and the fact I knew Carini was guilty, mathematically i could assume with pretty decent certainty that either JR or Monky were mafia. I guessed JR in the night because he was the most aggressive player at trying to create a storyline based on Zig's slipup, a story line that didnt match up with the facts I already had. When I got his name back as innocent I considered coming out and getting carini killed and recommending Monky be the next lynch but there was still a risk I could be wrong and if the third mafia was hiding that well they might be able to survive and win. With Shaky Knees as the perfect excuse to go silent I figured I could divert all mafia attention in round 2 and confirm my monky suspicion. I probably would have tried to get someone else in the run-off other than the one confirmed innocent and someone I was almost certain was innocent because he voted Zig into the 3 way run-off, but music festival and seeing the girlfriend for the first time in 5 weeks, I was a wee bit distracted. By the time I checked in I didn't have much choice but to vote potent.
I reread twice in the airport yesterday and couldn't find one reason to guess someone better than my initial assumption that either JR or MOnky had to be mafia so I went with that.
The rest is up to you guys.
Why come out so early in the round? Why not try to get Monky into a runoff to elicit more info?
As I said I was given Carini's name day 1. I do not believe the train of thought that inspector should go after their name day 1, it rarely works and is a risky chance of getting whacked. Obviously had carini been placed in the run-off I would have likely switched to him but voting him straight off would have been too risky.
My original vote for Krissy was just a place holder until i had a better plan. Once we got to the run-off I switched to Zig because the possibility that Carini voted for him as a distancing move and would switch off if the votes stacked up, which did eventually happen. At that point my biggest suspicion was Zig but I played the vote swap game to force people like Jaz to speak up, gather more data, and draw mafia attention away from myself via via sheer self destruction. I was content with going into a 3 way run-off as long as zig was included, which he eventually, but didn't plan on voting him right away. When potent voted zig I was planning on trying to steer it to a two way run-off if I could, but then Zig's slip up happened and I was able to just sit back and let him be voted out. Quite a gift.
It also turned out to be quite a gift for figuring out the third member. From Zig's statement and the fact I knew Carini was guilty, mathematically i could assume with pretty decent certainty that either JR or Monky were mafia. I guessed JR in the night because he was the most aggressive player at trying to create a storyline based on Zig's slipup, a story line that didnt match up with the facts I already had. When I got his name back as innocent I considered coming out and getting carini killed and recommending Monky be the next lynch but there was still a risk I could be wrong and if the third mafia was hiding that well they might be able to survive and win. With Shaky Knees as the perfect excuse to go silent I figured I could divert all mafia attention in round 2 and confirm my monky suspicion. I probably would have tried to get someone else in the run-off other than the one confirmed innocent and someone I was almost certain was innocent because he voted Zig into the 3 way run-off, but music festival and seeing the girlfriend for the first time in 5 weeks, I was a wee bit distracted. By the time I checked in I didn't have much choice but to vote potent.
I reread twice in the airport yesterday and couldn't find one reason to guess someone better than my initial assumption that either JR or MOnky had to be mafia so I went with that.
The rest is up to you guys.
Why come out so early in the round? Why not try to get Monky into a runoff to elicit more info?
