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This would have probably been a lost game. Thank you for not being dead Bacon.
JR > Monky
It makes sense that he's still alive. Seems mafia was banking on LD being the whack and went with eminent misdirection in the Jaz whack. It pointed most directly at JR and Bacon. I guess that's what happens to mafia when they go for misdirection whacks
Post by monkybunney on May 17, 2016 18:50:19 GMT -5
At this point seems like everyone is going to go with Bacon. Consider the numbers we have. 9 town (including inspector) 3 mafia. Day 1 we get 1 mafia and loose 1 town, LD. Day 2 we have 8 town left including inspector and 2 mafia. I'm very sure at this point we loose two town on day 2. I said before I think Bacon voting in line with me was an attempt to get me to move my vote yet again because I was so amendment about him being mafia. So we loose 2 town on day 2. Town 6 & mafia 2. I'm town and of course I'm going to say I'm town at this point. I've actually tried to avoid doing that because people who make it a point of claiming they're town in multiple posts seem the most suspicious to me. Day 3 lets say we lynch me and I happen to be town and the mafia takes out another town in the night. Were down to 4 town and 2 mafia. Guess what happens if you Lynch another town on day 4 based on Bacon's claim. Your down to 2 mafia and 2 town. Perfect odds for mafia to win it despite Zig outing himself. I think Bacon claiming to be inspector is a great strategy to mislead the town. Where has my voting been suspect or my posts suggested I'm mafia. Granted I stayed on Bacon on day tw2 and inevitably dragged that out longer than needed but THAT'S BECAUSE I sincerely believe him to be mafia. He IS NOT inspector. It makes no sense to me unless I view it as a mafia strategy to thin the heard. Bacon will probably be lynched on day 5 after the town finishes lynching the 2 of us he's targeting, but then there will only be 3 town vs. 1 mafai. Those are not the worst odds for the last surviving mafia. Especially after their Zig disaster on day 1.
I'll address Bacon's explanation shortly I just wanted to get this out there. Look at the numbers and what will happen to the remaining town if you believe him and he's lying.
At this point seems like everyone is going to go with Bacon. Consider the numbers we have. 9 town (including inspector) 3 mafia. Day 1 we get 1 mafia and loose 1 town, LD. Day 2 we have 8 town left including inspector and 2 mafia. I'm very sure at this point we loose two town on day 2. I said before I think Bacon voting in line with me was an attempt to get me to move my vote yet again because I was so amendment about him being mafia. So we loose 2 town on day 2. Town 6 & mafia 2. I'm town and of course I'm going to say I'm town at this point. I've actually tried to avoid doing that because people who make it a point of claiming they're town in multiple posts seem the most suspicious to me. Day 3 lets say we lynch me and I happen to be town and the mafia takes out another town in the night. Were down to 4 town and 2 mafia. Guess what happens if you Lynch another town on day 4 based on Bacon's claim. Your down to 2 mafia and 2 town. Perfect odds for mafia to win it despite Zig outing himself. I think Bacon claiming to be inspector is a great strategy to mislead the town. Where has my voting been suspect or my posts suggested I'm mafia. Granted I stayed on Bacon on day tw2 and inevitably dragged that out longer than needed but THAT'S BECAUSE I sincerely believe him to be mafia. He IS NOT inspector. It makes no sense to me unless I view it as a mafia strategy to thin the heard. Bacon will probably be lynched on day 5 after the town finishes lynching the 2 of us he's targeting, but then there will only be 2 town vs. 1 mafai. Those are not the worst odds for the last surviving mafia. Especially after their Zig disaster on day 1.
I'll address Bacon's explanation shortly I just wanted to get this out there. Look at the numbers and what will happen to the remaining town if you believe him and he's lying.
I just realized i fucked up my math. That what's happens when you post to quickly without proof reading. I corrected it above.
As I said I was given Carini's name day 1. I do not believe the train of thought that inspector should go after their name day 1, it rarely works and is a risky chance of getting whacked. Obviously had carini been placed in the run-off I would have likely switched to him but voting him straight off would have been too risky.
This all makes sense to me, so far you're believable.
My original vote for Krissy was just a place holder until i had a better plan. Once we got to the run-off I switched to Zig because the possibility that Carini voted for him as a distancing move and would switch off if the votes stacked up, which did eventually happen.
My original vote for Krissy was just a place holder until i had a better plan. Once we got to the run-off I switched to Zig because the possibility that Carini voted for him as a distancing move and would switch off if the votes stacked up, which did eventually happen. Only your account of what happened is flawed. Please note the time stamp that you moved back on to Krissy right after this post.
At that point my biggest suspicion was Zig but I played the vote swap game to force people like Jaz to speak up, gather more data, and draw mafia attention away from myself via via sheer self destruction. I was content with going into a 3 way run-off as long as zig was included, which he eventually, but didn't plan on voting him right away. When potent voted zig I was planning on trying to steer it to a two way run-off if I could, but then Zig's slip up happened and I was able to just sit back and let him be voted out. Quite a gift.
?!?!?!? Really? But you are voting for Krissy at this point.
It also turned out to be quite a gift for figuring out the third member. From Zig's statement and the fact I knew Carini was guilty, mathematically i could assume with pretty decent certainty that either JR or Monky were mafia.
I challenge you to show you work. Mathematically? Please enlighten us.
I guessed JR in the night because he was the most aggressive player at trying to create a storyline based on Zig's slipup, a story line that didnt match up with the facts I already had. When I got his name back as innocent I considered coming out and getting carini killed and recommending Monky be the next lynch but there was still a risk I could be wrong and if the third mafia was hiding that well they might be able to survive and win. With Shaky Knees as the perfect excuse to go silent I figured I could divert all mafia attention in round 2 and confirm my monky suspicion. I probably would have tried to get someone else in the run-off other than the one confirmed innocent and someone I was almost certain was innocent because he voted Zig into the 3 way run-off, but music festival and seeing the girlfriend for the first time in 5 weeks, I was a wee bit distracted. By the time I checked in I didn't have much choice but to vote potent.
This is so convenient! I don't think either Potent or JR was mafia (though I was very suspicious of Potent, JR most of the suspicioun on him was based on his Krissy/Zig connection that he later backed down from). I think the 3rd mafia is deep cover right now and flying mostly under the radar. You are distracting the town from that person's identity in order to have better odds on day 6 when it will come to a head. You will get lynched once the town finds themselves in day 5 and the game hasn't ended. But by then it's 2 town vs 1 mafia. Not bad odds.
I reread twice in the airport yesterday and couldn't find one reason to guess someone better than my initial assumption that either JR or MOnky had to be mafia so I went with that.
The rest is up to you guys.
I think you're a liar and the rest as you said is up to the town.
As I said I was given Carini's name day 1. I do not believe the train of thought that inspector should go after their name day 1, it rarely works and is a risky chance of getting whacked. Obviously had carini been placed in the run-off I would have likely switched to him but voting him straight off would have been too risky.
This all makes sense to me, so far you're believable.
My original vote for Krissy was just a place holder until i had a better plan. Once we got to the run-off I switched to Zig because the possibility that Carini voted for him as a distancing move and would switch off if the votes stacked up, which did eventually happen.
My original vote for Krissy was just a place holder until i had a better plan. Once we got to the run-off I switched to Zig because the possibility that Carini voted for him as a distancing move and would switch off if the votes stacked up, which did eventually happen.Potent) Jaz - 2 (Monky, JR)
Only your account of what happened is flawed. Please note the time stamp that you moved back on to Krissy right after this post.
At that point my biggest suspicion was Zig but I played the vote swap game to force people like Jaz to speak up, gather more data, and draw mafia attention away from myself via via sheer self destruction. I was content with going into a 3 way run-off as long as zig was included, which he eventually, but didn't plan on voting him right away. When potent voted zig I was planning on trying to steer it to a two way run-off if I could, but then Zig's slip up happened and I was able to just sit back and let him be voted out. Quite a gift.
?!?!?!? Really? But you are voting for Krissy at this point.
It also turned out to be quite a gift for figuring out the third member. From Zig's statement and the fact I knew Carini was guilty, mathematically i could assume with pretty decent certainty that either JR or Monky were mafia.
I challenge you to show you work. Mathematically? Please enlighten us.
I guessed JR in the night because he was the most aggressive player at trying to create a storyline based on Zig's slipup, a story line that didnt match up with the facts I already had. When I got his name back as innocent I considered coming out and getting carini killed and recommending Monky be the next lynch but there was still a risk I could be wrong and if the third mafia was hiding that well they might be able to survive and win. With Shaky Knees as the perfect excuse to go silent I figured I could divert all mafia attention in round 2 and confirm my monky suspicion. I probably would have tried to get someone else in the run-off other than the one confirmed innocent and someone I was almost certain was innocent because he voted Zig into the 3 way run-off, but music festival and seeing the girlfriend for the first time in 5 weeks, I was a wee bit distracted. By the time I checked in I didn't have much choice but to vote potent.
This is so convenient! I don't think either Potent or JR was mafia (though I was very suspicious of Potent, JR most of the suspicioun on him was based on his Krissy/Zig connection that he later backed down from). I think the 3rd mafia is deep cover right now and flying mostly under the radar. You are distracting the town from that person's identity in order to have better odds on day 6 when it will come to a head. You will get lynched once the town finds themselves in day 5 and the game hasn't ended. But by then it's 2 town vs 1 mafia. Not bad odds.
I reread twice in the airport yesterday and couldn't find one reason to guess someone better than my initial assumption that either JR or MOnky had to be mafia so I went with that.
The rest is up to you guys.
I think you're a liar and the rest as you said is up to the town.
Saturday night had rolled around, and although nearly everyone had accepted the fact that Radiohead was not going to happen, rumors of a sunrise Thom Yorke Kalliope set just wouldn't die.
Since the remaining Panel had RLARS access, they were able to climb atop the mythical beast known simply as Kalliope.
They felt all 70,000 watts pulsating below them.
The bass was rumbling. The lazers were dazzling. The pyrotechnics were mesmerizing.
If you stare long enough into the flames, you can almost see...
*blood curdling scream*
The pyrotechnic tower somehow misfired, someone's badly burned. JIMMY/THOR IS DEAD!
I was almost expecting the whack to be Krissy, which may have led to me needing to defend myself as the supposed accomplice of Bacon. So my first thought was relief. But then I thought about the whackage of Jimmy, who is the one who gave a little credence to Monky's story. Could that mean that the one person who would defend Carini is dead? No, Carini has done little to defend himself, so he either doesn't care or sees the writing on the wall. Of course, if he didn't care at all he would have whacked Bacon. Too much thinking, not enough sleep. I have no good reason to not believe Bacon, despite Monky's applaudable effort.
Holding my vote til I hear from carini12 regarding Bacon's accusation.
About 24 hours ago he hopped in and voted for Bacon. He didn't indicate that he was going to say anything else about it.
True, but at this point I see this round being either carini or bacon, for obvious reasons. If carini is town and bacon is faking inspector (which I doubt at this point, honestly), then carini needs to speak up and plead his case. Silence does nothing but solidify my suspicions.
Another thought - IF Bacon is faking inspector, no one has challenged him and claimed to be the real inspector. It's a ballsy move without knowing with 100% certainty that the mafia actually got the inspector during one of the nights. That means mafia have to be pretty damn confident they whacked the inspector already in order to reasonably pull off bacon faking it. Since Jimmy was alive when bacon made the claim, IF bacon is making a false claim, the mafia would have to have thought they got the inspector with either LD or Jaz.
Personally, I'm still leaning towards Bacon being the real inspector, but it's worth going back to refresh myself on the train of thought that LD or Jaz were.
The fact that bacon didn't get whacked after coming out as inspector also makes me think the Jimmy whack is a last ditch effort to save the final mafia member by putting doubt into the town about bacon's validity.
The fact that bacon didn't get whacked after coming out as inspector also makes me think the Jimmy whack is a last ditch effort to save the final mafia member by putting doubt into the town about bacon's validity.
That's why I thought a whack on you would put suspicion on Bacon and me (given our colorful history in this game.)
I think given the fact that Monky made an effort to save them, Carini's silence is just an indication that he doesn't think it's worth fighting that fight again.
