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Based purely on odds, I think it's reasonable to speculate that we probably have one Mafia in the current runoff. I have nothing to base this on other than thinking that a 45% chance is pretty good. So then I started looking at the people not in the runoff:
SFA Jaz Taint Thor LD Carini
Knowing how interested we've been recently in looking at D1R1 vote order, I found it very interesting that the middle group of voters contains no one in the runoff. Our runoff is voters #2 and #3, and then the bottom 3 voters.
I know I'm not Mafia, so this makes me want to look extra hard at Taint/Thor/LD/Carini (with SFA being a wildcard as usual). I know this post isn't very helpful (I'm basically taking everyone in the game who isn't me and saying "There are Mafia here!", which doesn't get us very far), but it helps me to break the game up into groups of people and try to analyze things that way. Overall, I just think the runoff selection is interesting.
Based purely on odds, I think it's reasonable to speculate that we probably have one Mafia in the current runoff. I have nothing to base this on other than thinking that a 45% chance is pretty good. So then I started looking at the people not in the runoff:
SFA Jaz Taint Thor LD Carini
Knowing how interested we've been recently in looking at D1R1 vote order, I found it very interesting that the middle group of voters contains no one in the runoff. Our runoff is voters #2 and #3, and then the bottom 3 voters.
I know I'm not Mafia, so this makes me want to look extra hard at Taint/Thor/LD/Carini (with SFA being a wildcard as usual). I know this post isn't very helpful (I'm basically taking everyone in the game who isn't me and saying "There are Mafia here!", which doesn't get us very far), but it helps me to break the game up into groups of people and try to analyze things that way. Overall, I just think the runoff selection is interesting.
If we don't have one Mafia out of these five, then we suck at this game.
I'm willing to entertain your theory. There's a few people that been quiet so far and would like to hear from them. Granted it's Day 1, but we can't be completely blank on thoughts. At least not when people start moving around.
Before we put too much faith in mathematics, I'd like to gently remind everyone that we accidentally killed the inspector last game partially due to faith in mathematics. That being said, this game started slower, so I won't go to war over how people feel about D1R1 vote patterns this time.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Well I'm presuming we are going to get some movement now. So I'm mostly just interested in seeing what other people do to adjust votes now (as we all are, I'm sure).
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Perhaps there is something in the late vote stacks, that pushed people into the runoff. Monky putting Zig in the runoff, after Zig puts two on Mike D, and Mike D voted Monky. Something seems off here, but I can't quite think of what.
If I'm going to be in the runoff, I personally would like to see at least Mike D included.
If you give me a good reason why, I'll switch my vote to him. But I'm not inclined to just because he's Mike D. Since you're a new player, you may not be aware, but Mike D, along with SFA, are two of the best in the business. I'm reluctant to vote them out early in any game, even with the double edged sword of them being extra dangerous if they are mafia.
To be frank, I don't have a great reason to vote for one person over anyone else right now. I don't support a straight vote off, but I want to keep my vote on Monky. Of all the players in the runoff, I often find his posts to be the least helpful. That's really the only basis I've got for a vote at this juncture.
If no one else is willing to move their vote, I'll be forced to move off Monky to create a 2 person runoff. But I want to at least hear from people why someone else should be in the runoff.
If I'm going to be in the runoff, I personally would like to see at least Mike D included.
If you give me a good reason why, I'll switch my vote to him. But I'm not inclined to just because he's Mike D. Since you're a new player, you may not be aware, but Mike D, along with SFA, are two of the best in the business. I'm reluctant to vote them out early in any game, even with the double edged sword of them being extra dangerous if they are mafia.
I went back and looked and Mike D hasn't played since Mafia 73 ( September 2014) so even if he is a "veteran" he hasn't played in almost 2 years. Plus he was a "last 4" voter and everyone knows how I feel there. And Mike D has 1 post so far. I know it's still early, however, IMO players that are quiet are either Mafia trying to stay hidden or townies that aren't helpful to the game.
To be frank, I don't have a great reason to vote for one person over anyone else right now. I don't support a straight vote off, but I want to keep my vote on Monky. Of all the players in the runoff, I often find his posts to be the least helpful. That's really the only basis I've got for a vote at this juncture.
If no one else is willing to move their vote, I'll be forced to move off Monky to create a 2 person runoff. But I want to at least hear from people why someone else should be in the runoff.
i would agree with your assessment of Monky. He is an extremely quiet player and in the last 2 games has basically stayed quiet and as Mafia both those games, was able to essentially slide by with very little scrutiny.
If you give me a good reason why, I'll switch my vote to him. But I'm not inclined to just because he's Mike D. Since you're a new player, you may not be aware, but Mike D, along with SFA, are two of the best in the business. I'm reluctant to vote them out early in any game, even with the double edged sword of them being extra dangerous if they are mafia.
I went back and looked and Mike D hasn't played since Mafia 73 ( September 2014) so even if he is a "veteran" he hasn't played in almost 2 years. Plus he was a "last 4" voter and everyone knows how I feel there. And Mike D has 1 post so far. I know it's still early, however, IMO players that are quiet are either Mafia trying to stay hidden or townies that aren't helpful to the game.
FWIW Mike D is always incredibly quiet early on regardless of role. I think he does it so he can mask himself when he is actually mafia, because I think he prefers being mafia.
Nonetheless, there is some merit to forcing a player like that to be more talkative early on.
My point is, I think he's good at this game regardless if he hasn't played in 2 years. And my policy has always been to give him and SFA some deference.
There are 24 hours before the round ends. If we want to get some of the quieter people into a runoff, it might be a good idea to start shuffling some votes around. My vote is already on the only person with three votes.
ZIG - Always likes to stir the pot, most vocal about theories on who might be Mafia, completely screwed me over last game.
Mike D - Back from exile, hasn't really done anything yet though. SFA already voting for him is interesting, but if he and Zig were Mafia together they wouldn't be stacking on him. That voting circle at the end of R1D1 is odd, and he is in it though.
Rummy - The only strike I see against her is that people don't like her over what happened in M88.
Monky - Never been one to really talk, especially on Day 1. Can he be Mafia three games in a row?
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Jun 19, 2016 11:36:07 GMT -5
Zig is the least suspicious to me at the moment. That means little in the long term but I tend to always point out who has been hanging out on a limb by themselves for awhile. At this point we've had one vote in 50 hours. With 5 people in the runoff, I think it's telling that things are this quite and nobody has made a move to even up the runoff. I think we do have at least one mafia in this runoff and odds are they are hanging back trying to slip by without drawing attention to themselves, possibly hoping they can squeak out of a runoff with some luck.
The other possibility is he's mafia and his buddies are relaying on a townie to even things up for a runoff. The overall quiteness makes me think that's less likely here but who knows.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Jun 19, 2016 11:43:17 GMT -5
quietness*
Having said that, there is a benefit to having Zig in the runoff. All his votes are from other runoff people. At least we will be forcing more votes that can't hide behind "self-preservation." That should be helpful later.
Having said that, there is a benefit to having Zig in the runoff. All his votes are from other runoff people. At least we will be forcing more votes that can't hide behind "self-preservation." That should be helpful later.
Is there a specific reason you want to keep your vote on Mike D over Rimmy, Monky, or JR? Even if you have no basis to vote affirmatively for either of those 3, wouldn't it be better to keep a potentially good townie in the game?
Having said that, there is a benefit to having Zig in the runoff. All his votes are from other runoff people. At least we will be forcing more votes that can't hide behind "self-preservation." That should be helpful later.
Is there a specific reason you want to keep your vote on Mike D over Rimmy, Monky, or JR? Even if you have no basis to vote affirmatively for either of those 3, wouldn't it be better to keep a potentially good townie in the game?
No. I'm willing to change my vote. One reason I voted for Mike is because I figured past experience would help me decide if I needed to change or not. The game has been a little quite, so I'm not really going off much at the moment. On the flip side, one reason I'm staying is I'm voting along with someone that has a key factor pointing to them possibly being innocent.
I'm not sure on JR. I found Rummy taking so long to vote a little out of character for her but it was a Friday night. Monky making it a 5 person runoff was also a little bizzarr but I'm not positive there was a mafia angle... unless we had two mafia already in the runoff.
I do weight in if I think a player will help the town down the line but I try not to have that be the only reason.
Having said that, there is a benefit to having Zig in the runoff. All his votes are from other runoff people. At least we will be forcing more votes that can't hide behind "self-preservation." That should be helpful later.
Is there a specific reason you want to keep your vote on Mike D over Rimmy, Monky, or JR? Even if you have no basis to vote affirmatively for either of those 3, wouldn't it be better to keep a potentially good townie in the game?
