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Voting for Rummy for the time being. Not much to go on, but I am a little leery of her vote for SFA after he voted for me to start the game. I don't know if recip votes early on are still used as much as they were, but I am cautious of that situation.
Also, what is this talk about the "last four"? Are yall just talking about the last votes/voters in the first round usually being mafia?
^^I find it a little sketchy that I voted for Rummy yesterday afternoon to create the runoff and provided my reasonings when asked and you said nothing at that time about my vote. Now after deadline closed and Monky didn't make the runoff you blame me??? That's absurd to me. There were plenty of other players that could have switched to Monky had you advocated for it (JR already said this morning he was open to moving his vote).
I laid in bed last night thinking I'd put Monky in the runoff first thing in the morning, after I confirmed how many votes people had. I feel he's more appropriate than you there at the moment, given your inquisitive nature and his quiet nature. If you're mafia, you'll hopefully make a noticeable mistake at some point, but Monky will creep through the whole game. Unfortunately, he was down to 1 vote when I got up.
I gotta say, it's really not fair to say Monky slipped out of the runoff when I was advocating for him to be in it and you easily could have switched your vote from Rummy to Monky.
Then why did you vote for JR?
JR was the only option that Thor had to push another person up to 3 votes and into the runoff...
Voting for Rummy for the time being. Not much to go on, but I am a little leery of her vote for SFA after he voted for me to start the game. I don't know if recip votes early on are still used as much as they were, but I am cautious of that situation.
Also, what is this talk about the "last four"? Are yall just talking about the last votes/voters in the first round usually being mafia?
Yes, if you want background on my "last 4" theory, I put together some data in the last 2 Mafia games, and it was discussed at length.
Basically, on Day 1, Mafia members tend to more frequently place their initial vote among the "last 4" voters. Based on the data I've pulled, I believe it's at a statistically large enough improvement over just "randomly" selecting the runoff like we basically do now
JR was the only option that Thor had to push another person up to 3 votes and into the runoff...
True. However, if he wanted to vote Monky he had time. His vote was roughly 10 hours before the deadline. He could of tried to vote Monky and got a third to join him later. And if no, then push JR to 3 votes in the morning.
JR was the only option that Thor had to push another person up to 3 votes and into the runoff...
True. However, if he wanted to vote Monky he had time. His vote was roughly 10 hours before the deadline. He could of tried to vote Monky and got a third to join him later. And if no, then push JR to 3 votes in the morning.
Thor's vote was already on Monky but Monky still only had 2 votes. Someone else needed to move to Monky. My assumption is Thor saw last night before going to bed that there wasn't any activity in the thread so he abandoned his hope for Monky getting a another vote, and switched to JR to ensure a 3-person runoff...
Based purely on odds, I think it's reasonable to speculate that we probably have one Mafia in the current runoff. I have nothing to base this on other than thinking that a 45% chance is pretty good. So then I started looking at the people not in the runoff:
SFA Jaz Taint Thor LD Carini
Knowing how interested we've been recently in looking at D1R1 vote order, I found it very interesting that the middle group of voters contains no one in the runoff. Our runoff is voters #2 and #3, and then the bottom 3 voters.
I know I'm not Mafia, so this makes me want to look extra hard at Taint/Thor/LD/Carini (with SFA being a wildcard as usual). I know this post isn't very helpful (I'm basically taking everyone in the game who isn't me and saying "There are Mafia here!", which doesn't get us very far), but it helps me to break the game up into groups of people and try to analyze things that way. Overall, I just think the runoff selection is interesting.
Based on this, and the votes currently on JR, I'm leaning towards JR being town, with one of Thor/LD/Carini being Mafia. If Rummy is Mafia, it would also explain why she would place her vote on Zig (to avoid stacking). Conversely, Mike D could be Mafia and has voted for Rummy for the same reason. Either way, I think either Rummy or Zig should be voted off.
I think out of the three we have, JR and Rummy are the most likely to be mafia. Considering that Zig added me as a 4th to the first runoff, then Monky added Zig as a 5th, the only reason Monky would add someone is if there was already 1 or 2 mafia and the expanded runoff would add more chances to get the mafia through the round. If that was the case, he wouldn't want to add another. Granted this is from somewhat of a Monky being mafia perspective and I have no real idea if that is the case, but from the games I have played a 5 person runoff is a bit much.
About to get in the car and drive to the mountains - once I get there, I can use my computer and actually read through the discussion more conscientiously and then post in response.
Before I get in the car, I'll just say - I'm really not sure why so many people are listing me as seeming the most/one of the most suspicious as of now. Yes I' haven't been posting as incessantly as I used to in games past. That's a purposeful thing. Funny though that people used to complain about said overposting from me, but now this more stand-back-and-wait approach has garnered me a good deal of votes and suspicion. Which is disappointing.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
About to get in the car and drive to the mountains - once I get there, I can use my computer and actually read through the discussion more conscientiously and then post in response.
Before I get in the car, I'll just say - I'm really not sure why so many people are listing me as seeming the most/one of the most suspicious as of now. Yes I' haven't been posting as incessantly as I used to in games past. That's a purposeful thing. Funny though that people used to complain about said overposting from me, but now this more stand-back-and-wait approach has garnered me a good deal of votes and suspicion. Which is disappointing.
Welcome to Mafia.
Seriously though, now would be a good time to put on the "not taking things personally" hat. It's the first round, random people will be thrown into a runoff. The reasons will be bullshit due to lack of info at this point. This time it's you - along with other people who are in the runoff with you. It's not personal, and not worth being disappointed over.
Based purely on odds, I think it's reasonable to speculate that we probably have one Mafia in the current runoff. I have nothing to base this on other than thinking that a 45% chance is pretty good. So then I started looking at the people not in the runoff:
SFA Jaz Taint Thor LD Carini
Knowing how interested we've been recently in looking at D1R1 vote order, I found it very interesting that the middle group of voters contains no one in the runoff. Our runoff is voters #2 and #3, and then the bottom 3 voters.
I know I'm not Mafia, so this makes me want to look extra hard at Taint/Thor/LD/Carini (with SFA being a wildcard as usual). I know this post isn't very helpful (I'm basically taking everyone in the game who isn't me and saying "There are Mafia here!", which doesn't get us very far), but it helps me to break the game up into groups of people and try to analyze things that way. Overall, I just think the runoff selection is interesting.
Based on this, and the votes currently on JR, I'm leaning towards JR being town, with one of Thor/LD/Carini being Mafia. If Rummy is Mafia, it would also explain why she would place her vote on Zig (to avoid stacking). Conversely, Mike D could be Mafia and has voted for Rummy for the same reason. Either way, I think either Rummy or Zig should be voted off.
Two parts of your theory I don't get.
First, why does voting in the "middle" matter? Besides the fact that most people voted within the first couple hours of game start anyway, why should someone who logged in 2 hours after the first 2 votes be labeled as suspicious? It's not like the last 4 theory where a mafia would actually gain advantage by waiting till the end to see what others do first.
Second, even assuming your specious middle theory is true, why are you leaving out SFA and Tainted from your suspect list? I don't see how I'm any more worthy of suspicion than they are.
Based on this, and the votes currently on JR, I'm leaning towards JR being town, with one of Thor/LD/Carini being Mafia. If Rummy is Mafia, it would also explain why she would place her vote on Zig (to avoid stacking). Conversely, Mike D could be Mafia and has voted for Rummy for the same reason. Either way, I think either Rummy or Zig should be voted off.
Two parts of your theory I don't get.
First, why does voting in the "middle" matter? Besides the fact that most people voted within the first couple hours of game start anyway, why should someone who logged in 2 hours after the first 2 votes be labeled as suspicious? It's not like the last 4 theory where a mafia would actually gain advantage by waiting till the end to see what others do first.
Second, even assuming your specious middle theory is true, why are you leaving out SFA and Tainted from your suspect list? I don't see how I'm any more worthy of suspicion than they are.
Oh, it's incredibly specious. My reasoning is that with an initial 5-person runoff, it's reasonable to assume we probably got one Mafia in that group. As far as voting order goes, we get voters #2, 3, 9, 10, and 11. If the Mafia spread their voting order at all (again, admittedly just an assumption based on nothing of real substance), then I think there's probably at least one out of voters #4, 5, 6, 7, 8 - excluding myself, this leaves Taint, Carini, yourself, and LD, with SFA hanging on outside of my assumptions since he was the first voter. To put it simply, I just find it very unlikely that there would be NO mafia in a string of five consecutive first-round voters who didn't get put into a runoff. If this were the case, it would mean that either A) all three mafia were in the initial runoff, or B) the mafia consists of 2 people in the runoff + SFA. While these are certainly possibilities, I feel like the odds of either of those being the case is lower than a Mafia being in the group that I mention.
All I'm really doing is dividing up the game into groups. If there were two mafia in the initial runoff, then there's one out of the group that I just mentioned (and vice versa, unless we did really well and got three mafia in the initial group or didn't get any mafia in the initial group). Grouping it this way kinda just makes sense to me and makes it easier for me to visualize the game.
As far why I've excluded Taint and SFA in my last post: if the Mafia are spreading their votes out, there's probably one Mafia out of LD/Carini/Thor, and that fits in line with my previous assumptions. I'm not saying that Taint/SFA aren't Mafia, just that they're not where my focus is at this particular point in the game.
To expand on my last paragraph - you're not by yourself more suspicious than any of them, but if I'm right about 1 out of SFA/Tainted/LD/Carini/Thor being Mafia, then each of you has a 20% chance of being Mafia based on pure odds. Group any three of you together, and there's a 60% chance there's a Mafia in that group. And since you, LD, and Carini have made a group of yourselves by all voting for JR, that's what I'm looking at - especially since Mafia tend to spread their votes out. Makes me think there's a Mafia among you three.
This is all totally based on assumptions that might not pan out, but it's where my thinking's at at the moment, given that we have so little to go on.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Jun 20, 2016 16:24:58 GMT -5
Ugggg. This sucks. I want to vote for JR as I feel he's getting the least attention out of the three but we'd likely get better info out of a Zig/Rummy runoff. Just settling in. Going to read back over this.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Jun 20, 2016 17:49:56 GMT -5
SFA >>> Zig
I still hold that the flow of the game points to Zig being the least suspicious but if we are going to have another runoff this one has a lot more potential than essentially letting Monky decide. That's especially true early on when we have so little to go off of.
About to get in the car and drive to the mountains - once I get there, I can use my computer and actually read through the discussion more conscientiously and then post in response.
Before I get in the car, I'll just say - I'm really not sure why so many people are listing me as seeming the most/one of the most suspicious as of now. Yes I' haven't been posting as incessantly as I used to in games past. That's a purposeful thing. Funny though that people used to complain about said overposting from me, but now this more stand-back-and-wait approach has garnered me a good deal of votes and suspicion. Which is disappointing.
Welcome to Mafia.
Seriously though, now would be a good time to put on the "not taking things personally" hat. It's the first round, random people will be thrown into a runoff. The reasons will be bullshit due to lack of info at this point. This time it's you - along with other people who are in the runoff with you. It's not personal, and not worth being disappointed over.
Nah, I'm not offended by it/taking it personally. I said it is disappointing because, yeah, no one likes to be in the final run off D1. That's just a fact. But as you said, reasons D1 are typically bullshit (e.g. the townspeople just vote for whoever, with no context/knowledge whatsoever; and the Mafia will try to blend in by ostensibly doing that exact same thing). I simply found it interesting that in previous games, my talkativeness was reason to cast suspicion upon me and send me into the run off, whereas this game SFA used the counter argument - but really, that simply proves what you just said about D1 reasons being predominantly BS (of course there are exceptions when people actually do something really sketchy).
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I do think that we had at least one Mafia in that original 5 (that made it to the initial run off) that has now slipped out.
So you are saying either Mike D or Monky...why did you vote for me then?
Yes, I'm saying that. Not asserting it confidently - just saying it seems likely that one of them slipped out but shouldn't have. It is a numbers thing more than anything else at this point. Typically at least one mafia who gets 2 votes at first then escapes the final run off(s) D1.
As for why I voted for you? Well, I cast that vote on page 2. Five of us had 2 votes. I had to put someone to 3. There was no specific reason I put it on you -- as I stated when I did it. But then you asserted "self preservation" and moved your vote to me. At that point, why would I choose to switch off of you... I doubt many people would in that situation.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal
Bleary-Eyed Bonnawook Globlist Facist Slave Dog
Seriously though, now would be a good time to put on the "not taking things personally" hat. It's the first round, random people will be thrown into a runoff. The reasons will be bullshit due to lack of info at this point. This time it's you - along with other people who are in the runoff with you. It's not personal, and not worth being disappointed over.
Nah, I'm not offended by it/taking it personally. I said it is disappointing because, yeah, no one likes to be in the final run off D1. That's just a fact. But as you said, reasons D1 are typically bullshit (e.g. the townspeople just vote for whoever, with no context/knowledge whatsoever; and the Mafia will try to blend in by ostensibly doing that exact same thing). I simply found it interesting that in previous games, my talkativeness was reason to cast suspicion upon me and send me into the run off, whereas this game SFA used the counter argument - but really, that simply proves what you just said about D1 reasons being predominantly BS (of course there are exceptions when people actually do something really sketchy).
The main BS here is you bringing up what I've said as reason you got in the runoff. First, I never said anything about you being less talkative, I said the game was quite overall. As to you, I said it was strange you took so long to vote in D1R2 but also mentioned that it was a Friday night. I made that statement after you were already in the runoff and it was in response to why I was keeping my vote on Mike D as opposed to switching to you, JR or Monky.
One out of three of your voters mentioned your level of participation when they voted for you. How you, or why, you are spinning this into me making an argument about your quiteness is beyond me.
Wow. Lots of theorycrafting going on here just four pages in.
Between ZIG and Rummy I'm a little more suspicious of Rummy based on ZIG's active role so far, but I don't think either would be on top of my list starting Day 2. Of course, the most sensible move for me right now is to stay on ZIG to keep this runoff as is.
BTW, I'm getting on a plane tomorrow morning and I'll be out of town until Wednesday night. I'll try to keep up on mobile though.
Post by Tainted Opossum on Jun 21, 2016 9:53:20 GMT -5
while I have personally grown to appreciate Zig's stat hungry first round evaluations, I have to feel like it's been a little too light this round. I don't actually have a reason to be on Rummy any more than Zig, and I don't think anyone else does either. The same can be said for Zig. This seems like a preference runoff, not a good sign for townies. There have been some fairly fuzzy moves early on this game that will surely unravel the yarn later on, but for now let's not forget it's day 1.
I believe that our most likely spot for a mafia in this runoff was in the original 3. Once that happened a 4th (standard) and 5th (not so standard) were added. Since Zig was the last added and Rummy in the first 3 my vote moves there
