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Since I know you guys like data, here are all the games since the Mafia Invitational in 2014. I've wanted a thread like this for a while, because I always want to look back at players' past behavior in previous games - but Mafia can be time-consuming enough as it is, and I didn't want to be searching throughout the boards to try to find when people were Mafia/Inspector. I only went back a couple years because then we start to get into inactive player territory. Oh, and here's a link to the Mafia Referendum Thread. If there's anything else that people think should be added, just let me know and I'll include it in the OP. Unless I don't want to.
Since I know you guys like data, here are all the games since the Mafia Invitational in 2014. I've wanted a thread like this for a while, because I always want to look back at players' past behavior in previous games - but Mafia can be time-consuming enough as it is, and I didn't want to be searching throughout the boards to try to find when people were Mafia/Inspector. I only went back a couple years because then we start to get into inactive player territory. Oh, and here's a link to the Mafia Referendum Thread. If there's anything else that people think should be added, just let me know and I'll include it in the OP. Unless I don't want to.
From these 31 games (including the Invitational), the Mafia have won 22, and the Town has won 9.
Huh.This goes against almost every academic study involving the game. Most find that the Town has a slight advantage.
Although, most studies concern games done live, not over the internet, so that is probably a factor.
I don't think I was here for the 1st Annual Invitational, or know why there wasn't a 2nd Annual one... but we should totally do something special for Mafia 100.
Since I know you guys like data, here are all the games since the Mafia Invitational in 2014. I've wanted a thread like this for a while, because I always want to look back at players' past behavior in previous games - but Mafia can be time-consuming enough as it is, and I didn't want to be searching throughout the boards to try to find when people were Mafia/Inspector. I only went back a couple years because then we start to get into inactive player territory. Oh, and here's a link to the Mafia Referendum Thread. If there's anything else that people think should be added, just let me know and I'll include it in the OP. Unless I don't want to.
From these 31 games (including the Invitational), the Mafia have won 22, and the Town has won 9.
Huh.This goes against almost every academic study involving the game. Most find that the Town has a slight advantage.
Although, most studies concern games done live, not over the internet, so that is probably a factor.
Huh.This goes against almost every academic study involving the game. Most find that the Town has a slight advantage.
Although, most studies concern games done live, not over the internet, so that is probably a factor.
These were fun games.
Do you have a link to the study you're talking about? Would be an interesting read.
There are a ton, but here's one such study from Cornell; it concluded that, for a small number of players, a number of mafia proportional to the square root of the total number of players gives each group a 50-50 shot, mathematically speaking.
The square root of 11 is 3.31. So we, as a collective, must be absolutely terrible townies.
After reading that I think the reason town loses so much is because online mafia can coordinate via PMs during the day where as in face to face this is impossible. In face to face the only time mafia can secretly coordinate is when deciding a whack when everyone has their eyes closed. It's easier to stay hidden when you know exactly what the other mafia is thinking at any given time. Although admittedly I've never had a serious face to face mafia game (I much prefer the resistance).
After reading that I think the reason town loses so much is because online mafia can coordinate via PMs during the day where as in face to face this is impossible. In face to face the only time mafia can secretly coordinate is when deciding a whack when everyone has their eyes closed. It's easier to stay hidden when you know exactly what the other mafia is thinking at any given time. Although admittedly I've never had a serious face to face mafia game (I much prefer the resistance).
Mafia Scum If you read through their wiki and forums you'll see it's much closer to 50/50 over there. They play with different rules though.
Last Edit: Dec 24, 2016 10:43:20 GMT -5 by JR - Back to Top
After reading that I think the reason town loses so much is because online mafia can coordinate via PMs during the day where as in face to face this is impossible. In face to face the only time mafia can secretly coordinate is when deciding a whack when everyone has their eyes closed. It's easier to stay hidden when you know exactly what the other mafia is thinking at any given time. Although admittedly I've never had a serious face to face mafia game (I much prefer the resistance).
Mafia Scum If you read through their wiki and forums you'll see it's much closer to 50/50 over there. They play with different rules though.
I've skimmed there before. If I remember correctly they use a lot more roles then we do here (doctor, escort, etc) which obviously help town.
Mafia Scum If you read through their wiki and forums you'll see it's much closer to 50/50 over there. They play with different rules though.
I've skimmed there before. If I remember correctly they use a lot more roles then we do here (doctor, escort, etc) which obviously help town.
Yeah, their noob games use a chart. 2 mafia, 7 town. You end up with one of the following configurations, but what the combination is is not announced:
2 Vanilla Mafia, 6 Vanilla Town, 1 Town Jailkeeper 1 Vanilla Mafia, 5 Vanilla Town, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Town Inspector, 1 Town Doctor 2 Vanilla Mafia, 5 Vanilla Town, 1 Town Bulletproof, 1 Town Tracker 1 Vanilla Mafia, 5 Vanilla Town, 1 Town Bulletproof, 1 Town Jailkeeper 2 Vanilla Mafia, 6 Vanilla Town, 1 Town Inspector 2 Vanilla Mafia, 5 Vanilla Town, 1 Town Doctor, 1 Town Tracker
So, there are 5 roles we don't use. Roleblocker guesses a name at night and that person can't perform their night action. Doctor guesses a name at night, and if that name was the whack, the victim survives. Jailkeeper is a combination of Roleblocker and Doctor. He/she guesses a name at night. The person they guess cannot perform any night action of their own, but they also can't be whacked. Tracker guesses a name at night and the ref tells them whether that person performed any action that night, but not what the action was. Basically learning that their guess is either mafia, or one of the other roles. Bulletproof is someone who can survive a whack. But just once.
I've skimmed there before. If I remember correctly they use a lot more roles then we do here (doctor, escort, etc) which obviously help town.
Yeah, their noob games use a chart. 2 mafia, 7 town. You end up with one of the following configurations, but what the combination is is not announced:
2 Vanilla Mafia, 6 Vanilla Town, 1 Town Jailkeeper 1 Vanilla Mafia, 5 Vanilla Town, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Town Inspector, 1 Town Doctor 2 Vanilla Mafia, 5 Vanilla Town, 1 Town Bulletproof, 1 Town Tracker 1 Vanilla Mafia, 5 Vanilla Town, 1 Town Bulletproof, 1 Town Jailkeeper 2 Vanilla Mafia, 6 Vanilla Town, 1 Town Inspector 2 Vanilla Mafia, 5 Vanilla Town, 1 Town Doctor, 1 Town Tracker
So, there are 5 roles we don't use. Roleblocker guesses a name at night and that person can't perform their night action. Doctor guesses a name at night, and if that name was the whack, the victim survives. Jailkeeper is a combination of Roleblocker and Doctor. He/she guesses a name at night. The person they guess cannot perform any night action of their own, but they also can't be whacked. Tracker guesses a name at night and the ref tells them whether that person performed any action that night, but not what the action was. Basically learning that their guess is either mafia, or one of the other roles. Bulletproof is someone who can survive a whack. But just once.
Have you ever played a game there? Wonder how the experience compares to here.
Town has certainly been in a victory slump in recent games. Also recently: I got suspended for a game, because allegations of shenanigans. I decided to invest my time in the penalty box into something of a voluntary community service project, in hopes of: 1. Establishing a data set behind a phenomenon which, until recently, was strictly a general hunch on my part. 2. Giving future Town a method of rooting out future Mafia, assuming there was data to prove said hunch to be legitimate concern, and more information for future Inspector guesses.
With that, I researched the D1R1 vote tallies of 26 Mafia games (those listed in this thread, beginning at 70) looking for the answer to one question: Did the group of players who received zero votes in D1R1 include a member of the Mafia?
This "D1R1 No Votes" sample sizes ranged from one player to seven players, in addition to one game where zero players met the criteria.
Mafia vs. Town record is 19-7 in this sample size.
My results are as follows: Total games: 26 Yes to question: 20 No to question: 5 Zero met criteria: 1
Overall, there was at least one Mafia amongst the group of "D1R1 No Votes" players in 76.92% of games including all group sizes. Excluding the inconclusive outlier game with no "D1R1 No Votes" sample set, that rate increases to 80% of games.
Other findings: * This occurred in 20 games where the sample size ranged from one to seven - the minimum and maximum alike. * Most frequent "D1R1 No Votes" group sizes: Three: x11 Two: x5 Four: x4 One: x2 Zero & 5-7: x1 each * This did not occur in 5 games with sample size ranging from one to four. * Of 7 games won by Town, this occurred in 6 games. * Of 19 games won by Mafia, this occurred in 14 games - including the one without a "D1R1 No Votes" group. * One Mafia among "D1R1 No Votes" group occurred in 12 games, with group sizes ranging from one to four. * Two Mafia among "D1R1 No Votes" group occurred in 8 games, with group sizes ranging from three to seven. * Inspector among "D1R1 No Votes" group occurred in 6 games. Of those 6 games, Mafia won 100%. * Town is 5-7 when there is one Mafia among "D1R1 No Votes" group. Town is 1-7 when there are two Mafia among "D1R1 No Votes" group. * Mafia were among "D1R1 No Votes" group sizes with the following frequency: Size 1: 50% (1 of 2; one Mafia 1x) Size 2: 60% (3 of 5; one Mafia 3x) Size 3: 90.91% (10 of 11; one Mafia 7x, two Mafia 3x) Size 4: 75% (3 of 4; one Mafia 1x, two Mafia 2x) Size 5: 100% (1 of 1; two Mafia 1x) Size 6 & 7: Same as above.
I'll let my fellow readers draw their own conclusions with all this data. I hope it helps Town improve their chances moving forward.
Mafia 73 (Mafia) Mafia - Mike D , bacon , Slack Inspector - Bek D1R1 No Votes: Mike D* Carini Jaz Slack*
Mafia 75 (Town) Mafia - Carini, kdogg , billybaroo Inspector - Jaz D1R1 No Votes: kdogg* Viking Sleepy JFG Billy* Munky (Note: Town player was stacked up to a 4-vote lead, drawing votes elsewhere to even create a runoff)
*Mafia 77 (Mafia) Mafia - Carini, billybaroo , fortyfive33 (Slack) Inspector - Farrisbueller D1R1 No Votes: Potent (Note: Only one player met criteria)
Mafia 78 (Town) Mafia - Jaz , bogart , surfbum Inspector - krissyjo D1R1 No Votes: Jim Bogart* Farris
*Mafia 95 (Town) Mafia - LD, danbob, Viking Inspector - SFA D1R1 No Votes: JR Tainted (Notes: Day One - LD lynched by co-MVP JR's vote change; Day Two - Viking lynched per Rule 3(g) ejection)
Mafia 96 (Mafia) Mafia - kdogg , NBF, JR Inspector - LD D1R1 No Votes: Roonectar SFA NBF* (Notes: Two "Mafia > Mafia" votes, longest D1R1 in data set)
I might wish to continue this community service project, seeing as I earned another suspension today - this one with no regrets. I have my own ideas on how to build upon this, but feedback is appreciated in addition to that.
Two things I would like to do if I get to building on this: 1. Compare this with the "Last Four initial voters" metric in that same timeframe. 2. Compare this with the "Lowest Four post count in D1R1" metric in that same timeframe. I find both are also effective means of shining light on potential Mafia, although it could help Town to know which is most reliable. I'm willing to do that, since I now get another game in the penalty box... but if I do, I'd like to hear other criteria to look for while I'm at it?
Calculating Last Four would be easier to re-compile; sadly, I deleted vote histories in my mobile Memo as I went along for space considerations. Lowest Four would entail combing through ~2500 posts (26-27 games x average 3 pages per D1R1 x 30 posts/page) to find out where post counts stood at that point. Plan to compare Last Four either way. But if I'm doing Lowest Four, I might as well gather more while I'm on that deep dive?
Suggestions? Reply in thread, drop me a private line, whatever.
Thanks again to Jaz for making this reference thread.
