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Okay so I'm going to try to look at the whack from each of your perspectives as Mafia.
If I'm Mafia-Dan, I've got SFA who wants me dead, Jaz who think's I'm town but can be persuaded, and JR who thinks I'm town. Why do I whack JR over SFA and Jaz?
With SFA gone, my options are to persuade Jaz to vote for JR, which might prove difficult given how townie-ish JR has been all game. I could also persuade JR to vote for Jaz, which could happen, but still might be less likely than JR voting for me. If I whack SFA, it points directly to me.
With Jaz gone, SFA would vote for me, because I probably wouldn't persuade him to vote for a very townie-ish JR. So my task would be to persuade JR into voting for SFA instead of me, which would probably not be very likely either.
With JR gone, my options are to persuade SFA into thinking that Jaz is Mafia (which is unlikely, considering how much SFA has voiced that he wants me gone), or persuade Jaz into thinking that SFA is Mafia (probably not too hard considering that Jaz voted for SFA twice this game).
...
If I'm Mafia-SFA, I've got Jaz who was suspicious of me but then said he thinks I'm town, JR who believes I strongly read town, and Danbob, who I've accused of being Mafia and have gotten into a spat with recently. Why do I whack JR over Jaz and Danbob?
With Danbob gone, I have to persuade Jaz to vote for JR, or JR for Jaz. I've been calling JR town recently so it'd be hard to persuade Jaz. Persuading JR might not be too difficult though. But if I kill Danbob, it outs me as someone who has been trying to kill a townie.
With Jaz gone, Danbob will probably vote for me, because JR seems townie-ish and because I've been gunning for him. So my task would then be to persuade JR to vote for Danbob, which might not be too hard, though JR has said that he thinks Danbob is town. However, if I whack Jaz, it points to me since he voiced suspicions of me.
With JR gone, my options are to persuade Danbob to vote for Jaz (unlikely given how Danbob is probably suspicious of me given how I've been gunning for him, plus Danbob has defended Jaz in the past), or to persuade Jaz to vote for Danbob (which has potential, since Jaz said that he's open to voting for him).
...
This ended up being unhelpful, because I've concluded that whether the Mafia is SFA or Danbob, both of you have good reason to whack JR over myself or the other townie.
So now I'm poring over past games to try and see how each of you act as Mafia.
Actually I'm not sure a Mafia-SFA would have whacked JR instead of me. We both said we thought he was town, and JR was closer to voting for Danbob this past round than I was. It wouldn't have taken much convincing. Unless Mafia-SFA was really worried that whacking me would validate my suspicions of him? I wouldn't really think so, considering that JR should have those same suspicions of a 5th-round living SFA.
You can never tell with SFA. Because he absolutely is the sort of person who would defend multiple townies and go after his fellow Mafia. I could easily see his actions in round 1 spat being staged. Also, he's being going after Danbob since round 2. Which again makes me ask why wouldn't they whack him? When townie-SFA is on your tail for most of the game, you don't let him live. Keep him alive if he's on the wrong track, sure. But why whack Carini after round three? Possibly because he was on LLL's tail, which would be a good enough reason to whack him instead of SFA. Carini did go after LLL significantly there. I don't buy that they whacked him because of his comments on Danbob. He did vote for DB initially, but quickly said wait no and then changed his vote.
You can never tell with SFA. Because he absolutely is the sort of person who would defend multiple townies and go after his fellow Mafia. I could easily see his actions in round 1 spat being staged. Also, he's being going after Danbob since round 2. Which again makes me ask why wouldn't they whack him? When townie-SFA is on your tail for most of the game, you don't let him live. Keep him alive if he's on the wrong track, sure. But why whack Carini after round three? Possibly because he was on LLL's tail, which would be a good enough reason to whack him instead of SFA. Carini did go after LLL significantly there. I don't buy that they whacked him because of his comments on Danbob. He did vote for DB initially, but quickly said wait no and then changed his vote.
So if SFA is Mafia I think it would be with LLL.
I mean if Danbob is Mafia I think it would be with LLL, because that's why they would whack Carini instead of SFA.
i've got people coming in and out every time I have a free moment but I'll certainly chime in here in a bit. Then i'll be totally free after 7ish.
The main thing i'd argue over the speculation is the whacks.
The last 3 point to Dan over me or you. Zolah mentioned me in her theory but it was secondary to her vote. In her own words.
I think it's a massive streach to say the LD whack points to me as "the experinced one." First, there are 4 or 5 of us who've been playing for years at this point. But if you had to include it could just as well mean LLL for the twist longtime players. Also, this is just LD's meanless speculation unless the argument is he had my name instead of Maddog. Which makes little sense.
I assume that SFA is gonna vote me instantly here. GG mafia. I really have no one to blame but myself for playing like shit and allowing myself to be set up.
Oh shit I thought that said locked. What's keeping you from SFA?
Because you're not playing like a townie. I mean, I'm not Mafia, but you haven't even explored the option that I could be in any of your posts this round. You go all in on SFA, and all you say about me is that you don't find anything I've done suspicious except my switch off of Maddog. This is the last round. If you're town, the game lies within your choice...and you just shrug off one of them? You've only tried to persuade me to vote for SFA, which is the path of least resistance compared to trying to get him to vote for me. Like, I can come up with reasons for why I might be Mafia, and you don't see any?
But I'm not sold.
SFA - you said the whacks point to Danbob. I don't really agree. Even though Zolah did mention Danbob, she also said there was someone she didn't want to vote along with, and then switched her vote at the end of the round to vote along with Danbob. So she didn't have Danbob's name, and the Mafia knew that. This means she was whacked because she didn't want to vote along with either you or LLL, given that we more or less know Pablo is town. So that whack points to you more than Danbob. And like we've agreed, the LD whack points to Maddog or Potent. Carini mostly points to LLL, only very very slightly to Danbob. And JR's whack doesn't give us shit.
SFA has been on me since day 2 at least. If I was mafia why would I keep him alive? I'm assuming your town and your posts all game (especially this round) read town to me. I didn't just shrug you off - I did a reread and chose SFA for the reasons I lined out in my post. I think you're town because ,Your combinations gave me a pro town vibe, I felt like you were being set up day 2, you defended me when you didn't need to and even today your posts read extremely town. SFA didn't even address most of my post only a "haha" and shrugging off LDs experienced player comment.
Also I can definitely think of reasons you may be mafia. That's why I had trouble choosing between you and SFA. However the way this round is playing out makes me think I've made the right choice.
Oh shit I thought that said locked. What's keeping you from SFA?
Because you're not playing like a townie. I mean, I'm not Mafia, but you haven't even explored the option that I could be in any of your posts this round. You go all in on SFA, and all you say about me is that you don't find anything I've done suspicious except my switch off of Maddog. This is the last round. If you're town, the game lies within your choice...and you just shrug off one of them? You've only tried to persuade me to vote for SFA, which is the path of least resistance compared to trying to get him to vote for me. Like, I can come up with reasons for why I might be Mafia, and you don't see any?
But I'm not sold.
SFA - you said the whacks point to Danbob. I don't really agree. Even though Zolah did mention Danbob, she also said there was someone she didn't want to vote along with, and then switched her vote at the end of the round to vote along with Danbob. So she didn't have Danbob's name, and the Mafia knew that. This means she was whacked because she didn't want to vote along with either you or LLL, given that we more or less know Pablo is town. So that whack points to you more than Danbob. And like we've agreed, the LD whack points to Maddog or Potent. Carini mostly points to LLL, only very very slightly to Danbob. And JR's whack doesn't give us shit.
It seems like you're spinning things.
i'm not spinning anything. I'm just saying as data points the whacks point to Dan over me or you because they do. If the mafia looked over who could be inspector/who could we get future votes from zolah, Carini and JR form a pattern that points more towards Dan than you or I.
Also, I've never said Zolah had Dan's name. I've actually argued Zolah wasn't the inspector. That doesn't mean mafia might have thought otherwise but i'd agree it points more to LLL than Dan.
If you think it points to me more then nothing much I can do about that. But I would point you to the other round 2 post where I told Zolah her theory could get us off track and lose us the game. I'd also remind you that LLL latched on to the thoery and used it in here arguments against. As did Potent. Would you agree that one of them is our most likly second mafia member?
SFA has been on me since day 2 at least. If I was mafia why would I keep him alive? I'm assuming your town and your posts all game (especially this round) read town to me. I didn't just shrug you off - I did a reread and chose SFA for the reasons I lined out in my post. I think you're town because ,Your combinations gave me a pro town vibe, I felt like you were being set up day 2, you defended me when you didn't need to and even today your posts read extremely town. SFA didn't even address most of my post only a "haha" and shrugging off LDs experienced player comment.
i've said there was mafia between you and Pablo since round 2. That's not being "on you." That"s pointing out a probability. And it looks like I was certainly right.
I didn't whack you because I can't.
You didn't whack me because like 5 players had called me suspicious by the end of round 2. Plus, i'm guessing you guys weren't positive if LD was inspector or not.
D2R1 Vote History Jaz > SFA Zolah > Potent Carini > Potent LLL > Jaz SFA > Jaz Jaz > SFA > LLL Pablo > Dan JR > Pablo Dan > Pablo JR > Pablo > Carini Potent > SFA Potent > SFA > Carini
D3R1 Vote History Carini > Dan Carini > Dan > Null Carini > Dan > Null > LLL JR > Dan SFA > Dan Dan > Pablo Pablo > LLL Jaz > LLL Jaz > LLL > Carini LLL > Dan JR > Dan > LLL Jaz > LLL > Carini > Pablo JR > Dan > LLL > Jaz
D4R1 Vote History Jaz > SFA SFA > Dan SFA > Dan > SFA Dan > Pablo JR > Pablo SFA > Dan > SFA > Dan Pablo > JR Jaz > SFA > Null Pablo > JR > Dan Jaz > SFA > Null > Pablo
D4R1 Vote Tally Pablo - 3 (Dan, JR, Jaz) Dan - 2 (SFA, Pablo)
A Reminder (On mobile, not edited to reflect current votes)
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Sept 19, 2017 16:52:25 GMT -5
To be fair... i'm not 100% sure it's fair to say it was Zolah's thoery? Several players brought it up at around the same time. She would be the one that talked about most that round though.
SFA has been on me since day 2 at least. If I was mafia why would I keep him alive? I'm assuming your town and your posts all game (especially this round) read town to me. I didn't just shrug you off - I did a reread and chose SFA for the reasons I lined out in my post. I think you're town because ,Your combinations gave me a pro town vibe, I felt like you were being set up day 2, you defended me when you didn't need to and even today your posts read extremely town. SFA didn't even address most of my post only a "haha" and shrugging off LDs experienced player comment.
i've said there was mafia between you and Pablo since round 2. That's not being "on you." That"s pointing out a probability. And it looks like I was certainly right.
I didn't whack you because I can't.
You didn't whack me because like 5 players had called me suspicious by the end of round 2. Plus, i'm guessing you guys weren't positive if LD was inspector or not.
It's pretty clear why a mafia SFA/jaz would keep me around. I haven't played to my usual style and I've been getting heat all game. It's certainly working either way.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Sept 19, 2017 17:07:25 GMT -5
I'd also like to point out i've been fairly consistent all game. At least as much as you can be in mafia.
The only people i've pushed hard to get voted off are those I think are mafia.
I said there was a mafia in both R1 voting groups. Either Dan or Pablo in Maddog's. I said JR and Zolah were likly town and would get whacked...they did. I was wrong about me getting whacked.
I pushed for runnoffs that would narrow things down to give the town an advantage in the later rounds.
The only thing I regret is not voting LLL in round two. But at the time we needed more information so two folks tied to Maddog seemed a fair runoff, so I sit back to see what could be gathered.
So the worst you could say is voted off one known mafia member. Didn't vote to kill two townies. And didn't switch to kill LLL because I was fine with either going.
I also made a big deal about switching things up and not putting the likly Inspector in the final Round 1 runoff... which is now being used as a reason to vote me off.
I don't see what's mafia about my game play at all really.
Also saying you only said it was me or Pablo is slightly misleading. You definitely said that but you pushed pretty hard to lynch me over Pablo.
ohh I don't deny that at all. I certainly did it later in the game. I did not, however, go after you hard for 3 rounds like your post implied.I think it's more than fair to say "there is likly mafia between these two "and then give your opnion on which one you feel is more townish.
Also saying you only said it was me or Pablo is slightly misleading. You definitely said that but you pushed pretty hard to lynch me over Pablo.
ohh I don't deny that at all. I certainly did it later in the game. I did not, however, go after you hard for 3 rounds like your post implied.I think it's more than fair to say "there is likly mafia between these two "and then give your opnion on which one you feel is more townish.
Fair enough. I didn't mean to imply that and your last sentence is what im trying to get at.
i've said there was mafia between you and Pablo since round 2. That's not being "on you." That"s pointing out a probability. And it looks like I was certainly right.
I didn't whack you because I can't.
You didn't whack me because like 5 players had called me suspicious by the end of round 2. Plus, i'm guessing you guys weren't positive if LD was inspector or not.
It's pretty clear why a mafia SFA/jaz would keep me around. I haven't played to my usual style and I've been getting heat all game. It's certainly working either way.
Funny a lot of the people giving you" heat" got whacked or voted off. Yet here we are in round 5 and here you stand. Maybe they were right to give you heat?
D2R1 Vote History Jaz > SFA Zolah > Potent Carini > Potent LLL > Jaz SFA > Jaz Jaz > SFA > LLL Pablo > Dan JR > Pablo Dan > Pablo JR > Pablo > Carini Potent > SFA Potent > SFA > Carini
D3R1 Vote History Carini > Dan Carini > Dan > Null Carini > Dan > Null > LLL JR > Dan SFA > Dan Dan > Pablo Pablo > LLL Jaz > LLL Jaz > LLL > Carini LLL > Dan JR > Dan > LLL Jaz > LLL > Carini > Pablo JR > Dan > LLL > Jaz
D4R1 Vote History Jaz > SFA SFA > Dan SFA > Dan > SFA Dan > Pablo JR > Pablo SFA > Dan > SFA > Dan Pablo > JR Jaz > SFA > Null Pablo > JR > Dan Jaz > SFA > Null > Pablo
D4R1 Vote Tally Pablo - 3 (Dan, JR, Jaz) Dan - 2 (SFA, Pablo)
I'll leave it unlocked until convinced otherwise or the clock runs out. Danbob if you're Mafia, you've played a good game. Both of you have things that don't smell right to me, but in the end SFA's a slick willy. I think that's more likely than him being used as bait. Maybe I'm wrong, but I accept my fate at this point. Wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong in the final round.
D2R1 Vote History Jaz > SFA Zolah > Potent Carini > Potent LLL > Jaz SFA > Jaz Jaz > SFA > LLL Pablo > Dan JR > Pablo Dan > Pablo JR > Pablo > Carini Potent > SFA Potent > SFA > Carini
D3R1 Vote History Carini > Dan Carini > Dan > Null Carini > Dan > Null > LLL JR > Dan SFA > Dan Dan > Pablo Pablo > LLL Jaz > LLL Jaz > LLL > Carini LLL > Dan JR > Dan > LLL Jaz > LLL > Carini > Pablo JR > Dan > LLL > Jaz
D4R1 Vote History Jaz > SFA SFA > Dan SFA > Dan > SFA Dan > Pablo JR > Pablo SFA > Dan > SFA > Dan Pablo > JR Jaz > SFA > Null Pablo > JR > Dan Jaz > SFA > Null > Pablo
D4R1 Vote Tally Pablo - 3 (Dan, JR, Jaz) Dan - 2 (SFA, Pablo)
