Whether it's your first Bonnaroo or you’re a music festival veteran, we welcome you to Inforoo.
Here you'll find info about artists, rumors, camping tips, and the infamous Roo Clues. Have a look around then create an account and join in the fun. See you at Bonnaroo!!
Look at day 1. Potent voted with me and had no problem advancing Steve-o into the runoff. If I was mafia and he had my name wouldn't it be more beneficial to the town if he cancels my vote? Then on day 2 stating he feels Zig is being set up he votes me instead of the player (Jaz) who had pushed Zig into the runoff. This doesn't add up. My best guess is Potent is with Steve and 1 other that I'm not sure of now. We know Potent likes to vote for his mafia colleagues. I believe his vote for and then eventually off Steve was for distancing with the runoff chaos on day 1 providing the cover.
Okay I should have a few minutes to run some combos.
With Potent as Inspector, we can rule out: Potent, Thor, Tainted, Fozzie, and LLL, and we would rule in Carini as Mafia. I'm also ruling myself out since I know I'm town, but if you're a living townie just replace your name in these combos with mine (actually this would only apply to Maddog and ZIG since Tainted/Thor are confirmed). This leaves us with:
This narrows things down considerably, since Steve and Fore are already dead. This brings us down to having at least one living Mafia in the group of Jaz/Maddog/ZIG, just as Potent said. At least one of us is Mafia (unless it was Carini/Fore/Steve in which case this is all moot if we lynch Carini), and at least one of us is town.
Of these combos, I feel like the Day 2 runoff gives us the most info. If we look at the Carini/ZIG scenario, two of the three Mafia are in this runoff.
And then from here, Carini votes ZIG. I can't really see a scenario in which voting for ZIG makes sense here if they're both Mafia. Carini's vote made it so both ZIG and Carini are at three, with Fore left to vote. Assuming that Fore doesn't then vote for Thor to tie it at three, Carini's vote basically ensured that either ZIG or Carini would die. That would make no sense from a Mafia perspective. As a Mafia you would want to vote for a townie, so that the last voter has a choice between a townie and a Mafia. Which would make ZIG town. The only thing I can think of is that Maybe Carini/ZIG thought it would look too suspicious if they both stacked on the same person? This would make the most sense to me if it was Carini/ZIG/Maddog, because it'd be all three of them on Thor. So that combo is still open to me. I guess you could also claim that Carini/ZIG were really banking on Fore missing his second vote, but that's a tough pill to swallow. Possible, but not very probable IMO. So I can't rule ZIG out completely, but Maddog seems more likely to be Carini's accomplice to me if Carini is indeed Mafia, especially considering that he kept pushing his "three people who didn't move their vote" theory, who are all townies (to me) under an Inspector-Potent reveal.
And to Maddog, who seems to have landed on the Mafia being Carini/Jaz/ZIG: why would I stack on ZIG to put him in the runoff, and then have Carini push him up to three, ensuring that a Mafia dies? You and Thor each already had a vote at that point along with ZIG, so I could have voted for either of you or for Tainted, LLL, Potent, or Fore - all of whom are townies under your theory. You're positing that with only three votes cast and six townies to choose from, I chose to stack on a fellow Mafia, sending him into the runoff, and then for our third Mafia to stack on him again in the runoff, ensuring that one of the two Mafia in the runoff dies. I know you've been suspicious of me all game, but if you're town please take a step back and and ask yourself if that makes sense. If you still think I'm Mafia after that, that's fine, but I'd appreciate it if you gave it some critical thought.
If Potent is telling the truth, we're in a pretty good position, because it means that unless the Mafia is Carini/ZIG/Maddog (possible), or Carini/ZIG/Jaz (which it isn't), the game's not over this round even if we don't lynch a Mafia - and it looks like we probably will lynch one, assuming Carini's Mafia.
Going over Potent-Mafia scenarios is going to take time I don't have at the moment, but if anyone wants to poke holes in what I've laid out so far go for it.
Of these combos, I feel like the Day 2 runoff gives us the most info. If we look at the Carini/ZIG scenario, two of the three Mafia are in this runoff.
And then from here, Carini votes ZIG. I can't really see a scenario in which voting for ZIG makes sense here if they're both Mafia. Carini's vote made it so both ZIG and Carini are at three, with Fore left to vote. Assuming that Fore doesn't then vote for Thor to tie it at three, Carini's vote basically ensured that either ZIG or Carini would die. That would make no sense from a Mafia perspective. As a Mafia you would want to vote for a townie, so that the last voter has a choice between a townie and a Mafia. Which would make ZIG town. The only thing I can think of is that Maybe Carini/ZIG thought it would look too suspicious if they both stacked on the same person? This would make the most sense to me if it was Carini/ZIG/Maddog, because it'd be all three of them on Thor. So that combo is still open to me. I guess you could also claim that Carini/ZIG were really banking on Fore missing his second vote, but that's a tough pill to swallow. Possible, but not very probable IMO. So I can't rule ZIG out completely, but Maddog seems more likely to be Carini's accomplice to me if Carini is indeed Mafia, especially considering that he kept pushing his "three people who didn't move their vote" theory, who are all townies (to me) under an Inspector-Potent reveal.
And to Maddog, who seems to have landed on the Mafia being Carini/Jaz/ZIG: why would I stack on ZIG to put him in the runoff, and then have Carini push him up to three, ensuring that a Mafia dies? You and Thor each already had a vote at that point along with ZIG, so I could have voted for either of you or for Tainted, LLL, Potent, or Fore - all of whom are townies under your theory. You're positing that with only three votes cast and six townies to choose from, I chose to stack on a fellow Mafia, sending him into the runoff, and then for our third Mafia to stack on him again in the runoff, ensuring that one of the two Mafia in the runoff dies. I know you've been suspicious of me all game, but if you're town please take a step back and and ask yourself if that makes sense. If you still think I'm Mafia after that, that's fine, but I'd appreciate it if you gave it some critical thought.
If Potent is telling the truth, we're in a pretty good position, because it means that unless the Mafia is Carini/ZIG/Maddog (possible), or Carini/ZIG/Jaz (which it isn't), the game's not over this round even if we don't lynch a Mafia - and it looks like we probably will lynch one, assuming Carini's Mafia.
Going over Potent-Mafia scenarios is going to take time I don't have at the moment, but if anyone wants to poke holes in what I've laid out so far go for it.
"And then from here," - Carini voting ZIG gives ZIG his vote back. If we are playing your assumption that you aren't mafia, then it makes sense for Carini to vote Zig, allowing for 2 town votes vs. 1.
"why would I stack on ZIG" - because its not something you're above doing as mafia, don't act like no one distances, don't forget Jaz is into gaming splits, ZIG brought it up last game and he was dead on there.
Also Jaz's syntax of 'Subtly say it's MD' - 'Plead to MD' - 'Subtly say it's MD' isn't really striking a good chord with me.
I'm doing this on mobile, so forgive me for not explaining everything well in advance, but we are at a crucial point.
I'm inspector. My given name was Carini. Townies, read my Drakes on day 2, you'll see I joined Tainted in voting for him and tried to leave a trail in case I died.
Night one guess was Taint. He is town. I guessed him because of his switch from Fozzie to Stevo. With such a terrible D1, that was the best basis I could find for a guess.
On D2, I guessed Thor. He is town. I thought he hid a bit during D2, which, again, was a terrible day due to Fore's absence. I also thought mafia Thor could have been banking on Fore not showing up and so a vote for mafia Carini would be good distance. I was wrong.
At this point, I know Tainted, Thor, LLL, and Fozzie are town (or mafia whacked themselves, which doesn't matter to us for purposes of voting out mafia). I'm also inspector. I know Carini is mafia, and we don't know the statuses of Fore or Stevo but they are both dead so we don't need to try to kill them again.
That leaves 3 unknown players - Jaz, ZIG, Maddog. I had felt on D1 that both ZIG and Maddog were making town moves but I can't promise that anymore. At least one of those three is town though.
Potent > Carini
Think we need to whack the known then deal with the fallout.
Why not wait till a few people vote b4 revealing?
I had in my mind that if I made it to D3 I'd reveal right away. This is over the thirty or so games I've played on here, not just this game. As soon as I hit create post in my reveal I thought of the strategy that you mentioned. I understand the point of doing that.
^"and then from here,".....in the event it's both of you, it doesn't matter, fore's already missed a vote, so maybe you hope he doesn't vote at all, maybe it's thor. either way if carini moves to zig, zig gets his vote back, if carini moves to thor, jaz gets his vote back. you're still depending on fore either way to not lynch mafia, but with at least 1 revote either way you're sitting in an ok spot.
Post by potentpotables on Nov 21, 2017 16:31:12 GMT -5
Fat fingers, let me finish the response to Dr. Joe.
I understand, but from my viewpoint waiting longer is less believable. I always viewed the inspector job as getting to D3 alive with enough info to narrow it down to 3 names. I have done that, hopefully we can drive it home from here.
I'm kind of ok with the quick reveal? If potent votes first, or if anyone happens to vote for potent first it's going to come across as more of a fake imo. also the list of potential whacks is getting smaller, another day would be risky.
Of these combos, I feel like the Day 2 runoff gives us the most info. If we look at the Carini/ZIG scenario, two of the three Mafia are in this runoff.
And then from here, Carini votes ZIG. I can't really see a scenario in which voting for ZIG makes sense here if they're both Mafia. Carini's vote made it so both ZIG and Carini are at three, with Fore left to vote. Assuming that Fore doesn't then vote for Thor to tie it at three, Carini's vote basically ensured that either ZIG or Carini would die. That would make no sense from a Mafia perspective. As a Mafia you would want to vote for a townie, so that the last voter has a choice between a townie and a Mafia. Which would make ZIG town. The only thing I can think of is that Maybe Carini/ZIG thought it would look too suspicious if they both stacked on the same person? This would make the most sense to me if it was Carini/ZIG/Maddog, because it'd be all three of them on Thor. So that combo is still open to me. I guess you could also claim that Carini/ZIG were really banking on Fore missing his second vote, but that's a tough pill to swallow. Possible, but not very probable IMO. So I can't rule ZIG out completely, but Maddog seems more likely to be Carini's accomplice to me if Carini is indeed Mafia, especially considering that he kept pushing his "three people who didn't move their vote" theory, who are all townies (to me) under an Inspector-Potent reveal.
And to Maddog, who seems to have landed on the Mafia being Carini/Jaz/ZIG: why would I stack on ZIG to put him in the runoff, and then have Carini push him up to three, ensuring that a Mafia dies? You and Thor each already had a vote at that point along with ZIG, so I could have voted for either of you or for Tainted, LLL, Potent, or Fore - all of whom are townies under your theory. You're positing that with only three votes cast and six townies to choose from, I chose to stack on a fellow Mafia, sending him into the runoff, and then for our third Mafia to stack on him again in the runoff, ensuring that one of the two Mafia in the runoff dies. I know you've been suspicious of me all game, but if you're town please take a step back and and ask yourself if that makes sense. If you still think I'm Mafia after that, that's fine, but I'd appreciate it if you gave it some critical thought.
If Potent is telling the truth, we're in a pretty good position, because it means that unless the Mafia is Carini/ZIG/Maddog (possible), or Carini/ZIG/Jaz (which it isn't), the game's not over this round even if we don't lynch a Mafia - and it looks like we probably will lynch one, assuming Carini's Mafia.
Going over Potent-Mafia scenarios is going to take time I don't have at the moment, but if anyone wants to poke holes in what I've laid out so far go for it.
"And then from here," - Carini voting ZIG gives ZIG his vote back. If we are playing your assumption that you aren't mafia, then it makes sense for Carini to vote Zig, allowing for 2 town votes vs. 1.
"why would I stack on ZIG" - because its not something you're above doing as mafia, don't act like no one distances, don't forget Jaz is into gaming splits, ZIG brought it up last game and he was dead on there.
Also Jaz's syntax of 'Subtly say it's MD' - 'Plead to MD' - 'Subtly say it's MD' isn't really striking a good chord with me.
I'm not sure if I'm not following you or vice versa. How would ZIG having his vote back help them if their only options are ZIG and Carini? A Mafia is dying either way. You're suggesting that the Mafia worked together over the course of a Day to ensure that both of the lynch options were Mafia. Yes, Mafia distance and so do I, but that doesn't make sense.
And yes, I'm suspicious of you at that this point if Potent is telling the truth, but I'm not convinced that you're Mafia nor that he's not. If I'm wrong and you're town, then yes I want you to see that your focus on me isn't helping. But if you are Mafia there a bunch of other townies in the game that I want to consider that possibility as well. I don't have blinders on for you like you seem to do for me.
i might be getting the voting order of things mixed up rn with fores misses. i think where i was headed was in an ideal situation fore votes thor and mafia #2/3 and or carini would then be able to move but having mafia on mafia votes prior as distancing. none of that needed to happen though because of the misses. carini is possibly not in the last runoff if fore votes, so having mafia on mafia votes prior to that wouldn't have been a big deal.
carini moves to zig so thor can't/won't, then you have two mafia members with freedom to move to thor once fore makes his vote, he never does so he dies and everyone stays pat, there's really not a lot of "You're suggesting that the Mafia worked together over the course of a Day to ensure that both of the lynch options were Mafia" because in a game where people are actively participating we don't end up with a two way without first getting to a threeway.
i might be getting the voting order of things mixed up rn with fores misses. i think where i was headed was in an ideal situation fore votes thor and mafia #2/3 and or carini would then be able to move but having mafia on mafia votes prior as distancing. none of that needed to happen though because of the misses. carini is possibly not in the last runoff if fore votes, so having mafia on mafia votes prior to that wouldn't have been a big deal.
carini moves to zig so thor can't/won't, then you have two mafia members with freedom to move to thor once fore makes his vote, he never does so he dies and everyone stays pat, there's really not a lot of "You're suggesting that the Mafia worked together over the course of a Day to ensure that both of the lynch options were Mafia" because in a game where people are actively participating we don't end up with a two way without first getting to a threeway.
the runoff was already at a three way. Are you saying that the mafia were banking on townie-Fore voting for Thor and locking the runoff in a three-way tie? And then moving their votes from there? I mean I guess that's possible but it's not something I'd rest my laurels on, personally.
Sorry guys, I was driving in the car yesterday by myself for 7 hours across MN and South Dakota in 40+ MPH and then had to go out with the family for dinner.
Finally able to catch up. I’m not a huge fan of Potent’s reveal timing. I think it would have made sense to wait for a couple votes to see what your given name does and potentially get more information, but I guess it’s understandable.
Based on the information Potent has already obtained, there’s really only one combination that is left from my perspective.
Carini - Jaz - Maddog
The only way Jaz or Maddog are not Mafia is if Fore or Steve-O we’re Mafia, but that doesn’t really matter because we would just be one ahead at this point and killing Jaz and Maddog on Day 4 and 5 would still ensure a townie win.
Sorry guys, I was driving in the car yesterday by myself for 7 hours across MN and South Dakota in 40+ MPH and then had to go out with the family for dinner.
Finally able to catch up. I’m not a huge fan of Potent’s reveal timing. I think it would have made sense to wait for a couple votes to see what your given name does and potentially get more information, but I guess it’s understandable.
Based on the information Potent has already obtained, there’s really only one combination that is left from my perspective.
Carini - Jaz - Maddog
The only way Jaz or Maddog are not Mafia is if Fore or Steve-O we’re Mafia, but that doesn’t really matter because we would just be one ahead at this point and killing Jaz and Maddog on Day 4 and 5 would still ensure a townie win.
ZIG > Carini (locked)
it's not me, it's most beneficial at this point to go after jaz next and then decide between who's left.
also, we're getting Zig at like a 2-3 right now in a game that necessitates a 10 due to how shitty it is. so that jives with me. carini first, jaz second, zig third, town wins?
