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I know I am town and Thor and Tainted have been cleared by Potent so that only leaves Jaz and Maddog as unknown from my perspective.
Carini - Jaz - Maddog would seem like the most likely scenario at this point which would mean both have to go but I still want to go back over the game since it’s been a fairly light and inactive game so far.
I would like to see a runoff at this point so I can have time to review the game again since I have been traveling and not really on my phone much for the last week and a half.
Post by Tainted Opossum on Nov 27, 2017 9:14:56 GMT -5
This isn't an easy one to decipher. On the one hand, I feel the whacks aren't a clear indicator of zigs guilt as they could be misdirection. On the other hand, I find Jaz to be slightly more suspicious than thor after reviewing all their actions and self described agendas.
D1 - Jaz, Steve both vote me and drop me out. Zig/Fore both drop out potent. Potent/Maddog drop zig out. Zig makes a rather meaningless vote for Fozzie, Jaz doesn't move off Fore, both things contribute to the mess (taking LLL, Thor, Tainted, Potent out of the equation for simplicity).
D2 - Jaz, Carini both vote for ZIG, but it's pretty easy to get to a point where Carini can move off if you believe ZIGs mafia, which wouldn't have needed to really happen had Potent not moved back onto Carini. If it's steve it doesn't really matter what happens here until Potent's move.
Carini/Jaz both voting for ZIG gives them at least one chance to move off if need be, Thor at 2 votes before Fore's 2nd missed vote could have easily been pushed to 4. Fore evens it at 3, Carini moves as a retaliation vote. Keep in mind Potent is about to guess Thor, and at this point I already have suspicion as well. If it's Steve, all that needs to happen is just ensure that ZIG/Thor make it in, which both were definitely more suspect than Carini at this point.
Fore's miss keeps mafia (Carini more than anything) from having to make any changes, get defensive, etc.
D4 - Jaz/ZIG voting for each other here makes it seem like that would break down, but at this point if they're both mafia they don't have any other choice than gang up on me or distance.
if it's Zig you guys should have made better whacks, if it's steve it makes a lot of sense him stirring up zig and getting a narrative started.
also, zig hasn't questioned anyone's reading comprehension so I still think if we whack jaz and then zig we're good.
why Jaz - Zig and not Zig - Jaz?
because I don't really have a back up scenario of Carini-ZIG-_____. I don't think Steve fits as well, if it's Fore the timing of the missed vote makes sense, and there maybe going ZIG-Jaz wouldnt be the worst. but even with that going either way shouldn't change much.
also it seems in ZIGs theory, and Thor's votes this round, that Carini-Jaz-ZIG/MD/dead person is what we're working with here.
Thor's votes* in that he didn't vote me. Which to me, seems like he'd rather put me against whoever is left of jaz/zig, pending us getting it right and the third being dead already.
Part of me wants to entertain the notion that Potent was faking and Tainted is the last living Mafia simply because I find it suspect that no one's really questioned his reveal too much (myself included), but Maddog has enough of a hardon for me that the efforts would be wasted anyway.
However, I don't think that's the case. Between Maddog's move off ZIG into himself (which was not nearly as self-sacrificial as he's made it out to be since he obviously would have moved off of himself if he went forward into the runoff), his trying to get votes on the Tainted/thor/jaz group (which is all townies if Potent was telling the truth), his narrative-pushing in regards to the whacks being a misdirection on ZIG, and his push to have me voted out in the last round and deal with ZIG later (which would have given them the win), I feel pretty confident that the mafia is Carini/ZIG/Maddog.
Part of me wants to entertain the notion that Potent was faking and Tainted is the last living Mafia simply because I find it suspect that no one's really questioned his reveal too much (myself included), but Maddog has enough of a hardon for me that the efforts would be wasted anyway.
no this is good. town's had a pretty shitty streak of blowing it in the last round but we got it here (I may have had something to do with that, I'll take some blame/credit for that). whether or not it was zig remains to be seen, but this looks like a W.
