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Doh. You're gonna hate me. I confused you with that thing Kdogg did in the "reference" thread. According to him, a mafia was in the "no votes" 75% of the time in the 26 games he looked at. Which really doesn't do much here because of basic math in a group of 4. I was just trying to look at all angles and noticed all 4 people that don't have votes are voting for you or Pablo. Which, obviously, could mean nothing.
Hmmm. My gut is telling me Kanye is the best vote here. Not really because of anything he's done but because most of the shaking up so far involve Zig and Pablo voters. That's not saying any of those moves are necessarily suspicious. I just think the chances are higher there might be mafia motivation behind at least one of the votes shaping the runoff. I view LLL's the least suspicious because I think her switch to Kanye was more genuine because of the timing and her work delay.
SFA >>> Kanye
I'm open to changing. At this point I'm just going off pure speculation.
Ironically, your vote means more people who never received a vote will decide who gets lynched next round. At least that’s more info from them though, I guess.
Correct. As I was trying to point out, it's maybe not the best way to narrow down mafia and it really just comes down to the obvious odds. Probably shouldn't have even asked and risked derailing the game but I recalled seeing the results to that data and it stuck out when reading through.
But I think my other points are a decent way to go when it's early and your shooting in the dark. You never know, mafia have been known to vote themselves in as well.
Just catching up. I'm a teeny bit suspicious of our runoff's composition. This is Kanye's first game, and it's always just kinda weird to me when people are in a rush to vote out newcomers. However, whether he is Mafia or town, it's in the Mafia's best interests for him to stay in the game. So I'm inclined to think that there is no more than one Mafia on Kanye. If the votes stayed where they are, he is set to go forward with ZIG, who is an easy target for votes because of his playing style. So I'm also inclined to believe that there is at least one Mafia on him. There's an argument to be made that ZIG's playing style is ultimately unhelpful, so it might make sense to vote him off when you're going into the game with no info, but I can still see Mafia capitalizing on that argument. I don't really have much to say about Pablo as of yet. I know none of this narrows anything down right now, but it might be helpful later in the game when some of the Mafia are outed.
Just catching up. I'm a teeny bit suspicious of our runoff's composition. This is Kanye's first game, and it's always just kinda weird to me when people are in a rush to vote out newcomers. However, whether he is Mafia or town, it's in the Mafia's best interests for him to stay in the game. So I'm inclined to think that there is no more than one Mafia on Kanye. If the votes stayed where they are, he is set to go forward with ZIG, who is an easy target for votes because of his playing style. So I'm also inclined to believe that there is at least one Mafia on him. There's an argument to be made that ZIG's playing style is ultimately unhelpful, so it might make sense to vote him off when you're going into the game with no info, but I can still see Mafia capitalizing on that argument. I don't really have much to say about Pablo as of yet. I know none of this narrows anything down right now, but it might be helpful later in the game when some of the Mafia are outed.
After reading this I'm also thinking how unhelpful a runoff will be if the argumets don't go beyond what you're pointing out here. A newcomer vs. a controversial player. There's been so little actual game discussion so far I'm not sure it will matter.
Also, I know it's early but if this game stays this quite the town will likely lose.
ZIG is in the runoff because he decided he gets to be the arbiter of how many people we have in the runoff and who gets bumped to 3. And probably because, if he’s town, a mafia wants him dead.
Kanye is in the runoff as a newb, being voted in by the three most experienced players in this game, SFA, LLL, and LD.
I also don’t like that ZIG becomes a free vote if the runoff advances to Kanye/ZIG.
Not that I’ve got something against Pablo, but I think someone should move from Kanye to Pablo to free up more votes for the next runoff. (As is, we already know where ZIG would vote, so it’s a waste for one player who’d be left to vote).
Honestly I’d feel better about a Kanye vs Pablo runoff. Echoing what jaz said I feel like zig is being voted for based on his play style (and his name apparently).
Post by Silver Surfer on Aug 20, 2018 8:58:26 GMT -5
You didn't do anything I was just shooting from the hip, I didn't mean anything by it. I was just saying that your name is lowerdeck and I said I picked you because I think you're hiding something there (in the lower deck) it was a poor attempt at a joke
ZIG is in the runoff because he decided he gets to be the arbiter of how many people we have in the runoff and who gets bumped to 3. And probably because, if he’s town, a mafia wants him dead.
Kanye is in the runoff as a newb, being voted in by the three most experienced players in this game, SFA, LLL, and LD.
I also don’t like that ZIG becomes a free vote if the runoff advances to Kanye/ZIG.
Not that I’ve got something against Pablo, but I think someone should move from Kanye to Pablo to free up more votes for the next runoff. (As is, we already know where ZIG would vote, so it’s a waste for one player who’d be left to vote).
maybe I'm just missing something in your explanation, but, it's like that no matter who comes off at this point?
Kanye - 4 (Pablo, LD, LLL, SFA)
ZIG - 4 (Maddog, Potent, Thor, Kanye)
Pablo - 3(Danbob, Jaz, ZIG)
outside of pablo moving onto himself, we'd still end up with pablo revoting if LD, LLL, SFA move, similarly if someone were to move off of zig.
Post by potentpotables on Aug 20, 2018 10:46:14 GMT -5
Not for nothing, but this is why a 3 person runoff on D1 is a bad idea, and why 4 is optimal. 3 is too narrowly focused and puts us in these binds where votes mean nothing. Having a 3 person runoff instead of a 4 person runoff robs us of voter data.
I voted for ZIG before he made his move to up Pablo to 3, but I think advancing due to this bad strategy is fair and, absent more compelling evidence, I won't be moving my vote this round.
Not for nothing, but this is why a 3 person runoff on D1 is a bad idea, and why 4 is optimal. 3 is too narrowly focused and puts us in these binds where votes mean nothing. Having a 3 person runoff instead of a 4 person runoff robs us of voter data.
I voted for ZIG before he made his move to up Pablo to 3, but I think advancing due to this bad strategy is fair and, absent more compelling evidence, I won't be moving my vote this round.
I wouldn’t say it was a bad strategy but I think he should have moved to someone else before the deadline once it was clear no one was playing his game.
Not for nothing, but this is why a 3 person runoff on D1 is a bad idea, and why 4 is optimal. 3 is too narrowly focused and puts us in these binds where votes mean nothing. Having a 3 person runoff instead of a 4 person runoff robs us of voter data.
I voted for ZIG before he made his move to up Pablo to 3, but I think advancing due to this bad strategy is fair and, absent more compelling evidence, I won't be moving my vote this round.
This wasn't well explained.
If this happens on Day One Round Three, after we've had a round of revotes moving from 4 to 3 in the runoff, I think it's easier to accept meaningless final round Day One votes because it's just something that is bound to occur some games with the voting patterns the way they are. There have to be 2 people in the final runoff, and they have votes, and their votes might be freed up - there's no way to avoid it.
Not having that extra runoff day robs us of the opportunity to gather information on all players and see who we feel better voting with, or against (both participants in the runoff and the non-participants too).
Not for nothing, but this is why a 3 person runoff on D1 is a bad idea, and why 4 is optimal. 3 is too narrowly focused and puts us in these binds where votes mean nothing. Having a 3 person runoff instead of a 4 person runoff robs us of voter data.
I voted for ZIG before he made his move to up Pablo to 3, but I think advancing due to this bad strategy is fair and, absent more compelling evidence, I won't be moving my vote this round.
I wouldn’t say it was a bad strategy but I think he should have moved to someone else before the deadline once it was clear no one was playing his game.
It's a bad strategy because it leads to the possibility of a narrowed runoff, which robs us of voting data - at this point, the best information we have and/or can get. It was interesting the first time or two he did it to see what reactions would be to a move that wasn't normal for our games. We get complacent and used to all players acting in one way. That was useful a few games ago. Now, it's almost expected of ZIG, and you know that when he moves to narrow the runoff, and he has votes, he's a candidate to go forward.
I wouldn’t say it was a bad strategy but I think he should have moved to someone else before the deadline once it was clear no one was playing his game.
It's a bad strategy because it leads to the possibility of a narrowed runoff, which robs us of voting data - at this point, the best information we have and/or can get. It was interesting the first time or two he did it to see what reactions would be to a move that wasn't normal for our games. We get complacent and used to all players acting in one way. That was useful a few games ago. Now, it's almost expected of ZIG, and you know that when he moves to narrow the runoff, and he has votes, he's a candidate to go forward.
Fair enough and see what you’re saying. The counterpoint to that is we are essentially punishing zig for trying to get movement in way too quiet day 1. I don’t think zigs move in indicator of role in anyway since we’ve seen mafia and town make a similar move. I’m not really on either side, but it’s something I have in my mind.
Potent complains when D1R1 is quiet. Then complains when I push my vote around to cause action. It’s not like this is something out of the ordinary for me to do.
Also I'm a little wary of how quiet pablo is. I know him to be more talkative, and it makes me wonder if he's trying to stay quiet and avoid drawing attention to himself.
Also I'm a little wary of how quiet pablo is. I know him to be more talkative, and it makes me wonder if he's trying to stay quiet and avoid drawing attention to himself.
I'm gonna give him the benefit of doubt, for now, cause it's just out of the weekend. And he's not the quietest person in the game.
Not for nothing, but this is why a 3 person runoff on D1 is a bad idea, and why 4 is optimal. 3 is too narrowly focused and puts us in these binds where votes mean nothing. Having a 3 person runoff instead of a 4 person runoff robs us of voter data.
I voted for ZIG before he made his move to up Pablo to 3, but I think advancing due to this bad strategy is fair and, absent more compelling evidence, I won't be moving my vote this round.
I wouldn’t say it was a bad strategy but I think he should have moved to someone else before the deadline once it was clear no one was playing his game.
I think you and everyone knows that if I push someone to 3 votes and nothing happens I would shift my vote back to preserve a 4way. What isn’t going noticed is the fact that both Thor and LLL switched their votes to bump two additional players to 3 votes, effectively eliminating my ability to recreate the original 4way. Especially from someone like Thor who even said he didn’t like that I was being the “arbiter” of how many people were going to be in the runoff when his vote change effectively sealed the fact that we would move to a 4way.
I wouldn’t say it was a bad strategy but I think he should have moved to someone else before the deadline once it was clear no one was playing his game.
I think you and everyone knows that if I push someone to 3 votes and nothing happens I would shift my vote back to preserve a 4way. What isn’t going noticed is the fact that both Thor and LLL switched their votes to bump two additional players to 3 votes, effectively eliminating my ability to recreate the original 4way. Especially from someone like Thor who even said he didn’t like that I was being the “arbiter” of how many people were going to be in the runoff when his vote change effectively sealed the fact that we would move to a 4way.
Looking back I see you’re right. If the votes stay the same I think it’s a pretty easy final runoff for mafia. It’s easy to hide behind a new player or zig did something.
I wouldn’t say it was a bad strategy but I think he should have moved to someone else before the deadline once it was clear no one was playing his game.
I think you and everyone knows that if I push someone to 3 votes and nothing happens I would shift my vote back to preserve a 4way. What isn’t going noticed is the fact that both Thor and LLL switched their votes to bump two additional players to 3 votes, effectively eliminating my ability to recreate the original 4way. Especially from someone like Thor who even said he didn’t like that I was being the “arbiter” of how many people were going to be in the runoff when his vote change effectively sealed the fact that we would move to a 4way.
I noticed, it was one of the reasons for voting the way I did in the runoff. Granted there was no perfect way to do that with the vote spread.
But I do feel like in situations like that people feel pressure to bump others up and even things out. I don't recall many 3-2-2- situations that reversed themselves and ended up with totally new folks in a runoff? Could be wrong. It just seems like when this escalation happens it's pretty much setting the upcoming runoff in stone.
Just catching up. I'm a teeny bit suspicious of our runoff's composition. This is Kanye's first game, and it's always just kinda weird to me when people are in a rush to vote out newcomers. However, whether he is Mafia or town, it's in the Mafia's best interests for him to stay in the game. So I'm inclined to think that there is no more than one Mafia on Kanye. If the votes stayed where they are, he is set to go forward with ZIG, who is an easy target for votes because of his playing style. So I'm also inclined to believe that there is at least one Mafia on him. There's an argument to be made that ZIG's playing style is ultimately unhelpful, so it might make sense to vote him off when you're going into the game with no info, but I can still see Mafia capitalizing on that argument. I don't really have much to say about Pablo as of yet. I know none of this narrows anything down right now, but it might be helpful later in the game when some of the Mafia are outed.
After reading this I'm also thinking how unhelpful a runoff will be if the argumets don't go beyond what you're pointing out here. A newcomer vs. a controversial player. There's been so little actual game discussion so far I'm not sure it will matter.
Also, I know it's early but if this game stays this quite the town will likely lose.
It won't. It rarely does. We will all be posting novellas and calling each other names by the next round.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
Honestly I’d feel better about a Kanye vs Pablo runoff. Echoing what jaz said I feel like zig is being voted for based on his play style (and his name apparently).
Realistically, Kanye is not going to get voted out here, period. I would move my vote to avoid letting a new player get voted out first round, and others on him would too. So, if Kanye ends ups in the last runoff, it will almost assuredly be the other player going out. Whoever we decide to send in with Kanye is gone. So we are basically deciding if we want to keep Pablo or Zig here.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
I think you and everyone knows that if I push someone to 3 votes and nothing happens I would shift my vote back to preserve a 4way. What isn’t going noticed is the fact that both Thor and LLL switched their votes to bump two additional players to 3 votes, effectively eliminating my ability to recreate the original 4way. Especially from someone like Thor who even said he didn’t like that I was being the “arbiter” of how many people were going to be in the runoff when his vote change effectively sealed the fact that we would move to a 4way.
I noticed, it was one of the reasons for voting the way I did in the runoff. Granted there was no perfect way to do that with the vote spread.
But I do feel like in situations like that people feel pressure to bump others up and even things out. I don't recall many 3-2-2- situations that reversed themselves and ended up with totally new folks in a runoff? Could be wrong. It just seems like when this escalation happens it's pretty much setting the upcoming runoff in stone.
That is exactly why I didn't move someone to a 2. Also because there is frequently pressure from players to "not throw a vote away" and actually advance things to a run-off. Meh. You guys are insatiable.
Anyways. LL>>>Pablo. I guess I'd rather have it be Pablo Vs ZIG and see where it goes rather than the new guys vs the dead man.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
