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I think mafia is saving themselves BECAUSE of the noise, or at least hiding in it.
A 5 person runoff isn't really more data, is it? You are moving to a 3 person runoff either way (4 or 5), so it's not another round. If a 5 person runoff is more data, then I ask the same question about the cost-benefit analysis between "more data" and "more cover".
lol I was thinking there may be a possibility for another round. Stupid.
So when you do a 4 person runoff, there are 3 new votes that must occur. When you do a 5 person runoff, there is one vote and then 2 switches that must occur. It is still 3 decision makers in either scenario. But in the 4 runoff scenario, all 3 voters must vote for someone new. Couldn't the argument be made that the 2 people who chose to be the ones to switch had more of a motive than the 3 involuntary votes? The second of those votes usually is spent to even things up and really tells you nothing.
Went all the way back to 96 and it looks like town may have been successful on Day 1 once more, btw.
On a re-read but....
with the 5-way, I would bet in this group of players, we would probably see the same few players “fill in the need” for those two switches on a hypothetical D1R2. Basically saying that players like myself and Potent being more agressive switchers would end up doing it most games because we have a lot of players that place their initial vote and then sit on it the entire day..
Now that votes are gonna cast, I'm gonna openly advocate for a Potent/Pablo runoff. Kanye so far appears the most townie-ish to me, plus Pablo took his vote off of Potent and put it onto Kanye. Pablo's also been conspicuously quiet, and Potent quickly latched onto Kanye's idea of putting someone without votes into the runoff, which would make sense if he was Mafia and he and/or a teammate was about to go forward. Otherwise he's barely added anything to the conversation other than talk about numbers/percentages in a 4- vs 5-way runoff. Doesn't help that he's voting for me and I know I'm town, but that's just the usual townie paranoia.
But yeah I think Pablo/Potent is a good runoff.
This is kind of an interesting post. Not that I’m opposed to Pablo/potent but I feel like this could be you trying to slip out here.
Re-read in progress... And magic, we are set for a Potent / Pablo runoff...
I have to work pretty much all day tomorrow, so I'll go ahead and give some thoughts while I have time.
I thought Potent was awfully quiet early on. Aside from voting, he didn't have anything to say about some odd voting and early triple-stacking involving him (of course, I was intimately involved as well). He then gave Jaz a super early Town read. I'm not a fan of giving reads that early, and while I think it would be weird for both of them to be Mafia and to put that out there, it's possible Potent is ingratiating himself to Jaz or something like that.
Jaz is talking more than usual, I suppose. I wouldn't give him a read one way or another because of that quite yet, but it is peculiar. I would definitely not say it makes him Town-ish on Day 1. There are a lot of newer players in the game and Jaz is experienced. It's possible that it simply fell to him to start planting the seeds of some narrative.
I'm leaving my vote as-is for now. I'm pretty comfortable on Potent. I may move, if someone has anything convincing to say or if I notice anything on another read.
You suggested voting for me because of Potent's post The question about Potent discussing those without votes is why now? He does it a lot and it is always after the day ends and the runoff is set. Last game he didn't do it at all. Is he trying to steer someone else into the runoff and himself and another out? Alternatively I now have a reason to keep my vote on you instead of playing musical votes. There is a good chance Potent is the innocent one and it is you jumping off an simple meaningless bit and trying to use it.
Oooh this screams of sentient Carini trying not to be silent! JK.
I did mention it last game, on Day 2. I always think about the best time to do it and do think there is some merit in talking about it before the D1 runoff is set. If we are going by groups of 4, and an average of 1.09 mafia in that group, it's usually 3 or 4 people without D1 votes so there's on average .82 and 1.09 mafia in that group. And that's with just a random sample of 4 of 11.
Plus there is this. Last game Potent was town and he mentioned those without votes on day 2. Now he mentions it before the day 1 runoff is set. Almost like he might be trying to steer some townies in and a mafia or 2 out. The bolded part reeks of planning to whack Kanye to frame me.
Earlier I said that carini might think I'm inspector and so I think mafia might think I'm inspector. I also feel like I've brought attention to a fair amount of things and one of them is bound to have spooked mafia. Plus whacking me can definitely help frame people
Earlier I said that carini might think I'm inspector and so I think mafia might think I'm inspector. I also feel like I've brought attention to a fair amount of things and one of them is bound to have spooked mafia. Plus whacking me can definitely help frame people
I like that you're engaged and active in the game and all, but you are probably giving yourself too much credit.
Earlier I said that carini might think I'm inspector and so I think mafia might think I'm inspector. I also feel like I've brought attention to a fair amount of things and one of them is bound to have spooked mafia. Plus whacking me can definitely help frame people
I like that you're engaged and active in the game and all, but you are probably giving yourself too much credit.
I've been lynched or whacked in every game I've played so maybe just a victim of circumstance
Post by Silver Surfer on Feb 2, 2019 22:17:28 GMT -5
My first game I was lynched round one and have been whacked in the only other two games I have played. I think it is okay for me to think I will be whacked especially since I am the most active. Call it what you want
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