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I'd like to see a runoff with Potent and Jortles if I get lynched here. I don't like how Jortles has classified all of the seemingly unknowns as straight up town. Makes me think there's some budding up going on to try to get people on his side.
All of my straight up towns are based on clearings from Mafia Potent and Inspector SFA.
Well, Jaz seems to be onto us, so maybe he's the whack. If we think inspector is still alive, I think Agarrrrrrrrrr, Kanye, or Jortles should be considered. We can wait to see if Jortles is voted out here.
Is this the post that you're referring to clearing you, Kanye and Agar? Because if so I don't see how this clears anyone really. Mafia always wants to distance theirselves from each other and we've seen them suggest that their mafiamates are actually mafia plenty of times.
Yeah looking at this runoff as someone who doesn't know my role I would probably also vote for me given what we know now. If you believe Potent is mafia, he wouldn't vote off one of his own mafiamates (Thor) and then do it again the next round with Jortles. So this runoff looks like a town v. town.
Well, Jaz seems to be onto us, so maybe he's the whack. If we think inspector is still alive, I think Agarrrrrrrrrr, Kanye, or Jortles should be considered. We can wait to see if Jortles is voted out here.
Is this the post that you're referring to clearing you, Kanye and Agar? Because if so I don't see how this clears anyone really. Mafia always wants to distance theirselves from each other and we've seen them suggest that their mafiamates are actually mafia plenty of times.
Yeah looking at this runoff as someone who doesn't know my role I would probably also vote for me given what we know now. If you believe Potent is mafia, he wouldn't vote off one of his own mafiamates (Thor) and then do it again the next round with Jortles. So this runoff looks like a town v. town.
Potent meant to post that in the Mafia chat but accidentally did in the game thread. He was meaning to tell his mafia brethren that they should whack Jaz, Kanye, Agar or me. There is no reason to distance yourself in the Mafia Chat. We just got a little peak into their world.
FWIW my best guess is still that you are Town, but you are less known than I am based on Potents mistake.
Is this the post that you're referring to clearing you, Kanye and Agar? Because if so I don't see how this clears anyone really. Mafia always wants to distance theirselves from each other and we've seen them suggest that their mafiamates are actually mafia plenty of times.
Yeah looking at this runoff as someone who doesn't know my role I would probably also vote for me given what we know now. If you believe Potent is mafia, he wouldn't vote off one of his own mafiamates (Thor) and then do it again the next round with Jortles. So this runoff looks like a town v. town.
Potent meant to post that in the Mafia chat but accidentally did in the game thread. He was meaning to tell his mafia brethren that they should whack Jaz, Kanye, Agar or me. There is no reason to distance yourself in the Mafia Chat. We just got a little peak into their world.
FWIW my best guess is still that you are Town, but you are less known than I am based on Potents mistake.
Ah ok I see now. That would also explain why he hasn't said anything for awhile. What a mighty fuck up. Yeah I agree with you in regards to this runoff.
-thor was in the last group of 4 to vote. -"Then, there are four players who didn't receive votes at the end of D1R1 - SFA, Maddog, JTR, Potent. I believe in the validity of this theory - we know that any group of four is likely to yield a mafia" - Potent
there we go, it was thor and potent! the theory holds water still.
I thought that originally, but it still works as just "us" as in the Mafia. I think you being all over Potent was enough for him to say you are on to them as a team.
THANKS MADDOG
THANKS JORTLES!
i haven't read your posts enough to know you were referencing SFA, again, I've been thinking about your mafianess, and now have to back away from that.
Not really a fan of people acting like this 100% a known mistake.
Look how many of you jump on Potent/SFA idea right off the bat and tell me the wording of Potent's post couldn't be a set-up. Just careful.
For sure, I wouldn't even necessarily say that jortles, Kanye, agar are clear. It's difficult in that ive, a) been mafia and too detailed and got paranoid I posted in the main thread not the chat, and b) I've bounced around the idea of a fake mistake.
What's weirder to me is how many are both accepting Potent's slip up as genuine and accepting SFA's reveal as legit. It's definitely possible, but idk they seemed kinda contradictory at least initially.
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
What's weirder to me is how many are both accepting Potent's slip up as genuine and accepting SFA's reveal as legit. It's definitely possible, but idk they seemed kinda contradictory at least initially.
I'm just not assuming anything until after the whack/potent lynching
Not really a fan of people acting like this 100% a known mistake.
Look how many of you jump on Potent/SFA idea right off the bat and tell me the wording of Potent's post couldn't be a set-up. Just careful.
For sure, I wouldn't even necessarily say that jortles, Kanye, agar are clear. It's difficult in that ive, a) been mafia and too detailed and got paranoid I posted in the main thread not the chat, and b) I've bounced around the idea of a fake mistake.
Well, it's strange how well some things line-uo.This was a visual I made right after I found out Taint was the whack. It has msome of the same cleared people as Potent's mistake post. And most of possible third member... with him add with questions marks.
Thor - 6 (Taint, Dan, Agar, Kanye, JTR, Potent) Dan - 5 (Jortles, SFA, Jaz, MD, Thor)
What's weirder to me is how many are both accepting Potent's slip up as genuine and accepting SFA's reveal as legit. It's definitely possible, but idk they seemed kinda contradictory at least initially.
I'm just not assuming anything until after the whack/potent lynching
I'm half expecting not to get whacked, because they think it could buy them a round.
I won't turn my guess in until I have a chance to get home and write out a proof post. Just in case.
Well, Jaz seems to be onto us, so maybe he's the whack. If we think inspector is still alive, I think Agarrrrrrrrrr, Kanye, or Jortles should be considered. We can wait to see if Jortles is voted out here.
Because you know and you are teammates with him? If Thor was mafia then that means potent voted him out which is totally up your alley. Plus coming to terms of tainted leading to Thor by votes is something you were very good at when we played together
No goofy. I'm the inspector. Tainted posted a bunch if fucking dumb shit trolling around and hit in Potent cause you and Dan brought him up. Maddog is innocent. I asked about him because of his early vote for Dan. Figured there was a decent chance he was innocent but that was such a clear link to Thor it needed cleared up so the town knew. Didn't know the whole game would become a shitshow in round 2.
I'm just going to lay out where my head is at in case I end up being the whack. Here are the scenarios running through my head:
Scenario 1: Potent's mistake is real and SFA is telling the truth
I do think this is a possibility. I think that it is more likely that Potent's mistake is real than it is that SFA is telling the truth, but they are not mutually exclusive in my opinion. Potent didn't have to mean that Jaz was on to multiple Mafia members to say that Jaz was on to them as a group.
In this scenario, guaranteed Townies are SFA, Maddog, Myself, Jaz, Kanye, Agar, Tainted
Guaranteed Mafia are Thor and Potent.
Unknowns: JTR and Danbob
As I've said before, I think Potent's post passively clears JTR in a way. When he says "Let's see if Jortles gets voted out here," I think he knows that it isn't up to Mafia at that point to determine which of the two remaining Townies get voted out. Also, in this scenario, Thor / Potent / JTR is unlikely because that would mean there are two mafia members left and Potent is basically telling JTR, "lets see if the town kills you or Jortles" while talking about the whack. I think the wording here would have been different if Mafia was about to lose a second member. You just can't go into day 3 with 1 mafia member pre-reveal. There would have been more urgency about this lynch.
Regardless of scenario, JTR looks like a Towny because of how long it took him to process what happened with Potent. I explained it to him long after everyone found out about it. I think Mafia members in that chat would have responded and likely distanced by then. I think JTR is Town even though he is less certain to be Town than many of the others in this scenario.
Dan: My best guess as the third Mafia member in this scenario, even though it is extremely crazy to think of Dan and Thor both being Mafia at the end of Day 1. It does make me understand Potent's switch from Dan to Thor more clearly. I may make an entire post on why I'm leaning Mafia on Dan.
However, being that a Mafia v Mafia runoff on Day 1 is extremely unlikely, maybe this scenario is unlikely itself. Granted, Jaz switched from Tainted to Dan to force the MvM final runoff. So props to Jaz for doing that if this were the case.
Scenario 2: Potent's Mistake is Real and SFA is faking as Inspector
I've mentioned that I believe SFA, but the force of his reveal and him having the name of a dead person makes it tough because that person can't defend himself. It's almost too perfect of a scenario, and it was likely the only way that SFA could have escaped a D4 lynch if his is Mafia. But if he survives tonight...
In this scenario, Townies are Jaz, Agar, Kanye, Tainted and Myself
Mafia: Potent
Lean (basically guaranteed) Mafia: SFA
Lean Town: Thor, JTR - Reasons stated above
Unknown: Dan, Maddog
I still don't like the smell of Dan at this point, but in this scenario he shouldn't really be treated much differently than Maddog, who SFA would have attempted to clear in a fake. Maddog is a complete unknown to me if SFA is lying, but there is less of a connection to Potent for him.
Scenario 3: Potent intentionally is fucking with us
Just disregard a lot of the above. I don't think there is a scenario where Potent isn't at least Mafia. I don't really see the strategy anyways. He'd be fake clearing too many people and only framing SFA. And I'm not really sure why he would be desperate enough to do this at that point. Tough for me to buy this as a move by potent.
Summary
With what we currently have - I think Mafia is some combo of Potent / Thor / SFA / Dan. Potent should be the Day 3 Lynch, obviously. If we believe SFA is Inspector, I think Dan should be the Day 4 lynch. If SFA manages to stick around and we have reason to believe he is lying, he should be the Day 4 lynch. In that scenario, I think Dan should be lynched Day 5, if there is a Day 5. It could be Potent / Thor / SFA in that scenario.
If SFA is lying and it's Dan as the third, I bet they have it projected out and Dan is saying in Mafia chat something like, "guys we still have a shot I have a perfect record on Day 5 on Inforoo Mafia."
As usual, I could be wrong on everything. Disclaimer disclaimer disclaimer... those are my thoughts with the current information we have. Will be fun to see how Mafia plays the whack.
Jesus fucking Christ. You guys are going to fuck around and lose this.
you say this why exactly? Because we lynched JTR instead of Jortles? Your vote was on JTR as well. I personally was on board with voting/switching to Jortles but things started to flip all the way in JTRs direction so it seemed like it wasn’t worth it.
At this point, if the game doesn’t end with lynching Potent next round, then i feel like I’m gonna lean heavily that Potent’s slip up was intentional as a last ditch effort to save Jortles. Though if they don’t whack you (SFA), idk.
Also, from what I can tell, Jortles’ long-winded break down just now overlooked the possibility that both SFA & Potent are lying. This would be crazy, but also opens up the possibility of SFA/Jortles/Potent as mafia imo. Again though, this would be kinda outrageous (and also like Maddog suggests would basically mean Tainted is inspector, which I don’t buy).
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
Jesus fucking Christ. You guys are going to fuck around and lose this.
you say this why exactly? Because we lynched JTR instead of Jortles? Your vote was on JTR as well. I personally was on board with voting/switching to Jortles but things started to flip all the way in JTRs direction so it seemed like it wasn’t worth it.
At this point, if the game doesn’t end with lynching Potent next round, then i feel like I’m gonna lean heavily that Potent’s slip up was intentional as a last ditch effort to save Jortles. Though if they don’t whack you (SFA), idk.
Also, from what I can tell, Jortles’ long-winded break down just now overlooked the possibility that both SFA & Potent are lying. This would be crazy, but also opens up the possibility of SFA/Jortles/Potent as mafia imo. Again though, this would be kinda outrageous (and also like Maddog suggests would basically mean Tainted is inspector, which I don’t buy).
i"m fine with JTR.
I'm referring to talking about me be fake inspector during the freaking night. All you guys are doing is giving the mafia ideas.
They keep me alive. Potent gets voted off in day 3. They keep me alive for day 4 they just need 3 votes. They got two people who've said they'd maybe vote not beleive me if i"m not whacked.
That's one round down for the mafia. One less guess for shot at the third Mafia for the town.
We only have TWO.
I'm irritated that some folks aren't keeping sone stategy/thoughts to yourself during the night. That's all.
Btw, i'm just now getting home. Had to go help my cousin at his chicken houses. Yeee-haw!! The goddamn delivery truck was 3 hours late. Had to unload 42,000 chickens. So i'm not in a very good mood either.
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
I love how jortles says I’m more likely mafia in scenario 1 than JTR. Guess he would have to as mafia to frame someone day 4
uhh no I explained pretty clearly why I lean Town on JTR.
“We can wait to see if jortles gets voted out” is not enough to say that JTR is town. Especially when you consider if he’s town in that scenario, then Thor vs me was a 2 mafia day one closer. If you are town you are stabbing yourself in the foot with that logic.
SFA telling the truth and potent fucking with us to cover for jortles is way more likely
I agree. It seems that pretty much the only reason Jortles is saying he doesn’t understand why Potent would fake is because it would implicate him.
Can you explain this? So in a world where it is me, Potent and Thor as Mafia... we have two left on Day 2 and Maddog hasnt even casted his vote yet. So Potent decides it would be important to get himself lynched and save me? A 1 for 1 trade because he thinks I have a better chance of winning out than he does? Even though Ive been such a nuisance so far? Maddog still may have voted for JTR at the time anyways. This is pretty far-fetched man. Much more likely that potent just fucked up.
I really think you need to be careful of Dan buddying up to you here. Although I’m not sure of this, Im getting a feeling that he wants a showdown between me and him on Day 4 and he thinks he can get you and/or Kanye to take me out and send him to a Day 5 where he is currently undefeated. This thought of mine could absolutely be wrong though. Im very concerned about Dan and I turning into Zolah and I two games ago where it was two townies fighting against each other while mafia watched from the sidelines.
Im saying what i want to in the night because I don’t think Town is on the right track based on the Potent post, and unfortunately the SFA reveal doesnt give us much. My feeling is I wont be whacked because Im controversial enough to where Mafia thinks they will be able to get me lynched when it counts, but I cant risk not getting all of my thoughts out since nobody else was seeing this the way I am.
