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Agar drops out, leaving two townies (under your theory) to revote. They vote for Thor and Tainted. I then switch to Dan, and the rest is history.
Jortles you realize that you're advocating that twice the Mafia threw their own under the bus completely and entirely unnecessarily when they could have put a townie forward, but instead helped each other get voted out? So not only did we end up with the improbable M v. M final D1 runoff, but the Mafia actively worked together to put each other there? Bruh.
Yes I am. And if I'm wrong, then one of you other three is chilling on the sidelines right now and have played an excellent, completely unpredictable game. More unpredictable than Mafia playing with fire on day 1 but thinking they could get away with it until you switched from Tainted to Dan.
It does give me pause... but I have literally nothing on you Agar or Kanye. This is my best guess as of now. Show me something different.
Post by Jake Jortles on May 31, 2019 13:42:16 GMT -5
I will do my homework before locking. I'm going to read through again and try to find dirt on the other three. This was my first and best current guess.
I still stand by the idea that lynching Dan is the safest option for this round, by far. If Potent really just fucked up, we win. If he lied, well then at least we will have sorted that out once and for all going into the final day.
If we lynch Jortles, and the game continues, we'll have a day 5 in which we're still debating whether Potent lied, and that just makes things way too messy imo.
Dan, if you're town, you should honestly recognize this is the best option. I get that you won't vote for yourself, but it's hard to deny that Potent has made it to where it's going to be damn near impossible for you to convince us you're town UNLESS we get 100% confirmation that Potent's post was staged. A day 5 with you in it (again, if you're town) is basically destined for a Town loss.
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
I still stand by the idea that lynching Dan is the safest option for this round, by far. If Potent really just fucked up, we win. If he lied, well then at least we will have sorted that out once and for all going into the final day.
If we lynch Jortles, and the game continues, we'll have a day 5 in which we're still debating whether Potent lied, and that just makes things way too messy imo.
Dan, if you're town, you should honestly recognize this is the best option. I get that you won't vote for yourself, but it's hard to deny that Potent has made it to where it's going to be damn near impossible for you to convince us you're town UNLESS we get 100% confirmation that Potent's post was staged. A day 5 with you in it (again, if you're town) is basically destined for a Town loss.
As much as I agree with this, I have to be fair.
Since I know I'm Town, I know that a day 5 with me in it is also a Town loss.
With that said, I personally need to make sure I'm willing to bet the game on the mafia being Dan. Because if I'm alive in Day 5, I won't be able to convince anyone of anything. I haven't even looked into other options enough.
On the flip side, it would be nice to clear up the Potent thing by eliminating Dan. It will be hanging in the back of everyone's minds until he is gone.
I still stand by the idea that lynching Dan is the safest option for this round, by far. If Potent really just fucked up, we win. If he lied, well then at least we will have sorted that out once and for all going into the final day.
If we lynch Jortles, and the game continues, we'll have a day 5 in which we're still debating whether Potent lied, and that just makes things way too messy imo.
Dan, if you're town, you should honestly recognize this is the best option. I get that you won't vote for yourself, but it's hard to deny that Potent has made it to where it's going to be damn near impossible for you to convince us you're town UNLESS we get 100% confirmation that Potent's post was staged. A day 5 with you in it (again, if you're town) is basically destined for a Town loss.
As much as I agree with this, I have to be fair.
Since I know I'm Town, I know that a day 5 with me in it is also a Town loss.
With that said, I personally need to make sure I'm willing to bet the game on the mafia being Dan. Because if I'm alive in Day 5, I won't be able to convince anyone of anything. I haven't even looked into other options enough.
On the flip side, it would be nice to clear up the Potent thing by eliminating Dan. It will be hanging in the back of everyone's minds until he is gone.
I disagree, because although it may implicate you the most, Potent's mistake being false basically opens it up to where all of us who were "cleared" by Potent are no longer assumed town. That could at least open things up for discussion a lot more than they would were Dan still in the game. Basically, if you're both town, neither of you in a day 5 is ideal. But, Dan in a day 5 is a much steeper mountain to climb.
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
Post by Jake Jortles on May 31, 2019 16:06:12 GMT -5
Leaving out Dan because I did a full analysis on his game.
The Other Three on Thor:
Jaz convinced me to read through again, and so far he is looking the worst of the "other three". Not sure why, if he was Mafia right now, he would want me to go back and look at Dan pushing Thor in D1R1, Agar being the first to jump on Thor in D1R2, and Kanye being the first to hop on that Thor train in D1R3. Kanye had a problem with Jaz giving Thor a revote with his switch from Tainted to Dan. Kanye and Agar landing on Thor with Potent seems unnecessary and weird I suppose. But so is randomly killing your own. Which is why I still think it makes sense if DB was also Mafia.
The Other Three and me on Potent:
I was the first person to randomly call out Potent's quietness. Kanye quickly concurred that it was noteworthy. Kanye again says Potent is off his game. Kanye again calls Potent on gut feeling. Also says Thor doesn't sit right with him. Agar now mentions his concern over Potents switch. Kanye cites DB's "potent vote switch catch" as "the most important info we have so far." (not truly sure what that meant). Kanye immediately votes Potent. Jortles Stacks Potent. Jortles and Potent get into cat fight over Jortles' logic. Jaz defends Jortles in fight. Jaz calls me on saying "this thing of ours." Potent defends me. I ask for Potent to be pushed forward. Potent pushes Jortles forward. Jortles asks for Potent to be pushed forward again. Agar says he would but doesn't. Jaz makes his post about SFA and Potent being Suss together and wishes he would have caught it earlier. Potents post happens. Kanye instantly LOLs it. Agar quick to ask about it. Quick to dig up Jaz's post and show how it frames SFA but says it doesn't make sense. He is then first to say that the post implicates Jortles if anyone. Then he notes Jortles was main person trying to push Potent forward. Jaz feels better about SFA because of the Potent post. Jaz says Jortles is the right kill. So do the other 2...
Ok I'm pretty up to speed.
Here is where I'm at with the "Other Three."
Jaz / Potent / Thor: Is there a chance that Jaz conveniently planted his post about Potent and SFA after Potent dropped out of the runoff and then had Potent make his post because they knew SFA was inspector based on all of his Thor hints? They were nervous of him and wanted to force the reveal? It's hard for me to buy this because why wouldn't they just whack his ass after me or JTR got lynched? Jaz was the least aggressive towards Thor / Potent of all of us. He actually doesn't look very great in that regard.
Agar / Potent / Thor: He really helped fuck Thor. He could be seen as someone who helped execute a Potent move with the way he was quickly speaking about its meaning. I was doing the same thing, though. Again, I feel like Agar and Potent would have been relatively comfy at this point. Why would that move be necessary?
Kanye / Potent / Thor: Helped push Thor. Stirred up a lot of skepticism around Potent. Once again, I feel like Kanye and Potent would have been relatively comfy on Day 2. Why would that move be necessary?
My analysis is currently:
Dan Jaz Agar Kanye
However, of the four, Dan and Kanye smell the worst to me. Just some sort of indescribable stench about them being busy and feeling the need to post that a bunch. Lots of laughing and "fitting in."
I'm not going to say who I would vote to lynch on Day 5 if Dan isn't Mafia because I don't want to be saved or whacked based on it. Although I'm a talker during Nights, I think on Night 4 the importance of Townies being unpredictable is amplified.
Post by Jake Jortles on May 31, 2019 17:46:03 GMT -5
After much reflecting on my drive home and even seeing a car stopped at a light in front of me with a license plate that said “jaz” on the left side, Im still sticking with Dan barring new information.
If he were to make it to day five, he'd have to be voted out. The most embarrassing loss for town is if he is Mafia and we didn’t accept a gift when we were given one. It certainly isn’t the only scenario, and I was probably too bullish on it earlier. But I think we should get it out of the way.
Then ill just hope that Im whacked if Dan isn't mafia so we can have some real fireworks to watch on day 5.
Im still not locking yet because Im waiting for further analysis from others, but Im pretty certain Im not moving.
You don’t need to lynch me to know potents is lying. Look back at day 1, and what Jaz replied to jortles. You have to think mafia intentionally stabbed themselves in the foot twice to create a mafia v mafia final runoff to think he’s telling the truth.
If Potent's mistake post was 100% legitimate, then Dan is Mafia. I feel like that's rather open and shut at this point, given that Potent mentioned every living player except Dan as being town.
However, I think that's a little too clean.
I'm wont to believe that Potent was intentionally trying to mislead us, which (similar to Dan) I'm grumpy about because it's something that I had wanted to do also. But apparently Maddog had also thought of the idea, so it probably wouldn't have worked anyway with so many people having considered it. But I digress. If Potent's mistake post was a fake, I think there are a couple different scenarios:
SFA was Mafia, and they whacked him to get the town to focus on Dan/Jortles, allowing Agar/Kanye to slip by relatively easily. However, if this is the case, I believe that A) SFA and Potent will have earned their win if they end up winning, and B) y'all can handle that in Day 5, please just whack me. So I'm not really going to entertain it.
And as much as Potent loves distancing, I don't think Thor/Dan/Potent would have allowed two Mafia to end up in the final D1 runoff. Manipulating perception is important as Mafia but it's still a numbers game. You don't want to start the game guaranteed to be down one. And similar to above, if they did that and still end up winning, they've earned it. Lastly, if Potent's post was fake - which I think it is - it would lead us directly to Dan, as Jortles is arguing. So if Mafia Potent wants to lead us to Dan, it probably means that Dan is town.
If Agar or Kanye are the third, they're doing a good job of laying low. Kanye's posts feel very genuine to me. He did move off of Potent and onto JTR at one point, but that's bound to happen for blind townies. Agar is hard to read. I feel like he hasn't contributed a whole lot, but nothing really sticks out to me either.
As for Jortles (and if you're reading this with bated breath to see if I'm going to vote for you - yes I am, you can breathe now), there was an interaction between him and Potent early in Day 2 I believe that I called out as sounding contrived. Which is what happens when you're trying to invent reasons to throw shade on your fellow Mafia. And my post regarding Jortles' "this thing of ours" phrasing was followed by Potent defending him. There's just a lot of smoke around Jortles, and I think it's warranted. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and we'll march on to Day 5 if there are no further switches.
I still stand by the idea that lynching Dan is the safest option for this round, by far. If Potent really just fucked up, we win. If he lied, well then at least we will have sorted that out once and for all going into the final day.
If we lynch Jortles, and the game continues, we'll have a day 5 in which we're still debating whether Potent lied, and that just makes things way too messy imo.
Dan, if you're town, you should honestly recognize this is the best option. I get that you won't vote for yourself, but it's hard to deny that Potent has made it to where it's going to be damn near impossible for you to convince us you're town UNLESS we get 100% confirmation that Potent's post was staged. A day 5 with you in it (again, if you're town) is basically destined for a Town loss.
I won't be locking until there's a decent amount more discussion. Specifically, I'd like Danbob to reply to this; I think the logic in the idea is sound. Dan808, how do you feel about sacrificing yourself this round to significantly clarify things for Town in the next round, if you really are town? If Agar is Mafia, there's no need for him to push for you with any conviction. He could just sit back and wait for either you or Jortles to get voted off. Actually the more I think about it, the more I think this makes Agar likely town.
I still stand by the idea that lynching Dan is the safest option for this round, by far. If Potent really just fucked up, we win. If he lied, well then at least we will have sorted that out once and for all going into the final day.
If we lynch Jortles, and the game continues, we'll have a day 5 in which we're still debating whether Potent lied, and that just makes things way too messy imo.
Dan, if you're town, you should honestly recognize this is the best option. I get that you won't vote for yourself, but it's hard to deny that Potent has made it to where it's going to be damn near impossible for you to convince us you're town UNLESS we get 100% confirmation that Potent's post was staged. A day 5 with you in it (again, if you're town) is basically destined for a Town loss.
I If Agar is Mafia, there's no need for him to push for you with any conviction. He could just sit back and wait for either you or Jortles to get voted off. Actually the more I think about it, the more I think this makes Agar likely town.
Couldn't he just like his odds against jortles more?
Post by Jake Jortles on May 31, 2019 19:44:21 GMT -5
Im somewhat relieved since I want no part of a Day 5 with this group. With this move, Jaz has guaranteed himself a day 5 ticket.
I am surprised that You (Jaz) view a Danbob victory as worthy of a cap tip. Its the most obvious and embarrassing loss the town could suffer imo. You forced that final runoff. You believe Potent would kill his own anyways... whats the difference lol.
Jortles > Dan (locked)
Dan - you could be a victim of circumstance. I cant help that. Viewing the game from my perspective as Town, I can’t help but believe Potent flat out fucked up.
If Jaz and Dan are in Day 5 together, I have no advice for the third. This move makes me highly suspicious because it could make sense that Jaz would want the easiest possible kill in Day 5 as a Mafia member. However, THIS would be a weeeeelllll deserved win if I ever saw one. So I still hope you guys take out Dan.
Good luck town. This was a fun, fun game.
Take me to the triple six clubhouse, they got a plot for me already dug out.
Post by Jake Jortles on May 31, 2019 19:46:21 GMT -5
Last I saw Kanye was talking locks so i thought that was my last post. Im going to stay locked, but I will contribute if I have more to say based on new conversations.
I If Agar is Mafia, there's no need for him to push for you with any conviction. He could just sit back and wait for either you or Jortles to get voted off. Actually the more I think about it, the more I think this makes Agar likely town.
Couldn't he just like his odds against jortles more?
Maybe, but there's more than enough pointing at both of Jortles/Dan that idk that it'd make much difference. That's just me if I'm in Mafia-Agar's shoes though.
Post by Silver Surfer on May 31, 2019 19:48:54 GMT -5
Fuck it. I'm on the same boat of agar and think lynching Dan might be the move here. Combine that with jortles strong pleas and gracious exit post and I highly doubt he's mafia.
Couldn't he just like his odds against jortles more?
Maybe, but there's more than enough pointing at both of Jortles/Dan that idk that it'd make much difference. That's just me if I'm in Mafia-Agar's shoes though.
fuck I feel like such a psychopath playing this game but I forgot I had more to say. I forgot about something earlier.
If you were mafia, you could have very, very easily allowed this day to move quicker and be defined by me vs dan. If one of you other three is mafia, I strongly believe that person would have allowed the hype to surround just the two of us.
Instead, you convinced me to go back and read to try to find anything on the others. You've intentionally slowed the game and tried to move it in all directions. That looked a lot like Town to me. A lot. Surprised this thought left my mind for so long. Still think your respect for a danbob victory is misplaced, though.
Maybe, but there's more than enough pointing at both of Jortles/Dan that idk that it'd make much difference. That's just me if I'm in Mafia-Agar's shoes though.
fuck I feel like such a psychopath playing this game but I forgot I had more to say. I forgot about something earlier.
If you were mafia, you could have very, very easily allowed this day to move quicker and be defined by me vs dan. If one of you other three is mafia, I strongly believe that person would have allowed the hype to surround just the two of us.
Instead, you convinced me to go back and read to try to find anything on the others. You've intentionally slowed the game and tried to move it in all directions. That looked a lot like Town to me. A lot. Surprised this thought left my mind for so long. Still think your respect for a danbob victory is misplaced, though.
Wasn't it me that told you guys to stop bickering and go back?
fuck I feel like such a psychopath playing this game but I forgot I had more to say. I forgot about something earlier.
If you were mafia, you could have very, very easily allowed this day to move quicker and be defined by me vs dan. If one of you other three is mafia, I strongly believe that person would have allowed the hype to surround just the two of us.
Instead, you convinced me to go back and read to try to find anything on the others. You've intentionally slowed the game and tried to move it in all directions. That looked a lot like Town to me. A lot. Surprised this thought left my mind for so long. Still think your respect for a danbob victory is misplaced, though.
Wasn't it me that told you guys to stop bickering and go back?
Yeah my thoughts still haven’t really changed with what’s been said. Even with Jaz’s points about the smoke around Jortles, I still think that definitively identifying Potent’s post as legit or false takes precedence.
As for locking, I thought that kind of stuff was pretty much reserved for situations in which the lynch choice is clear as day. Additionally, I really would like to hear from Dan before locking personally.
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
I still stand by the idea that lynching Dan is the safest option for this round, by far. If Potent really just fucked up, we win. If he lied, well then at least we will have sorted that out once and for all going into the final day.
If we lynch Jortles, and the game continues, we'll have a day 5 in which we're still debating whether Potent lied, and that just makes things way too messy imo.
Dan, if you're town, you should honestly recognize this is the best option. I get that you won't vote for yourself, but it's hard to deny that Potent has made it to where it's going to be damn near impossible for you to convince us you're town UNLESS we get 100% confirmation that Potent's post was staged. A day 5 with you in it (again, if you're town) is basically destined for a Town loss.
I won't be locking until there's a decent amount more discussion. Specifically, I'd like Danbob to reply to this; I think the logic in the idea is sound. Dan808, how do you feel about sacrificing yourself this round to significantly clarify things for Town in the next round, if you really are town? If Agar is Mafia, there's no need for him to push for you with any conviction. He could just sit back and wait for either you or Jortles to get voted off. Actually the more I think about it, the more I think this makes Agar likely town.
Well here’s where my heads at right now. If me being alive day 5 is going to make us lose the game, just lynch me now. It’ll confirm I’m town and hopefully whoever is left over can take the facts and pull out the dub. On the other hand I’m a little frustrated since I feel like me being mafia is such a huge stretch and I don’t know why people are latching on to potents post so heavily. In the end though if lynching me is what can get everyone’s head back on straight then just do it.
I’m locking on jortles though. If he’s not mafia then GG to mafia for some good tomfoolery. If anything I’m glad this game has been a lot more fun then some of the previous ones.
Yeah my thoughts still haven’t really changed with what’s been said. Even with Jaz’s points about the smoke around Jortles, I still think that definitively identifying Potent’s post as legit or false takes precedence.
As for locking, I thought that kind of stuff was pretty much reserved for situations in which the lynch choice is clear as day. Additionally, I really would like to hear from Dan before locking personally.
I feel like I’ve said my peace, and I don’t really have anything more to add to the discussion. I just want town to win at this point and if killing me makes that happen, I can take solace in the fact I did my part.
Yeah my thoughts still haven’t really changed with what’s been said. Even with Jaz’s points about the smoke around Jortles, I still think that definitively identifying Potent’s post as legit or false takes precedence.
As for locking, I thought that kind of stuff was pretty much reserved for situations in which the lynch choice is clear as day. Additionally, I really would like to hear from Dan before locking personally.
I’ve continued look at you, Kanye and Jaz. Im convinced that we should get an answer on the Potent post in Day 4 so we can have clearer minds in Day 5 if he was playing us.
You have to look at it from my perspective. At least you guys can have some doubt because there is a story that could make sense with Potent saving me in the Day 2 runoff. I dont necessarily agree that it does make much sense, but either way I know Im town. So I dont even have THAT to give me doubt.
This decision is clear as day for me based on the Potent post. If you removed the Potent post, I wouldnt be locking. There is still a chance that Dan is a victim of circumstance. But I can’t help that.
And then practically speaking, if nobody else has anything to offer up, I wouldnt mind either being lynched or lynching Dan today (Saturday). Its my Birthday Monday and Im celebrating that tomorrow. So my hopes are that this game isn’t distracting me during that. Of course, if there is a Day 5, im fully prepared to sink my face into my phone and ignore all of my friends and family.
