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Fuck. I've never chosen right in a Day 5. Was hoping I'd get whacked tbh. When choosing the whack, the Maf likely made their decision based in part on who they thought players would vote for. So since I've felt pretty strongly about Jortles, it makes me think if it's really Kanye and were banking on me not voting for him. Gonna need to look over things.
Fuck. I've never chosen right in a Day 5. Was hoping I'd get whacked tbh. When choosing the whack, the Maf likely made their decision based in part on who they thought players would vote for. So since I've felt pretty strongly about Jortles, it makes me think if it's really Kanye and were banking on me not voting for him. Gonna need to look over things.
This makes a lot of sense tbh. I've never made it to day 5 so I'm pretty stressed out. I guess it essentially comes down to a coin flip. Also, tbf my name was being brought up by everyone so if I really were mafia I don't think I would have lent any which way on anyone. Plus when I actually was mafia you sniffed me out really quickly. Anyway, starting my reread now. If you're town, good luck. If you're scum, bad luck?
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
Post by Silver Surfer on Jun 2, 2019 20:10:02 GMT -5
Preface: I am going to spend no time convincing you guys I am town. I am sure both of you can make a similar post I am about to do about me and that's fine. Town needs to look at every damning thing and decide who is worst. For example, I did switch off potent at one point and onto JTR. I have also "buddied" up to both of you at some point
The Case for Jaz Being Mafia
Perhaps the strongest point, Jaz voted for dan over Thor in D1, citing gut feeling and some confusing numbers to back up that feeling. This vote also gave Thor a revote in a life-deciding runoff
He really strung onto Jortles saying "this thing of ours" perhaps setting him up for future elimination, i.e. day 5 runoff where stress is high. He stuck to this feeling throughout and pretty much always stayed on jortles when it count. But did ultimately plant the seeds that led me to change my vote to dan. Not to mention, he did ask dan to "sacrifice" himself to help town. Killing two birds with one stone possibly.
First thing I'm noticing is that with the last two votes, SFA moved off of JTR, which isn't too big a deal considering that JTR was up to 3. However, JTR then, when choosing between SFA and Potent (or any player with no votes), he just Potent over SFA. Not necessarily indicative of anything, but worth noting.
Secondly, the point that I was waiting on JTR for, was that (prior to JTR's vote) only Dan voters are voting for Dan voters now and vice versa, but I had missed Potent's Thor vote when looking at things, so that point is wrong.
This is another example of Jaz providing a theory. In this case it was wrong. Perhaps he was just grasping at straws to try to "provide evidence" he is town.
He also openly admitted to wanting to try out the "fake message" tactic. Could have planted this post to say "Why would I have said I wanted to do it if I did it"
His last post does make sense though (Mafia whacking someone with the intention of leaving people who might not vote for them)
With this in mind, I don't see why mafia jaz would have left me. I have already mentioned I am fairly sold on jortles being town. So the only thing I can think of is that Jaz planted that post to get me to think that way. But also with this theory in mind it amkes sense for.......
The Case for Jortles Being Mafia
If Jortles is mafia it makes a lot of sense as to why he would keep me alive as I have my strongest town lean on him. But onto other points (That expand on this thought as well)
Still expanding on this, mafia Kanye leaving Jortles alive makes sense. Jortles has said he leans town on me and even said he was more suspicious of Jaz than me. However, Jortles has also mentioned he doesn't trust his Kanye instincts. I probably wouldn't have let a guy that isn't even fully set on his thoughts about me into the most stressful part of the game.
Jortles has the most posts, even more than me. Obviously he has been in danger of being killed twice now so that makes sense.
The most damning evidence (Same as Jaz), voted for Dan in day 1. However he cited NO REASON AT ALL. Not to mention, he also piggybacked on me saying that gut feeling is a bad reason. This is weird considering he didnt provide a reason at all.
Jortles has also buddied up to me a few times.
"I really like Kanyes post. Its especially cool that he referred to me as helpful."
"That post instantly gave me my best Town lean in this game (that being Kanye)."
Also he siad this
"So at the top of page 6, Kanye really kicks off a good amount of substantive conversation. Ideally, I would have liked to see Kanye go even further in that direction and be even more provocative. He worded everything in a way where he can come back to it and say "this was all just soft and I don't think that way anymore." If he had ruffled some feathers there I would have felt even stronger about him being Town.
Disclaimer: Mafia can do anything blah blah blah, Mafia kanye may have realized he was looking out of character if he didn't plant a large post by now. I end up going in circles in every Mafia game, but I'll just say again that I liked that Kanye post."
So I can say the same thing he said here. He is saying some strong things about me and then completely backtracks by again saying he liked my post.
He was really the only one that fully bought potent's was an honest mistake as well. Possibly pushing that narrative because it cleared him.
He has provided some pretty solid evidence as to why he wouldn't be teammates with potent. But also could just be talking points he already thought of such as "Why would mafia do a 1 for 1 trade off?" or "Why would I be the one that put the pressure onto potent?" He could have done those things to literally just have a defense.
Next we have more than a page of Jortles arguing with dan. I already said I think it was distracting to town because both had already made their points. Yet he went on and on and on. That is something that is hard to look over.
Jortles said it didn't make sense for Jaz to be mafia since jaz told him to go back and reread. However, I had also said the same thing. And now here we are with both people who told him to go back against him in the final round.
So either his instincts as to what makes someone mafia or not are wrong or he is mafia himself.
Post by Jake Jortles on Jun 2, 2019 22:19:44 GMT -5
Guys I havent read Kanyes post and im too drunk to put together a theory of why we are at day 5 right now. All I can do is ask the other Townie to not lock until I get a chance to defend myself and look at things. Awesome move by Potent.
Guys I havent read Kanyes post and im too drunk to put together a theory of why we are at day 5 right now. All I can do is ask the other Townie to not lock until I get a chance to defend myself and look at things. Awesome move by Potent.
Have a good night. Neither of us have voted yet so you're good. I'm waiting to say how everyone responds/what you two say about the other. Happy birthday!
Post by Jake Jortles on Jun 3, 2019 9:53:58 GMT -5
Honestly this might take me hours to sort through. This is how my birthday evening will be spent unless I decide to just ignore a good portion of my work day.
I do feel good about Dan being out of this picture even though he was Town. It will be nice to read through the game knowing Potent was making a move there.
Before diving into this, I'm just going to say that I'm probably going to end up embarrassed about this game no matter what happens (assuming we lose). Kanye is my kryptonite and I'm now super nervous I'll read him in the wrong direction.
Post by Jake Jortles on Jun 3, 2019 10:24:04 GMT -5
I guess I'll start by defending myself. Before getting my thoughts out on both of. Defenses are tough because everything can easily be chalked up to being purposefully planted, but I during Day 4 I was cited as the most likely choice to be lynched here on Day 5. We will lose if that happens, so I need to at least try to give the other Townie some pause. Incoming with my first angle of defense.
Given that Tainted voted for Thor and held it there, his odd comments throughout the game combined with his being whacked makes me lean towards the Mafia thinking he was Inspector, or at the very least they had suspicion of him and thought he could serve as a good misdirect if he wasn't Inspector. It's also possible that if Thor was Mafia, they wanted to whack the person who points the hardest at Thor, so that the whack leads to a dead end. Either way, I think it makes sense to look at the Dan voters. Jortles, SFA, MD, and myself. None of them have done too much that makes me have any suspicion of them, but I'll open by voting for Jortles. May change my vote if a reread gives me a lean in a certain direction.
Jortles is the right kill. Dan voters at the end of Day 1 were Thor, SFA, myself, Maddog, and Jortles. I'm town, apparently MD and SFA are as well. Even if SFA is lying, Maddog's still probably town because that would make the most sense from a lying Inspector. Lean towards SFA telling the truth though, like I said before.
Any man who must say “I am townie” is no true townie.
I kid, but in all fairness, based on Potent’s post, Dan is pretty much the only remaining player who wasn’t cleared as town (though Maddog was only sorta cleared indirectly).
The issue is I’m still really not confident about Potent’s mistake being a real mistake. And for that reason, I’m honestly not sure about anyone lol.
Uhhh yourself, Kanye, me, Jortles are all uncleared...Maddog was cleared directly by SFA. You're quite wrong here.
I'm saying that we were cleared if you're taking Potent's slip-up as legitimate. We were all (jortles, kanye, you, myself) named as possible whacks. So unless mafia was discussing offing their own, Potent suggested we are all town.
But again, I don't personally think any of us in that post were cleared because I'm not convinced it was a real mistake.
OOOOOOOhhhhh okay, thanks for clarifying.
Right now I'm suspicious of Jortles more than anyone, but I also think Agar or Kanye could be quietly coasting by. Will need to do a reread and gather some thoughts before voting.
If Potent's mistake post was 100% legitimate, then Dan is Mafia. I feel like that's rather open and shut at this point, given that Potent mentioned every living player except Dan as being town.
However, I think that's a little too clean.
I'm wont to believe that Potent was intentionally trying to mislead us, which (similar to Dan) I'm grumpy about because it's something that I had wanted to do also. But apparently Maddog had also thought of the idea, so it probably wouldn't have worked anyway with so many people having considered it. But I digress. If Potent's mistake post was a fake, I think there are a couple different scenarios:
SFA was Mafia, and they whacked him to get the town to focus on Dan/Jortles, allowing Agar/Kanye to slip by relatively easily. However, if this is the case, I believe that A) SFA and Potent will have earned their win if they end up winning, and B) y'all can handle that in Day 5, please just whack me. So I'm not really going to entertain it.
And as much as Potent loves distancing, I don't think Thor/Dan/Potent would have allowed two Mafia to end up in the final D1 runoff. Manipulating perception is important as Mafia but it's still a numbers game. You don't want to start the game guaranteed to be down one. And similar to above, if they did that and still end up winning, they've earned it. Lastly, if Potent's post was fake - which I think it is - it would lead us directly to Dan, as Jortles is arguing. So if Mafia Potent wants to lead us to Dan, it probably means that Dan is town.
If Agar or Kanye are the third, they're doing a good job of laying low. Kanye's posts feel very genuine to me. He did move off of Potent and onto JTR at one point, but that's bound to happen for blind townies. Agar is hard to read. I feel like he hasn't contributed a whole lot, but nothing really sticks out to me either.
As for Jortles (and if you're reading this with bated breath to see if I'm going to vote for you - yes I am, you can breathe now), there was an interaction between him and Potent early in Day 2 I believe that I called out as sounding contrived. Which is what happens when you're trying to invent reasons to throw shade on your fellow Mafia. And my post regarding Jortles' "this thing of ours" phrasing was followed by Potent defending him. There's just a lot of smoke around Jortles, and I think it's warranted. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and we'll march on to Day 5 if there are no further switches.
Post by Jake Jortles on Jun 3, 2019 10:36:16 GMT -5
Building off what Jaz said... again, anything can be planted. But whoever the other Townie is should really reflect on how likely it would be for me to keep Jaz around this long if I was Mafia. Please read through those posts that go all the way back to Day 2.
I will bring up a ton of Agar posts after lunch that suggest he would have been a much better choice for Mafia Jortles to keep around.
Just checking in to say that I'm still here and active, just haven't had the chance to sit down and type up anything comprehensive. I think a straightforward game points to Jortles still, but I'm not discounting the possibility the Mafia is SFA/Potent/Kanye and they took a risk in hoping Tainted was inspector.
Post by Silver Surfer on Jun 3, 2019 11:12:29 GMT -5
I wholeheartedly believe SFA was inspector and Thor/Potent are the other two Mafia. Both of you voted for Dan which would be the 2-1 split. Just deciding who that 1 would be is the decision.
Also to jortles point about whacking agar. I think agars whack points to all of us. I think you could find cases of agar being both suspicious and not suspicious of all 3 of us.
Post by Silver Surfer on Jun 3, 2019 11:14:42 GMT -5
Also I don't really see the point of being defensive when no one is really attacking you. I'd rather you use your energy to build cases against us to weigh the evidence. Anything at this point can be refuted so defenses won't really do much
If it were up to me, we would consider throwing the 2 least impactful players so far into the runoff along with the person or two we think the whack implicates for D2R1.
I like this plan. I feel like mafia’s probably content with how things are going right now, and just hanging back. If we take this approach, it either forces mafia to be more active and “helpful” (and thus provides more content for us to work with) *or*, if they try and just keep quiet, we get rid of them as a penalty for lack of contribution.
That or Jortles is mafia trying to manipulate this game because he and his fellow mafia are already major contributors so far, but idk I don’t really get that vibe.
Just did a re-read. I had initially commented on Jortles' idea that it'd be a good idea to focus on those who haven't really been contributing and throw them in the run-off. I still think that's a good idea. Moreover, though Potent and JTR were similar in basically just voting and not explaining those votes, JTR went on doing that without getting called out for whatever reason. I will say, though, that I still think it's very possible that Jortles presented this strategy as mafia trying to manipulate the game, and that the mafia members were/are actually significant contributors to the game thus far.
Other notes: - SFA reads as towny as anyone atm. Transparency (i.e., acknowledging when he overlooks things/makes mistakes *without* getting called out first), tons of input contribution, etc. However, this could just as well be him as mafia doing a really good job of coming across as helpful. Kanye did, however, note that his play style was different right now than it was when they were mafia together. Idk. I still don’t feel 100% confident either way though, obviously. - MD hasn’t contributed all that much in a while, though a lot of his early posts provided some valuable information despite being brief (e.g., which players slipped out of runoffs). My experience with him playing as a special role, whether it be mafia or inspector, is that he’s definitely more engaged from the jump than he has been. Maybe he’s taking a new approach, but idk. I just don’t get the vibe he’s trying to drive the game in any way outside of providing a few thoughts here and there, so that bodes well for him as town as well in my mind. - Tainted’s strategy isn’t any less weird upon re-read lol. I really hope he wasn’t inspector, but if he was, his only hints were towards Potent and Kanye (mostly Potent). Honestly though he was probably just town who didn’t feel like playing anymore lmao. - I'm pretty neutral on most everyone else. As a side note, I think it would be funny if Jortles and Kanye were mafia together with how they always interact in these games (how much they go back and forth, and particularly in this game, with Jortles constantly stating that he’s bad at reading Kanye and expressing discomfort when Kanye doesn’t frustrate him lmao). I have no significant reason to think this will happen, but yeah, I’d laugh if it turned out to be the case.
Additional note - pretty sure Jortles was the primary advocate for getting Potent in the runoff. That could be distancing but honestly comes across more as them not being teammates imo.
Uhhh yourself, Kanye, me, Jortles are all uncleared...Maddog was cleared directly by SFA. You're quite wrong here.
I'm saying that we were cleared if you're taking Potent's slip-up as legitimate. We were all (jortles, kanye, you, myself) named as possible whacks. So unless mafia was discussing offing their own, Potent suggested we are all town.
But again, I don't personally think any of us in that post were cleared because I'm not convinced it was a real mistake.
My biggest fear at this point is that there are still 2 mafia alive. I'm pretty confident that one of Dan/Jortles is mafia, and if they're alone, then this is an easily winnable situation. If we vote out Dan now, and the game continues, then we can just take out Jortles next round (and vice-versa). However, if there are two left, and someone is just coasting right now, then things get more complicated.
If someone is coasting, then that would essentially confirm that Potent's mistake was a fraud. As stated earlier, Potent's post would hypothetically clear everyone left except for Dan (so for two mafia to be left, the mistake would have to have been a lie). I'm gonna try to do some puzzle-solving in my head, but idk what the best approach would be to account for this possibility. Without fully delving into it though, my instinct is that lynching Jortles would be the best move. If two of the "town" from Potent's post were actually mafia, Jortles seems like the most likely to be one of those two because he was in the run-off when Potent posted. Then, based on mafia's next whack (if the game continues), then it may be easier to deduce whether it was just Dan on his own all along, or if it was another person whose been coasting.
By contrast, if we just lynch Dan, and it turns out that there are indeed two mafia remaining (both "cleared" by Potent), we lose. Like I said though, I need to give this more thought.
Actually, now that I think of it, going for Dan first makes more sense. If the game continues, that pretty much confirms Potent was lying, and we can go from there. I will say though that there's still a possibility that Tainted was inspector (& if this is the case, we were screwed from the jump). From there, both Potent and SFA could have lied to basically open up the door for a third mafia to coast. Potent lies first to try and draw out the real inspector if they're still alive, and then when nothing happens and the coast is seemingly clear, SFA lies. SFA clears a legit town member, but also reveals a false given name who isn't around to defend themselves.
It would be an extremely risky game plan, but could work.
That all being said, if they did that, more power to them. Moreover, if that's what they did, then this will go to a Day 5 regardless. May as well go with the safest course of action, which like I said, I think is lynching Dan. We can at least weed out one of the lies this way.
I still stand by the idea that lynching Dan is the safest option for this round, by far. If Potent really just fucked up, we win. If he lied, well then at least we will have sorted that out once and for all going into the final day.
If we lynch Jortles, and the game continues, we'll have a day 5 in which we're still debating whether Potent lied, and that just makes things way too messy imo.
Dan, if you're town, you should honestly recognize this is the best option. I get that you won't vote for yourself, but it's hard to deny that Potent has made it to where it's going to be damn near impossible for you to convince us you're town UNLESS we get 100% confirmation that Potent's post was staged. A day 5 with you in it (again, if you're town) is basically destined for a Town loss.
Since I know I'm Town, I know that a day 5 with me in it is also a Town loss.
With that said, I personally need to make sure I'm willing to bet the game on the mafia being Dan. Because if I'm alive in Day 5, I won't be able to convince anyone of anything. I haven't even looked into other options enough.
On the flip side, it would be nice to clear up the Potent thing by eliminating Dan. It will be hanging in the back of everyone's minds until he is gone.
I disagree, because although it may implicate you the most, Potent's mistake being false basically opens it up to where all of us who were "cleared" by Potent are no longer assumed town. That could at least open things up for discussion a lot more than they would were Dan still in the game. Basically, if you're both town, neither of you in a day 5 is ideal. But, Dan in a day 5 is a much steeper mountain to climb.
Also I don't really see the point of being defensive when no one is really attacking you. I'd rather you use your energy to build cases against us to weigh the evidence. Anything at this point can be refuted so defenses won't really do much
I absolutely will build cases for both of you and then decide which one I find more convincing.
It seems like I am totally alone in believing that defense is an important part of this game. It should be more respected as an art around here, in my opinion. If I could convince the other Townie that I am Town, that would mean that Town will win the game. I really don't understand why I'm on an island with this.
Now, I will agree that building the cases for you two is more important, and I plan to spend much more time doing that today.
My final note on "who Jortles would keep around": I left out a significant amount of posts where Agar was suspicious of me. And I left out a post or two where Jaz defended me. I just want to get that out there so I'm not looking shady. However, the overarching point remains true. If I was Mafia, I would have truly believed that a day 5 with Agar and Kanye would have given me a punchers chance at convincing one of the two that I was Town.
Defenses to your case points that you outlined in your large post.
1. I voted for Dan out of the gate. I should have probably explained why I never switched off of Dan, but that isn't always done in these games. I agree that we should begin to explain why we aren't switching off of our D1R1 votes more often, but it isn't hypocritical for me to not explain yet complain about gut feeling because on the first page of the game you literally have absolutely nothing to go on.
2. My honest thoughts about the game you were playing at the time resulted in me buddying up to you. I think our history should give you reason to doubt that I would insincerely buddy up to you regardless of role. In my first ever game, as Mafia, I was taking digs at you. I told you that I was weary of you not frustrating me in this game. I still kind of am concerned about that. But you just legitimately have been good in this game and I meant everything I said about that post. It doesn't mean my assessment was correct. Dan didn't like my way of thinking about it for example, but it was truly the way I felt nonetheless.
3. I bought Potent's mistake because the only way it sort of made sense to me as a fake would be in a scenario where I was Mafia with him. Since I know I'm Town, it made no sense to me. Nobody has come up with a convincing theory for a move implicating someone else. I have a story now for how the move could make sense for Jaz, and maybe on for you. I will be presenting those ideas soon. Both of those scenarios seemed rather unlikely to me until now, and it seemed more likely that Potent made an honest mistake. That ended up being wrong, and I admit that I was wrong about it. When Pablo started up Day 5, it felt like I was watching an awesome movie with an unexpected twist during the climax. This has definitely been the most interesting game of Mafia that I've played.
4. I still think that voting out Dan was the best move. If this Day 5 was you, Jaz Dan, I don't think you guys would have lynched someone else and Town would have certainly lost. It is good to have a clear mind and know that Potent was lying as we make this final decision.
5. Finally, your thing about you and Jaz wanting us to revisit more of the different parts of the story for this game... you say my instincts about who is Mafia is wrong or I'm Mafia. Well fuck yes my instincts have been wrong lol. I got just some of that classic Zolah tunnel vision with Dan, and I feel a lot of regret about that... however I can rest easier with this one as opposed to 117 since I still believe that confirming that Potent's post was a move was the best way to go on Day 4.
Post by Jake Jortles on Jun 3, 2019 11:50:54 GMT -5
Actually, I should take one extra moment to just note that my tunnel vision on Dan will probably end up costing the Town this game. So I'll just apologize to all of the dead Town and whoever the remaining Townie is. I can't help that Potent's move frames me, but the tunnel vision was in my control, and I fucked up massively.
Also I don't really see the point of being defensive when no one is really attacking you. I'd rather you use your energy to build cases against us to weigh the evidence. Anything at this point can be refuted so defenses won't really do much
I absolutely will build cases for both of you and then decide which one I find more convincing.
It seems like I am totally alone in believing that defense is an important part of this game. It should be more respected as an art around here, in my opinion. If I could convince the other Townie that I am Town, that would mean that Town will win the game. I really don't understand why I'm on an island with this.
Now, I will agree that building the cases for you two is more important, and I plan to spend much more time doing that today.
My final note on "who Jortles would keep around": I left out a significant amount of posts where Agar was suspicious of me. And I left out a post or two where Jaz defended me. I just want to get that out there so I'm not looking shady. However, the overarching point remains true. If I was Mafia, I would have truly believed that a day 5 with Agar and Kanye would have given me a punchers chance at convincing one of the two that I was Town.
Defenses to your case points that you outlined in your large post.
1. I voted for Dan out of the gate. I should have probably explained why I never switched off of Dan, but that isn't always done in these games. I agree that we should begin to explain why we aren't switching off of our D1R1 votes more often, but it isn't hypocritical for me to not explain yet complain about gut feeling because on the first page of the game you literally have absolutely nothing to go on.
2. My honest thoughts about the game you were playing at the time resulted in me buddying up to you. I think our history should give you reason to doubt that I would insincerely buddy up to you regardless of role. In my first ever game, as Mafia, I was taking digs at you. I told you that I was weary of you not frustrating me in this game. I still kind of am concerned about that. But you just legitimately have been good in this game and I meant everything I said about that post. It doesn't mean my assessment was correct. Dan didn't like my way of thinking about it for example, but it was truly the way I felt nonetheless.
3. I bought Potent's mistake because the only way it sort of made sense to me as a fake would be in a scenario where I was Mafia with him. Since I know I'm Town, it made no sense to me. Nobody has come up with a convincing theory for a move implicating someone else. I have a story now for how the move could make sense for Jaz, and maybe on for you. I will be presenting those ideas soon. Both of those scenarios seemed rather unlikely to me until now, and it seemed more likely that Potent made an honest mistake. That ended up being wrong, and I admit that I was wrong about it. When Pablo started up Day 5, it felt like I was watching an awesome movie with an unexpected twist during the climax. This has definitely been the most interesting game of Mafia that I've played.
4. I still think that voting out Dan was the best move. If this Day 5 was you, Jaz Dan, I don't think you guys would have lynched someone else and Town would have certainly lost. It is good to have a clear mind and know that Potent was lying as we make this final decision.
5. Finally, your thing about you and Jaz wanting us to revisit more of the different parts of the story for this game... you say my instincts about who is Mafia is wrong or I'm Mafia. Well fuck yes my instincts have been wrong lol. I got just some of that classic Zolah tunnel vision with Dan, and I feel a lot of regret about that... however I can rest easier with this one as opposed to 117 since I still believe that confirming that Potent's post was a move was the best way to go on Day 4.
Ok... on to building cases.
This is the kind of defense that is warranted I believe. I just don't like defenses when they come from nowhere, they look fishy Imo. These are all great responses to things I have raised btw, so thank you
and i generally don't like this because it unevens the voting. thor gets his vote back now, and we don't get new votes from people not involved in the runoff.
(This is not a reasoning or justification for my recent vote switch; all of this I'm just thinking of right now)
Some ideas regarding revoters:
It's typical (rote, uninteresting) strategy in runoffs to have as few going-forward revoters as possible, with the usual reasoning being that it is more of a given where those votes will go (because they won't be voting for themselves), therefore we get less overall information. While that certainly can be the case, I don't think it's a maxim that should be assumed.
When there are three voters choosing between two candidates (neither of which are either of the three voters), the same voting pattern happens almost every time. Person 1 votes. Person 2 votes opposite to "even it up". Then the onus is on person 3 to choose who dies (this is all assuming no other vote switches, of course). This essentially only gives us information on Person 3. I'll describe some scenarios.
If there are two (or three, I guess) Mafia revoters and neither of the candidates are Mafia, they two Maf can pretty much vote wherever, whenever. The end result will be a dead townie and we'll go on with no info on Mafia aside from possible splits. If there are two Mafia revoters and one candidate is Mafia, the first Mafia revoter can vote first, then they both wait for Person 2 (Townie) to even it up, then Person 3 (Mafia) can make the kill. Or, they can both wait for the Townie to vote first, then one evens up and the other kills the townie. In either scenario, the Mafia have the power and the town gets no info. The important thing to remember though is that it doesn't matter who votes who for the first two voters. In this scenario, we only get concrete info from the third voter. Luckily we aren't often in that hopeless of a scenario, with two Mafia revoters. Let's move on.
Let's say there is ONE Mafia revoter and both candidates are townies. Again, if the Mafia votes first or second, it doesn't matter. A townie dies and the only info we get is splits. Same as above. Similarly, if both candidates are Mafia, we get no info regardless of who the revoters are, but it means we're getting a Mafia out, so that's fine. And if one candidate is Mafia and all three voters are townies, again we get no information from the revoters and the Mafia can just sit tight.
The only scenario where having three revoters, none of whom are in the runoff, gives us more info on the revoters is when there is one Mafia candidate and one Mafia revoter. This is the only scenario in which a Mafia revoter is forced to act a certain way because of forces outside of Mafia control. Mr. Mafia Revoter can either vote first (for either their partner or the Townie), and leave fate into the hands of the other two townies, vote second to even it up and leave fate up to the third, or waits to vote third and show some skin by either voting for the townie, giving info, or voting for their partner and hoping for a switch. Or the third partner could switch, but that could potentially implicate all three Mafia in one move.
Summary A: When there are three revoters and they are voting between two people who aren't them, the only scenario that actually gives us info is the one in which there is one Mafia in the runoff and one Mafia revoter. In all other scenarios it's a wash because the Mafia can either manipulate the votes or hide in the Person 2 slot and vote for whoever.
NOW let's say we have the current example. If my vote switch holds, the revoters will be Thor, Maddog, and JTR, who are choosing between Thor and Dan.
Thor is given. THIS IS VALUABLE, not unhelpful as our previous thinking has reasoned. With Thor's vote being a given, now instead of only one person having power and being able to give us info (Person 3), we get info from both Person 2 and Person 3. Thor's vote, regardless of when he actually votes, is already known. He's basically an automatic Person 1. Except now Person 2 can't hide by voting for Dan. Here's why (sorry, more scenarios):
If Thor is Mafia and Dan is Town If there is one Mafia revoter other than Thor, they are more or less forced to vote for Dan, regardless of when they vote. (If they want to keep Thor alive, at least) If all three revoters are Mafia, one of the two not-Thors still needs to vote for Dan. Again, doesn't matter when. If only Thor is Mafia out of the three revoters, then we're not getting any info anyway (just like we wouldn't if Thor wasn't revoting and all three were townies). But we still have a 50/50 chance of getting a Maf.
If Thor is Town and Dan is Mafia If either Maddog or JTR is Mafia, one of them has to vote for Thor to keep Dan alive. If they are both Mafia, one of them has to vote for Thor to keep Dan alive. If neither MD or JTR are Mafia, then we have no info but 50/50 chance.
So many more scenarios in which the Mafia are forced to act a certain way. The votes of JTR and Maddog become more telling, and their relationship to Dan becomes more important also.
And so on and so forth. In none of these scenarios can Person 2 throw their vote away to even it up, because Thor's vote being a given makes both of the other two votes more meaningful
I hope I explained that well enough. I probably didn't because sometimes I come to conclusions in non-straightforward ways but this just FEELS right, man.
Another way to look at it. Zoom out of Mafia for a bit.
If between the candidates and revoters there are 5 individuals (X, Y, A, B, and C), there are the following ten relationships: XY XA XB XC YA YB YC AB AC BC
If one of the candidates is a revoter, there are only 4 individuals (X, Y, A, B). Here there are only six relationships to figure out: XY XA XB YA YB AB
The votes become more meaningful because if the votes have any meaning them, there are fewer relationships to choose from. Fewer things to try to figure out, fewer ways to spin things.
This multiplies obviously because there are 11 players, not five so it's more complicated than that, but it's easier to see my point if we just look at the people involved.
Jaz gives Thor a re-vote and then goes to lengths to defend it. Kanye voted for Thor and raised a lot of suspicion around Potent. Jaz never voted for Thor or Potent. None of this is going to be nail in the coffin stuff, but it's a difference worth noting at this point.
This round is scheduled to end on Wednesday, May 29th at 6 P.M. EST
I'm not saying that this is what happened, but if SFA and Potent are Mafia together, they did a wonderful job of keeping Potent alive, and now that I see it I wish I or someone else had made an additional move. If I'm them two (regardless if Thor is the third or not), I can look at the votes on Potent and see how we're in the position to both save him by making the exact moves they made. Potent's "I'm wary of voting with SFA and Maddog" post and SFA's "oh, maybe I really should have voted for Potent" easily serves as subtle distancing while their actual moves keep Potent from going forward and gives the town info from only one person (Maddog).
The case for Jaz being Mafia is one that assumes that Jaz planted this baby right here. It is possible that Jaz and Potent were down 1 mafia member and were pretty sure that SFA was Inspector. So, in an attempt to smoke out SFA, they had Jaz post this so Potent could say "Jaz is on to us" which helps to frame SFA. That would in turn force him to reveal as Inspector and they might get a double win if the group doesn't believe him because he was revealing out of desperation. It's really difficult to see the reasoning that they would feel the need to what they did on Day 2. SFA hadn't revealed yet, and I personally didn't notice that he was about to. Maybe they saw something I didn't, so it will be important to analyze SFA's game as well. But in this scenario, why wouldn't Jaz and Potent just wait until the Night and whack SFA? Another concern about this line of thinking is that Jaz switched from Tainted to Danbob in Day 1. Why did he save who he thought was Inspector? That's no deal-breaker though.
Tbf I've wanted to do that "fake mistake" thing to trick people before so idk what to think
Me too, and I remember when I proposed it before I was Mafia with Thor and someone else. Right now my best guess is that Potent intentionally switched to vote off his own teammate Thor because he likes to do that sort of thing, and now he's trying to sow confusion - which honestly could still mean that he's teammates with SFA. It wouldn't be the most ridiculous thing in the world to accidentally post in the main thread instead of Mafia chat - it's happened before - but Potent is a little more discerning so I don't believe that's 100% what's happening here. So honestly I feel a little bit better about SFA because of it.
sorry i've been mia, made those first couple of posts before i left for work...
-regarding the fake pm slip, yeah the idea basically is that mafia, could just throw a random town name in their slip up and it forces the rest of town to question it. one of those you can only trust a liar to tell the truth about lying conundrums. regarding this slip up, it seems legit, potent is under no reallll pressure, and unless the third is Jortles/JTR it wouldn't have mattered this round, we still didn't have a reveal at that point, maybe it's just jumping the gun, but it seemed like a classic, it's 9 am and i fucked up move.
-i didn't really want to say anything because I didn't really know, but i was confident in some combo of Jaz/Dan/SFA, and then the potent chatter up to the slip made me feel fine with him as mafia as well. if we for sure have Thor/Potent/?? I'll probably pull back on that at some point.
-SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal i believe you, but if you had already guessed me, why did you set it up so i'd get this last vote here? seems like a waste, i guess retrospect you don't know potents role at this point, and me being town means mafia wouldn't be steering that ship, but idk, should have given that to someone else. bothered me then, bothers me now.
These two are contradictory. Potent's post said "Jaz is onto us". The "us" in that would refer to Potent and SFA, given that they are who I had been most recently referring to.
In this case, I think it was important for Jaz to suggest that it had to be "one or the other." He didn't flat out suggest that SFA was lying, but he may have been wanting some people to take the other side by clarifying this thinking for everyone. If SFA had revealed more important information, I wonder if Jaz would have sewn more doubt about his reveal. Once he said a dead person was mafia and cleared Maddog, there would have been no reason to fight it in either direction.
He also did a lot of work to discredit Potent's post as being a legit fuck up. I actually don't think that matters here. In this case, it would have helped for everyone to believe the post at face value, but the main point was to out SFA.
I thought it was slightly interesting that Jaz took a while to lock on Potent, but it doesn't really matter.
I also found Jaz's vote for me last round to be interesting. Kanye and Agar seemed to pretty easily understand the consequences of keeping Dan around for Day 5. He'd be a guaranteed lynch. Even more-so than me. Keeping Dan around for Day 5 would have been the easiest Path to Mafia Jaz victory. So he voted along that path.
The whack of Agar doesn't give me much between you two. I think this is the group that both of you would want for Day 5, but its not equal. It is more clear to me that Kanye would want this exact Day than Jaz. Jaz just saw Kanye switch his vote from me to Dan. I almost wonder if he would worry about me having a chance to sway Kanye. But Agar was also pro-jortles by comparison to some others, so I think a Mafia Jaz Night 4 whack decision was more or less a coin flip... or a reason that I haven't been able to identify yet. Kanye, on the other hand, would clearly want Jaz to be here with us due to the posts I pulled up earlier that show Jaz being suspicious of me all game long.
In self defense, I have to come back and restate that the whack damages the case of me being Mafia more than anything. You'd be assuming that I wanted to keep around the person that is most suspicious of me just so I could plant this defense and sway Kanye. I guess that would make sense, but I think anyone would like to avoid the Golden State Warriors in the finals so to speak - and I mean that as no offence to Kanye or Agar. And I also don't want to blow up Jaz's ego too much lol.
The typical "why would Mafia let Jaz stick around" isn't as relevant for this game just since he was so clearly the most anti-Jortles. It makes perfect sense why Kanye would let him stick around. However, I actually thought it would have made sense to whack Jaz on Night 3 instead of Maddog. But there could be competing theories on that and it doesn't give me anything. Maddog was the common sense whack.
I'm going to take a look at Kanye next. I'm hungover as fuck and my brain feels a little broken right now. I'm going down paths of thought and just literally hitting mental roadblocks that I usually wouldn't. I'm not done looking into Jaz, but these are my initial thoughts.
Just checking in to say that I'm still here and active, just haven't had the chance to sit down and type up anything comprehensive. I think a straightforward game points to Jortles still, but I'm not discounting the possibility the Mafia is SFA/Potent/Kanye and they took a risk in hoping Tainted was inspector.
Have you ruled out Thor / Potent / Kanye? Because Kanye was voting Thor, presumably?
I think it's Jortles. There are other possibilities but this is most straightforward. Not locked but I'll be satisfied with this vote regardless of who wins.
One thing still giving me pause though is that after pablo announced the beginning of Night, Kanye had been online by the time Day was announced, but Jortles hadn't. Jortles' last login was before Night started. Given that a living Mafia has to submit the whack, this means that either Jortles submitted the whack early (quite probable since he knew he was going out), or it was Kanye. Or Jortles just did it from his phone and it didn't get recorded on ProBoards. Hmmmm.
One thing still giving me pause though is that after pablo announced the beginning of Night, Kanye had been online by the time Day was announced, but Jortles hadn't. Jortles' last login was before Night started. Given that a living Mafia has to submit the whack, this means that either Jortles submitted the whack early (quite probable since he knew he was going out), or it was Kanye. Or Jortles just did it from his phone and it didn't get recorded on ProBoards. Hmmmm.
Wish I would have looked into this information for you. Doesn't help me to only know Kanye's situation.
I'm having trouble building a more logical case for Kanye than you. Both of you would have probably been equally likely to pull that move off with Potent and Thor or Potent and SFA. I did mention in Day 4 that Kanye had more of a "mafia stench" about him than you do. I'm probably going to need to search my gut for why that would be so. I really hope I can uncover something interesting because at this moment I think Kanye will just vote with you and the Town will lose.
I also can't use the "which loss would I be more embarrassed about" train of thought for this. Either Mafia victory would be extremely respectable and impressive. I am going to have to probably do another full read through and find new ways to think about this and make sure I'm not missing anything.
Can you clarify: Is your reasoning for voting for me is because I voted for Dan Day 1 and that Potent saving me with his move makes the most sense to you?
Post by Silver Surfer on Jun 3, 2019 16:00:35 GMT -5
I'm at work until 9:30 and have been since 2 if either of you are gonna ask why I'm quiet especially since apparently we're looking at when people were online now
I don't want you guys to be all like "Kanye was on and didn't say anything"
So I've read your posts and will respond on my break
My main reasons for voting for you is you being a Dan voter at the end of Day 1, pushing to vote out Dan last Day (makes it seem like you were just trying to save your own skin), believing that Potent's post was legit even though now we know it's not, and an indefinable aura of bullshittery that I get from your posts.
I could end up moving to Kanye, but it probably won't have anything to do with anything you or Kanye say this round. Because it's also not escaped me that he's had exactly one vote this entire game, which is odd in and of itself.
