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I understand this from your point of view. Knowing I’m town though it certainly seems like we have townies in the runoff. Unless mafia is keeping quiet and hoping town doesn’t vote the mafia in the runoff off.
This is understandable. If I were in this runoff, I'd likely view this similar to you. I hate being in situation where I'm innocent and there doesn't seem to be much attention being paid to the current situation(lack of participation, etc.)
You could totally be right and it's all townies. Something just seems off here but maybe it's because I haven't played as much recently(like 2 of the last 6). I just feel this game started a lot quieter than the current norm, so there could be something there.
It definitely has been a lot different feel. This is the most quiet day one in a while. If your gut is correct, what could possibly be off? What scenarios could be the reason this day is so quiet?
This is understandable. If I were in this runoff, I'd likely view this similar to you. I hate being in situation where I'm innocent and there doesn't seem to be much attention being paid to the current situation(lack of participation, etc.)
You could totally be right and it's all townies. Something just seems off here but maybe it's because I haven't played as much recently(like 2 of the last 6). I just feel this game started a lot quieter than the current norm, so there could be something there.
It definitely has been a lot different feel. This is the most quiet day one in a while. If your gut is correct, what could possibly be off? What scenarios could be the reason this day is so quiet?
I need to read over everything and see if I notice anything because I don't rightly know. It could honestly be nothing and it's just one of those games where no conversations/arguments took off or whatever it is that causes a game to be uneventful.
Maddog brought up that the mafia sometimes are the ones that take advantage of the quietness because the townies get antsy. There could be truth to that. They could be relying on town to make moves for them. We did a good bit the last time I was mafia. Just kind of allowed the town to talk themselves out of being right. Even if there is truth to this scenario I'm not sure we have any way of mining info out at that at the moment.
All I know is, something is fishy when someone gives a totally bullshit reason to vote for someone and then another person hops on that bullshit train and stacks
(This is not a reasoning or justification for my recent vote switch; all of this I'm just thinking of right now)
Some ideas regarding revoters:
It's typical (rote, uninteresting) strategy in runoffs to have as few going-forward revoters as possible, with the usual reasoning being that it is more of a given where those votes will go (because they won't be voting for themselves), therefore we get less overall information. While that certainly can be the case, I don't think it's a maxim that should be assumed.
When there are three voters choosing between two candidates (neither of which are either of the three voters), the same voting pattern happens almost every time. Person 1 votes. Person 2 votes opposite to "even it up". Then the onus is on person 3 to choose who dies (this is all assuming no other vote switches, of course). This essentially only gives us information on Person 3. I'll describe some scenarios.
If there are two (or three, I guess) Mafia revoters and neither of the candidates are Mafia, they two Maf can pretty much vote wherever, whenever. The end result will be a dead townie and we'll go on with no info on Mafia aside from possible splits. If there are two Mafia revoters and one candidate is Mafia, the first Mafia revoter can vote first, then they both wait for Person 2 (Townie) to even it up, then Person 3 (Mafia) can make the kill. Or, they can both wait for the Townie to vote first, then one evens up and the other kills the townie. In either scenario, the Mafia have the power and the town gets no info. The important thing to remember though is that it doesn't matter who votes who for the first two voters. In this scenario, we only get concrete info from the third voter. Luckily we aren't often in that hopeless of a scenario, with two Mafia revoters. Let's move on.
Let's say there is ONE Mafia revoter and both candidates are townies. Again, if the Mafia votes first or second, it doesn't matter. A townie dies and the only info we get is splits. Same as above. Similarly, if both candidates are Mafia, we get no info regardless of who the revoters are, but it means we're getting a Mafia out, so that's fine. And if one candidate is Mafia and all three voters are townies, again we get no information from the revoters and the Mafia can just sit tight.
The only scenario where having three revoters, none of whom are in the runoff, gives us more info on the revoters is when there is one Mafia candidate and one Mafia revoter. This is the only scenario in which a Mafia revoter is forced to act a certain way because of forces outside of Mafia control. Mr. Mafia Revoter can either vote first (for either their partner or the Townie), and leave fate into the hands of the other two townies, vote second to even it up and leave fate up to the third, or waits to vote third and show some skin by either voting for the townie, giving info, or voting for their partner and hoping for a switch. Or the third partner could switch, but that could potentially implicate all three Mafia in one move.
Summary A: When there are three revoters and they are voting between two people who aren't them, the only scenario that actually gives us info is the one in which there is one Mafia in the runoff and one Mafia revoter. In all other scenarios it's a wash because the Mafia can either manipulate the votes or hide in the Person 2 slot and vote for whoever.
NOW let's say we have the current example. If my vote switch holds, the revoters will be Thor, Maddog, and JTR, who are choosing between Thor and Dan.
Thor is given. THIS IS VALUABLE, not unhelpful as our previous thinking has reasoned. With Thor's vote being a given, now instead of only one person having power and being able to give us info (Person 3), we get info from both Person 2 and Person 3. Thor's vote, regardless of when he actually votes, is already known. He's basically an automatic Person 1. Except now Person 2 can't hide by voting for Dan. Here's why (sorry, more scenarios):
If Thor is Mafia and Dan is Town If there is one Mafia revoter other than Thor, they are more or less forced to vote for Dan, regardless of when they vote. (If they want to keep Thor alive, at least) If all three revoters are Mafia, one of the two not-Thors still needs to vote for Dan. Again, doesn't matter when. If only Thor is Mafia out of the three revoters, then we're not getting any info anyway (just like we wouldn't if Thor wasn't revoting and all three were townies). But we still have a 50/50 chance of getting a Maf.
If Thor is Town and Dan is Mafia If either Maddog or JTR is Mafia, one of them has to vote for Thor to keep Dan alive. If they are both Mafia, one of them has to vote for Thor to keep Dan alive. If neither MD or JTR are Mafia, then we have no info but 50/50 chance.
So many more scenarios in which the Mafia are forced to act a certain way. The votes of JTR and Maddog become more telling, and their relationship to Dan becomes more important also.
And so on and so forth. In none of these scenarios can Person 2 throw their vote away to even it up, because Thor's vote being a given makes both of the other two votes more meaningful
I hope I explained that well enough. I probably didn't because sometimes I come to conclusions in non-straightforward ways but this just FEELS right, man.
Another way to look at it. Zoom out of Mafia for a bit.
If between the candidates and revoters there are 5 individuals (X, Y, A, B, and C), there are the following ten relationships: XY XA XB XC YA YB YC AB AC BC
If one of the candidates is a revoter, there are only 4 individuals (X, Y, A, B). Here there are only six relationships to figure out: XY XA XB YA YB AB
The votes become more meaningful because if the votes have any meaning them, there are fewer relationships to choose from. Fewer things to try to figure out, fewer ways to spin things.
This multiplies obviously because there are 11 players, not five so it's more complicated than that, but it's easier to see my point if we just look at the people involved.
Post by piggy pablo on May 23, 2019 22:13:12 GMT -5
As the current round is going to be very long and also end at Noon, I'm going to give a heads up that the first Night round will last six hours. Special roles will have all weekend to mull their decisions leading up to Night, and we'll be able to pick play back up at a good Day start/stop time of 6 P.M. EST. If this is a particularly eventful weekend and makes your choices hard, I apologize, but I want to let you know now.
I've noted SFA sticking his neck out for agar as strange. It seems out of character, but also I've only played with him as mafia so thats good
I've never been shy about speaking about what's going on in the game, so I wouldn't say that's out of character really. Although, I don't really consider your example "sticking my neck out." As all I did was say I thought Agar's given reason wasn't that off-the-wall. I get not agreeing with that method but to act like it was confusing just seemed strange to me, as someone who's given that reasoning for my votes as well.
This is the problem with revoting in the RO, all the onus is basically on the last person and the person who votes first, which could be because of a variety of reasons, gets a pass because they're doing the expected move.
This is the problem with revoting in the RO, all the onus is basically on the last person and the person who votes first, which could be because of a variety of reasons, gets a pass because they're doing the expected move.
Its not a huge deal but its worthy of an explanation.
All I know is, something is fishy when someone gives a totally bullshit reason to vote for someone and then another person hops on that bullshit train and stacks
fwiw, I don’t think I ever tried to suggest that my logic was anything more than grasping at straws. I don’t necessarily think you’re mafia, but I also don’t really have a mafia read on anyone with such little info atm.
But also, based on that, idk why Kanye decided to hop on it. Wasn’t really reasoning that warranted bandwagoning.
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I've noted SFA sticking his neck out for agar as strange. It seems out of character, but also I've only played with him as mafia so thats good
I've never been shy about speaking about what's going on in the game, so I wouldn't say that's out of character really. Although, I don't really consider your example "sticking my neck out." As all I did was say I thought Agar's given reason wasn't that off-the-wall. I get not agreeing with that method but to act like it was confusing just seemed strange to me, as someone who's given that reasoning for my votes as well.
I just meant that I never pegged you as someone that would defend someone with an unknown role. You're very careful when you play, at least as mafia so if anything it means you're town
