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Republicans ground away at abortion rights for 50 years. They played the long game. Democrats get pissed when magic doesn’t happen after a few months.
Biden is as pro-Israeli genocide as anyone in the Democratic Party. Kamala has already flashed differences from Biden. Avoiding Shapiro would be another incremental improvement and could signal a true difference in policy.
Take the W and and focus on and elevate candidates at the state and local level with even better Israeli policy positions. Play the long game.
After being called out on his racist, hateful language and behavior toward the Black Community and his political rivals - Trump: "I have never been asked a question in such a horrible manner, first question. You don't even say "Hello, how are you." Are you with ABC? Because I think they are a fake news network, a terrible network."
Trump: "I did not know she was Black until a number of years ago, when she happened to turn Black, and now she wants to be known as Black. Is she Indian or is she Black?" [In reference to Kamala]
Trump at NABJ asked why the cop who shot Sonya Massey should have immunity. Trump says he "doesn't know the exact case but I saw something" as the crowd gasps.
Trump: "I think they are radical on abortion because they are allowing abortion in the ninth month. They are allowing the death of a baby after the baby is born." Moderator: "Sir, that is illegal in every state. Illegal in every state in the country."
Protest votes against dems should be done in primaries. Protest votes in a general are definitionally counter-productive.
Wholly meaningless. All this means is do it when nobody is paying attention and it can be ignored by the party(which it will be) but get in line and conform for the big game. Nothing changes either way. Most people are aware of this. This isn't an argument that's going to do you any favors with anyone thinking of not voting. I'd keep this to myself if I were you.
Lets take this year for example. A lot of folks voted uncommented. They were, for the most part, ignored by the Democratic establishment. If you are being generous you could say Biden and Co. running cover for Bibi with all this lying, ceasefire talk was in part to appease the angry section of his coalition. But that's a stretch because he also needed to save face with the majority of the US population opposed to the way things were going. Regardless, your advice would be to vote anyway. The protest votes were ignored. The party didn't take it seriously. Time to vote anyway. I don't see how that's persuasive at all. In fact, it's sorta insulting. Now granted, the protest voters aren't a large enough part of the coalition to force much change. That doesn't make this argument any better on an individual level.
I disagree with, like, every part of this. The uncommitted votes were certainly not ignored; beyond the massive amount of media attention it received and galvanization of voters generally, it forced the Biden administration to acknowledge it, it resulted in a lot of democratic leaders talking about it, concerns over the impact of Gaza on Michigan have been a consistent theme and topic of discussion across the party. After the Michigan primary you had Schumer laying into Netanyahu, Biden announcing the (mostly failure of a) pier for delivering aid, sanctions against Israelis, and holds on shipments of bombs.
All of that wasn't enough IMO, but the notion that the protest votes were ignored strikes me as at best ignorant and at worst an outright lie, and it still continues to influence democratic politics in discussions around who should be VP. Those protest votes mattered.
A protest vote in the general will not matter in the slightest or influence a damn thing. Well - that's not wholly accurate. If Trump wins, those protest votes will matter to the people living in Palestine and Ukraine whose enemies will have been given carte blanche to annihilate them, and it'll matter to the millions of people living in America who will lose access to healthcare, the social safety net, and a number of freedoms including possibly the ability to ever vote again. And I guess it'll offer the people doing the protest vote a sense of self-righteousness.
After being called out on his racist, hateful language and behavior toward the Black Community and his political rivals - Trump: "I have never been asked a question in such a horrible manner, first question. You don't even say "Hello, how are you." Are you with ABC? Because I think they are a fake news network, a terrible network."
Trump: "I did not know she was Black until a number of years ago, when she happened to turn Black, and now she wants to be known as Black. Is she Indian or is she Black?" [In reference to Kamala]
Trump at NABJ asked why the cop who shot Sonya Massey should have immunity. Trump says he "doesn't know the exact case but I saw something" as the crowd gasps.
Trump: "I think they are radical on abortion because they are allowing abortion in the ninth month. They are allowing the death of a baby after the baby is born." Moderator: "Sir, that is illegal in every state. Illegal in every state in the country."
Post by itrainmonkeys on Jul 31, 2024 14:17:34 GMT -5
The problem was his audience thinks the same way and probably sees nothing wrong with everything he's doing. Him disrespecting the interviewer because he felt attacked for being asked a question makes them think he's tough or cool. I've seen more than a few people on the right pushing this "She's not even black" narrative just like Trump is trying to say here. They believe that abortions are being done at 9 months or even after birth in some cases. Doesn't matter that it's not true.
We're never going to get out of this. Even when Trump is gone there are people who have brainrot that is way too deep and a lot of them pass it on to their kids.
Post by itrainmonkeys on Jul 31, 2024 14:40:58 GMT -5
It helps that the people he was talking to and in front of weren't treating him with kid gloves and babying him like they do in all his other media interviews. He didn't like being asked actual questions that wanted actual, legitimate answers and not just a rant or buzzword salad
Republicans ground away at abortion rights for 50 years. They played the long game. Democrats get pissed when magic doesn’t happen after a few months.
Biden is as pro-Israeli genocide as anyone in the Democratic Party. Kamala has already flashed differences from Biden. Avoiding Shapiro would be another incremental improvement and could signal a true difference in policy.
Take the W and and focus on and elevate candidates at the state and local level with even better Israeli policy positions. Play the long game.
Valid points all the way around. Maybe VP Harris was going to win PA anyway. But despite the evidence of a VP selection not having that much effect on a state, I'd lay money they take PA if it is him - and probably by a decent margin (2020 was 3,458,229 50% for Biden, 3,377,674 48.8% for Trump; 2016 was 2,912,941 48.8% for Trump and 2,844,705 47.6% for Clinton). My guess would be that Harris-Shapiro (if vs. Trump-Vance) would get 52-53% of the vote there. With the giant lead they have in Michigan at the moment, that's two swing states likely out of play. PA has 19 EV. Michigan has 15.
If you start with the assumption that VP Harris probably has 227 electoral votes (I included the split 1 votes in both Maine and Nebraska and locked up Minnesota for Harris), 34 more from MI/PA makes it 261. You then need to find 9 more electoral votes. The other so-called swing states are as follows: GA 16, NC 16, AZ 11, WI 10. Any one of those gets you the white house including if you lose one of the split votes in NE or ME. In that case you only need to win Wisconsin. If you lose both of those, you'd need either GA, AZ or NC to break 270.
Post by jorgeandthekraken on Jul 31, 2024 15:14:00 GMT -5
When I saw that the NABJ had booked him, I was pretty anti. I feel like serious journalists keep thinking they're going to be the ones to finally, finally hold Trump accountable to the truth, and then he just unhinges his jaw and floods the zone with so much shit that no one can keep up and it ends up being his show.
That kind of happened, again. It's not like he was ever cowed by the questions. He bulldozed his way through the interview even as the interviewers tried to push back and the crowd jeered him. He still got a lot of bullshit out. Of course it was awful and racist and all of that, but is it as much a disaster for him as Biden's debate performance, as I'm seeing some people claim on twitter? I don't think so. Trump did Trump things and everyone's just so inured to it at this point.
Any rational person watching that is going to see it's a dumpster fire of an interview. But what's that going to do? What did it tell us about Trump that we didn't already know?
In some other campaign news UAW announced their endorsement today. VP Harris will rally with them in Detroit next week.
Also Mark Cuban and about 200 venture capitalists endorsed VP Harris today in a letter
"We spend our days looking for, investing in and supporting entrepreneurs who are building the future. we are pro-business, pro-American dream, pro-entrepreneurship and pro-technological progress...We also believe in democracy as the backbone of our nation. We believe that strong, trustworthy institutions are a feature, not a bug, and that our industry - and every other industry - would collapse without them. That is what's at stake in this election. Everything else, we can solve through constructive dialog with political leaders and institutions willing to talk to us."
VCs for Kamala followed Tech for Kamala who noted "we acknowledge there are a few people in tech with very loud microphones who support a very different vision of the future. But as the names on this letter show, they do not represent the entire tech community."
Republicans ground away at abortion rights for 50 years. They played the long game. Democrats get pissed when magic doesn’t happen after a few months.
Biden is as pro-Israeli genocide as anyone in the Democratic Party. Kamala has already flashed differences from Biden. Avoiding Shapiro would be another incremental improvement and could signal a true difference in policy.
Take the W and and focus on and elevate candidates at the state and local level with even better Israeli policy positions. Play the long game.
Valid points all the way around. Maybe VP Harris was going to win PA anyway. But despite the evidence of a VP selection not having that much effect on a state, I'd lay money they take PA if it is him - and probably by a decent margin (2020 was 3,458,229 50% for Biden, 3,377,674 48.8% for Trump; 2016 was 2,912,941 48.8% for Trump and 2,844,705 47.6% for Clinton). My guess would be that Harris-Shapiro (if vs. Trump-Vance) would get 52-53% of the vote there. With the giant lead they have in Michigan at the moment, that's two swing states likely out of play. PA has 19 EV. Michigan has 15.
If you start with the assumption that VP Harris probably has 227 electoral votes (I included the split 1 votes in both Maine and Nebraska and locked up Minnesota for Harris), 34 more from MI/PA makes it 261. You then need to find 9 more electoral votes. The other so-called swing states are as follows: GA 16, NC 16, AZ 11, WI 10. Any one of those gets you the white house including if you lose one of the split votes in NE or ME. In that case you only need to win Wisconsin. If you lose both of those, you'd need either GA, AZ or NC to break 270.
Michigan will only be locked up if Harris doesn’t go Shapiro. Biden’s Israeli positions had Democrats severely underwater in Michigan (a state with full democrat control). The switch to Kamala immediately pushed Michigan to back to staying solidly blue. If you re-introduce anything sniffing pro-Israel like Shapiro, Michigan will be a toss-up.
So is Harris / Walz or Harris / Beshear ticket really going to not deliver PA to democrats? I find that hard to believe. A Harris / Shapiro ticket may run up the score in PA by a couple extra percentage points, but would be imperiling other important states. Walz and Beshear don’t provide any of that baggage.
I am selfishly hoping it’s Walz simply because that would mean MN would upgrade our more progressive Native American female Lt. Governor to replace Walz.
Edit: My neighbor to the East, Wisconsin, is going blue. And it will surprise with a larger than expected margin.
Last Edit: Jul 31, 2024 15:24:12 GMT -5 by ZIG - Back to Top
When I saw that the NABJ had booked him, I was pretty anti. I feel like serious journalists keep thinking they're going to be the ones to finally, finally hold Trump accountable to the truth, and then he just unhinges his jaw and floods the zone with so much shit that no one can keep up and it ends up being his show.
That kind of happened, again. It's not like he was ever cowed by the questions. He bulldozed his way through the interview even as the interviewers tried to push back and the crowd jeered him. He still got a lot of bullshit out. Of course it was awful and racist and all of that, but is it as much a disaster for him as Biden's debate performance, as I'm seeing some people claim on twitter? I don't think so. Trump did Trump things and everyone's just so inured to it at this point.
Any rational person watching that is going to see it's a dumpster fire of an interview. But what's that going to do? What did it tell us about Trump that we didn't already know?
I generally agree, but the fact that he said he doesn't know much at all about Sonya Massey's murder cannot help him with African American voters (what little he may have gained over the past four years.) That clip is going to be plastered all over TikTok.
Valid points all the way around. Maybe VP Harris was going to win PA anyway. But despite the evidence of a VP selection not having that much effect on a state, I'd lay money they take PA if it is him - and probably by a decent margin (2020 was 3,458,229 50% for Biden, 3,377,674 48.8% for Trump; 2016 was 2,912,941 48.8% for Trump and 2,844,705 47.6% for Clinton). My guess would be that Harris-Shapiro (if vs. Trump-Vance) would get 52-53% of the vote there. With the giant lead they have in Michigan at the moment, that's two swing states likely out of play. PA has 19 EV. Michigan has 15.
If you start with the assumption that VP Harris probably has 227 electoral votes (I included the split 1 votes in both Maine and Nebraska and locked up Minnesota for Harris), 34 more from MI/PA makes it 261. You then need to find 9 more electoral votes. The other so-called swing states are as follows: GA 16, NC 16, AZ 11, WI 10. Any one of those gets you the white house including if you lose one of the split votes in NE or ME. In that case you only need to win Wisconsin. If you lose both of those, you'd need either GA, AZ or NC to break 270.
Michigan will only be locked up if Harris doesn’t go Shapiro. Biden’s Israeli positions had Democrats severely underwater in Michigan (a state with full democrat control). The switch to Kamala immediately pushed Michigan to back to staying solidly blue. If you re-introduce anything sniffing pro-Israel like Shapiro, Michigan will be a toss-up.
So is Harris / Walz or Harris / Beshear ticket really going to not deliver PA to democrats? I find that hard to believe. A Harris / Shapiro ticket may run up the score in PA by a couple extra percentage points, but would be imperiling other important states. Walz and Beshear don’t provide any of that baggage.
I am selfishly hoping it’s Walz simply because that would mean MN would upgrade our more progressive Native American female Lt. Governor to replace Walz.
Edit: My neighbor to the East, Wisconsin, is going blue. And it will surprise with a larger than expected margin.
What are you thinking the margins turn out to be in Wisconsin? Last election was 49.6% to 48.9% (about 20,680 votes). As for Michigan, Bloomberg's poll yesterday had her up +11 over Trump. Seems a little bit like an outlier, but Democrats need an engaged black voter bloc in the midwest (ref. Hillary). So even if Shapiro cost her 3-4% points there, she'd still be up around +5
Michigan will only be locked up if Harris doesn’t go Shapiro. Biden’s Israeli positions had Democrats severely underwater in Michigan (a state with full democrat control). The switch to Kamala immediately pushed Michigan to back to staying solidly blue. If you re-introduce anything sniffing pro-Israel like Shapiro, Michigan will be a toss-up.
So is Harris / Walz or Harris / Beshear ticket really going to not deliver PA to democrats? I find that hard to believe. A Harris / Shapiro ticket may run up the score in PA by a couple extra percentage points, but would be imperiling other important states. Walz and Beshear don’t provide any of that baggage.
I am selfishly hoping it’s Walz simply because that would mean MN would upgrade our more progressive Native American female Lt. Governor to replace Walz.
Edit: My neighbor to the East, Wisconsin, is going blue. And it will surprise with a larger than expected margin.
What are you thinking the margins turn out to be in Wisconsin? Last election was 49.6% to 48.9% (about 20,680 votes). As for Michigan, Bloomberg's poll yesterday had her up +11 over Trump. Seems a little bit like an outlier, but Democrats need an engaged black voter bloc in the midwest (ref. Hillary). So even if Shapiro cost her 3-4% points there, she'd still be up around +5
IMO, Wisconsin should be a 3-5% win. Something on the order of 51-46. Much of Western Wisconsin is actually in the Twin Cities media market and get the Minnesota news. WI also had an April 2023 election where they voted for a democrat Supreme Court justices 55-44 and had over 2M total votes. The 2020 election did 3.6M so that’s crazy turnout in an extreme out of cycle election. Tammy Baldwin is also up for her Senate reelection. She won 55-44 in 2018 and will at least match that.
In Michigan, Biden was consistently down by 1-3% before dropping out. A flip to +10% seems a bit much so quickly. I’d venture to guess polls that are showing a 3-4% lead in Michigan are more accurate.
I'm sure no one reads replies to Trump's spam texts, but I just replied to one by saying that every time they send me another message, I'm going to donate to the Harris campaign. I haven't decided on an amount yet or whether to stick to one, as that could begin to get expensive, but I'm doing it.
Trump looked uniquely awful today. He is way off his game.
this man definitely hasn’t slept through the night since biden dropped and he realized he now has to face a competent opponent
Let em waste time and money in places he doesnt want to be in. If Kamala is going to go everywhere and talk policy then 45 is gonna have to stop the bullshit and talk policy bullshit. I mean we should expect another caravan in 2 months and thats what will scare voters into going Maga cause fear is the only platform they have.
Post by jorgeandthekraken on Jul 31, 2024 17:36:14 GMT -5
Conservatives already posting video of Harris replying “yes” when Mindy Kaling calls her Indian in their cooking video and pictures of her family in saris when she was younger and I swear to god we are one dumb NY Times op ed away from a cascade that will end with “Is Kamala Harris really Black?” becoming a central theme of this campaign.
Conservatives already posting video of Harris replying “yes” when Mindy Kaling calls her Indian in their cooking video and pictures of her family in saris when she was younger and I swear to god we are one dumb NY Times op ed away from a cascade that will end with “Is Kamala Harris really Black?” becoming a central theme of this campaign.
#WhenITurnedBlack is now a real hashtag and the tweets are hilarious.
Conservatives already posting video of Harris replying “yes” when Mindy Kaling calls her Indian in their cooking video and pictures of her family in saris when she was younger and I swear to god we are one dumb NY Times op ed away from a cascade that will end with “Is Kamala Harris really Black?” becoming a central theme of this campaign.
I think we are at a point where whether Kamala is black or not doesn't matter all that much. It's more of whether Kamala is a convicted felon or almost 80 years old or not, which she is neither of those things.
Either way she is a woman POC at a time when abortions rights are on the chopping block. And, for now, she has all the momentum while Trump's age and assholishness and weird VP keep bringing him down. The whole thing before was a really old barely-there guy vs a felon and wannabe dictator so people threw their hands up in the air crying "how are these the only two choices?!" Now we have another choice and people are energized again. MAGA and forever-GOPers were never going to vote for a democrat no matter who it was. Like always it's up to swing state moderates and centrists, and for them I am certain that right now one candidate is looking way better than the other.
The problem was his audience thinks the same way and probably sees nothing wrong with everything he's doing. Him disrespecting the interviewer because he felt attacked for being asked a question makes them think he's tough or cool. I've seen more than a few people on the right pushing this "She's not even black" narrative just like Trump is trying to say here. They believe that abortions are being done at 9 months or even after birth in some cases. Doesn't matter that it's not true.
We're never going to get out of this. Even when Trump is gone there are people who have brainrot that is way too deep and a lot of them pass it on to their kids.
The majority of the audience was appalled and some even booed. They collectively gasped when he said he was the best president for blacks since Abraham Lincoln.