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I know it's CNN so they will fearmonger, but also this is probably true.
The issue is are people skewing the numbers a certain way to make us think its going a certain way. Like that was what happened in 2016. People gave them the wrong data and then got destroyed election day. So you could be calling a person thats gop and they say they hate 45 and wont vote for him and dems will just say theyre indifferent and such so its just a fucking stalemate. Who is really honest anymore.
I know it's CNN so they will fearmonger, but also this is probably true.
I think comparing this election to 2016 and 2020 is dicey because the circumstances of Harris replacing Biden and completely changing the dynamics of the race at this stage of the process have no parallel in either of those cycles.
I’m not saying that’s necessarily good or bad news - just that we have no basis for comparison for something like this, and especially not with two elections featuring Democrat candidates who were decidedly known quantities by mid-August of their election years.
Idk what the fuck this notion is about marble mouthed Donnie being more popular than in '16 or '20. His base has not expanded whatsoever, and many who were indifferent before toward him don't like him now and are tired of his fearful/hateful shtick. And those that didn't like him over the years, now completely loathe him and clown on him like there's no tomorrow.
Like I've said before, starting since last year - it was already going to be an uphill battle for Trump. But then you add women's rights that need to be protected and reinstated, and the massive jolt that occurred when Biden dropped and Kamala came in, and he's D.O.A. As long as voter turnout is rock solid, he'll lose by a considerable margin.
Who knows how the polls will be wrong in 2024 and I don't think it necessarily has any correlation to 2016 and 2020.
My personal completely unscientific theory is that in 2016 the polls were off mostly because of the so called silent Trump voter. Before the full blown acceptance of Trump and Maga-ism voters were embarrassed to admit they were going to vote for him to a pollster. There were also theories about lack of weighting for education in the polls overweighting college educated voters who were more likely to respond to polls and more likely to vote for Clinton (many pollsters have added some amount of education weighting since).
In 2020 my theory is it was all about Covid. The majority of major polls still relied on landlines and there happened to be a pandemic that Biden voters were more likely to be taking seriously and staying at home for than Trump voters whom were more likely to be not concerned about and leaving their houses.
The odd thing is the midterm polls in 2018 and 2022 have been incredibly accurate, despite non-Presidential years historically being much less accurate.
In summary, no one knows what's going to happen or how accurate or inaccurate the polls will prove to be. I happen to be a big believer in Nate Silver and his theory that the best thing you can do is average the entire body of polls and assume some of those errors will work themselves out, while also being aware that in most of the battleground states the difference between Harris and Trump is well within the margin of error. His current model has Harris with a 54% chance of winning, which means Trump has a 46% chance of winning. They've talked about how people interpret those statistics and overweight the favorite, but they would argue that is essentially a coin flip.
Idk what the fuck this notion is about marble mouthed Donnie being more popular than in '16 or '20. His base has not expanded whatsoever, and many who were indifferent before toward him don't like him now and are tired of his fearful/hateful shtick. And those that didn't like him over the years, now completely loathe him and clown on him like there's no tomorrow.
Like I've said before, starting since last year - it was already going to be an uphill battle for Trump. But then you add women's rights that need to be protected and reinstated, and the massive jolt that occurred when Biden dropped and Kamala came in, and he's D.O.A. As long as voter turnout is rock solid, he'll lose by a considerable margin.
I think it's pretty clear - Trump's favorability ratings are the highest they've ever been. The last number I remember is 46% currently - it's a small shift, but he's always hovered around 40-44 percent when it was good (and probably falling below 40 at points).
The other point is interesting - for all the excitement for Harris/Walz, Democrats aren't reporting that they are voting at higher levels than they were. This seems to say people were going to vote anti-Biden and now those same people have been brought home, instead of broadening the electorate.
Idk what the fuck this notion is about marble mouthed Donnie being more popular than in '16 or '20. His base has not expanded whatsoever, and many who were indifferent before toward him don't like him now and are tired of his fearful/hateful shtick. And those that didn't like him over the years, now completely loathe him and clown on him like there's no tomorrow.
Like I've said before, starting since last year - it was already going to be an uphill battle for Trump. But then you add women's rights that need to be protected and reinstated, and the massive jolt that occurred when Biden dropped and Kamala came in, and he's D.O.A. As long as voter turnout is rock solid, he'll lose by a considerable margin.
I took a closer look at that CNN clip and the key thing is "more favorable on this date than the same date in 2016/2020."
I'm actually surprised looking back at how low Trump's favorability ratings were in 2016, even before the Access Hollywood clip. He did have the lowest percentage of the popular vote in a presidential primary since 1988; the party was reasonably divided, and MAGA hadn't fully taken off yet; there were plenty of republicans who had not yet fully committed to the cult.
Trump having lower favorability in August 2020 also isn't terribly shocking given we were in the throes of Covid and it was going disastrously, nor is it shocking it was higher than in 2016 given by 2020 the party and its voters had given themselves over fully to him.
But I go back to what I said earlier - even if he's more popular by measure of favorability ratings because he has the party lined up behind him, that popularity does not appear to be nearly as passionate.
In summary, no one knows what's going to happen or how accurate or inaccurate the polls will prove to be. I happen to be a big believer in Nate Silver and his theory that the best thing you can do is average the entire body of polls and assume some of those errors will work themselves out, while also being aware that in most of the battleground states the difference between Harris and Trump is well within the margin of error. His current model has Harris with a 54% chance of winning, which means Trump has a 46% chance of winning. They've talked about how people interpret those statistics and overweight the favorite, but they would argue that is essentially a coin flip.
In summary, no one knows what's going to happen or how accurate or inaccurate the polls will prove to be. I happen to be a big believer in Nate Silver and his theory that the best thing you can do is average the entire body of polls and assume some of those errors will work themselves out, while also being aware that in most of the battleground states the difference between Harris and Trump is well within the margin of error. His current model has Harris with a 54% chance of winning, which means Trump has a 46% chance of winning. They've talked about how people interpret those statistics and overweight the favorite, but they would argue that is essentially a coin flip.
I get the criticisms of Nate Silver, I think he can often be bad an expressing himself and what information his analysis is supposed to provide in the election world, but I don't subscribe to it at all. I will say this, he has publicly disagreed and argued with the new guy at 538 G. Elliot Morris well before he left and Morris replaced him about modeling and poll weighting strategies. It is definitely personal for him and he clearly wants his model to be proved better. Nate's model had Trump at 65% before Biden dropped out but Morris's had it much, much closer. Nate also briefly paused his model when Biden dropped out but restarted it after the first handful of Harris polls had come out with Trump still ahead, but much closer than Biden. Since then Harris has gradually ticked up with almost every daily update. It is a little strange that 538 still hasn't rebooted the model and hasn't even updated the statement that they would reboot it when a presumptive nominee is announced.
I don't know anything that went on behind the scenes between ABC and FiveThirtyEight but I don't believe he was fired. In the year leading up to his contract expiring ABC had had laid off a bunch of the best writers on the site (including my favorite and RFK bear story breaker Clare Malone) and every time he had expressed his anger about it and had hinted that he would leave if it continued. I wouldn't be surprised at all if his contract negotiations included protections for the rest of the staff and ABCs unwillingness to provide it caused him to leave. Either way you have to give him credit for coming out way ahead in that situation. ABC didn't discover that they didn't own the model until after it was publicly announced he was leaving and they ended up paying millions for what is now an essentially worthless name.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Aug 14, 2024 12:26:15 GMT -5
I like to make fun of Silver for his terrible pundit brain but he’s really not all that bad when it comes to analyzing polling.
I’ll always remember 2016 when he got accused of being a part of the media horse race narrative because he wasn’t more bullish on Clinton. All he really did was notice the noise in places like Michigan right before the election. I don’t think the model ever got below 65% for her? Still that’s 1/3 odds for Trump. I wouldn’t bet my life saving with those odds. You go a week either way and Clinton could have won that election even with her lackluster campaign.
Then a week later these same critics thought he was the worst person alive for being totally wrong. Everyone got it wrong. Including like 99% of this thread
To Nate Silver’s credit, it has been really funny to watch him tank his whole career because he can’t not be mad online. Thanks for all the laughs pal.
It’s amazing how many people in the media keep their jobs while being wrong about everything. They just know how to touch grass. That and they are useful idiots I guess.
I like to make fun of Silver for his terrible pundit brain but he’s really not all that bad when it comes to analyzing polling.
I’ll always remember 2016 when he got accused of being a part of the media horse race narrative because he wasn’t more bullish on Clinton. All he really did was notice the noise in places like Michigan right before the election. I don’t think the model ever got below 65% for her? Still that’s 1/3 odds. I wouldn’t bet my life saving with those odds. You go a week either way a Clinton could have won that election even with her lackluster campaign.
Then a week later these same critics thought he was the worst person alive for being totally wrong. Everyone got it wrong. Including like 99% of this thread
Ya i guess I should have clarified I'm a fan of him as an analyst and prognosticator, I don't particularly care for him as a twitter personality.
The 2016 election is where his PR downfall all began exactly as you described it. On election day he had Clinton with a 65% chance of winning, lower than almost everyone else and he had spent the entire election writing and podcasting about how close it was. And yet everyone turned on him when Clinton won. It led to some really interesting developments at 538 where they tried exploring how to better convey statistical information, but unfortunately the "Nate Silver was wrong about the 2016 election" was always the primary narrative.
Last year they did a comprehensive analysis about how good their models in both politics and sports have been for the entire history of the site and the results speak for themselves. But the problem is the general public judges a model by how often it correctly picks the winner (the thing with a 65% chance of happening should happen 100% of the time), when they judged the model by if it happens the % of times expected (the thing with a 65% chance of happening should happen 65% of the time)
In summary, no one knows what's going to happen or how accurate or inaccurate the polls will prove to be. I happen to be a big believer in Nate Silver and his theory that the best thing you can do is average the entire body of polls and assume some of those errors will work themselves out, while also being aware that in most of the battleground states the difference between Harris and Trump is well within the margin of error. His current model has Harris with a 54% chance of winning, which means Trump has a 46% chance of winning. They've talked about how people interpret those statistics and overweight the favorite, but they would argue that is essentially a coin flip.
The best thing 538 had was the dashboard that just showed every single poll. It’s still live even though the rest of the site is dead, although it no longer includes the pollster ratings. But it was a great way look at everything in one place and just judge the for yourself. The Nate Silver models trying to quantify everything as a percentage are kinda meaningless unless you’re gambling
The other great thing was their NCAA Bracket tool. Won a lot of money with that thing.
Everything else was whatever.
I believe Nate Silver owns the pollster ratings too. I have to imagine someone got in a lot of trouble when ABC realized they just owned the name, domain, and published articles and essentially nothing else.
Walz has called out Vance to a VP Debate, for October 1st, after CBS News invited both candidates to a debate in NYC.
Meanwhile DonOLD is sounding batshit insane as usual in some weird campaign speech/rally event in North Carolina. It's a shame the imbecile gets all of his events televised on mainstream media, and not Kamala, but then again these appearances by Trump make him look worse and worse. His b.s. charismatic ways from 2015-16 are long gone.
Oh and back to Couch Boy, he agreed with a podcast host in a 2020 interview that having grandmothers help raise children is "the who purpose of the postmenopausal female." FUCK him.
Post by bugs bunny funny moments on Aug 14, 2024 21:24:20 GMT -5
Barring any crazy controversy, I have Harris winning.
Trump is totally directionless. What is he running on? What are his policy goals? I think the shtick has worn off. Yeah, he might be more “normalized” but he’s not the shiny new thing anymore.
If Harris can run a sensible campaign that keeps the energy going and if she has a few big speech / debate moments, I just can’t see the Republicans mobilizing enough voters in November.
Post by bugs bunny funny moments on Aug 14, 2024 21:27:39 GMT -5
I think Walz was a net positive too. What was the Republicans best hit on him? Tampons? Stolen valor? If they really want to disparage a man who spent 24 years in the military to go into public education, by all means, go ahead. Not only is Harris the better candidate, the Democrats are the better party by a country mile.
Barring any crazy controversy, I have Harris winning.
Trump is totally directionless. What is he running on? What are his policy goals? I think the shtick has worn off. Yeah, he might be more “normalized” but he’s not the shiny new thing anymore.
If Harris can run a sensible campaign that keeps the energy going and if she has a few big speech / debate moments, I just can’t see the Republicans mobilizing enough voters in November.
I think this is right. The surging enthusiasm for Harris reminds me a lot of Obama in 2008. Within a month she has closed the gap with Trump and if things stay the course with enthusiasm and with Trump's constant missteps then it is a certain win. Of course MAGA crowds will be forever Trump but I think a lot of never-Trump republicans will vote third party, not vote, or hell they might even vote Harris idk. People who aren't full on MAGA are burnt out on Trump's bullshit and doom and gloom. The positivity and hopefulness of Harris and Walz is such a refreshing change of pace that hasn't been seen in American politics since the Obama years which held next to a very possible authoritarian dictatorship where women are forced to give birth and people without kids are second hand citizens, well it's not even a choice really.
And in the latest round of Couch Boy shenanigans, the Daily Mail just published an old photo of Vance posing with 3 female classmates at the urinals of a boys' bathroom during his senior year in high school.
Post by itrainmonkeys on Aug 15, 2024 11:43:31 GMT -5
Trumps a fucking moron but the people using him are scary with how laser focused they are on completely transforming and controlling this country. It's fucked
Trump has publicly rejected Project 2025 as Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has sought to tie him to some of the plan’s most extreme proposals. But in private, Vought said that those disavowals were merely “graduate-level politics.”
Vought said his group, the Center for Renewing America, was secretly drafting hundreds of executive orders, regulations, and memos that would lay the groundwork for rapid action on Trump’s plans if he wins, describing his work as creating “shadow” agencies. He claimed that Trump has “blessed” his organization and “he’s very supportive of what we do.”
“Eighty percent of my time is working on the plans of what’s necessary to take control of these bureaucracies,” Vought said. “And we are working doggedly on that, whether it’s destroying their agencies’ notion of independence … whether that is thinking through how the deportation would work.”
…
“I see what he’s doing is just very, very conscious distancing himself from a brand,” Vought said. “It’s interesting, he’s in fact not even opposing himself to a particular policy.”
…
Vought said he had personally talked to Trump in recent months and received at least one personal “assignment” from him after he left office. He noted that the former president has “been at our organization, he’s raised money for our organization, he’s blessed it … he’s very supportive of what we do.”
Surely THIS will be the thing that finally sinks Donald Trump politically!
Im not convinced there are really many voters that are going to be swayed by the increasing Project 2025 talk. How many people are there out there that Jan 6th (or whatever other awful shit he’s said and done) wasn’t the line but Project 2025 is? At best hopefully it will convince some voters that weren’t going to vote for Harris because of Palestine or maybe some RFK leaning never Trumpers.
I bet in the next four weeks we will have Trump fully endorsing Project 2025 in rallies and the campaign still releasing statements about how there is no connection and I doubt it will make much difference in the polls.