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What's with the picture of Michelle/Jill? Also, that picture of Biden and Obama is obviously way too recent to have been taken during any interview while they were campaigning together (I'm not saying they didn't interview together, but why post a picture that obviously doesn't represent that).
Seeing some really scary polling, lately. Not seeing a convention bounce for Harris, stronger showing in some swing states for Trump. I may have to go back into media blackout on this for a while. This country is certifiable and we are in deep trouble. The worse the guy looks, the more awful shit he does, the stronger his support gets, and it is absolutely breaking my brain. Really have to do some work to keep from getting depressed about this with 69 days left to go.
Not sure what polling some of y’all look at….
Fox News even came out with polling TODAY saying Harris is up in AZ, NV, NC and only down 1 in GA.
Blue wall states of WI and MI have consistently been showing 2-3 point leads for Harris too.
I have said this several times, but WI is going to surprise by not being particularly close. Believe me or not, but for Wisconsin, the die is cast. On election day, I’d be surprised if it’s not at least +4% for Harris / Walz
Emerson poll today showing Trump up in WI and PA essentially tied:
I would be very happy to be told with some data/a non-vibes-based argument why all of this is wrong and things are actually looking great for Harris/Walz.
Fox News even came out with polling TODAY saying Harris is up in AZ, NV, NC and only down 1 in GA.
Blue wall states of WI and MI have consistently been showing 2-3 point leads for Harris too.
I have said this several times, but WI is going to surprise by not being particularly close. Believe me or not, but for Wisconsin, the die is cast. On election day, I’d be surprised if it’s not at least +4% for Harris / Walz
Emerson poll today showing Trump up in WI and PA essentially tied:
I would be very happy to be told with some data/a non-vibes-based argument why all of this is wrong and things are actually looking great for Harris/Walz.
Silver’s own data doesn’t match what he’s spouting.
Again, go look at the most recent averages in Silver’s data:
Every blue wall state and 3/4 sunbelt states are polling for Harris.
Fox News even came out with polling TODAY saying Harris is up in AZ, NV, NC and only down 1 in GA.
Blue wall states of WI and MI have consistently been showing 2-3 point leads for Harris too.
I have said this several times, but WI is going to surprise by not being particularly close. Believe me or not, but for Wisconsin, the die is cast. On election day, I’d be surprised if it’s not at least +4% for Harris / Walz
Emerson poll today showing Trump up in WI and PA essentially tied:
I would be very happy to be told with some data/a non-vibes-based argument why all of this is wrong and things are actually looking great for Harris/Walz.
I was having a full on meltdown about the polls a few days ago (which was probably why I fell into an extended argument about how she should maybe do more on Gaza) but I’ve mellowed a little today.
Big picture is you just gotta wait until after the debate to really start panicking. All in all the polls have been frustrating but stable and she’s holding a small lead.
She hasn’t had a “convention bounce” but that’s understandable because Dems basically had their sugar high in the weeks leading up. Nate Silvers model basically just subtracts 2 from her polls for the next week or two so as long she doesn’t really start losing ground his model will bounce back in her favor. The small number of polls on PA haven’t been great but it’s also a small number of polls. I think reasonable people can look at all the data and make either argument - “she’s fine” or “she’s screwed” - and it’ll be that way till November.
The piece of new data I saw today that was reassuring was this from Gallup on the enthusiasm gap. It matches what I’ve seen driving around PA and NC recently, there’s just doesn’t feel like there’s as much enthusiasm for Trump this time and maybe we can be a little more confident that the polling will be accurate this time.
Trump is showing up all over the place in interviews and videos with podcasters and streamers. There’s an hour long video of him playing a round of golf with Bryson Dechambeau that makes him seem relatable and normal. He’s almost didn’t mention politics once, it was just the two of them talking about golf and doing a scramble trying to break 50 from the red tees (they shot exactly 50). He did a long interview with Theo Von on his YouTube podcast.
This is the epitome of a double standard.
Everyone demands that Kamala and Walz do substantive interviews with serious members of the MSM, yet Trump’s own appearances are all MAGA-adjacent, non-political fluff. If Kamala did a podcast with a faux-hillbilly interviewer where she and the host BS’d about using Cocaine and other recreational drugs, you and the MSM would be apoplectic…
And the last time Trump did a real appearance was at the NABJ conference. He was such a disaster that his staff pulled him from the stage 25 minutes early. It’s been MAGA-adjacent fluff and Fox News call-ins ever since. He won’t do anything substantive.
I’m not demanding she do substantive interviews. She just needs to be doing more things to reach broader audiences. That Theo Von interview has 12M views. That Dechambeau video has 11M views.
It’s been almost a decade since Trump was elected. Yall should know by now that a huge population of voters care as much or more about personalities and relatability as they do about actual issues.
Everyone demands that Kamala and Walz do substantive interviews with serious members of the MSM, yet Trump’s own appearances are all MAGA-adjacent, non-political fluff. If Kamala did a podcast with a faux-hillbilly interviewer where she and the host BS’d about using Cocaine and other recreational drugs, you and the MSM would be apoplectic…
And the last time Trump did a real appearance was at the NABJ conference. He was such a disaster that his staff pulled him from the stage 25 minutes early. It’s been MAGA-adjacent fluff and Fox News call-ins ever since. He won’t do anything substantive.
I’m not demanding she do substantive interviews. She just needs to be doing more things to reach broader audiences. That Theo Von interview has 12M views. That Dechambeau video has 11M views.
It’s been almost a decade since Trump was elected. Yall should know by now that a huge population of voters care as much or more about personalities and relatability as they do about actual issues.
Both of which make it absolutely mind-boggling that anyone in that cohort would vote for Trump. He’s a pig and a boor and a know-nothing asshole who lives in a palace with golden toilets. So relatable!
I would be very happy to be told with some data/a non-vibes-based argument why all of this is wrong and things are actually looking great for Harris/Walz.
Silver’s own data doesn’t match what he’s spouting.
Again, go look at the most recent averages in Silver’s data:
Every blue wall state and 3/4 sunbelt states are polling for Harris.
He’s been explaining that the reason the model flipped to Trump advantage is that the model expects a convention bounce so it’s assuming that she will drop from her current levels in the next few weeks. He said if the polls remain steady for the next few weeks it will go back to her advantage. The caveat being that there have been a couple recent bad polls in PA which does actively hurt her chances. She can win without PA but it would be much, much harder.
Post by braundiggity on Aug 29, 2024 17:31:00 GMT -5
The convention bounce thing in Nate's projection is very weird. Also - to at least some degree she's not seeing a bounce because of RFK dropping out; Nate updated his model after that and while he'd previously shown her getting a 1.8 point bounce counting polling from the first three days of the convention, that bounce was gone after he adjusted for RFK dropping out (as in: the entire polling average changed retroactively).
She's also getting hurt a bit in the polls from pollsters no longer including RFK (either national or state polls), which strikes me as a bit of a mistake, given he'll still be on the ballot in Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina. She performed a bit better in polls that included RFK. And RFK will still be on the ballot in many places.
Because of both pollsters updating their model to minimize RFK and discontinuing the inclusion of RFK in polls, it's quite difficult to discern the impact of the convention or where she actually stands relative to 10 days ago.
Post by cheeky resurrection on Aug 29, 2024 19:30:58 GMT -5
That's just him preying on the votes of people in a vulnerable situation. IVF is more expensive than most elective cosmetic surgeries - no way the government and especially not slimy insurance companies will pay a dime.
Post by xfinitypass on Aug 29, 2024 19:51:36 GMT -5
The idea that taking a couple photo ops at a cemetery would or should push anyone over the edge against Trump is laughable to me, don’t really get why it’s being presented like it should. Anyone still on the train at this point has put up with hundreds of worse actions.
The idea that taking a couple photo ops at a cemetery would or should push anyone over the edge against Trump is laughable to me, don’t really get why it’s being presented like it should. Anyone still on the train at this point has put up with hundreds of worse actions.
If they are charging their opposition with so-called stolen valor and repeatedly denigrate maimed and deceased veterans what’s the solution and answer except they and their voters suck warty and polypy ass?
That's just him preying on the votes of people in a vulnerable situation. IVF is more expensive than most elective cosmetic surgeries - no way the government and especially not slimy insurance companies will pay a dime.
The Senate voted on it in June. You’ll be amazed which party was for it and which party blocked it.
I’m up to the last segment of this interview but Bash was kind of an add hole (haha) bringing up dumb ass fucking Internet but mostly irrelevant shit. Last segment she asked human questions. Maybe it will go out okay. But I’m slowly kind of weening off recent era CNN.
This is the first message board I've ever been on, the only reason I joined is because I love Bonnaroo and wanted to read and talk about it all year long.
Now people understand why they took so long to do media interviews.
And why I’ve also said Harris / Walz should just avoid MSM completely (other than debates). No matter what they do, it will be spun negatively. Fuck Em and their billionaire owners.
That's just him preying on the votes of people in a vulnerable situation. IVF is more expensive than most elective cosmetic surgeries - no way the government and especially not slimy insurance companies will pay a dime.
The Senate voted on it in June. You’ll be amazed which party was for it and which party blocked it.
That wasn’t even offering to pay for it right? Just formalizing its legality?