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I agree with all of this, but also, we as a society are not taking the right-wing indoctrination of young men seriously enough or doing enough to combat it. I'm not talking about the Elons of the world - polls are showing that Gen Z and Gen Alpha men are skewing more conservative than men of previous generations at their respective ages, and I feel like pointing at all that and calling the kids who fall for it loser incels is going to net out really badly in the long run.
I agree but I don't even know where you would start combatting it.
You'd need comprehensive left politics and those aren't allowed in this country.
For those worrying about polls, check this...270 To Win's Polling Map has moved Texas & Florida From "Red" to "Toss-Up," making this change tonight. As some of us have said in recent weeks, Florida is truly in play. But it's great to see that Texas is moving toward a possibility (still small, but it's plausible).
www.270towin.com/ ***Make sure to switch to Polling Map tab under Map Library, below the Map Color Pallette and Split Votes sections. Map is below too:
For those worrying about polls, check this...270 To Win's Polling Map has moved Texas & Florida From "Red" to "Toss-Up," making this change tonight. As some of us have said in recent weeks, Florida is truly in play. But it's great to see that Texas is moving toward a possibility (still small, but it's plausible).
www.270towin.com/ ***Make sure to switch to Polling Map tab under Map Library, below the Map Color Pallette and Split Votes sections. Map is below too:
Trust me, we good in Wisconsin. Not a battleground.
Last Edit: Sept 7, 2024 3:01:18 GMT -5 by ZIG - Back to Top
For those worrying about polls, check this...270 To Win's Polling Map has moved Texas & Florida From "Red" to "Toss-Up," making this change tonight. As some of us have said in recent weeks, Florida is truly in play. But it's great to see that Texas is moving toward a possibility (still small, but it's plausible).
www.270towin.com/ ***Make sure to switch to Polling Map tab under Map Library, below the Map Color Pallette and Split Votes sections. Map is below too:
Trust me, we good in Wisconsin. Not a battleground.
Oh this I know. I shared this to illustrate that a lot of the news/messaging out there is fueled by straight up bullshit. The situation is not as dire as some are making it out to be. And like I've said for ages now, since abortion/women's rights is on the ballot in many states, and in the front of the minds for many women and men, I expect some areas to be in play that normally wouldn't have been.
Trust me, we good in Wisconsin. Not a battleground.
Oh this I know. I shared this to illustrate that a lot of the news/messaging out there is fueled by straight up bullshit. The situation is not as dire as some are making it out to be. And like I've said for ages now, since abortion/women's rights is on the ballot in many states, and in the front of the minds for many women and men, I expect some areas to be in play that normally wouldn't have been.
Oh this I know. I shared this to illustrate that a lot of the news/messaging out there is fueled by straight up bullshit. The situation is not as dire as some are making it out to be. And like I've said for ages now, since abortion/women's rights is on the ballot in many states, and in the front of the minds for many women and men, I expect some areas to be in play that normally wouldn't have been.
Check their site again.
What about it? I don't think I see any new updates to the polling map. Care to elaborate?
Upcoming Shows: 10/18 - Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit & Iris DeMent @ Ryman Auditorium 11/8 - Goose @ The Andrew J. Brady Center 11/13 - Bobby Weir & Wolf Bros w/ The Wolfpack & The Cincinnati Pops Orchestra @ Cincinnati Music Hall 2/14 - Alan Walker @ The Fillmore Detroit 4/15 - Ben Folds w/ The Cincinnati Pops Orchestra @ Cincinnati Music Hall
Oh this I know. I shared this to illustrate that a lot of the news/messaging out there is fueled by straight up bullshit. The situation is not as dire as some are making it out to be. And like I've said for ages now, since abortion/women's rights is on the ballot in many states, and in the front of the minds for many women and men, I expect some areas to be in play that normally wouldn't have been.
Check their site again.
An I looking at the wrong thing? I click on that link and the front page has a map with Texas and Florida light red.
Upcoming Shows: 10/18 - Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit & Iris DeMent @ Ryman Auditorium 11/8 - Goose @ The Andrew J. Brady Center 11/13 - Bobby Weir & Wolf Bros w/ The Wolfpack & The Cincinnati Pops Orchestra @ Cincinnati Music Hall 2/14 - Alan Walker @ The Fillmore Detroit 4/15 - Ben Folds w/ The Cincinnati Pops Orchestra @ Cincinnati Music Hall
What about it? I don't think I see any new updates to the polling map. Care to elaborate?
I noticed NV went from leaning red to a tossup. Was there anything else?
I think a lot of people are completely forgetting about the 1 electoral vote in ME-2. Our wonderful media ONLY focuses on the 1 electoral vote in NE-2.
The irony is they are both identically reverse scenarios.
NE-2 has a Republican congressman but went blue in 2020. ME-2 has a democrat congressman but went red in 2016 and 2020.
Most sites have NE-2 as a true tossup, but most basically auto-give the ME-2 vote to Trump. The only poll specific to ME-2 was 2+ weeks ago and actually showed Harris / Walz up 5, so this site had it marked more accurately IMO.
This is the map the media keeps jerking off to, and makes some of you in here have existential meltdowns every 2 weeks.
First: IMO, there are 9 battlegrounds (AZ, NV, GA, NC, PA, MI, WI, and ME-2 and NE-2). That’s 9 binary options.
Meaning: 2^9 = 512 Combinations.
Like, I get why they want to focus on this scenario, it’s provocative, but it’s 1/512 scenarios. That’s under .2%
Second: So even when this absurd scenario is discussed, the media always portrays it as Democrats defending. Always NE-2. republicans on offense in red territory. Yet, as I pointed out above, it’s the same scenario. Why does the media never discuss ME-2 and MAGA on defense with Dems on offense.
This is the map the media keeps jerking off to, and makes some of you in here have existential meltdowns every 2 weeks.
First: IMO, there are 9 battlegrounds (AZ, NV, GA, NC, PA, MI, WI, and ME-2 and NE-2). That’s 9 binary options.
Meaning: 2^9 = 512 Combinations.
Like, I get why they want to focus on this scenario, it’s provocative, but it’s 1/512 scenarios. That’s under .2%
Second: So even when this absurd scenario is discussed, the media always portrays it as Democrats defending. Always NE-2. republicans on offense in red territory. Yet, as I pointed out above, it’s the same scenario. Why does the media never discuss ME-2 and MAGA on defense with Dems on offense.
Very good Zig, couldn't have said it better myself. Mainstream media wants us all to believe that this thing is razor tight...And some of the outlets want Trump to win flat our, democracy be damned.
I'm hopeful the debate will either maintain Kamala's momentum or blow the door completely open for her. Trump's brain/mind has been reduced to donkey brains. Even with the stupid format they'll have, he will have a poor showing.
This is the map the media keeps jerking off to, and makes some of you in here have existential meltdowns every 2 weeks.
First: IMO, there are 9 battlegrounds (AZ, NV, GA, NC, PA, MI, WI, and ME-2 and NE-2). That’s 9 binary options.
Meaning: 2^9 = 512 Combinations.
Like, I get why they want to focus on this scenario, it’s provocative, but it’s 1/512 scenarios. That’s under .2%
Second: So even when this absurd scenario is discussed, the media always portrays it as Democrats defending. Always NE-2. republicans on offense in red territory. Yet, as I pointed out above, it’s the same scenario. Why does the media never discuss ME-2 and MAGA on defense with Dems on offense.
That isn't actually the map that worries me; based on the polls, this is:
Neither is SUPER likely but they're more likely than 0.2%. The probability of each state going a given way is not even; you would need to look at the probability of each individual electoral result.
But that's still not how it works. That's like saying there was a 1/117,600 chance of the 2020 map happening, or the 2016 map happening, or any map happening, or that there are equal odds of Kamala winning every state as of Kamala winning just barely.
Each state individually has its own odds; those odds then have to be factored into the odds of any given scenario occurring. The states/districts that are most relevant to the possibility of a split electoral college are the ones that are the closest in the polls; the odds of any given outcome have to be weighted against the odds of any given state, and consequently the odds of a split EC are much higher than .38%. They're not HIGH. But they're higher than that.
But that's still not how it works. That's like saying there was a 1/117,600 chance of the 2020 map happening, or the 2016 map happening, or any map happening, or that there are equal odds of Kamala winning every state as of Kamala winning just barely.
Each state individually has its own odds; those odds then have to be factored into the odds of any given scenario occurring. The states/districts that are most relevant to the possibility of a split electoral college are the ones that are the closest in the polls; the odds of any given outcome have to be weighted against the odds of any given state, and consequently the odds of a split EC are much higher than .38%. They're not HIGH. But they're higher than that.
So without doing alllll that math, what do you think? 3%? 5%?
But that's still not how it works. That's like saying there was a 1/117,600 chance of the 2020 map happening, or the 2016 map happening, or any map happening, or that there are equal odds of Kamala winning every state as of Kamala winning just barely.
Each state individually has its own odds; those odds then have to be factored into the odds of any given scenario occurring. The states/districts that are most relevant to the possibility of a split electoral college are the ones that are the closest in the polls; the odds of any given outcome have to be weighted against the odds of any given state, and consequently the odds of a split EC are much higher than .38%. They're not HIGH. But they're higher than that.
So without doing alllll that math, what do you think? 3%? 5%?
5-10%? I don’t think it’s likely but I don’t think anyone should be actually shocked as though it were borderline impossible if it happens. Because it is genuinely a fairly realistic outcome, looking at the polls in these states/districts - not the most likely, but not remotely close to impossible. Like it doesn’t require a poll to be more than 0.6% off anywhere.
But that's still not how it works. That's like saying there was a 1/117,600 chance of the 2020 map happening, or the 2016 map happening, or any map happening, or that there are equal odds of Kamala winning every state as of Kamala winning just barely.
Each state individually has its own odds; those odds then have to be factored into the odds of any given scenario occurring. The states/districts that are most relevant to the possibility of a split electoral college are the ones that are the closest in the polls; the odds of any given outcome have to be weighted against the odds of any given state, and consequently the odds of a split EC are much higher than .38%. They're not HIGH. But they're higher than that.
Your weighting would add hundredths of % points. It’s statistically insignificant. The combined percentage for those 2 scenarios would be something like .50% instead of the .38%.
Think about it. You literally want to change the weighting from 50/50 to roughly (eg) 51/49 across 9 separate variables (tossups).
There won’t be any wild variations in the weighting for each of the 9 variables (tossups) because…
For what it’s worth Nate Silver’s model has a .2 % chance of a tie. That doesn’t worry me too much, it’s the ~20% chance of Harris winning the popular but losing the electoral college that is keeping me up.
For what it’s worth Nate Silver’s model has a .2 % chance of a tie. That doesn’t worry me too much, it’s the ~20% chance of Harris winning the popular but losing the electoral college that is keeping me up.
Nate Silver saying there's a 20% chance? I wouldn't worry what he's cranking out...Dude is Peter Thiel's bitch boy, and it shows.
For what it’s worth Nate Silver’s model has a .2 % chance of a tie. That doesn’t worry me too much, it’s the ~20% chance of Harris winning the popular but losing the electoral college that is keeping me up.
Nate Silver saying there's a 20% chance? I wouldn't worry what he's cranking out...Dude is Peter Thiel's bitch boy, and it shows.
Fine, I don’t need to have this argument again.
Whatever your sources there are a lot of signs that things are not looking as good as we thought they were pre-convention. Hopefully the debate or whatever else changes that, but we are better off taking them seriously.
Nate Silver saying there's a 20% chance? I wouldn't worry what he's cranking out...Dude is Peter Thiel's bitch boy, and it shows.
Fine, I don’t need to have this argument again.
Whatever your sources there are a lot of signs that things are not looking as good as we thought they were pre-convention. Hopefully the debate or whatever else changes that, but we are better off taking them seriously.
It's pretty clear that the post-Biden-dropping-down high has ended. Now we're just kinda in no man's land of polling. It's extremely unlikely we go into the election up 4-8% in the polls like we did 4 and 8 years ago. Just have to A) work our asses off to turn out votes, and B) hope polling is not as off as it was in 2016/2022. Because that would be ugly.
Post by abefroman1 on Sept 9, 2024 11:08:30 GMT -5
Yeah it's pretty clear republicans have this in the bag thanks to propagranda and just general stupidity of the average American. I think he wins PA, GA, NC and AZ by 0.5-1.5%
For those worrying about polls, check this...270 To Win's Polling Map has moved Texas & Florida From "Red" to "Toss-Up," making this change tonight. As some of us have said in recent weeks, Florida is truly in play. But it's great to see that Texas is moving toward a possibility (still small, but it's plausible).
www.270towin.com/ ***Make sure to switch to Polling Map tab under Map Library, below the Map Color Pallette and Split Votes sections. Map is below too: